Champagne Stakes (G1)

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Hoist The Flag
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Wed Oct 02, 2013 2:23 pm

Belmont Park - Saturday, October 5, 2013

Race 10 - 5:46 PM

Foxwoods Champagne S. (Grade I)

Purse $500,000. For Two Year Olds. One Mile.



PPHorseJockeyWgtTrainer
1 Casiguapo (KY) 2/C L Saez 122 M Morales
2 Ride On Curlin (KY) 2/C A O Solis 122 W G Gowan
3 Havana (KY) 2/C I Ortiz, Jr. 122 T A Pletcher
4 Debt Ceiling (KY) 2/C J Alvarado 122 J J Robb
5 Honor Code (KY) 2/C J Castellano 122 C R McGaughey III
6 Long On Value (VA) 2/C J Lezcano 122 W I Mott
7 Strong Mandate (KY) 2/C J L Ortiz 122 D W Lukas
8 Grand Arrival (KY) 2/C R Napravnik 122 N P Zito
9 Intense Holiday (KY) 2/C C P DeCarlo 122 T A Pletcher
Hoist the Flag was the best horse I ever rode, by far... It wasn't Seattle Slew.
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BaroqueAgain1
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Wed Oct 02, 2013 3:48 pm

Couple of pedigrees that really interest me here:
Honor Code, by A.P. Indy out of Serena's Cat (StormCat x Serena's Song).
Strong Mandate, by Tiznow out of G1-winner Clear Mandate. And he is her last foal, as we lost her to foaling complications in 2011. :(
They have both shown talent on the track, and their bloodlines indicate that they could get better in their sophomore season.
Kay16
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Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:05 pm

Strong Mandate and Honor Code looked awesome in their last races on a muddy/sloppy track. I mean, especially Honor Code. His breeding, the race being his debut, his stride reminds me of Secretariat, I really hope he proves himself here!
Last edited by Kay16 on Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Kay16
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Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:07 pm

.
Last edited by Kay16 on Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Miss Woodford
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Wed Oct 02, 2013 6:42 pm

Debt Ceiling is interesting, I think he'll like the mile distance.
thinair
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Thu Oct 03, 2013 11:33 am

Honor Code and Strong Mandate look like the likeliest winners, but Grand Arrival is OK. He's got a chance and could eventually be a solid 3YO.
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serenassong
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Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:25 pm

thinair wrote:Honor Code and Strong Mandate look like the likeliest winners, but Grand Arrival is OK. He's got a chance and could eventually be a solid 3YO.
I like all three here, but Honor Code is my top heartfelt choice for obvious reasons. And, being a half brother to Noble Tune is not to shabby- who has been off the radar as of late.
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serenassong
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Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:28 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Couple of pedigrees that really interest me here:
Honor Code, by A.P. Indy out of Serena's Cat (StormCat x Serena's Song).Strong Mandate, by Tiznow out of G1-winner Clear Mandate. And he is her last foal, as we lost her to foaling complications in 2011. :(
They have both shown talent on the track, and their bloodlines indicate that they could get better in their sophomore season.
Well- you are almost right, but an easy mistake to make- Serena's Cat is indeed by Storm Cat but her dam is Serena's Tune first foal of Serena's Song :)
"I reject your reality, and substitute my own!"- Mythbusters
"Oh, What fresh Hell is this?!"- Sheldon Cooper(quoted from Dorothy Parker)- Big Bang Theory
"Sometimes I think he's the King of Stupid" - Old Man- Pawn Stars
BaroqueAgain1
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Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:18 pm

My oops...but I think also a Bloodhorse oops, because I swear I checked her profile before I posted. If I misread it, double oops.
:oops:
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serenassong
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Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:22 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:My oops...but I think also a Bloodhorse oops, because I swear I checked her profile before I posted. If I misread it, double oops.
:oops:
That actually could very well be, because when Noble Tune won the American Turf Stakes , and reading the BH article, it did have that info in it. I contacted them and they did correct it at that point- but perhaps it needs a correction again.
"I reject your reality, and substitute my own!"- Mythbusters
"Oh, What fresh Hell is this?!"- Sheldon Cooper(quoted from Dorothy Parker)- Big Bang Theory
"Sometimes I think he's the King of Stupid" - Old Man- Pawn Stars
tcw
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Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:18 pm

Really looking forward to this race. Strong Mandate looks like the real deal and the one to beat in here. He's a big, strong colt that should only get better with more distance and age given his pedigree. Otherwise, Havana owns the best BSF with a 102, and Honor Code came from some 20+ lengths back in the slop/mud to win impressively last out.
peeptoad
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Fri Oct 04, 2013 7:34 am

One of the two heavy favorites should win this. As a bomb I like Ride On Curlin... but probably only for 3rd. I would probably bet against Honor Code, but hard to get a read off one race. If he breaks slowly again, on a fast track I'm not sure he can pull it off. It is tempting to think of him as the second coming, but in reality the chances of that are pretty slim. Given the off track conditions of his first race and at a short price he's a play against for me. On the other hand, most of these guys haven't sorted themselves out yet, so he could wind up being the class. He and Strong Mandate do stand out on paper, but I prefer the latter. Probably going to pass on this race anyway since 2yo races are not my strong point. The Jamaica is a much better 'capping race.
thinair
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Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:16 am

peeptoad wrote:One of the two heavy favorites should win this. As a bomb I like Ride On Curlin... but probably only for 3rd. I would probably bet against Honor Code, but hard to get a read off one race. If he breaks slowly again, on a fast track I'm not sure he can pull it off. It is tempting to think of him as the second coming, but in reality the chances of that are pretty slim. Given the off track conditions of his first race and at a short price he's a play against for me. On the other hand, most of these guys haven't sorted themselves out yet, so he could wind up being the class. He and Strong Mandate do stand out on paper, but I prefer the latter. Probably going to pass on this race anyway since 2yo races are not my strong point. The Jamaica is a much better 'capping race.

Their cannot be two seperate betting interests that are also " heavy favorites " in a race.
peeptoad
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Fri Oct 04, 2013 9:33 am

thinair wrote:
peeptoad wrote:One of the two heavy favorites should win this. As a bomb I like Ride On Curlin... but probably only for 3rd. I would probably bet against Honor Code, but hard to get a read off one race. If he breaks slowly again, on a fast track I'm not sure he can pull it off. It is tempting to think of him as the second coming, but in reality the chances of that are pretty slim. Given the off track conditions of his first race and at a short price he's a play against for me. On the other hand, most of these guys haven't sorted themselves out yet, so he could wind up being the class. He and Strong Mandate do stand out on paper, but I prefer the latter. Probably going to pass on this race anyway since 2yo races are not my strong point. The Jamaica is a much better 'capping race.

Their cannot be two seperate betting interests that are also " heavy favorites " in a race.
I think both of them will get bet heavily... how's that genius?
thinair
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Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:21 am

peeptoad wrote: I think both of them will get bet heavily... how's that genius?
Not particularly helpful either. Thanks.
thinair
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Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:41 am

peeptoad wrote:
thinair wrote:
peeptoad wrote:One of the two heavy favorites should win this. As a bomb I like Ride On Curlin... but probably only for 3rd. I would probably bet against Honor Code, but hard to get a read off one race. If he breaks slowly again, on a fast track I'm not sure he can pull it off. It is tempting to think of him as the second coming, but in reality the chances of that are pretty slim. Given the off track conditions of his first race and at a short price he's a play against for me. On the other hand, most of these guys haven't sorted themselves out yet, so he could wind up being the class. He and Strong Mandate do stand out on paper, but I prefer the latter. Probably going to pass on this race anyway since 2yo races are not my strong point. The Jamaica is a much better 'capping race.

Their cannot be two seperate betting interests that are also " heavy favorites " in a race.
I think both of them will get bet heavily... how's that genius?

All kidding aside, there are actually three horses in the Champagne, Strong Mandate, Honor Code, and Havana, that are close on the Morning Line, and could conceivably take a similar amount of money. Your analysis completely omits Havana. I don't love his chances either, but you talk about this as if it is pretty much a two horse race going in, and that is hardly the way either the Morning Line makes it, or the likely betting will say as well. Havana is a highly touted Todd Pletcher 2YO that ran a triple digit Beyer fig in his debut, the fastest of anybody in the race, which makes me wonder how he can be completely dismissed by anyone.
thinair
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Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:45 am

Also, Honor Code didn't " break slowly " in his debut. He has no speed, but he broke with the field.
Somnambulist
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Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:48 am

thinair wrote:All kidding aside, there are actually three horses in the Champagne, Strong Mandate, Honor Code, and Havana, that are close on the Morning Line, and could conceivably take a similar amount of money. Your analysis completely omits Havana. I don't love his chances either, but you talk about this as if it is pretty much a two horse race going in, and that is hardly the way either the Morning Line makes it, or the likely betting will say as well. Havana is a highly touted Todd Pletcher 2YO that ran a triple digit Beyer fig in his debut, the fastest of anybody in the race, which makes me wonder how he can be completely dismissed by anyone.
At least from a media and hype machine standpoint, the others are surprisingly much more flashy than the Pletcher. Makes me think I might stand some chance at getting a decent price on him, but it's hard to gauge that off internet speak.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
peeptoad
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Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:55 am

Well, thinair I'd tell you to fuck off, but it's payday Friday, so...
thinair
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Fri Oct 04, 2013 11:55 am

Somnambulist wrote:
thinair wrote:All kidding aside, there are actually three horses in the Champagne, Strong Mandate, Honor Code, and Havana, that are close on the Morning Line, and could conceivably take a similar amount of money. Your analysis completely omits Havana. I don't love his chances either, but you talk about this as if it is pretty much a two horse race going in, and that is hardly the way either the Morning Line makes it, or the likely betting will say as well. Havana is a highly touted Todd Pletcher 2YO that ran a triple digit Beyer fig in his debut, the fastest of anybody in the race, which makes me wonder how he can be completely dismissed by anyone.
At least from a media and hype machine standpoint, the others are surprisingly much more flashy than the Pletcher. Makes me think I might stand some chance at getting a decent price on him, but it's hard to gauge that off internet speak.

You might be right, but it's funny how smart the money can be sometimes in these races. Havana does feel like he will be the relatively forgotten one of the three....but when he's the 9:5 favorite, and Strong Mandate gets lost in the betting, I won't be shocked either. It's very hard to read sometimes. The money also seems to be correct with a high frequency, at least as far as horses being seemingly underbet, in that they also usually underperform.
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