Derby Point Races 2018

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby stark » Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:03 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:The way I judge speed is yards per second. I don’t take in account the run up as far as distance travel because each track the run up is different and the time starts after the run up and the distance to the wire is correct. I have two system in Excel one average out all the information on the past performs then using system one with no money, and system two with money these system average out the last three races.
Now the speed program average out 3 races at each call from ¼ mile to 1 1/8 mile. Then from 1 mile to 1 1/8 mile then it is added to 1 1/8 to take it out to 1 ¼ mile. You can tell by looking at the chart if a horse is speeding up or slowing down. You can tell if a horse is a closer.


Do you use something like Trakus data for ground loss?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:13 pm

Starnne

I am glad I found this forum it looks to be very clean and have seen no name calling or fighting. A lot of Forum if you go in and post your pick and tell why some people get pissed off because they can not stand to have some one who is better than they are (not saying I am better) but have had my moment as have most who look at horses. I have cashed a lot of IRS tickets in the past and a lot of straight tickets some have been posted on the internet. One time a paper in OKC did a two-page spread about me before the derby and a TV news channel pick up on it. They had me live on Friday before the derby at Remington park in front of a TV with a friend watching the Oaks where I made a comment which when out live on TV, “in a few minutes when Rags To Riches win the Oaks she will be back in 5 weeks and win the Belmont.” I also have had bad moments like last year Derby the week before the race had it picked straight when they drew post I dropped the horse who ran second so I ADD A NEW RULE PLAY A TICKED LIKE YOU HAVE THEM BEFORE POST DRAW.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:26 pm

Curtis
/
Stark
No on Trakas I use the chart of last race. For me given up ground is simple he does not let horses get by him some call it heart
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby stark » Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:57 pm

I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:45 pm

10 race at Tampa Bay 2-10-2018 10 point derby prep race.
Catholic Boy has 10 points does not give up ground has won 3 of 4 he has ran 1 mile in 18.5 yps ,1 1/16 mile in 18.7 yps but his last race was slow 17.7 yps but was not being push and was 4.75 on top
He is the only horse in this field other than Vino Rosso who ran his last race in 17.82

The question in this race is who is faster 1 or 3 #1 has a speed fig. of 87 where he ran second and #3 has a speed fig. of 84 and there time was about the same but these horses are not the same one is a winner.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:04 pm

Hollywood star last race was slowraces before where not bad but has to improve to get on my list do not see in top two.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:04 pm

Hollywood star last race was slowraces before where not bad but has to improve to get on my list do not see in top two.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby stark » Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:29 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:Hollywood star last race was slowraces before where not bad but has to improve to get on my list do not see in top two.


He scratched from the HolyBull to run in this spot. His last race that you reference was the G1 BreedersCup. That's a long way from the G3 Sam Davis. Obviously he didn't like the DelMar oval, just draw a line thru that race and he looks okay here in my opinion, 2nd favorite at 5/2 that I think will drift upwards, just like I think the 8/5 morning line on CatholicBoy will drift downwards.

?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:49 pm

stark wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:Hollywood star last race was slowraces before where not bad but has to improve to get on my list do not see in top two.


He scratched from the HolyBull to run in this spot. His last race that you reference was the G1 BreedersCup. That's a long way from the G3 Sam Davis. Obviously he didn't like the DelMar oval, just draw a line thru that race and he looks okay here in my opinion, 2nd favorite at 5/2 that I think will drift upwards, just like I think the 8/5 morning line on CatholicBoy will drift downwards.

?


You can forgive one race or should you?
Will a good horse bounce to drift down would be a bounce? :)
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby stark » Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:00 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:
You can forgive one race or should you?


Yes, I can forgive a race and just draw a line thru it when all things are considered.

That race was against the best 2YOs in America on a surface he didn't like (he wasn't the only one who didn't like DelMar)

His trainer has done a good job picking this spot for his return off some very solid works including the 59 bullet on Jan 27.

He should naturally mature some from 2 to 3 so it's doubtful we've seen his best race yet.

I would need about 7/2 at post time to bet on him, especially if Catholic Boy is at an unbettable 6/5 or so.

My biggest concern is the lack of pace in the race, somebody could steal it if they get brave, this guy is another closer.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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