Derby Point Races 2018

peeptoad
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Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:00 pm

Kennedy wrote:Final

1. Audible (1)
2. Justify (2)
3. Mendelssohn (3)
4. Bolt D’Oro (4)
5. Vino Rosso (5)
6. Magnum Moon (6)
7. Good Magic (7)
8. Flameaway (8)
9. My Boy Jack (10)
10. Quip (9)

On the Radar: Combatant
Did you do the 2020 this year?
Kennedy
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Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:16 pm

peeptoad wrote:
Kennedy wrote:Final

1. Audible (1)
2. Justify (2)
3. Mendelssohn (3)
4. Bolt D’Oro (4)
5. Vino Rosso (5)
6. Magnum Moon (6)
7. Good Magic (7)
8. Flameaway (8)
9. My Boy Jack (10)
10. Quip (9)

On the Radar: Combatant
Did you do the 2020 this year?
Working on it!

At this point I'm just waiting for BRIS to release the final pace figures for the ARK Derby and Lexington.

It seems likely that we'll have a record number of perfect qualifiers this year. From 1991 to the present there has never been more than 4 but this year it looks like there might be 5.

Audible
Good Magic
Justify
Magnum Moon
Mendelssohn
peeptoad
Posts: 2670
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Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:23 pm

Kennedy wrote:
peeptoad wrote:
Kennedy wrote:Final

1. Audible (1)
2. Justify (2)
3. Mendelssohn (3)
4. Bolt D’Oro (4)
5. Vino Rosso (5)
6. Magnum Moon (6)
7. Good Magic (7)
8. Flameaway (8)
9. My Boy Jack (10)
10. Quip (9)

On the Radar: Combatant
Did you do the 2020 this year?
Working on it!

At this point I'm just waiting for BRIS to release the final pace figures for the ARK Derby and Lexington.

It seems likely that we'll have a record number of perfect qualifiers this year. From 1991 to the present there has never been more than 4 but this year it looks like there might be 5.

Audible
Good Magic
Justify
Magnum Moon
Mendelssohn
Excellent. I am very interested to see how the field shapes up this year on the 2020. If there is a record # of perfect qualifiers it wouldn't surprise me. Just subjectively this year's field seems strong, at least in relation to the last few years.
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honneerider
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Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:27 pm

Eagerly awaiting Kennedy's 2020! Still miss the blog
peeptoad
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Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:56 am

Kennedy wrote: At this point I'm just waiting for BRIS to release the final pace figures for the ARK Derby and Lexington.
https://www.scribd.com/document/3765182 ... s-April-16
BigDonOKC
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Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:20 am

what the 2020?
Kennedy
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Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:10 am

BigDonOKC wrote:what the 2020?
Just my own little attempt to create a statistical profile to measure Derby winners against. The idea is that many Derby winners fit a certain profile and many contenders do not fit that profile.

Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't but I do find it enjoyable to work through.
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Treve
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Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:11 pm

I always look forward to it, Kennedy.


In the mean time here is this week's Derby Dozen from Steve Haskin.
1. Vino Rosso
2. Good Magic
3. Justify
4. Bolt d'Oro
5. Magnum Moon
6. Audible
7. Mendelssohn
*
8. My Boy Jack
9. Quip
10. Flameaway
11. Noble Indy
12. Enticed
(13. Solomini)
* Nota Bene: he calls the top 7 the magnificent 7 and basically says that you could make a case to move up or move down any of these on this top 7, case in point he finds it incredibly frustrating to rank Audible at 6 when he ran the co-fastest thoro-graph in the US.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky ... -farm.aspx

Time for me to work on my own list heh
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Kennedy
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Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:26 pm

Here is a brief explanation of all the factors involved in the 20-20 system and a bit of history on how each factor has played out in past runnings of the Derby. Hopefully you find this entertaining.

20-20 Breakdown for 2018

1. Must achieve Beyer as a 3yo that is equal to or superior to the average route prep winning fig


The aim of this factor is to identify the horses that have at some point run a race fast enough to win an average race against their peers.

Historical Performance: 26 years – 195-2-8-9 (Mine That Bird, Sea Hero)

This year the average winning Beyer is 95 so horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Bravazo, Firenze Fire, Flameaway, Free Drop Billy, Hofburg, Lone Sailor, My Boy Jack, Quip, Solomini

2. Last two Beyer figs achieved must exceed the average winning figure minus 6.

The goal of this factor is to weed out those horses who have not proven themselves to be up to the level required for more than just one race. 6 may seem like a magic number but it’s actually the average improvement level shown by a Derby winner from their last prep to the Derby.

Historical Performance: 26 years – 241-4-10-12 (Always Dreaming, Mine That Bird, Giacomo, Sea Hero)

This year the target figure is 184 over the last two races so horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Bravazo, Firenze Fire, Free Drop Billy, Hofburg, Lone Sailor, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, Solomini, Vino Rosso

3. Must be either first or second at the 1/8th pole in one of their 2 final preps

Shows that the entrant has the tactical speed to get themselves into the mix when it counts. Very few Derbies are won by horses who are not among the top 2 at the 1/8th pole.

Historical Performance: 26 years – 131-1-9-6 (Sea Hero)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Firenze Fire, Noble Indy, Solomini

4. The entrants last two preps must have been around two turns

Historical Performance: 26 years – 44-2-1-1 (Big Brown, Nyquist)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Gronkowski

5. Horses finish position must be no worse than position at the 1/8th pole in both final preps

Losing places in the stretch isn’t a good sign for a Derby winner. You want horses that aren’t getting passed by others late.

Historical Performance: 26 years – 142-3-10-8 (Super Saver, Mine That Bird, Silver Charm)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Bolt D’Oro, Bravazo, Free Drop Billy, Lone Sailor, My Boy Jack, Promises Fulfilled

6. Must have earned higher than field average BRIS Late Pace figure (LP) in last race

This factor used to simply be the raw closing fraction data as opposed to the late pace figure but since 1999 it has just been reliant on that BRIS LP figure. The ability to close fast in prep races is a prized weapon that bodes well for contenders stretching out to 10f for the first time.

Historical Performance: 26 years – 200-3-7-12 (Mine That Bird, Silver Charm, Go for Gin)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Bravazo, Enticed, Firenze Fire, Flameaway, Free Drop Billy, Noble Indy, Promises Fulfilled

7. Must have finished in the top 4 places in last prep

A simple way of checking form

Historical Performance: 26 years – 110-4-4-5 (Mine That Bird, Giacomo, Thunder Gulch, Sea Hero)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Bravazo, Firenze Fire, Promises Fulfilled

8. Must have finished in the top 3 in at least 2 races as a 3yo

Another way of checking consistency and form

Historical Performance: 26 years – 73-2-3-1 (Mine That Bird, Sea Hero)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Promises Fulfilled

9. Last Beyer cannot be worse than both of their last two (3yo races only)

You don’t want a horse whose form is going the wrong way.

Historical Performance: 26 years – 72-0-2-2

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Bravazo, My Boy Jack

10. Must be stakes winner of listed class or greater

It’s not very common for a horses first stakes win to be the Kentucky Derby

Historical Performance: 26 years – 97-1-6-4 (Giacomo)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Hofburg, Lone Sailor

11. BRIS LP figure must be higher/equal to their E1 or E2 pace figures in at least one route race as a 3yo

This one is a bit technical but basically it’s looking at whether or not a horse is always running their slowest at the end of races. Hopefully they are able to maintain some pace.

Historical Performance: 19 years – 35-0-1-2

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Enticed, Firenze Fire

12. Must have minumum of one stakes race @ 9f or more as a 3yo


Very few try without going 9f but none have ever succeeded.

Historical Performance: 26 years – 32-0-1-0

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Gronkowski

13. Must have exceeded the winning avg projected 10f time at least once in one of their last 2 preps

Again this one has a bit of math involved but take the fractions for each individual entrant in all their stakes preps and project their 10f time. Take the average of those projections and look for horses that earned a better than average projection

Historical Performance: 20 years – 87-2-3-1 (Animal Kingdom, War Emblem)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Firenze Fire

14. Highest Lifetime Beyer must be achieved in a two turn race

Historical Performance: 26 years – 33-1-1-1 (Nyquist)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Firenze Fire

15. Contender must have at least one Sire or Broodmare Sire AWD that is greater than 8.00

This factor is no longer used because the Chef-de-race website which supplied the data is no longer in operation and I have not found a data source or replacement factor that so accurately captures the breeding angle.

Historical Performance: 19 years – 41-1-1-1 (Nyquist)

No data was available for this year

Perfect Qualifiers
Audible
Good Magic
Justify
Magnum Moon
Mendelssohn

For anyone who cares you can see a handy reference chart for the 20-20 system throughout it's existence by clicking on the link below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
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Treve
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Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:53 pm

Thank you so much Kennedy!

So basically, what I'm getting from this is... Firenze Fire is a toss :lol:
ETA: I find it interesting that last year saw 0 perfect starters vs this year which features 5 of them. A spicy Derby ahead!
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Treve
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Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:46 pm

Kennedy, regarding point #15, Stark posted this in the other Derby thread, the Sire and BM Sire AWDs are listed here!
If I understand and read correctly:
-Vino Rosso (Dam Sire AWD 8.0)
-Bolt d'Oro (Dam Sire AWD 8.2)
-Free Drop Billy (Dam Sire AWD 8.1)
[Restoring Hope currently #24 on the points list (Sire AWD 8.1)]
[Pony Up current #28 on the points list (Dam Sire AWD 8.2)]

... would be the only ones that fit your last criteria.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Kennedy
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Tue Apr 17, 2018 6:42 pm

Treve wrote:Kennedy, regarding point #15, Stark posted this in the other Derby thread, the Sire and BM Sire AWDs are listed here!
If I understand and read correctly:
-Vino Rosso (Dam Sire AWD 8.0)
-Bolt d'Oro (Dam Sire AWD 8.2)
-Free Drop Billy (Dam Sire AWD 8.1)
[Restoring Hope currently #24 on the points list (Sire AWD 8.1)]
[Pony Up current #28 on the points list (Dam Sire AWD 8.2)]

... would be the only ones that fit your last criteria.
Are they stakes winning AWD? I'll have to check that out.

Actual AWD is always much lower because most races are sprints. It's the stakes races only where I found the value.
Tessablue
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Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:02 pm

Your 20/20 is always a treat, thanks for posting it Kennedy!

We're in limbo waiting for the workouts and post draw, but here's what I've got leading into these final few weeks:

1. Audible- I didn't think he'd ever end up as my clear #1 after the Derby, but the more I watched his past races the more I realized it would take a lot to displace him from this top spot. I don't want to write up everything I've got on him this far out, but I think he's immensely talented and has the ability to run from absolutely anywhere in the field. He just explodes off that right lead change and keeps going, and while his pedigree was an initial concern, I don't see anything in his performances to indicate that he'll have trouble going 10f. And if you look at other Derby contenders who had speed-oriented pedigrees alongside strong 9f performances, you'll find a good number of freaks.

2. Bolt d'Oro- can't believe the price we're likely to get on him. He has the pedigree, the mind, the running style, the toughness, the experience, the speed, and the back class to win this race, but he's still going to be around 9-1 because he's had bad racing luck in three consecutive races. Sure, his connections are a bit of a concern. But how often do Derby horses check that many boxes?

3. Magnum Moon- I was a little disappointed when he got that early lead, because it meant we weren't going to find out much about him. And the drifting has been talked about- personally I think it was half greenness, half due to the early lead change, but I won't begrudge anyone's hesitation on that matter. But I loved the way he had total control of that race despite a horse racing right up alongside him the entire time- even in just his fourth start he was loping along with his ears going back and forth just waiting for his jockey to ask him something, and that's a great quality, especially given the versatility he's demonstrated in his previous races. He's weirdly green in the stretch for a horse who is so professional early, and I'm not sure if I'll figure out how or if to bet him until the last moment, but I prefer him over Justify at the moment because I think he's gotten a lot more out of his abbreviated career than Justify has.

4. Hofburg- can't wait to get yelled at for this one! But if I love Audible, I have to bump this horse way up too. He has bounded forward with every race, his trainer would never do this if he didn't have the horse, and I will never shut up about his pedigree. He's already had a pretty buzzy work and I'm sure his odds will only drop in the next few weeks as he fully occupies the wiseguy spot. Luckily, he was 22-1 in the future pool...

5. Justify- honestly, I'm still struggling to see the horse that I think a lot of other people see. When I watch his first two starts and the SA Derby back-to-back, I see a very different horse in the stretch of the third race. He drifted back and forth, he had trouble with his lead change, he never once put his ears forward. It was a great effort, but I don't think he had much more to give. I'm also not sure why nobody is talking about the bit change going into the Derby, which strikes me as a pretty big red flag. But all that being said... he's clearly a huge talent, and I let American Pharoah beat me too.

6. Mendelssohn- it's so surreal to see the UAE Derby winner as the second or third choice in this race after a decade of getting suckered by them. I have too many reservations about his potential trip and his trainer to include him in any bets, but he wouldn't be a shocking winner and he gets this spot out of respect for his talent.

7. Good Magic- feels like there's a pretty big divide between the top 5/6 and the rest this year (and it sure is nice to have that many quality contenders). I don't think Good Magic is quite brilliant enough to make a huge impact here, but he's handy and he's got talent, so it wouldn't be a huge surprise. Looking forward to seeing his works leading up to the race.

8. Flameaway- love him, don't think he's talented enough to hang with the top horses here, but love him. They'll have to pass him in the stretch, and they probably will, but it won't make him quit and I'd be thrilled to see him hang on for a piece.

9. Vino Rosso- still don't really like any individual race he's run this year, but he's got a lot of talent and grindy improving Pletchers are dangerous... in the Belmont. I think he'd do better in that race than this one, but he would be yet another unsurprising winner. There are a lot of those this year!

10. My Boy Jack/ Free Drop Billy- My Boy Jack is like a mini-Exaggerator so I'm quite fond of him, but he does his best running on the turn and that isn't going to cut it in a race with some very strong stretch runners. Free Drop Billy is my pick to blow up the exotics because he always runs his (fairly slow) race and Romans horses rarely run poorly in the Derby.

The rest: I really dislike Quip, who should have finished much better in the AK derby, and Solomini, who still won't switch leads and hasn't improved at all. Enticed is a nice colt who is probably not getting enough attention but might be just a cut or two below the top tier, Noble Indy is also admirable and underappreciated but it's going to be a tough task on the front end this year. Not much interest in the others, although I will of course be thrilled in the unlikely even that Gronk finishes not-last.
katmandu
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Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:11 pm

Tessablue wrote:5. Justify-....When I watch his first two starts and the SA Derby back-to-back, I see a very different horse in the stretch of the third race. He drifted back and forth, he had trouble with his lead change, he never once put his ears forward. It was a great effort, but I don't think he had much more to give. I'm also not sure why nobody is talking about the bit change going into the Derby, which strikes me as a pretty big red flag. But all that being said... he's clearly a huge talent.
I saw this too, not quite the lark the first 2 races were, his affect was different. It may have just been an "off day anomaly", there's just not much to go on with the lightly raced horses.
stark
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Location: SoCal

Tue Apr 17, 2018 8:50 pm

Anybody have their auto-tosses penciled in yet?
You know, a horse that's in the top ten in the betting odds that won't be on your tickets, not win, place, show, exacta or trifecta?

For example.....Mendelssohn and Gronk, too much to overcome, if either one hits the board it'll be without me cheering or cashing.

What about you?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:05 pm

Only one horse has ever won the derby with out running at 2. Apollo and that was way back in 1882.

Magnum moon and Justify did not run as two year old. might like to know that from 2007 on two have been in the money. one was Curlin.
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Treve
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Tue Apr 17, 2018 11:23 pm

katmandu wrote:
Tessablue wrote:5. Justify-....When I watch his first two starts and the SA Derby back-to-back, I see a very different horse in the stretch of the third race. He drifted back and forth, he had trouble with his lead change, he never once put his ears forward. It was a great effort, but I don't think he had much more to give. I'm also not sure why nobody is talking about the bit change going into the Derby, which strikes me as a pretty big red flag. But all that being said... he's clearly a huge talent.
I saw this too, not quite the lark the first 2 races were, his affect was different. It may have just been an "off day anomaly", there's just not much to go on with the lightly raced horses.
It's interesting you both bring this up, because I saw earlier today in a comment section in response to something I wrote. The original poster said that Baffert claimed in an interview that Justify was geared down in the SA Derby stretch and not to use his time against him. I then answered that watching that race does not show a horse that is geared down, especially when the horse needs to be whipped, even if it is to demand attention. And he wasn't running like a geared down horse either to my eye but that I realize is as subjective as claiming that he was.
Someone else then replied that they were present at SA for the race and the horse definitely looked tired and very spent coming back to the winner's circle, so that would definitely fit with what you two have observed.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Flanders
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Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:40 am

BigDonOKC wrote:Only one horse has ever won the derby with out running at 2. Apollo and that was way back in 1882.

Magnum moon and Justify did not run as two year old. might like to know that from 2007 on two have been in the money. one was Curlin.
This isn't directed at you in anyway so please do not take it as such. I just personally think its a pretty dumb statistic that is brought up every time a horse that didn't race at 2 goes in the Kentucky Derby. There really hasn't been that many that tried, since 1937 only 59 horses didn't race at 2. That isn't a very large number and honestly I didn't even hear of most of the horses on the list. Like anything in horse racing it will happen again someday, maybe this year.

Here is the list if anyone is interested.
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/w ... _2017_.pdf
peeptoad
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Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:01 am

Thanks for the 2020 Kennedy... good stuff.

I've still got some sorting to do and I'd like to see the early DRF pps before committing, but I'm pretty sure Bolt D'Oro is my top pick this year. I don't care that he couldn't catch Justify last out; Justify had a tactical advantage and Bolt ran the best he could given the circumstances. He's just not the front runner that J is and, in a larger field with a slightly different pace scenario I think he could best that one and possibly win it all. My main concern with Bolt is that he's gone winless in his last three races. You can find reasons for those losses, but he's got to win one soon without any excuses. On the plus side he seems to be circling back to his career-best run in the Frontrunner last year. Up until the SA Derby that was, on pace, the fastest of all points races run.
Audible also looks tough, mainly because he paired up his last two and his overall late pace is among the strongest of the group. I still have doubts about him at 10F, but that's not something I can really clarify- just a feeling. I'd rank either Vino Rosso or Magnum Moon next. Of those I prefer VR partly because I think he'll be a bigger price and partly because he's proven he can close into a fast pace at a route. Magnum Moon hasn't done that yet, but it's not really a fault, more the way the races have unfolded for him. In all three of his routes he either set or tracked a slower pace and powered home. Not sure he'll be able to do that (as easily anyway) in KY. Mendelssohn and Good Magic would be lower: the former has shipping hurdles and a totally dissimilar (like completely different) track to contend with than he did in Dubai. I just don't think Good Magic is quite fas fast as the others and I question his ability at CD specifically but, again, that's a bit of a "hunch" on my part.

Ranking my top 7 relative to likely value (odds) vs talent/ suitability for the race, roughly:

1. Bolt D'Oro
2. Audible
3. Vino Rosso
4. Magnum Moon
5. Justify
6. Mendelssohn
7. Good Magic

Longer prices that I'd be tempted to use underneath: Solomini, Noble Indy, My Boy Jack, Hofburg, and Combatant (who I dreamed won the whole shebang last night).
peeptoad
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Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:10 am

stark wrote:Anybody have their auto-tosses penciled in yet?
You know, a horse that's in the top ten in the betting odds that won't be on your tickets, not win, place, show, exacta or trifecta?

For example.....Mendelssohn and Gronk, too much to overcome, if either one hits the board it'll be without me cheering or cashing.

What about you?
I don't know about top 10 betting since I think the horses that will take the most money are all pretty legit, but for the exact anyway I'll be tossing Gronk, Firenze Fire, Enticed, and probably Bravazo.
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