Derby Point Races 2018

stark
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Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:04 pm

BigDonOKC wrote: But back to the question I only run the derby speed chart on the derby, and would be more than glad to post it for you.
There are several here who really focus on the Derby, including "Matt's Derby Dozen" and "Kennedy's Contenders", you'll be a welcome addition, thanks in advance!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Mon Feb 05, 2018 6:11 pm

This week end point races for the derby speed was not great most look like they were slow. At Santa Anita race #5 the record is 18.89 Yard Per Second and the average horse in the U>S. runs 18.33 Yard Per Second. Lombo ran this race in 17.81YPS which is very slow for the west coast so he off my list. The race was 1 1/16 mile and Lombo wire the field but was backing up from the STR. To wire not a true derby winner for he gives up ground.
Gulfstream park race #12 was 1 1/16 mile its record time was 18.70 YPS which is slower than Santa Anita YPS. Audible ran it in 18.33 he has never given up ground and closed big time HE is on my derby top 12.
Aqueduct race was 1 1/8 mile and its record is 18.5YPS Avery Island ran this race in 17.8 YPS only.7 yards per second under the track record. he was closing to get there and ran a good race but still has not made my list
Kennedy
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Tue Feb 06, 2018 10:56 am

stark wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote: But back to the question I only run the derby speed chart on the derby, and would be more than glad to post it for you.
There are several here who really focus on the Derby, including "Matt's Derby Dozen" and "Kennedy's Contenders", you'll be a welcome addition, thanks in advance!
I've been completely delinquent this year!

I do actually have a top 10 I just haven't gotten around to posting it! Maybe I'll do that just for the heck of it.
Kennedy
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Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:12 am

Derby Top 10

February 6

1. Bolt D’Oro (1)
2. Audible (new)
3. Good Magic (2)
4. McKinzie (3)
5. Mourinho (4)
6. Principe Guilherme (7)
7. Combatant (8)
8. Mask (9)
9. Tiz Mischief (6)
10. Untamed Domain (10)

On the Radar: Free Drop Billy, Catholic Boy, Instilled Regard, Vinno Rosso, Alkhaatam, Mendelssohn, Firenze Fire, The Tabulator, Hollywood Star, Enticed

Dropped: Enticed (5)


There were 3 preps run the opening weekend of February and I think it’s safe to say that only one of them will have an impact on the run for the roses. The Holy Bull was excellent and the Bob Lewis and Withers were dreadful. Firenze Fire alone remains even a periphery part of my thinking based off his performance. He wasn’t great but he seems like the kind of horse that could hang around the fringes, get forgotten by Derby day and run an under the radar 3rd.

But on to the Holy Bull…I don’t like to overreact to February prep races where a Pletcher trainee dominates a race at Gulfstream but this race was the entire package. He was visually impressive after settling off the pace and he shrugged off Free Drop Billy with authority. His final fraction was about 12 flat which is quite fast and his projected 10f numbers were excellent. Basically it was a great prep any way you want to look at it.

I have Free Drop Billy as the #1 option on my radar which essentially makes him my 11th place horse because from one perspective he ran a great race to bounce back from the BC Juvenile disaster but from another angle this race setup pretty well for him and Audible just crushed him. Despite his own decent closing fractions etc… I wonder if he may not find 10f a bit too far. Perhaps he’s a bit more like Practical Joke where his class keeps him around at two turns but he might be more effective at one turn. Time will tell.

Tiz Mischief remains on my list despite being well beaten because I think this race was never going to go his way tactically and he’ll have better opportunities at other times.

Enticed on the other hand was poor and should have been better. It feels like McLaughlin horses do this a fair bit and I’m no longer a fan of his. Although he’s still better than Avery Island. I’m keeping him on the radar just in case.
Kennedy
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Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:31 am

BigDonOKC wrote: I Developed a program that looks at the speed in yards per second at each call out to 1 1/8 mile then it will project the horse in yard per second out to 1 1/4 mile, The average horse runs 18.33 yards per second.
Welcome to the board!

I'm interested in learning more about your projection method. It's something I've dabbled in for a while now but I feel like my projection calculation is weak. I basically just rely on Excel to auto calculate the projected 10f time because I couldn't figure out a better way to do it :)

Even with that the value of projected 10f times seems quite clear when you look at Derby winners. Even using my hacky method if you used no other factor to determine a Derby winner you'd have been able to identify 9 winners and 7 other in the money finishers just by taking the top 3 for that stat in the last 19 Derbies.

So how do you actually calculate the projection?
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bare it all
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Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:48 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:you look at Beyer :lol: :lol: :lol: they haven not been worth or work in years. When they give a HORSE a 80 for a mile at the same time as another Horse who get a 90 make for a bad way to look at speed.

I Developed a program that looks at the speed in yards per second at each call out to 1 1/8 mile then it will project the horse in yard per second out to 1 1/4 mile, The average horse runs 18.33 yards per second.
You focused on a single point of my post and then touted your own formulation for determining performance but offered no discussion on the 3YO in question.

Beyers, for me, are the most readily available and easiest "comparison" you can attempt to make when looking at performance beyond what the eye sees. I don't bet horses, thus have no need for any in-depth extrapolating beyond my own entertainment.

Based on your numbers, what do you call Avery Island and what do you make of his performance? Any sniff at the Derby, all factors considered and I'm assuming your decades of calculations using your own figures to back it up?
BigDonOKC
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Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:45 pm

The way I judge speed is yards per second. I don’t take in account the run up as far as distance travel because each track the run up is different and the time starts after the run up and the distance to the wire is correct. I have two system in Excel one average out all the information on the past performs then using system one with no money, and system two with money these system average out the last three races.
Now the speed program average out 3 races at each call from ¼ mile to 1 1/8 mile. Then from 1 mile to 1 1/8 mile then it is added to 1 1/8 to take it out to 1 ¼ mile. You can tell by looking at the chart if a horse is speeding up or slowing down. You can tell if a horse is a closer.
BigDonOKC
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Tue Feb 06, 2018 5:00 pm

bare did not mean to piss you off, go back a few threads about your.
horse and read what I said.
as for beyers when you have two races at the same distance one get a 85 the other get 90 and you think that is right.
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Starine
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Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:42 pm

Welcome, Don; I'm looking forward to your contributions to the forum.

Also delighted for the return of Kennedy.
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Curtis
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Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:48 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:bare did not mean to piss you off, go back a few threads about your.
horse and read what I said.
as for beyers when you have two races at the same distance one get a 85 the other get 90 and you think that is right.
But why did one horse get an 85 and the other a 90? Are you talking about the same track the same day? I don’t necessarily disagree, but your argument lacks context. One of the best arguments against BSF’s occurred a couple of years ago when Follow Me Crev won a 8.5f AOC in a near identical time to California Chrome’s in the San Pasqual a half-hour later. Crev earned a figure in the 90’s while Chrome was somewhere around 105. That defied logic. Not that the horses were at the same level, in that sense it was accurate but that isn’t what BSF’s in particular are supposed to reflect. The more I follow this sport the more interested I am in how horses run fast as opposed to simply how fast horses run.
stark
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Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:03 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:The way I judge speed is yards per second. I don’t take in account the run up as far as distance travel because each track the run up is different and the time starts after the run up and the distance to the wire is correct. I have two system in Excel one average out all the information on the past performs then using system one with no money, and system two with money these system average out the last three races.
Now the speed program average out 3 races at each call from ¼ mile to 1 1/8 mile. Then from 1 mile to 1 1/8 mile then it is added to 1 1/8 to take it out to 1 ¼ mile. You can tell by looking at the chart if a horse is speeding up or slowing down. You can tell if a horse is a closer.
Do you use something like Trakus data for ground loss?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:13 pm

Starnne

I am glad I found this forum it looks to be very clean and have seen no name calling or fighting. A lot of Forum if you go in and post your pick and tell why some people get pissed off because they can not stand to have some one who is better than they are (not saying I am better) but have had my moment as have most who look at horses. I have cashed a lot of IRS tickets in the past and a lot of straight tickets some have been posted on the internet. One time a paper in OKC did a two-page spread about me before the derby and a TV news channel pick up on it. They had me live on Friday before the derby at Remington park in front of a TV with a friend watching the Oaks where I made a comment which when out live on TV, “in a few minutes when Rags To Riches win the Oaks she will be back in 5 weeks and win the Belmont.” I also have had bad moments like last year Derby the week before the race had it picked straight when they drew post I dropped the horse who ran second so I ADD A NEW RULE PLAY A TICKED LIKE YOU HAVE THEM BEFORE POST DRAW.
BigDonOKC
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Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:26 pm

Curtis
/
Stark
No on Trakas I use the chart of last race. For me given up ground is simple he does not let horses get by him some call it heart
stark
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Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:57 pm

I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:45 pm

10 race at Tampa Bay 2-10-2018 10 point derby prep race.
Catholic Boy has 10 points does not give up ground has won 3 of 4 he has ran 1 mile in 18.5 yps ,1 1/16 mile in 18.7 yps but his last race was slow 17.7 yps but was not being push and was 4.75 on top
He is the only horse in this field other than Vino Rosso who ran his last race in 17.82

The question in this race is who is faster 1 or 3 #1 has a speed fig. of 87 where he ran second and #3 has a speed fig. of 84 and there time was about the same but these horses are not the same one is a winner.
BigDonOKC
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Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:04 pm

Hollywood star last race was slowraces before where not bad but has to improve to get on my list do not see in top two.
BigDonOKC
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Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:04 pm

Hollywood star last race was slowraces before where not bad but has to improve to get on my list do not see in top two.
stark
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Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:29 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:Hollywood star last race was slowraces before where not bad but has to improve to get on my list do not see in top two.
He scratched from the HolyBull to run in this spot. His last race that you reference was the G1 BreedersCup. That's a long way from the G3 Sam Davis. Obviously he didn't like the DelMar oval, just draw a line thru that race and he looks okay here in my opinion, 2nd favorite at 5/2 that I think will drift upwards, just like I think the 8/5 morning line on CatholicBoy will drift downwards.

?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:49 pm

stark wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:Hollywood star last race was slowraces before where not bad but has to improve to get on my list do not see in top two.
He scratched from the HolyBull to run in this spot. His last race that you reference was the G1 BreedersCup. That's a long way from the G3 Sam Davis. Obviously he didn't like the DelMar oval, just draw a line thru that race and he looks okay here in my opinion, 2nd favorite at 5/2 that I think will drift upwards, just like I think the 8/5 morning line on CatholicBoy will drift downwards.

?
You can forgive one race or should you?
Will a good horse bounce to drift down would be a bounce? :)
stark
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Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:00 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:
You can forgive one race or should you?
Yes, I can forgive a race and just draw a line thru it when all things are considered.

That race was against the best 2YOs in America on a surface he didn't like (he wasn't the only one who didn't like DelMar)

His trainer has done a good job picking this spot for his return off some very solid works including the 59 bullet on Jan 27.

He should naturally mature some from 2 to 3 so it's doubtful we've seen his best race yet.

I would need about 7/2 at post time to bet on him, especially if Catholic Boy is at an unbettable 6/5 or so.

My biggest concern is the lack of pace in the race, somebody could steal it if they get brave, this guy is another closer.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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