Breeders' Cup Top 5

Kennedy
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Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:06 pm

I suppose we have to start filling this place with content again.

Here are some of my thoughts on the BC at present. I'll try to fill in some analysis as I have time but for now it's just top 5's for each race. If anyone else has some top 5's or just some BC opinions this would be a good place to add them.

September

Classic
Game On Dude
Cross Traffic
Fort Larned
Palace Malice
Graydar

If it wasn't for last year's Classic my confidence in Game on Dude would be sky high. For some reason that effort keeps the doubts alive and makes this list more than just a formality. Game On Dude is the horse to beat and no one else has been at his level this year. The main concerns will be does he still have this kind of form when it matters and what will happen when he once again faces really good quality speed. I am wondering if Baffert will try to go straight to the Classic with him this time instead of taking on the race formerly known as the Goodwood.

The rest of the horses in this division have rarely if ever shown the talent necessary to beat Game on Dude but he could always regress and they could always have that magical day when it counts the most. The one thing I'm not going to put much stock into is the late closers. It's probably beneficial to have one late closer in the mix but it's really hard to come from deep at SA in a route race.

Turf
The Fugue
Mukhadram
Hillstar
Big Blue Kitten
Real Solution

This division is a total muddle. A healthy Point of Entry would be close to a lock. The Fugue is a very good horse but beatable. The others on my list are not as good but have at least shown flashes of the type of form that will be necessary.

Mile
Wise Dan
Obviously
Toronado
Moonlight Cloud
Declaration of War

Obviously has been very good this year but Wise Dan has once again been better. It'll be a good matchup between them but Dan holds the edge. Toronado is the only one in Europe that I'd be worried about but his barn has a terrible shipping record to the US.

Sprint
Sahara Sky
Trinniberg
Fast Bullet
Justin Phillip
Forty Tales

The Sprint is looking more and more like a race that should over subscribe and you would be unwise to write off the chances of any entrant. This just isn't a really fast group so the playing field is just about level. I'm not going to spend too much time thinking about this race until the field actually takes shape.

Dirt Mile
Paynter
Liaison
Moreno
Goldencents
Rail Trip

Who will run here? It's the constant question. One thing I will be doing is focusing on the horses who are decent going longer and are cutting back to this race. I don't like the stretch-out sprinters in this configuration. Goldencents is an interesting case because he is proving himself to be quite adept at anything. I think this will be an exciting contest but it's still hard to get a real hold of any contender in this race. Could Paynter win? Sure but he's a bit hit or miss and right now looks much worse that I expected him to. Liaison has suffered a real dip in form lately but at his best is capable.

Distaff
Royal Delta
Princess of Sylmar
Authenticity
On Fire Baby
Close Hatches

FM Turf
The Fugue
Marketing Mix
Sajjhaa
Winsili
Tiz Flirtatious

FM Sprint
Groupie Doll
Book Review
Dance to Bristol
Beholder
Reneesgotzip

Turf Sprint
Chips All In
Unbridled's Note
Summer Front
Society Rock
Dimension

Marathon
Sky Kingdom
Ever Rider
All Squared Away
Oilisblackgold
Atigun

Juvenile

Strong Mandate
Honor Code
Havana
Can the Man
In Trouble

Juvenile Fillies
Sweet Reason
Stopchargingmaria
Untapable
She's a Tiger
Fascinating

Juv Turf

No Nay Never
Diamond Bachelor
Bashart
Solitary Ranger
General Jack
Last edited by Kennedy on Mon Sep 16, 2013 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Ballerina
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Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:29 pm

Slideshow - 2013 Breeders Cup Challenge Winners

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/ ... ge-winners

Not Top 5 - just some additional -


Turf
Gold Ship
Vagabond Shoes
Novellist
Ordak Dan

Sprint
Bahamian Squall
Fed Biz

Dirt Mile
Centralintelligence

Distaff
Lady of Fifty

Turf Sprint
Points Offthebench
Jwala

Juvenile
Cleburne
peeptoad
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Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:32 am

Just FYI I think Sahara Sky will miss the BC. He had some kind of setback and is not even expected to resume training until the end of the month. Division seems wide open this year.... a horse like Bahamian Squall might be a good early bet on a speed-favoring strip like SA.

edit: Here is my current top 5 for the Classic:
1. Game On Dude
2. Fort Larned
3. Palace Malice
4. Flat Out
5. Orb
radar: Mucho Macho Man, Graydar, Successful Dan, Kettle Corn

I do not think Cross Traffic has any real chance of getting 10F against top company
Kay16
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Fri Sep 13, 2013 6:54 pm

Princess of Sylmar seems very unlikely at this point to go to the Distaff. Kennedy, do you believe they will go or just didn't realize she was unlikely? I also don't think you'll be seeing Beholder in the F&M Sprint, they are pointing to the Distaff and I haven't seen any indication for other wise.

Is Graydar going to be ready for the Classic?
Senator L
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Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:29 pm

Dank winner of the Beverly D is suppose to
come back for the BC and she'll be tough
No one has ever bet enough on a winning horse.
Richard Sasuly
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Ballerina
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Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:42 pm

Senator L wrote:Dank winner of the Beverly D is suppose to
come back for the BC and she'll be tough
Filly & Mare Turf
mimi6920
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Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:38 pm

I love to read the lists and analysis. Keep it coming!
BlindLucky
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Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:44 pm

I'm wondering if Reneesgotzip will try the Turf Sprint against the boys again, since she was third in it last year. Honestly, it would seem a softer spot than heading to the dirt against Groupie Doll and Dance to Bristol.
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Gallorette
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Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:41 am

BlindLucky wrote:I'm wondering if Reneesgotzip will try the Turf Sprint against the boys again, since she was third in it last year. Honestly, it would seem a softer spot than heading to the dirt against Groupie Doll and Dance to Bristol.
I believe her trainer said he was leaning toward the Turf Sprint after her last race, although it sounds like they're keeping their options open.
Somnambulist

Sat Sep 14, 2013 10:49 am

They're pointing Verrazano towards the Dirt Mile.. I think he would be very formidable there.

I'd be so excited if they tried him on turf.. especially since he's already got two G1s on the main.
Kay16
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Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:10 am

Somnambulist wrote:They're pointing Verrazano towards the Dirt Mile.. I think he would be very formidable there.

I'd be so excited if they tried him on turf.. especially since he's already got two G1s on the main.
I think with the way the field looks to be aligning so far, they'll have a hard time catching him.
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Ballerina
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Sat Sep 14, 2013 11:45 am

Kay16 wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:They're pointing Verrazano towards the Dirt Mile.. I think he would be very formidable there.

I'd be so excited if they tried him on turf.. especially since he's already got two G1s on the main.
I think with the way the field looks to be aligning so far, they'll have a hard time catching him.
Don't overlook Moreno at this distance. However, it's strange that no work has been listed for him for the past month. Is it definite he's going to the PA Derby? Moreno, that is.
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Prairie Bayou
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Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:05 pm

I think for the Classic I would go with:

Game On Dude (naturally)
Orb (I think he has the ability)
Flat Out
Palace Malice
Mucho Macho Man

I will go out on a limb and throw in Will Take Charge. ;D
"AND ALYSHEBA AMERICA'S HORSE HAS DONE IT!!!" ~ Tom Durkin 1988 Breeder's Cup Classic
Kay16
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Sat Sep 14, 2013 12:29 pm

Ballerina wrote:
Kay16 wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:They're pointing Verrazano towards the Dirt Mile.. I think he would be very formidable there.

I'd be so excited if they tried him on turf.. especially since he's already got two G1s on the main.
I think with the way the field looks to be aligning so far, they'll have a hard time catching him.
Don't overlook Moreno at this distance. However, it's strange that no work has been listed for him for the past month. Is it definite he's going to the PA Derby? Moreno, that is.
Moreno has done better against the top of the 3 year old crop like PM, WTC, and Orb. But Verrazano, going 1 1/8 or under, on a speed favoring type of track...he's a monster. Moreno has looked good in his past 3 races, but I don't see him catching Verrazano if Verrazano gets his track and his trip.
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dustino140
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Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:57 am

Verrazano may well prove the best bet against of Breeders' Cup weekend.
Somnambulist

Sun Sep 15, 2013 12:14 pm

dustino140 wrote:Verrazano may well prove the best bet against of Breeders' Cup weekend.
He could be, but it's really hard to say one way or the other some 3 months out.

But not discussing these things is boring.
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dustino140
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Sun Sep 15, 2013 12:26 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
dustino140 wrote:Verrazano may well prove the best bet against of Breeders' Cup weekend.
He could be, but it's really hard to say one way or the other some 3 months out.

But not discussing these things is boring.
I am breaching my own "I don't handicap races that aren't run for a few months" rule. However, football doesn't start for 40 minutes, Presque's first post is 5 hours away, and I'm bored.

With that said, the Dirt Mile is a fascinating race that is so often mis-wagered. Track configuration alone can make half of the field a play against. Verrazano getting a 60+ day layoff into the race, coupled with his history of no-show performances anytime he faces decent horses, just don't make him attractive to me. I like the horse, but the Pletcher hype machine is overboard with him.
Kennedy
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Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:41 am

Kay16 wrote:Princess of Sylmar seems very unlikely at this point to go to the Distaff. Kennedy, do you believe they will go or just didn't realize she was unlikely? I also don't think you'll be seeing Beholder in the F&M Sprint, they are pointing to the Distaff and I haven't seen any indication for other wise.

Is Graydar going to be ready for the Classic?
I kind of suspect that Princess of Sylmar will show up at the BC if she stays healthy but of course that remains to be seen. There are going to be a lot of horses pulling out over the next two months. It always happens.

I do hope that Graydar will be ready for the Classic. He has been working steadily and I think Pletcher will find a spot for him soon.

As for Sahara Sky I have heard the rumors and he hasn't had a work in a month but I also tend to give sprinters a bit more leeway because I don't think that their preparation has to be quite as stout. If he could start working within the next week he could be ready. Now having said that he may not start working. I also wrote this list on the first Tuesday of September and just re-posted it here after the crash. Two weeks ago it seemed more likely that he would be working by late Sept than it does at this moment.
Kennedy
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Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:48 am

Verrazano actually does fit the two turn mile profile pretty well but like Dustin I have grave concerns about his ability to handle top horses. He has consistently come up short when the pressure has been on.

Moreno on the other hand seems like a really good one in the making. I would not be surprised to see him develop into a dominant horse with a bit more time. Perhaps next year or as a 5yo. I hope they give him that time and he can stay healthy. He's fast and he's tough and he seems to get better each time he runs.

There have been some comments about Dank for the FM Turf. Personally I don't rate her chances that highly. SA is a totally different course than Arlington and I suspect Dank will find it more difficult. Marketing Mix was blown away that day but I think we'll see her doing much better at SA. The course configuration plays a big part and it's one of the reasons that I really like Sajjhaa if she comes. She has proven form in top class races on firm tracks and doesn't seem to mind tighter tracks either.
Kennedy
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Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:52 am

BlindLucky wrote:I'm wondering if Reneesgotzip will try the Turf Sprint against the boys again, since she was third in it last year. Honestly, it would seem a softer spot than heading to the dirt against Groupie Doll and Dance to Bristol.
I know her trainer mentioned the Turf Sprint but the glory is much greater in the FM Sprint and despite the level of competition I think she'll show up there. Her connections have never shied away from a challenge. She even took on the boys last year. I actually think that losing her to the Sprint is a bigger danger than losing her to the Turf Sprint. She can act on turf but she's a main track horse and she's a main track horse that will be tough to catch if she's in form on BC day.
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