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Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 2:23 pm
by Hoist The Flag
Belmont Park - Saturday, October 5, 2013

Race 10 - 5:46 PM

Foxwoods Champagne S. (Grade I)

Purse $500,000. For Two Year Olds. One Mile.



PPHorseJockeyWgtTrainer
1 Casiguapo (KY) 2/C L Saez 122 M Morales
2 Ride On Curlin (KY) 2/C A O Solis 122 W G Gowan
3 Havana (KY) 2/C I Ortiz, Jr. 122 T A Pletcher
4 Debt Ceiling (KY) 2/C J Alvarado 122 J J Robb
5 Honor Code (KY) 2/C J Castellano 122 C R McGaughey III
6 Long On Value (VA) 2/C J Lezcano 122 W I Mott
7 Strong Mandate (KY) 2/C J L Ortiz 122 D W Lukas
8 Grand Arrival (KY) 2/C R Napravnik 122 N P Zito
9 Intense Holiday (KY) 2/C C P DeCarlo 122 T A Pletcher

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 3:48 pm
by BaroqueAgain1
Couple of pedigrees that really interest me here:
Honor Code, by A.P. Indy out of Serena's Cat (StormCat x Serena's Song).
Strong Mandate, by Tiznow out of G1-winner Clear Mandate. And he is her last foal, as we lost her to foaling complications in 2011. :(
They have both shown talent on the track, and their bloodlines indicate that they could get better in their sophomore season.

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:05 pm
by Kay16
Strong Mandate and Honor Code looked awesome in their last races on a muddy/sloppy track. I mean, especially Honor Code. His breeding, the race being his debut, his stride reminds me of Secretariat, I really hope he proves himself here!

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:07 pm
by Kay16
.

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:42 pm
by Miss Woodford
Debt Ceiling is interesting, I think he'll like the mile distance.

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:33 am
by thinair
Honor Code and Strong Mandate look like the likeliest winners, but Grand Arrival is OK. He's got a chance and could eventually be a solid 3YO.

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:25 pm
by serenassong
thinair wrote:Honor Code and Strong Mandate look like the likeliest winners, but Grand Arrival is OK. He's got a chance and could eventually be a solid 3YO.
I like all three here, but Honor Code is my top heartfelt choice for obvious reasons. And, being a half brother to Noble Tune is not to shabby- who has been off the radar as of late.

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:28 pm
by serenassong
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Couple of pedigrees that really interest me here:
Honor Code, by A.P. Indy out of Serena's Cat (StormCat x Serena's Song).Strong Mandate, by Tiznow out of G1-winner Clear Mandate. And he is her last foal, as we lost her to foaling complications in 2011. :(
They have both shown talent on the track, and their bloodlines indicate that they could get better in their sophomore season.
Well- you are almost right, but an easy mistake to make- Serena's Cat is indeed by Storm Cat but her dam is Serena's Tune first foal of Serena's Song :)

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:18 pm
by BaroqueAgain1
My oops...but I think also a Bloodhorse oops, because I swear I checked her profile before I posted. If I misread it, double oops.
:oops:

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:22 pm
by serenassong
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:My oops...but I think also a Bloodhorse oops, because I swear I checked her profile before I posted. If I misread it, double oops.
:oops:
That actually could very well be, because when Noble Tune won the American Turf Stakes , and reading the BH article, it did have that info in it. I contacted them and they did correct it at that point- but perhaps it needs a correction again.

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:18 pm
by tcw
Really looking forward to this race. Strong Mandate looks like the real deal and the one to beat in here. He's a big, strong colt that should only get better with more distance and age given his pedigree. Otherwise, Havana owns the best BSF with a 102, and Honor Code came from some 20+ lengths back in the slop/mud to win impressively last out.

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 7:34 am
by peeptoad
One of the two heavy favorites should win this. As a bomb I like Ride On Curlin... but probably only for 3rd. I would probably bet against Honor Code, but hard to get a read off one race. If he breaks slowly again, on a fast track I'm not sure he can pull it off. It is tempting to think of him as the second coming, but in reality the chances of that are pretty slim. Given the off track conditions of his first race and at a short price he's a play against for me. On the other hand, most of these guys haven't sorted themselves out yet, so he could wind up being the class. He and Strong Mandate do stand out on paper, but I prefer the latter. Probably going to pass on this race anyway since 2yo races are not my strong point. The Jamaica is a much better 'capping race.

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:16 am
by thinair
peeptoad wrote:One of the two heavy favorites should win this. As a bomb I like Ride On Curlin... but probably only for 3rd. I would probably bet against Honor Code, but hard to get a read off one race. If he breaks slowly again, on a fast track I'm not sure he can pull it off. It is tempting to think of him as the second coming, but in reality the chances of that are pretty slim. Given the off track conditions of his first race and at a short price he's a play against for me. On the other hand, most of these guys haven't sorted themselves out yet, so he could wind up being the class. He and Strong Mandate do stand out on paper, but I prefer the latter. Probably going to pass on this race anyway since 2yo races are not my strong point. The Jamaica is a much better 'capping race.

Their cannot be two seperate betting interests that are also " heavy favorites " in a race.

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:33 am
by peeptoad
thinair wrote:
peeptoad wrote:One of the two heavy favorites should win this. As a bomb I like Ride On Curlin... but probably only for 3rd. I would probably bet against Honor Code, but hard to get a read off one race. If he breaks slowly again, on a fast track I'm not sure he can pull it off. It is tempting to think of him as the second coming, but in reality the chances of that are pretty slim. Given the off track conditions of his first race and at a short price he's a play against for me. On the other hand, most of these guys haven't sorted themselves out yet, so he could wind up being the class. He and Strong Mandate do stand out on paper, but I prefer the latter. Probably going to pass on this race anyway since 2yo races are not my strong point. The Jamaica is a much better 'capping race.

Their cannot be two seperate betting interests that are also " heavy favorites " in a race.
I think both of them will get bet heavily... how's that genius?

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:21 am
by thinair
peeptoad wrote: I think both of them will get bet heavily... how's that genius?
Not particularly helpful either. Thanks.

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:41 am
by thinair
peeptoad wrote:
thinair wrote:
peeptoad wrote:One of the two heavy favorites should win this. As a bomb I like Ride On Curlin... but probably only for 3rd. I would probably bet against Honor Code, but hard to get a read off one race. If he breaks slowly again, on a fast track I'm not sure he can pull it off. It is tempting to think of him as the second coming, but in reality the chances of that are pretty slim. Given the off track conditions of his first race and at a short price he's a play against for me. On the other hand, most of these guys haven't sorted themselves out yet, so he could wind up being the class. He and Strong Mandate do stand out on paper, but I prefer the latter. Probably going to pass on this race anyway since 2yo races are not my strong point. The Jamaica is a much better 'capping race.

Their cannot be two seperate betting interests that are also " heavy favorites " in a race.
I think both of them will get bet heavily... how's that genius?

All kidding aside, there are actually three horses in the Champagne, Strong Mandate, Honor Code, and Havana, that are close on the Morning Line, and could conceivably take a similar amount of money. Your analysis completely omits Havana. I don't love his chances either, but you talk about this as if it is pretty much a two horse race going in, and that is hardly the way either the Morning Line makes it, or the likely betting will say as well. Havana is a highly touted Todd Pletcher 2YO that ran a triple digit Beyer fig in his debut, the fastest of anybody in the race, which makes me wonder how he can be completely dismissed by anyone.

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:45 am
by thinair
Also, Honor Code didn't " break slowly " in his debut. He has no speed, but he broke with the field.

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:48 am
by Somnambulist
thinair wrote:All kidding aside, there are actually three horses in the Champagne, Strong Mandate, Honor Code, and Havana, that are close on the Morning Line, and could conceivably take a similar amount of money. Your analysis completely omits Havana. I don't love his chances either, but you talk about this as if it is pretty much a two horse race going in, and that is hardly the way either the Morning Line makes it, or the likely betting will say as well. Havana is a highly touted Todd Pletcher 2YO that ran a triple digit Beyer fig in his debut, the fastest of anybody in the race, which makes me wonder how he can be completely dismissed by anyone.
At least from a media and hype machine standpoint, the others are surprisingly much more flashy than the Pletcher. Makes me think I might stand some chance at getting a decent price on him, but it's hard to gauge that off internet speak.

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:55 am
by peeptoad
Well, thinair I'd tell you to fuck off, but it's payday Friday, so...

Re: Champagne Stakes (G1)

Posted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:55 am
by thinair
Somnambulist wrote:
thinair wrote:All kidding aside, there are actually three horses in the Champagne, Strong Mandate, Honor Code, and Havana, that are close on the Morning Line, and could conceivably take a similar amount of money. Your analysis completely omits Havana. I don't love his chances either, but you talk about this as if it is pretty much a two horse race going in, and that is hardly the way either the Morning Line makes it, or the likely betting will say as well. Havana is a highly touted Todd Pletcher 2YO that ran a triple digit Beyer fig in his debut, the fastest of anybody in the race, which makes me wonder how he can be completely dismissed by anyone.
At least from a media and hype machine standpoint, the others are surprisingly much more flashy than the Pletcher. Makes me think I might stand some chance at getting a decent price on him, but it's hard to gauge that off internet speak.

You might be right, but it's funny how smart the money can be sometimes in these races. Havana does feel like he will be the relatively forgotten one of the three....but when he's the 9:5 favorite, and Strong Mandate gets lost in the betting, I won't be shocked either. It's very hard to read sometimes. The money also seems to be correct with a high frequency, at least as far as horses being seemingly underbet, in that they also usually underperform.