Search found 1054 matches

by Kennedy
Fri Sep 27, 2013 10:41 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Jockey Club Gold Cup Inv. (G1)
Replies: 78
Views: 16778

Re: Jockey Club Gold Cup Inv. (G1)

Flat Out is probably my top pick in here, with Palace Malice not too far behind. Despite the fact that I do not like Cross Traffic at the distance I think that, if he's going to win a G1 at 10F, it will be in a spot like this. I just cannot see enough strong early pace to challenge him from that ou...
by Kennedy
Wed Sep 25, 2013 11:08 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Eddie D Stakes (Grade III) - 09/29/13
Replies: 4
Views: 1937

Re: Eddie D Stakes (Grade III) - 09/29/13

Fantastic race and very high probability that a future BC winner is among the 14.
by Kennedy
Wed Sep 25, 2013 11:04 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2013 Breeders Cup Classic
Replies: 112
Views: 20108

Re: 2013 Breeders Cup Classic

I think it's easy to forget that Royal Delta is not a horse that consistently puts out a top class effort. She lost by 5 lengths to Funny Proposition earlier this year. An effort like that would see her dead last in the Classic. Even at her best Royal Delta is a good horse but I wouldn't trust her a...
by Kennedy
Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:53 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2013 Three Year Old Male Eclipse Award Winner
Replies: 20
Views: 6897

Re: 2013 Three Year Old Male Eclipse Award Winner

Power rankings are essentially a points per start calculation. That is not actually how they are calculated because I wanted to avoid skewing towards horses with fewer starts but it works out to a point per start in concept.
by Kennedy
Tue Sep 17, 2013 5:53 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2013 Three Year Old Male Eclipse Award Winner
Replies: 20
Views: 6897

Re: 2013 Three Year Old Male Eclipse Award Winner

Are G1 wins against older horses worth more or is it a flat 60 regardless of conditions? G-1 wins are worth 60pts. They are worth less if they are NOT against older males. Reductions are applied based on age and gender restrictions. BC races are worth 50% more than a corresponding race of equal gra...
by Kennedy
Tue Sep 17, 2013 4:22 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2013 Three Year Old Male Eclipse Award Winner
Replies: 20
Views: 6897

Re: 2013 Three Year Old Male Eclipse Award Winner

In your system would a BC Dirt Mile and a Kelso win by Verrazano trump a JCGC win by Palace Malice or Orb? Yes it would but then if Palace Malice or Orb did anything in the Classic then it changes the mixture. Realistically only those 3 have a chance. Departing could maybe earn enough points but he...
by Kennedy
Tue Sep 17, 2013 4:19 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Breeders' Cup Top 5
Replies: 71
Views: 16991

Re: Breeders' Cup Top 5

I don't think Ron the Greek is such a crazy pick but he certainly hasn't looked great in his last few. It's not that he's been poor he has just seemed very flat. If he were to run his best lifetime performance he could definitely be in the mix plus if he gets a pace collapse things may look even bet...
by Kennedy
Mon Sep 16, 2013 3:33 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2013 Three Year Old Male Eclipse Award Winner
Replies: 20
Views: 6897

Re: 2013 Three Year Old Male Eclipse Award Winner

Not sure if this matters to anyone but me but I have long used a point system to dispassionately quantify a horse accomplishments. This is how the 3yo division is shaped up at the moment. Orb - 238.73 Verrazano - 185.73 Palace Malice - 155.98 Oxbow - 154.27 Departing - 128.45 Will Take Charge - 123....
by Kennedy
Mon Sep 16, 2013 11:02 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Breeders' Cup Top 5
Replies: 71
Views: 16991

Re: Breeders' Cup Top 5

Just FYI I think Sahara Sky will miss the BC. He had some kind of setback and is not even expected to resume training until the end of the month. Division seems wide open this year.... a horse like Bahamian Squall might be a good early bet on a speed-favoring strip like SA. edit: Here is my current...
by Kennedy
Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:52 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Breeders' Cup Top 5
Replies: 71
Views: 16991

Re: Breeders' Cup Top 5

I'm wondering if Reneesgotzip will try the Turf Sprint against the boys again, since she was third in it last year. Honestly, it would seem a softer spot than heading to the dirt against Groupie Doll and Dance to Bristol. I know her trainer mentioned the Turf Sprint but the glory is much greater in...
by Kennedy
Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:48 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Breeders' Cup Top 5
Replies: 71
Views: 16991

Re: Breeders' Cup Top 5

Verrazano actually does fit the two turn mile profile pretty well but like Dustin I have grave concerns about his ability to handle top horses. He has consistently come up short when the pressure has been on. Moreno on the other hand seems like a really good one in the making. I would not be surpris...
by Kennedy
Mon Sep 16, 2013 10:41 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Breeders' Cup Top 5
Replies: 71
Views: 16991

Re: Breeders' Cup Top 5

Princess of Sylmar seems very unlikely at this point to go to the Distaff. Kennedy, do you believe they will go or just didn't realize she was unlikely? I also don't think you'll be seeing Beholder in the F&M Sprint, they are pointing to the Distaff and I haven't seen any indication for other wise....
by Kennedy
Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:06 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Breeders' Cup Top 5
Replies: 71
Views: 16991

Breeders' Cup Top 5

I suppose we have to start filling this place with content again. Here are some of my thoughts on the BC at present. I'll try to fill in some analysis as I have time but for now it's just top 5's for each race. If anyone else has some top 5's or just some BC opinions this would be a good place to ad...
by Kennedy
Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:03 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Welcome Back
Replies: 140
Views: 28525

Re: Welcome Back

Good to be back!