betting "ALL"

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TapitsGal
Posts: 1041
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:03 pm

Fri Apr 25, 2014 7:09 am

smart choice or not so smart for a race like the Derby?or the Oaks?
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Oldowan
Posts: 303
Joined: Sun Oct 06, 2013 9:29 pm

Fri Apr 25, 2014 7:35 am

It sure worked for the guy who sat behind me at the Arkansas Derby--though in the end maybe not, because I think he bet "all" in every single race.
Rick1323
Posts: 850
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:00 pm

Fri Apr 25, 2014 7:58 am

I no longer bet much on the Derby for two reasons....I hate Churchill and I suck at picking Derby winners. So I generally make just a couple of bets. A few Oaks/Derby doubles....then on the Derby itself I will pick one horse and wheel it for first and second in an exacta.
Everyone come home sound.....
Somnambulist

Fri Apr 25, 2014 8:41 am

In a 20 field horse I would think this could be one of the most economically unwise things you could do. In this year's Oaks, since I think two horses are just that much better than everyone else, I would say this is definitely one of the most economically unwise things you can do.

You should think of betting as a way of minimizing your input and maximing your output. There are horses you can toss in both fields. No reason to really ever play all, unless the field is deeply competitive and you're playing a P3 or P4, or make bank. It's just not cost saavy and it's more likely a low priced horse comes in before a longshot.

So in short, if you make 10 mil a year, go for it.
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dustino140
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Fri Apr 25, 2014 9:03 am

What is the context? Win wagering? 4th spot in Superfecta wagering? Pick 3 wagering?

Generally, it isn't smart. You're going to invest a ton of money in a ticket with 'All' that is a) likely going to prohibit you from going deep in other legs, and b) could probably be pared down by not including 'no hopers.' If they beat you, they beat you. So be it.

Say you're looking at a Pick 4 ending in the Derby and you want to go 3 deep in the first 3 legs (a relatively conservative look given the traditional power of those fields). Your Pick 4 (at minimum cost) is $270. Not completely cost prohibitive, but keep in mind that you're only covered to about 30% of the horses in those first 3 races in that scenario. Your Pick 4, if you pick your 6 favorite Derby horses, costs $81 in that same scenario.

Ultimately, the only time I really advocate using an All button is a smaller field (7-9 horses) where you can make an equal case for 5+ of the runners. In a race like this year's Derby, I don't think you need to go 19 or 20 deep to find your winner, but that's just me.
Rick1323
Posts: 850
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:00 pm

Fri Apr 25, 2014 9:10 am

I'm hopeless in this race, which is why I make one small "up and back" exacta bet. I think my last Derby winner was Big Brown and the one before that may have been Secretariat. So I make a small bet for "interest". I no longer even include the Derby in any large horizontal bets, and I do bet the under card pretty heavily.

In general I do agree that cutting the number of horses you include is critical to money management, but in some cases handicapping is a waste of time.....which would be me in the Derby.
Everyone come home sound.....
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Ridan_Remembered
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Fri Apr 25, 2014 10:24 am

Rick1323 wrote:I'm hopeless in this race, which is why I make one small "up and back" exacta bet. I think my last Derby winner was Big Brown and the one before that may have been Secretariat.
Betting Red that day was smart. After his loss in the Wood, Secretariat didn't seem like the Super Horse, plus Bold Ruler had a rep for not siring horses who could go routes. The '73 Derby had an exciting up-and-comer named Forego. Sham looked wonderful and was training great. Angle Light, the Wood winner, was in the race, and the Derby also drew the very fast Shecky Greene. So on paper before that Derby, plenty of people thought Red could be beaten.
horsefan
Posts: 88
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2013 11:18 am

Fri Apr 25, 2014 11:16 am

I have done really well betting the ALL button in open races, by keying a horse over/under in an exacta. I have also successfully used it in the Oak/Derby doubles. I have often keyed 2 horses on top of my tri's and supers with ALL on the bottom. If I look at the Sheets and any horse can win the race, it makes sense. Also, I have initially used the ALL button, but then would throw out a horse or two with no shot.
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larrythek
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Location: Los Angeles / San Francisco

Fri Apr 25, 2014 1:14 pm

There is but 1 race in America that consistently pays 30-100x more in the Superfecta (dollar for dollar) compared to the trifecta. The most lopsided year was 2007..If you feel strong about a 5 horse tri box ($60) there are 15 horses left to play that could come in 4th. That would be $900 more or $960 for a Tri and Super ticket. That $960 Tri/Super ticket split among 3 friends or associates is $320. I rarely play Pick 6s or Supers..This is one race that I do..


2007 Kentucky Derby Trifecta $1 Paid $220

Street Sense
Hard Spun
Curlin

$1 TRIFECTA $220

==============

Street Sense
Hard Spun
Curlin
Imawildandcrazyguy

$1 Superfecta $22,000
Matt Converse
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Location: San Francisco

Fri Apr 25, 2014 4:11 pm

It's OK if you don't like the favorites to run 1sr or 2nd, and have just one horse you like and are unsure of 2nd. Sarava-ALL Belmont exacta was my best use of it. For the Derby, it's tough because ALL is so pricey. I usually feel like using it but in the end instead use maybe 10 horses in the spot instead of all if there are some I feel have no chance.
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Ballerina
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Location: Chesapeake, VA & Saratoga, NY

Fri Apr 25, 2014 4:14 pm

I have a friend who has bet $2 on all in every Derby since 2009. So far, she's won $10.40.
Matt Converse
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Location: San Francisco

Fri Apr 25, 2014 8:02 pm

TapitsGal wrote:smart choice or not so smart for a race like the Derby?or the Oaks?
It really depends how you are using it and your thoughts on the race. I'm not a fan of it for my Derby trifectas because it costs so much. If I felt confident Danza would win with ease and liked Chrome, Hopper & Wicked Strong for 2nd and thought a longshot might run 3rd, I wouldn't use all. For a $1 tri that would cost: 1x3x18=$54. I'd rather just use the 10 horses I like best for 3rd (1x3x10=$30) and use that $24 on horses I actually like in other tris, supers or exactas. I've hit a few ALL bets but generally am not a fan of betting on horses I don't like.
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