Search found 1056 matches

by Kennedy
Tue May 01, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby contender thoughts
Replies: 74
Views: 9751

Re: Derby contender thoughts

Don't get this on Flameaway though...how isn't he fast enough? If they lose it'll be because.... He’s just not fast enough. A key stat that supports their chances The projected 10f time he achieved in the Sam Davis (2:00.64) was bettered only by Mendelssohn and Audible this entire TC trail. For me ...
by Kennedy
Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby contender thoughts
Replies: 74
Views: 9751

Re: Derby contender thoughts

Lots of wonderful stuff, Kennedy. Your fingers must be due for a break. :lol: Enticed: Love his pedigree and his trainer, but his high knee action keeps making me think he would be better on turf. It does make me wonder. How many horses in this race are ultimately very good turf horses that we just...
by Kennedy
Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby contender thoughts
Replies: 74
Views: 9751

Re: Derby contender thoughts

My Boy Jack In order to win this horse has to... Catch a wet track and a good pace. If they lose it'll be because.... He doesn’t actually stay 10f despite being a closer A key stat that supports their chances He has the greatest number of career starts in the field. So did California Chrome, Exagge...
by Kennedy
Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby contender thoughts
Replies: 74
Views: 9751

Re: Derby contender thoughts

Instilled Regard In order to win this horse has to... Like so many others I think he needs to catch a fast pace to win but he also needs to get himself a little nearer to the action. I don’t think he can close a lot of ground. If they lose it'll be because.... He’s not likely to find himself among ...
by Kennedy
Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby contender thoughts
Replies: 74
Views: 9751

Re: Derby contender thoughts

Firenze Fire In order to win this horse has to... It’s very hard for me to imagine a scenario where he wins. I think he’d be every bit as unexpected as Mine That Bird. I think he needs to perform better than he has ever hinted at and perhaps needs some kind of factor that prevents others from runni...
by Kennedy
Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby contender thoughts
Replies: 74
Views: 9751

Re: Derby contender thoughts

Audible In order to win this horse has to... Get within 2 lengths of the front by the time the field straightens out If they lose it'll be because.... I think traffic should be the main concern from his connections. Or he just isn’t as good as Justify A key stat that supports their chances Audible ...
by Kennedy
Mon Apr 30, 2018 3:13 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby contender thoughts
Replies: 74
Views: 9751

Derby contender thoughts

I know we have a ton of threads on the topic but I thought that one that is just focused on our opinions about the chances of each Derby entrant might be a useful addition.
by Kennedy
Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:33 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby Point Races 2018
Replies: 692
Views: 68595

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

For anyone who cares you can see a handy reference chart for the 20-20 system throughout it's existence by clicking on the link below. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lfAtLlKipD_rs2BuhGx7XOpLKBm_dEvE9_990yP6kF0/edit?usp=sharing As always ... great work and I continue to use and love the ins...
by Kennedy
Wed Apr 25, 2018 3:45 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Alternative Numbers
Replies: 15
Views: 2211

Re: Alternative Numbers

Is anyone familiar with the Equibase speed figure? Several surprises here, just their lifetime top numbers listed..... Bolt D Oro 118 Promises Fulfulled 115 Enticed 113 Audible 111 Bravazo 110 Magnum Moon 109 Good Magic 109 Mendelssohn 109 Justify 108 Solomini 107 Hofburg 107 Noble Indy 106 Vino Ro...
by Kennedy
Wed Apr 25, 2018 3:42 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Alternative Numbers
Replies: 15
Views: 2211

Re: Alternative Numbers

Treve wrote:4th best BSF ;)
As a 3yo?

Who am I missing?

Good Magic earned his 100 as a 2yo. McKinzie won't be running. No Derby entrant has exceed 99 as a 3yo other than Justify and Bolt D'Oro.
by Kennedy
Tue Apr 24, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Alternative Numbers
Replies: 15
Views: 2211

Re: Alternative Numbers

That difference between beyer and bris on Audible is perplexing. Potentially perplexing but it is interesting that the representation of his performance in the Florida Derby as related to Justify's race in the SA Derby is actually quite consistent. BSF - BRIS Justify 107 - 114 Audible 99 - 107 So t...
by Kennedy
Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Alternative Numbers
Replies: 15
Views: 2211

Re: Alternative Numbers

Personally I do a bit figure aggregation in an attempt to figure out who is the "fastest" compared to others in the race. I use Beyers, BRIS and DRF Track Ratings for all race at a similar distance on a similar surface. Name KSR Avg Fig Justify 107.75 110 Audible 105.83 104 Bolt D'Oro 105.73 102 Mag...
by Kennedy
Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:29 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Alternative Numbers
Replies: 15
Views: 2211

Re: Alternative Numbers

It's "old school" speed figures but here is the simple Track Rating + the variant for the last preps

DRF Track Rating + Variant
Justify 109
Good Magic 104
Magnum Moon 103
Vino Rosso 103
Audible 101
Noble Indy 99
My Boy Jack 99
Mendelssohn N/A
by Kennedy
Fri Apr 20, 2018 12:07 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2018 Kentucky Derby News & Notes
Replies: 219
Views: 30382

Re: 2018 Kentucky Derby News & Notes

wow - that was some speedy run by Lone Sailor - Amoss said the track was playing fast - but still - and is he a closer? between him and My Boy Jack, the closers could be really interesting this year. Seems like the jockey thought it was a race instead of a workout. This wasn't a case where the ride...
by Kennedy
Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby Point Races 2018
Replies: 692
Views: 68595

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Kennedy, regarding point #15, Stark posted this in the other Derby thread, the Sire and BM Sire AWDs are listed here! http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Derby18Points.pdf If I understand and read correctly: -Vino Rosso (Dam Sire AWD 8.0) -Bolt d'Oro (Dam Sire AWD 8.2) -Free Drop Bill...
by Kennedy
Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby Point Races 2018
Replies: 692
Views: 68595

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Here is a brief explanation of all the factors involved in the 20-20 system and a bit of history on how each factor has played out in past runnings of the Derby. Hopefully you find this entertaining. 20-20 Breakdown for 2018 1. Must achieve Beyer as a 3yo that is equal to or superior to the average ...
by Kennedy
Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:10 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby Point Races 2018
Replies: 692
Views: 68595

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

what the 2020? Just my own little attempt to create a statistical profile to measure Derby winners against. The idea is that many Derby winners fit a certain profile and many contenders do not fit that profile. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't but I do find it enjoyable to work through.
by Kennedy
Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby Point Races 2018
Replies: 692
Views: 68595

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Final 1. Audible (1) 2. Justify (2) 3. Mendelssohn (3) 4. Bolt D’Oro (4) 5. Vino Rosso (5) 6. Magnum Moon (6) 7. Good Magic (7) 8. Flameaway (8) 9. My Boy Jack (10) 10. Quip (9) On the Radar: Combatant Did you do the 2020 this year? Working on it! At this point I'm just waiting for BRIS to release ...
by Kennedy
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:19 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby Point Races 2018
Replies: 692
Views: 68595

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Final 1. Audible (1) 2. Justify (2) 3. Mendelssohn (3) 4. Bolt D’Oro (4) 5. Vino Rosso (5) 6. Magnum Moon (6) 7. Good Magic (7) 8. Flameaway (8) 9. My Boy Jack (10) 10. Quip (9) On the Radar: Combatant Basically no changes from my ranking last week except to switch My Boy Jack and Quip. Quip ran we...
by Kennedy
Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:26 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Justify
Replies: 1131
Views: 149035

Re: Justify

Here is a quote from that article Derby entrants that rated on the lead — especially an easy lead — in their final prep have met with virtually no success on racing’s biggest stage. Horses that led at each of the first two calls of their final prep, but lost ground (lengths) between those calls, are...