Search found 63 matches

by agrussel
Sat Apr 04, 2015 8:49 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Interesting Read - Keeneland Trainer Angles
Replies: 3
Views: 873

Interesting Read - Keeneland Trainer Angles

Disclosure: I don't often find myself looking at DRF content but I found this article linked from a different site I do frequent. I take no credit for the research or writing. I'm a trend follower (for those who know me, not a trend setter) and found this content interesting enough to consider as t...
by agrussel
Sun Mar 01, 2015 12:41 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby Trends: Pletcher at Gulfstream
Replies: 50
Views: 6439

Re: Derby Trends: Pletcher at Gulfstream

Alright, here it is... the Baffert post. Please note that for the purposes of this thread, I am excluding War Emblem . Baffert was his trainer, of course, but we're focusing mostly on the prep campaign in addition to the race itself and War Emblem is basically an outlier in every regard. Another gr...
by agrussel
Tue Feb 24, 2015 10:54 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Derby Trends: Pletcher at Gulfstream
Replies: 50
Views: 6439

Re: Derby Trends: Pletcher at Gulfstream

Tessablue ... great job/awesome read! I'm a daily reader on this forum ... but as a novice I'm only only a very sporadic poster. First and foremost I admire these equine athletes for their talents and beauty. But my love for racing grows through the exercise of indentifiyng and attempting to quantif...
by agrussel
Fri May 02, 2014 9:47 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2014 Kentucky Derby News & Notes
Replies: 440
Views: 52564

Re: 2014 Kentucky Derby News & Notes

Pablo wants to run in the Preakness, so no show in KD at pp#20. 8-) From B-H: >Following the withdawl of Hoppertunity around 9 a.m. EDT on May 1, Pablo Del Monte's connections contemplated the decision. Ward finally confirmed to Churchill Downs racing secretary Ben Huffman just before the 9 a.m. Fr...
by agrussel
Fri May 02, 2014 2:42 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: The 2014 Derby Pool Contest- Results
Replies: 72
Views: 7928

Re: The 2014 Derby Pool Contest

Pool A
California Chrome

Pool B
General a Rod

Pool C
Medal Count

Pool D
Chitu

Pool E
Vinceremos


Winning Margin:
2 1/4 lengths

Final Time:
2:02.5
by agrussel
Wed Apr 30, 2014 7:59 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw
Replies: 87
Views: 7211

Re: Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw

Wicked Strong was 6-1 and Hoppy 8-1 and he switched them after the outside draw for WS. Danza is just surrounded by speed! I don't get Danza as 4th choice at all. Can you explain? Ask the guy who did the line! Ha! Danza is probably the most polarizing horse, some here say he's #1, others say he isn...
by agrussel
Wed Apr 30, 2014 5:39 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw
Replies: 87
Views: 7211

Re: Kentucky Derby Post Position Draw

2 questions, both may be really kinda dumb. 1) When is the draw? Today? 2) Is there anywhere (apart from NBCSN or HRTV or TVG) where I can watch the draw live? Also, I'm excited for the draw :mrgreen: I had a dream CC got 5 and Ride On Curlin got 15 Wow Carole. Are you sure ROC was a 15 and not a 1...
by agrussel
Thu Apr 24, 2014 7:28 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Where will Chrome be early?
Replies: 23
Views: 3219

Re: Where will Chrome be early?

He isn't value in straight Win wagering, but he'll assuredly be good value in vertical bets and horizontal bets. You hit a Pick 4 or a Trifecta, even one with California Chrome keyed on top, and it's going to pay well. The Smarty Jones (4/1 favorite) / Lion Heart (5/1 second choice) / Imperialism (...
by agrussel
Thu Apr 24, 2014 7:25 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Question about Bob Baffert Entries
Replies: 15
Views: 2515

Re: Question about Bob Baffert Entries

The real reason I'm asking is because I don't know if I should be skeptical of Hoppertunity because of how emphatic Baffert is about entering Bayern. On one hand, I get that having three runners instead of two give him better odds to be the winning trainer. On the other hand, Hoppertunity is conside...
by agrussel
Thu Apr 24, 2014 3:08 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Question about Bob Baffert Entries
Replies: 15
Views: 2515

Question about Bob Baffert Entries

What is Bob Baffert's modus operandi when it comes to multiple entries in big time races?

Does he normally talk up one entry over another?
Is there a trend that the hyped horse normally outperforms the less talked about horse?
Or on the contrary does the less hyped horse perform better than expected?
by agrussel
Thu Apr 24, 2014 2:07 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Where will Chrome be early?
Replies: 23
Views: 3219

Re: Where will Chrome be early?

He isn't value in straight Win wagering, but he'll assuredly be good value in vertical bets and horizontal bets. You hit a Pick 4 or a Trifecta, even one with California Chrome keyed on top, and it's going to pay well. The Smarty Jones (4/1 favorite) / Lion Heart (5/1 second choice) / Imperialism (...
by agrussel
Wed Apr 23, 2014 10:24 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Grade III 150K DERBY TRIAL
Replies: 54
Views: 5644

Re: Grade III 150K DERBY TRIAL

I admit that if I owned him, so would I. But I'd tell the jockey not to flog him down the lane to finish sixth. I've actually gone back and forth on him a lot. I will say that I think if Baffert had been bullish on the Derby from the outset, he'd have been on almost all of my tickets. The waffling ...
by agrussel
Mon Apr 21, 2014 3:15 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2014 Kentucky Derby News & Notes
Replies: 440
Views: 52564

Re: 2014 Kentucky Derby News & Notes

Nice of Baffert to remove all these pace elements... FWIW I don't think that Chitu would have been up on the pace had he run, although it is impossible to say for sure. His early pace in route races is slower than many of the other speedier types (Wildcat Red and Chrome, etc.) heading into the race...
by agrussel
Mon Apr 21, 2014 2:49 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Your Worst Derby Bet
Replies: 47
Views: 4888

Re: Your Worst Derby Bet

Great topic/question. This made me really look back at the plays that didn't pay. It all started in 2003 when I first became enamored with the Derby in my own Ten Most Wanted ways. My sophomore try in 2004 wasn't much better when I really should have just L'eggoed my Borrego . 2005 was a turnaround ...
by agrussel
Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:34 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: 2014 Kentucky Derby News & Notes
Replies: 440
Views: 52564

Re: 2014 Kentucky Derby News & Notes

The moves (Midnight Hawk and Chitu) by Baffert are clearly a strategy he is playing out to get Bayern into the field of 20.

It doesn't bother me ... I actually admire the game of chess he is playing by moving his pieces around the board.
by agrussel
Mon Apr 21, 2014 1:27 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Would you run Chitu or Dance With Fate in the Derby?
Replies: 62
Views: 6078

Re: Would you run Chitu or Dance With Fate in the Derby?

Sounds like Baffert is planning on running Chitu in the Derby Trial with an asterisk that he could also still come back for the Derby.
by agrussel
Thu Apr 17, 2014 1:15 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Would you run Chitu or Dance With Fate in the Derby?
Replies: 62
Views: 6078

Re: Would you run Chitu or Dance With Fate in the Derby?

I've actually been warming up a little to Chitu's chances to run well enough to hit the board. The question marks; I understand the skepticism with Henny Hughes on the top line ... but there is some stamina influence underneath. I understand the trouble with the company lines of Candy Boy, Midnight ...
by agrussel
Thu Apr 17, 2014 8:12 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Danza
Replies: 22
Views: 3750

Re: Danza

Have you checked out his other races? He's an interesting horse. Watch his Saratoga Special and you'll see he's not a one hit wonder, that race was a definite sign of things to come. He's outsprinted but closes with a bang. I expected his distant 3rd in his 3-y-o debut to be just a dull race and it...
by agrussel
Thu Apr 17, 2014 8:11 am
Forum: Racing
Topic: Danza
Replies: 22
Views: 3750

Re: Danza

Is there any concern that his trainer went on record this morning saying about a different horse in his stable, "“This is one of the biggest disappointments of my career,” said trainer Pletcher. “I really feel Constitution was our biggest chance to win the Kentucky Derby since Super Saver."? Yeah a...
by agrussel
Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Forum: Racing
Topic: Danza
Replies: 22
Views: 3750

Re: Danza

Is there any concern that his trainer went on record this morning saying about a different horse in his stable, "“This is one of the biggest disappointments of my career,” said trainer Pletcher. “I really feel Constitution was our biggest chance to win the Kentucky Derby since Super Saver."?