2018 Preakness Stakes

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Somnambulist
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Thu May 17, 2018 9:01 am

Chad Brown deserves a medal for running Good Magic here. What an absolute snoozer of race this would be otherwise.

This field has really suffered in recent years.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
stark
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Thu May 17, 2018 10:29 am

Somnambulist wrote:Chad Brown deserves a medal for running Good Magic here. What an absolute snoozer of race this would be otherwise.

This field has really suffered in recent years.
I was thinking from a betting perspective, Good Magic has to be the toss in here. $30 worth of trifectas keying Justify on top of everybody else for me.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Tessablue
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Thu May 17, 2018 10:31 am

Somnambulist wrote:Chad Brown deserves a medal for running Good Magic here. What an absolute snoozer of race this would be otherwise.

This field has really suffered in recent years.
Absolutely. I want to send those connections a fruit basket. I guess it makes sense that the Preakness would suffer as the Belmont strengthens, and the TC as a whole is more difficult and competitive than it used to be, but this field would be dire without Good Magic in there.
Somnambulist
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Thu May 17, 2018 10:43 am

I am not betting this race so my opinion is probably not worth much, but even if I was I find this race inherently un-bettable unless you are using the race in a sequence. Outside of Good Magic and Justify there is nothing here that looks fast enough to move forward, unless those two regress a considerable amount.

But at 5/2 or whatever GM is morning .. yuck.

For a $1.5M (I think) Classic you think there would be some level of competitiveness, but I think that Derby race was a hard race so I guess they don't want to run back. There isn't much waiting in the shadows either.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Tessablue
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Thu May 17, 2018 11:24 am

I think it's playable if you key the top two and go heavy on the supers, but it's not very appealing, the track will be a mess, and both of them have some question marks. I'm honestly surprised the foot bruise angle hasn't caused much fervor, but I suppose that's a Baffert benefit.

The Belmont looks like it'll be good, especially if Audible actually runs, and I don't think Justify will have it easy even if he walks here. That race has definitely improved in quality over the past decade or so, just wish the general Belmont day experience had improved along with it...
Somnambulist
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Thu May 17, 2018 11:31 am

Tessablue wrote: The Belmont looks like it'll be good, especially if Audible actually runs, and I don't think Justify will have it easy even if he walks here. That race has definitely improved in quality over the past decade or so, just wish the general Belmont day experience had improved along with it...
I agree. :( Did you get the survey NYRA sent out on Monday regarding the Belmont and reno?

My boyfriend took the day off and is basically imploring us to go. We paid $95 for the upper grandstand last year and could literally see or hear nothing... we got lucky it was a non-TC year and had a lot of mobility. The food/beer prices don't kill me because whatever, I live in this money-pit state anyway but the drunk people are just horrible.

This is just a big money year for us already so I don't know if I can swing the $350 seats for the weekend but it is literally not worth attending without spending that much. I am having such anxiety over whether or not to get tickets I'm having dreams about it.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
MySaladDays
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Thu May 17, 2018 11:49 am

eh, these are 3 year olds. Not 4 year olds. ANYTHING can happen.
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bare it all
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Thu May 17, 2018 11:52 am

Somnambulist wrote:
Tessablue wrote: The Belmont looks like it'll be good, especially if Audible actually runs, and I don't think Justify will have it easy even if he walks here. That race has definitely improved in quality over the past decade or so, just wish the general Belmont day experience had improved along with it...
I agree. :( Did you get the survey NYRA sent out on Monday regarding the Belmont and reno?

My boyfriend took the day off and is basically imploring us to go. We paid $95 for the upper grandstand last year and could literally see or hear nothing... we got lucky it was a non-TC year and had a lot of mobility. The food/beer prices don't kill me because whatever, I live in this money-pit state anyway but the drunk people are just horrible.

This is just a big money year for us already so I don't know if I can swing the $350 seats for the weekend but it is literally not worth attending without spending that much. I am having such anxiety over whether or not to get tickets I'm having dreams about it.
Its your money and time and life... but I would implore you to go. Money is money and its hard to come by but there can always be more money made, but the experience?? You cannot buy an experience and if you're "unsure"... just do it. Regardless of the who/what - if there is a TC on the line after Saturday night, you'll be bummed you didn't buy those tickets. Regardless of who/what, Belmont with a TC on the line is like nothing else and I hope to one day attend such an event. Small kids and a husband make my life more difficult, but you have all the freedom and youth on your side. DO IT SOM :)
Tessablue
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Thu May 17, 2018 12:12 pm

Aww man, that sucks Som. Remember when tickets were $65 with free parking? Last year I paid $100 plus $40 parking to sit behind a giant NYRA Bets tent. Couldn't see the track at all, but we got a great view of the singer or whoever when they performed for three minutes before the race. So if you do end up going, avoid section W at all costs. It's weird because the quality of racing on the day is massively improved and there are actual food options, but the crowd is awful and it just isn't as fun anymore. I didn't get the survey- what was it about?

Just caught up on some videos of Justify galloping. This is definitely not a betting race.
MySaladDays
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Thu May 17, 2018 12:20 pm

Somnambulist wrote:Chad Brown deserves a medal for running Good Magic here..
But Tom Amoss doesn't?
Somnambulist
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Thu May 17, 2018 12:24 pm

MySaladDays wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:Chad Brown deserves a medal for running Good Magic here..
But Tom Amoss doesn't?
Running back on 2 weeks is pretty atypical of Chubb.

TB, NYRA's survey was just on our interests in Belmont, the Stakes itself, and the planned renovation. The e-mail was buried in my promotions folder Monday morning so I didn't know if other people missed it.

Aqueduct charged me for parking this year so I don't even know what's going on in this game anymore.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Kennedy
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Thu May 17, 2018 12:33 pm

In terms of interesting angles this has to be one of the worst Classics in recent memory. I know it's racing and I know strange things can happen but I think to find something interesting here you have to get pretty imaginative because no natural lines of intrigue exist. Justify is the best horse in the race and it's quite rare to see one member of the field so far above the rest.

I do like that Good Magic is in here but I actually hate his chances. He's a small horse, he's not as robust as the rest so I have questions about him turning up the heat off a short rest but also it's hard to see how he could beat Justify here when he couldn't do it in Kentucky. He really did have a good trip and a clear shot at Justify and he just wasn't good enough. I don't see him getting a better setup here at best it'll just be the same and so for that reason I don't want him here.

Justify is the likely winner and I think he should be your top selection. Simple and easy. If you do want an interesting prospect perhaps for underneath or for the ultimate "that's racing" upset I think I'm drawn towards Bravazo. I think the biggest surprise in the Derby was that he didn't suck. He should have but he didn't. He had a wide trip all the way around but actually made a really nice looking move. He flattened out and if we're honest he is much worse than the best of this crop but to play him under Justify just means that you hope Good Magic regresses and he is able to upset Quip which i think he might be able to do.

I suspect that Justify and Quip will just go 1-2 all the way around but maybe Quip doesn't handle the track as well so maybe Bravazo can gut it out and just nip him for a minor place.

Justify
Bravazo
Quip
Tessablue
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Thu May 17, 2018 1:30 pm

I think the argument for Good Magic- if you really want to make one- is that he might have ended up on the worst part of the track in the Derby stretch. He looked like he had Justify dead to rights but sort of spun his wheels in the 2-3 path. Meanwhile, Smith took Justify immediately to the rail (at Baffert's instruction, I'm sure, given his pre-race comments) and most of the closers either came up the rail or stayed very very wide. We've seen that part of the track become no-man's land in previous sloppy races at Churchill, so maybe Good Magic's effort was closer to Justify's than it looked.

I don't know how convinced I am by that argument, but it wouldn't shock me if he turned the tables. Honestly though, after watching them both gallop I feel like this is the worst sort of race to evaluate. Both look vulnerable and the track condition is a huge question mark, but nobody else in the field looks good enough to beat them even at around 80%. I agree that Bravazo ran surprisingly well in the Derby, but he has a fantastic mud pedigree and I don't really trust Lukas to have him better here. Quip can't run fast even with soft trips, Lone Sailor is unlikely to get a pace, Sporting Chance is a steward's nightmare... Tenfold and Diamond King aren't good, but they've been pointed here and have space to move forward. I guess?

And thanks Som, I never saw it but after my comments to customer service last year I've probably been blacklisted...
Last edited by Tessablue on Thu May 17, 2018 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Squeaky
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Thu May 17, 2018 1:32 pm

Why do you think J looks vulnerable?
Tessablue
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Thu May 17, 2018 1:35 pm

Squeaky wrote:Why do you think J looks vulnerable?
Because no matter how much they try to deny it, the injury isn't nothing and he has very little foundation to fall back on. He was exhausted in the stretch of the Derby, they haven't done much in between and he hasn't looked great (to me) during what little he's done. He'll have to do this on talent alone and his talent is immense, so he's still the most likely winner, but a loss would not shock me at all even given the quality of this field.
Somnambulist
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Thu May 17, 2018 1:43 pm

Tessablue wrote:He was exhausted in the stretch of the Derby, they haven't done much in between and he hasn't looked great (to me) during what little he's done. He'll have to do this on talent alone and his talent is immense, so he's still the most likely winner, but a loss would not shock me at all even given the quality of this field.
This was so obvious that even my mom noticed it. In the 20 Derby's I have watched with her I can't ever recall her making any comment like that.

I think he'll win this but he'll really be up against it at Belmont. I hope it's not too much for him. He's extremely talented and still figuring it out.. the second half of this year might be huge. I'd like to see him next year as well but that seems a pipe dream.

In the event he does lose it's no big deal anyone. That Derby track was probably very tiring and this is a lot to ask for a young horse with not much experience.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
stark
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Thu May 17, 2018 1:48 pm

Tessablue wrote: He was exhausted in the stretch of the Derby, they haven't done much in between and he hasn't looked great (to me) during what little he's done.

https://twitter.com/Racingwithbruno/sta ... 1233045504
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Tessablue
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Thu May 17, 2018 1:52 pm

Somnambulist wrote: This was so obvious that even my mom noticed it. In the 20 Derby's I have watched with her I can't ever recall her making any comment like that.

I think he'll win this but he'll really be up against it at Belmont. I hope it's not too much for him. He's extremely talented and still figuring it out.. the second half of this year might be huge. I'd like to see him next year as well but that seems a pipe dream.

In the event he does lose it's no big deal anyone. That Derby track was probably very tiring and this is a lot to ask for a young horse with not much experience.
Agreed, I think the Belmont would/will be a tall task even without the drama of the past ten days. Luckily he's got the best trainer for getting him there, and this race should hypothetically be easier than the Derby. But win or lose, he's insanely good and will remain insanely good for the rest of the year with any luck.

Have to say, it's really nice to have such laid-back conversations about the Triple Crown. Thanks, 2015!
stark wrote:
Tessablue wrote: He was exhausted in the stretch of the Derby, they haven't done much in between and he hasn't looked great (to me) during what little he's done.

https://twitter.com/Racingwithbruno/sta ... 1233045504
That's nice.
stark
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Thu May 17, 2018 2:11 pm

Jeremy Balan
‏@BH_JBalan

Let me lay out a scenario.

Let's say Sporting Chance sends and sets the pace and Justify sits off. How would you feel if you have the Derby winner coming up outside Sporting Chance as they enter the stretch?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BaroqueAgain1
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Thu May 17, 2018 2:27 pm

Nervous.
Like a mailman trying to deliver a letter to a house with a large, unfriendly dog loose in the yard...and hoping that the dog doesn't notice.
Last edited by BaroqueAgain1 on Thu May 17, 2018 2:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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