Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool - 2018

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PJMIII
Posts: 9550
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:12 am

Fri Nov 24, 2017 11:10 am

Pool 1 of Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens Thursday for 20th time

The 20th year of Churchill Downs offering parimutuel futures on the Kentucky Derby starts Thursday when the first of four pools toward the 2018 Derby opens at noon Eastern.

http://www.drf.com/news/pool-1-kentucky ... -20th-time
PJMIII
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Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:12 am

Mon Nov 27, 2017 11:42 am

Kentucky Derby Future Wager: Field favored at 6-5 as Pool 1 closes

The mutuel field, the 24th or "all others" option, closed as usual as a decisive favorite in Pool 1 of the 2018 Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which closed Sunday at 6 p.m. Eastern after a four-day wagering window.

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby- ... l-1-closes
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Dusty
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Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:32 am

I took a few shots..never understand why anyone would bet the OTHER at this point
May they run with the WIND
Forry Cow How
Posts: 98
Joined: Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:52 am

Tue Nov 28, 2017 8:47 am

I took a few shots, too. Just for fun. Let's see if any even make it to the Derby.
stark
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Location: SoCal

Tue Nov 28, 2017 12:43 pm

Forry Cow How wrote:I took a few shots, too. Just for fun. Let's see if any even make it to the Derby.
.

Good luck to you and Dusty, enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts, hopefully all the way to the first Saturday in May.

In this crazy world we live in we've all done questionable things with our money and I always get a kick out of the naysayers who poo-poo future book wagers citing what a terrible bet they are. The implication being that all our other bets made on racedays are good ones, LOL.

Enjoy!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
thinair
Posts: 1643
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:46 pm

Tue Nov 28, 2017 1:28 pm

stark wrote:
Forry Cow How wrote:I took a few shots, too. Just for fun. Let's see if any even make it to the Derby.
.

Good luck to you and Dusty, enjoy the ride for as long as it lasts, hopefully all the way to the first Saturday in May.

In this crazy world we live in we've all done questionable things with our money and I always get a kick out of the naysayers who poo-poo future book wagers citing what a terrible bet they are. The implication being that all our other bets made on racedays are good ones, LOL.

Enjoy!
Actually, the emboldened words aren't fair ( even if obviously true ), because when you make a bet on raceday, you know who you are betting against, whereas in the Derby Futures pool, you don't. That is the real reason they are bad bets. Don't get me wrong, if someone wants to make a nominal bet for fun, I totally get that, but if CDI opened the pool up to all nominations, and they could find a way to do this by assigning a number to each horse that corresponds, say, to a trifecta wagering combination, then it would not be a blind pool, and it would be a much fairer wager. This also gets back to the person that doesn't understand why anyone would bet "other" even though this has proven over time to be the soundest wager. Don't forget, everyone doesn't bet nominal amounts.
stark
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Location: SoCal

Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:12 pm

thinair wrote:
Actually, the emboldened words aren't fair ( even if obviously true ), because when you make a bet on raceday, you know who you are betting against, whereas in the Derby Futures pool, you don't. That is the real reason they are bad bets. Don't get me wrong, if someone wants to make a nominal bet for fun, I totally get that, but if CDI opened the pool up to all nominations, and they could find a way to do this by assigning a number to each horse that corresponds, say, to a trifecta wagering combination, then it would not be a blind pool, and it would be a much fairer wager. This also gets back to the person that doesn't understand why anyone would bet "other" even though this has proven over time to be the soundest wager. Don't forget, everyone doesn't bet nominal amounts.
Here you go, about 250 individual entries, just phone a friend in Vegas and enjoy taking a shot on a horse like Analyze It who at 125/1 might be your bargain!

http://www.viewfromvegas.com/uploads/20 ... _11-16.pdf
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
PJMIII
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Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:12 am

Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:59 am

Pool 2 is set for Feb. 9-11, Pool 3 for March 9-11, and Pool 4 for April 6-8. The Kentucky Oaks future wager will coincide with Pool 3.
PJMIII
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Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:20 am

"All Other" 3-year-olds Favored in KDFW Pool 2

Good Magic and Bolt d'Oro are the co-second choices at 8-1.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... dfw-pool-2
stark
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Location: SoCal

Sun Mar 11, 2018 4:59 pm

Justify down to 8-1 on the @KentuckyDerby Future Wager, Bolt D'oro up to 6-1. McKinzie 8-1, All other three year olds favored at 5-1. @churchilldowns.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
PJMIII
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Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:12 am

Wed Apr 04, 2018 10:15 am

Bolt d'Oro Tops KDFW Pool 4 Morning-Line Odds

A tightly-grouped foursome headed by Ruis Racing's San Felipe Stakes (G2) winner Bolt d'Oro (#2, 5-1) sits atop the morning-line odds for the 24 wagering interests set for this weekend's fourth and final pool of Churchill Downs' Kentucky Derby Future Wager ("KDFW"), which launches its three-day run Friday, April 6 and will conclude on Sunday, April 8.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... -line-odds
stark
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Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:47 pm

Its closed now.

Justify took the action, morning line of 6/1 bet down to a too-short 3/1.
Mendelsohn took good money too, morning line of 10/1 down to 5/1 at closing.

Audible 7/1, MagnumMoon 8/1, Good Magic and Bd'oro are both at 9/1.

Hoffburg took action off a morning line of 30, down to 22. Noble Indy dropped from 30 down to 20.

The rest are all pretty big numbers up to InstilledRegard and Title Ready @ 99-1.

The all-others category drifted up from 10/1 to 17/1.

TVG had a nice promotion, get your money back if you don't make it into the starting gate!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Location: SoCal

Mon Apr 09, 2018 3:29 pm

The lowest $2 exacta will-pay is the combination of Justify over Mendelssohn (12-15), worth $47.60.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Thu May 03, 2018 2:53 pm

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Bettors with the foresight to back Mendelssohn in the first two pools of the 2018 Kentucky Derby Future Wager are among those sitting on the biggest overlays as the 144th Derby at Churchill Downs draws near.

Mendelssohn, the 5-1 second choice on the Churchill morning line for Saturday,
closed at 31-1 in Pool 1
and 44-1 in Pool 2.
Other overlays include
Magnum Moon, 25-1 in Pool 3;
Vino Rosso, 39-1 in Pool 3;
Noble Indy, 60-1 in Pool 3;
Lone Sailor, 100-1 in Pool 1;
and Instilled Regard, 104-1 in Pool 4.

Undervalued futures prices include
Instilled Regard at 18-1 in Pool 2
and Promises Fulfilled at 24-1 in Pool 3.
Also, making early plays on Bolt d’Oro was no real bargain, as his respective odds in the four pools were 7-1, 8-1, 7-1, and 9-1.

Bettors who used the field in the first two pools are in a good position, as the following Derby starters were included in both: Justify, Magnum Moon, Vino Rosso, My Boy Jack, Hofburg, and Flameaway. Audible also was in the Pool 1 field. The field was favored in the first three pools – at 6-5, 5-2, and 4-1 – before closing at 17-1 in the last pool.

Besides Bolt d’Oro, only four other horses were individual interests in all four pools: Free Drop Billy, Good Magic, Mendelssohn, and Solomini.

Individual interests to make the Derby lineup: eight in Pool 1; nine in Pool 2; 16 in Pool 3; and 18 in Pool 4.

The three most prominent horses to miss the Derby all were individual interests in the first three pools: Avery Island, McKinzie, and Sporting Chance.

Churchill has offered parimutuel futures since 1999. The most notable winning overlays included Funny Cide at 93-1 in Pool 1 in 2003, and Always Dreaming at 42-1 in Pool 3 last year. The biggest underlay was Giacomo (2005), who was 25-1 in Pool 1 before winning at 50-1 Derby Day odds.

Aggregate handle of $1,709,679 (win and exacta) for 2018 was the highest in the 20-year history of the futures, surpassing the record ($1,665,990) set in 2005. That figure does not include the Oaks futures (concurrent with Pool 3) and the Derby Sire futures (concurrent with Pool 1), which drew combined handle of $42,953.

Clearly the best bet in the Sire futures was on the late Scat Daddy at 26-1. He has four Derby starters in Justify, Mendelssohn, Flameaway, and Combatant. Curlin (6-1) has three starters in Good Magic, Vino Rosso, and Solomini, while Medaglia d’Oro (5-1 favorite) is the only other sire with multiple starters (Bolt d’Oro and Enticed). The field (eight starters) was a close 5-1 second choice.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
Posts: 4156
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Wed May 09, 2018 12:18 am

I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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