BC CLASSIC 1-1/4 Dirt Saturday R12

stark
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Tue Oct 31, 2017 11:41 am

1 Arrogate (KY) 4/C L M E Smith 126 B Baffert 2/1
2 War Decree (KY) 3/C L1 S Heffernan 122 A P O'Brien 30/1
3 Win the Space (KY) 5/H L J Talamo 126 G Papaprodromou 30/1
4 War Story (KY) 5/G L J L Ortiz 126 J Navarro 30/1
5 Gun Runner (KY) 4/C L F Geroux 126 S M Asmussen 9/5
6 Mubtaahij (IRE) 5/H L D Van Dyke 126 B Baffert 12/1
7 Churchill (IRE) 3/C L1 R L Moore 122 A P O'Brien 15/1
8 West Coast (KY) 3/C L J Castellano 122 B Baffert 6/1
9 Gunnevera (KY) 3/C L E J Zayas 122 A Sano 30/1
10 Pavel (KY) 3/C L M Gutierrez 122 D F O'Neill 20/1
11 Collected (KY) 4/C L M Garcia 126 B Baffert 6/1
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Tue Oct 31, 2017 12:12 pm

1 Arrogate Bob Baffert The question is whether he can produce his "A" race at Del Mar. If he can, he'll win, and win decisively 2-1
2 War Decree Aidan O'Brien Not as accomplished as stablemate Churchill, but it's intriguing he recently won a synthetic prep for this 30-1
3 Win the Space George Papaprodromou Was an improved third in the Awesome Again; likes minor shares, was eased at 74-1 in last year's Classic 30-1
4 War Story Jorge Navarro He actually has some ability, but has proven time and again that he is terribly overmatched at this level 50-1
5 Gun Runner Steve Asmussen In raging form since his 2nd to Arrogate in Dubai, but note he is 0 for 3 in his career going 10 furlongs 8-5
6 Mubtaahij Bob Baffert Won the Awesome Again off a long layoff in his first start for barn and with blinkers; still must improve 20-1
7 Churchill Aidan O'Brien Signaled a return to top form very recently at Ascot; dirt is a huge question, as is this 10 furlong distance 12-1
8 West Coast Bob Baffert This year's best 3-year-old deserves a shot at this. Nevertheless, he faces a much tougher group of elders 8-1
9 Gunnevera Antonio Sano Surprised when second to West Coast in the Travers, but was soundly beaten, and is overmatched here 30-1
10 Pavel Doug O'Neill This 3-year-old is long on talent, and very short on experience. Expect he'll be a major force next year 20-1
11 Collected Bob Baffert Upset Arrogate in Del Mar's Pacific Classic going 10 furlongs and is 8 for 11 in his career; he's legitimate 6-1
- Odds and comments by Mike Watchmaker @ DRF
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Izvestia
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Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:16 am

Gun Runner
Arrogate
West Coast
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Life At Zen
Posts: 1655
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:52 pm

Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:18 am

Gun Runner
Arrogate
Gunnevera
A R R O G A T E
Paradise Woods, Lady Eli, Songbird, Ziconic
Gormley, Royal Mo, Shaman Ghost, Constellation

Once upon a time there was a horse named Kelso.
But only once. ~Joe Hirsch
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Ballerina
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Location: Chesapeake, VA & Saratoga, NY

Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:23 am

Gun Runner
West Coast
Gunnevera
Arrogate
stark
Posts: 4011
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
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Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:47 pm

Stupid bet costing $48.
$1 Trifecta and Superfecta box of the 4 Baffert horses.
Gonna make it first thing in the morning so I don't forget or lose all my money before the last race.

Just because.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Apollo
Posts: 293
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:05 pm

Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:15 am

I'm picking Arrogate. Throughout my sports betting career I've ignored current form in favor of ability level. It wasn't exactly a difficult decision. From the first day I arrived in Las Vegas in 1984 I noticed that everybody was obsessed with current form -- "That team is playing good!" -- yet virtually everyone was losing. Okay, so the one thing I'm not going to do is prioritize current form.

It was a fantastic decision but I concede it attaches better to sports than horse racing. Still, I don't like to rely on subjective decisions when a system/angle is so comparatively simple and stress free. If Arrogate loses I won't exactly second guess myself. I'll apply ability over current form the next time. Volume and an edge.

If Arrogate loses I would expect it would be to West Coast. He is young and his ability level is not fully a known quantity.
stark
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Location: SoCal

Sat Nov 04, 2017 10:09 am

Anxiously awaiting news if Pavel has a shot according to the sheets?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Curtis
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Sat Nov 04, 2017 11:41 am

I think Arrogate will win for fun.

Arrogate
West Coast
Collected
Gun Runner
tcw
Posts: 1086
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:18 am

Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:47 pm

Curtis wrote:I think Arrogate will win for fun.

Arrogate
West Coast
Collected
Gun Runner
Agreed. "If" Arrogate runs his "A" race, he wins. It's really that simple. If not, I wouldn't count out another B2 entry, Collected. We already know he likes the surface when he won the Pacific Classic at this same distance of 10F in a pretty decent time of 2:00 and 3.

On a side note, it should be evident to see how Arrogate is going to fare based on how he goes the first 4F out of the 1-hole.

Really looking forward to it... should be a good one.
Tessablue
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Sat Nov 04, 2017 1:59 pm

I don't know, I think Arrogate's A race wins this by a pole and his B race still wins it or gets close. He had a substantially worse trip than Collected in the Pacific Classic and still only missed by a bit, with a Beyer that exceeded all but one of Gun Runner's- and we still don't know how Gun Runner will finish at 10f (or in California, I haven't really seen it mentioned that his Dirt Mile at Santa Anita last year was not one of his better efforts).

I really can't figure out what to do with Collected, because a win wouldn't surprise me but neither would a poor finish. His best race puts him right up there but I have this nagging feeling that he fired his best shot in the Pacific Classic.
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Treve
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Sat Nov 04, 2017 2:08 pm

On the one hand I hope Arrogate wins. It would be amazing if he could become the first horse to capture the DWC and the BCC in the same year, and it could mean a legit series for olders... PWC, DWC, BCC (I'm still set on that order :lol: ) but on the other hand there's quite a few horses in here that are easy to root for.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Ballerina
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Location: Chesapeake, VA & Saratoga, NY

Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:07 pm

I KNEW IT. I KNEW IT. I KEW YOU COULD DO IT. WHO LOVES YA, BABY BOY?!~

I am emotionally and physically exhausted but so very, very happy.
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Treve
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Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:11 pm

Ballerina wrote:I KNEW IT. I KNEW IT. I KEW YOU COULD DO IT. WHO LOVES YA, BABY BOY?!~

I am emotionally and physically exhausted but so very, very happy.
I'm over the moon for you, Bal! :D
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Ballerina
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Location: Chesapeake, VA & Saratoga, NY

Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:28 pm

Treve wrote:
Ballerina wrote:I KNEW IT. I KNEW IT. I KEW YOU COULD DO IT. WHO LOVES YA, BABY BOY?!~

I am emotionally and physically exhausted but so very, very happy.
I'm over the moon for you, Bal! :D
Thank you, Treve. I'm hearing the sound of a lot of jaws dropping. :-)
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Insane Crazy
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Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:32 pm

Didn't know you were such a big GR fanboy, Bal. He's such a superstar!
Not a wholesome trottin' race, no, but a race where they sit down right on the horse!
Like to see some stuck-up jockey boy sittin' on Dan Patch? Make your blood boil? Well, I should say!
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Ballerina
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Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:37 pm

Insane Crazy wrote:Didn't know you were such a big GR fanboy, Bal. He's such a superstar!
You didn't know? LOL! Surely you jest, or you didn't read the thread I started on him.
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Insane Crazy
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Sat Nov 04, 2017 9:44 pm

Ballerina wrote:
Insane Crazy wrote:Didn't know you were such a big GR fanboy, Bal. He's such a superstar!
You didn't know? LOL! Surely you jest, or you didn't read the thread I started on him.
I probably did know, at some point, but I've long forgotten...like most things. :D Been in and out a lot the past year or so. But hey! High five! I love him SO much and I'm so glad he's getting his time to shine.
Not a wholesome trottin' race, no, but a race where they sit down right on the horse!
Like to see some stuck-up jockey boy sittin' on Dan Patch? Make your blood boil? Well, I should say!
Izvestia
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Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Sun Nov 05, 2017 12:25 am

Gun Runner will most certainly be HOY off this win. What an impressive win, getting dogged all the way round by Collected, then digging in and pulling away. GR has some grit.
Collected surprised me again, I really thought he was an 8-9 furlong horse.
Apollo
Posts: 293
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:05 pm

Sun Nov 05, 2017 6:15 am

I never would have had that one.

Don't like seeing that trainer celebrating.
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