Admin wrote:I used to think that a horse who wins the TC automatically would win HOY. I'm not so sure of that. My finger in the wind tells me this could be a very unpopular TC winner and that voters will make another choice if they're given one. The problem is who would give them one with Shared Belief being out.
Very unpopular? You must only be focusing on the negativity. He's quite popular especially considering the dislike of Zayat by many. And the voters won't care about the some people that aren't fans. No TC winner since 1978, whoever does it next will be the HOTY especially a horse that was very good before the TC races. There are no Saint Liams or Ghostzappers this year to take the award away even if he only comes out with 2 of 3. Unless someone really puts in a string of good big races AP even without a win at Belmont in 2 weeks will be a serious contender for HOTY.
Didn't I just say that "the problem is who would give them one with Shared Belief being out"? So why repeat what I said while supposedly arguing different?
And of course I'm focusing on the negativity. Negativity this heavy has never existed with a horse going for the TC. And you're wrong that people don't care about the connections of a horse, particularly the voters, because many recognize that it's the people who are rewarded -- the horse couldn't possibly care less. When given two or more legitimate choices, you bet other factors besides the two horses -- because they're both legitimate choices -- come into play.
And there's no reason to argue this. We'll see or we won't. I'm not guaranteeing that the vote is going against a TC winner -- just stating the possibility. You on the other hand are guaranteeing that you're right, and frankly, you can't guarantee it.
So I got your point that you think I'm wrong. But you only think I am. We'll see or we won't. I'm guessing the odds are against both a TC happening and another horse sweeping all the Fall big races and demolishing the TC winner a time or two.