Mendelssohn

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Sparrow Castle
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Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:39 pm

I'm pretty taken by this guy too. This is a nice composite of all three famous Leslie's Lady kids running side-by-side. (No edit feature on twitter and he knows he misspelled Beholder.)

Alex Evers @A_Evers
How about this for a #NationalSiblingsDay... the big 3 out of Leslies Lady, Mendelssohn, Behonlder, and Into Mischief. Its wild that ive photographed all three!!!
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Izvestia
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:19 am

That’s a pretty fun photo!!!
BaroqueAgain1
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:28 am

I've had my eye on this colt since his first race and I think in Dubai he found his best surface. He's been a good racehorse on grass and synth, but we may have seen a whole 'nother beast in the UAE Derby. 8-)
For anyone listing his need to ship from Ireland as a reason to doubt his chances, remember that this colt shipped in to Del Mar and won the BC Juvy Turf. In March, he shipped to Dubai and won by 18 1/2 lengths on his first race over dirt.
IMHO, shipping could be a total non-factor for him.
Re: the photo. A cute idea, but the graphic artist in me quibbles with the wonky proportions between the three horses.
Last edited by BaroqueAgain1 on Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Treve
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:32 am

Thanks for posting that photo! I saw it was reposted by Spendthrift on their instagram, but it's nice to see a full sized version!

I also definitely don't think shipping is that much of a factor, I think that tends to be overblown in this day and age when colts ship regularly all over the country (and Euros ship all over the world). I think AOB knows what he is doing and if he thought shipping could be a detriment, then he'd ship early.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Big Ten
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:55 pm

107 Beyer
106 Beyer

Justify vs Mendelssohn

UAE Derby preps don't produce Kentucky Derby while SA Derby produced one in 2012 and 2014 in this decade. Then again, we never had a UAE Derby winner who won by 18+ lengths and breaking the track record by over a second.

This might be the only horse that Team Baffert should fear the most. The rest are running for 3rd place if Justify and Mendelssohn run their races. I'm only going with Team Baffert because he has won the Ky Derby four times before. And just plain and simple intuition on Justify.

Last time Baffert had a horse as good as Justify, the horse won the Triple Crown. Baffert actually finished 1st and 3rd in the 2015 Kentucky Derby so Justify could probably do no worse than Dortmund if he fires. Plus, Breeders' Cup is being held at Churchill. He should have Justify primed.

I'm still NOT aware of Mendelssohn's competition in the UAE or if he simply freaked like Bellamy Road did in the 2005 Wood. Justify beat a highly touted, Bolt d'Oro, while running green. Both horses still have mystery boxes like every Derby starter does.

These are the only two horses I see winning the Kentucky Derby. Not going all over the place like I did last year. Keep it simple. One pick. One bet. One winner. It's Justify being the one for me.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Treve
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:01 pm

He beat the track record by by over 2 seconds actually. 2.57 seconds, to be exact.

I don't think he beat the world's biggest KY Derby favourites, but it was actually a pretty well regarded UAE Derby field. It's not like he beat up on a bunch of claimers. Rayya had won the Group III UAE Oaks by 3 3/4 lengths on March 1. Reride had won the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland Park by 2 1/2 lengths on Feb. 25. Gold Town had been two for two on the dirt in Dubai this year, winning by 4 1/4 lengths on Jan. 25 and 10 1/2 lengths on Feb. 15.

And he did all that while running for the first time on dirt.

Also someone pointed out to me that his opening 1/4 of 25 seconds is actually faster than it looks since it's calculated from the standing start, there is no run up, unlike the US, so one can shave off about a second and a half (or so I'm told, words not mine).
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
stark
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:03 pm

Treve wrote:He beat the track record by by over 2 seconds actually. 2.57 seconds, to be exact.
Any ballpark idea of how many races that's actually been since the poly was replaced?

thanks
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Treve
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:25 pm

stark wrote:
Treve wrote:He beat the track record by by over 2 seconds actually. 2.57 seconds, to be exact.
Any ballpark idea of how many races that's actually been since the poly was replaced?

thanks
The previous record was held on dirt by last year's Thunder Snow (1:57.79) the UAE Derby had been run at 1 3/16 miles at Meydan Racecourse for seven straight years through 2017, the first four of those on synthetic footing, the last three on the dirt. Thunder Snow’s final time was faster than all seven of those UAE Derbies.
So Mendelssohn's race was the 5th on Dirt since the switchback.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
stark
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:21 pm

Thanks, do they run at that distance other times of the year or just on the big day?

I guess I'm not convinced yet that it's comparable to American dirt. Looks like a man made product to me? Any conversation about it being sandy or clay based, does anybody compare it to any North American track?

https://twitter.com/TheMichelleYu/statu ... 3469151232

thanks.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Treve
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:54 pm

Not sure that makes a difference given the surface in the US varies from track to track? I feel like Belmont in particular (big sandy) and Churchill often get cited as weird, I've seen Oaklawn described like that too. Saratoga is said to be deep and tiring...
Not sure there's any one "american dirt".

But Baffert described it as soft and sandy:
Baffert, who is seeking a fourth win in the $US 10million event with Evens favourite West Coast and perennial World Cup participant Mubtaahij, was quoted as saying by the Dubai Racing Club’s media team: “They fluffed up the track and it has a cut in it and they both went over it great. West Coast likes this kind of track, a soft, sandy track.”
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
stark
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:57 pm

Thanks, really hoping he gets a work in over the Churchill strip?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Treve
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:12 pm

I don't think he recorded any workouts at Del Mar last year, at least I can't find any on xbtv.
I can't remember if he recorded a workout in Dubai though I do remember seeing videos of him galloping.

Europeans in general but AOB specifically just have such different ways of training. Most Europeans work their horses out by running them in races. I don't think Ballydoyle even has official clockers at least not for the regular gallops. Maybe it's different for their all-weather training track? Sometimes AOB will use his stop watch to clock a horse or calculate how fast they're going but nothing official. I think the best way to know would be to look at whether he worked out his previous Derby entrants? I can't remember.

I'm not too worried about the surface itself though to be honest especially since Churchill is known to be kinder to horses that have turf form. Plus this is a horse that has now run on three different kinds of surfaces in different conditions and won on all three.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
carole
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Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:46 am

I remember reading somewhere that AOB ships his horses in very last minute when they go abroad so I would think Mendelssohn will ship 3-4 days ahead of the Derby and only gallop over the Churchill Downs track, I really doubt he'll get a timed workout.
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Treve
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Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:07 pm

He shipped about a week early for Dubai, can't remember when he shipped for DMR.
I think it was about 5 days for the BC.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
stark
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Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:24 pm

Maybe he'll change it up some this time based on this excerpt.....

Just five horses have made the trip from Ballydoyle to Louisville to date, including Johannesburg, who finished eighth in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile the previous season. Master Of Horse’s run into fifth in 2011 is as close as O’Brien has been to the frame.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Treve
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Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:08 pm

Mendelssohn ties for 8th on the Longines World's Best Racehorse Rankings with a rating of 122
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... qus_thread
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
stark
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Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:52 am

Stolen posting from another forum....just curious if it's true?

Per the Churchill Downs Condition Book, a horse which has not started in the last 45 days (applies to Mendelssohn) will not be permitted to start unless it has at least one published workout within 20 days of entry at a distance acceptable to the stewards.

Therefore, he will have to have at least one published workout and I doubt that one at O'Brien's farm will be acceptable to the Stewards in Louisville.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Treve
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Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:04 pm

No idea if it is true (the rule) but this person sucks at math, Mendelssohn will have had 35 days (or 36 if you want to count from the 31st of March), not 45 between his starts.
Tried to dig on the internet to see if I could find a published workout for Thunder Snow last year and I couldn't.

a part of me is morbidly curious about what would happen of Churchill tried saying no to Coolmore though :lol:
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
stark
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Location: SoCal

Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:17 pm

Treve wrote:No idea if it is true (the rule) but this person sucks at math, Mendelssohn will have had 35 days (or 36 if you want to count from the 31st of March), not 45 between his starts.
Tried to dig on the internet to see if I could find a published workout for Thunder Snow last year and I couldn't.

a part of me is morbidly curious about what would happen of Churchill tried saying no to Coolmore though :lol:
LOL, good catch Treve!

Will follow the original post to see if anybody catches it over there.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/show ... p?t=144316
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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ThreeMustangs
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Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:05 pm

AOB ships his horses to the Curragh and other courses for workouts—he could do that with Mendelssohn if necessary.
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