Breeders' Cup Favorites

Kennedy
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Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Tue Oct 10, 2017 1:34 pm

Who are they?

And which ones are locks?

Here are my predicted favorites at this point
Classic - Arrogate
Turf - Ulysees
Mile - World Approval
Sprint - Drefong
Dirt Mile - Mor Spirit
Turf Sprint - Lady Aurelia?
Distaff - Stellar Wind
FM Turf - Lady Eli
FM Sprint - Unique Bella
Juvenile - Bolt D'Oro
Juvenile Turf - Whoever Aiden O'Brien sends
Juvenile Fillies - Moonshine Memories
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Significant Form
Kennedy
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Tue Oct 10, 2017 4:14 pm

Classic - Arrogate
I am likely going to stick with the champ. I think he gets it done.

Turf - Ulysees
I think the race is likely more wide open and the favorite should be strongly considered but so should many others

Mile - World Approval
I think he's an extremely solid favorite

Sprint - Drefong
I will likely stick with him but he's no lock

Dirt Mile - Mor Spirit
Favorites are 2 for 10 with a lot of out of the money finishes. Mor Spirit is the best horse but I feel like the layoff makes him pretty vulnerable because I don't think he is likely to run his best race.

Turf Sprint - Lady Aurelia
If she is favored I think I would be against her. The older sprinters are pretty good this year. Her reputation is huge but this won't be an easy group to beat

Distaff - Stellar Wind
Her worst races have come in all the big events and there are tons of quality options to choose from

FM Turf - Lady Eli
I think she puts her unlucky loss last year to bed.

FM Sprint - Unique Bella
3yo's who start at less than 10/1 in this race are a combined 15-0-2-1 with an astonishing 6 favorites among them. Older Fillies when favored are 4-3-1-0 but 3yo's have really taken a beating. For me that makes me nervous of Bella even though she is a special talent. The older mares aren't too shabby in here. I think I may shade against her.

Juvenile - Bolt D'Oro
This horse deserves to be favored and will take a ton of beating. Young horses are rarely indestructible but I see no reason to doubt this guy.

Juvenile Turf - Whoever Aiden O'Brien sends
This race is completely up in the air.

Juvenile Fillies - Moonshine Memories
I don't think she's good enough to scare people. She doesn't really scare me.

Juvenile Fillies Turf - Significant Form
Looked decent but failed to really separate herself from any of the others. Wide open.
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Starine
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Location: South Carolina

Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:29 pm

O'Brien says he may bring over Roly Poly for the F/M Turf. Do you think she would go favored if she starts?
Senator L
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Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:58 pm

Classic - fav Arrogate or Gun Runner I think it will be pretty close 6/5 9/5 type of deal
Turf - fav Highland Reel everyone knows about him loving firm ground
Mile - World Approval top of the division right now seems like a lock
Sprint - Drefong and Roy H - California boys
Dirt Mile - Mor Spirit or Practical Joke
Turf Sprint - Lady Aurelia? I think Disco Partner goes favored. Hard to overlook his track records
Distaff - Stellar Wind favored but her record for a 1 1/8 races isn't good
FM Turf - Lady Eli for sure but personally have soft spot for Avenge especially at a 1 1/8
FM Sprint - Finely'sluckycharm wire job
Juvenile - Bolt D'Oro
Juvenile Turf -
Juvenile Fillies - Moonshine Memories
Juvenile Fillies
No one has ever bet enough on a winning horse.
Richard Sasuly
barbaro111
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Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:25 pm

Starine wrote:O'Brien says he may bring over Roly Poly for the F/M Turf. Do you think she would go favored if she starts?
I admit to loving her name--I mean who couldn't love the name Rory Poly--and she is talented to boot
barbaro111
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Tue Oct 10, 2017 9:26 pm

barbaro111 wrote:
Starine wrote:O'Brien says he may bring over Roly Poly for the F/M Turf. Do you think she would go favored if she starts?
I admit to loving her name--I mean who couldn't love the name Rory Poly--and she is talented to boot
Of course my tablet mispelled her name
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Diver52
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Location: Redlands, CA

Wed Oct 11, 2017 12:37 am

Those little segmented bugs we used to call pill bugs (because they roll up into a ball when you touch them) are sometimes called " rolly pollies." We also called them sow bugs. :(
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
BaroqueAgain1
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Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Wed Oct 11, 2017 3:04 pm

The Turf Sprint was already looking to be a tremendous race with Lady Aurelia, Bataash and Disco Partner, but it just got even better. :o
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/bree ... rf-sprint/

Marsha defeated Lady A by a head and Bataash has beaten Marsha, so this could be a helluva showdown. Wonder if NY's grey pocket rocket will surprise them all? :P :mrgreen:
Tessablue
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Location: Boston

Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:03 pm

The Turf Sprint is going to be awesome, although I'm a little bummed out that Green Mask was retired because he was so good this year and would have been very competitive. Wouldn't be at all shocked if Gun Runner is a clear favorite, Unique Bella and Bolt d'Oro will be odds-on for sure and Drefong will be very short as well.

Personally, the only favorite I love at the moment is Bolt d'Oro. Can't wait to bet on Imperial Hint and I'm honestly really considering Gunnevera as a big longshot in the Classic.
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Starine
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Location: South Carolina

Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:34 pm

I would be surprised if Gun Runner went favored, and speechless if he went off a clear favorite. I just can't see it happening unless Arrogate doesn't start (knock on wood).
Tessablue
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Location: Boston

Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:08 pm

Gun Runner is currently even while Arrogate is at ~5/2 in the offshore betting, Vegas has them at 6/5 and 3-1. I'm sure uncertainty towards Arrogate's starting status is a factor and early betting can be very misleading, but I really think Gun Runner will see a lot of money. There could definitely be an element of wishful thinking on my part, however! I'm not really planning on using GR in my Classic bets at present so the more money he takes, the better.
thinair
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Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:35 pm

Significant Form won't even be the shortest price from Chad Brown in that race, much less the favorite. Rushing Fall feels like a cinch to be favored....and rightfully so.
Kennedy
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:15 am

Starine wrote:O'Brien says he may bring over Roly Poly for the F/M Turf. Do you think she would go favored if she starts?
I honestly can't see people backing anyone other than Lady Eli into favoritism in that race. She has been favored 12 out of 13 starts, she's really good and she's got a big emotional following as well.
Kennedy
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 11:14 am

thinair wrote:Significant Form won't even be the shortest price from Chad Brown in that race, much less the favorite. Rushing Fall feels like a cinch to be favored....and rightfully so.
After the running the of the Jessamine I think that's pretty clear....in my defense I wrote that days before the Jessamine. At any rate it'll be Rushing Fall vs the europeans for favoritism and given Brown's record I think she will likely be favored and tough to beat.
thinair
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:43 pm

Kennedy wrote:
thinair wrote:Significant Form won't even be the shortest price from Chad Brown in that race, much less the favorite. Rushing Fall feels like a cinch to be favored....and rightfully so.
After the running the of the Jessamine I think that's pretty clear....in my defense I wrote that days before the Jessamine. At any rate it'll be Rushing Fall vs the europeans for favoritism and given Brown's record I think she will likely be favored and tough to beat.

That's true....but her maiden win was better than either of Significant Form's races.
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Ballerina
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:45 pm

Classic - Gun Runner
Mile - Bal A Bali
Juvenile - Free Drop Billy :)
Juvenile Turf - Roaring Lion
Turf Mile - Beach Patrol
Dirt Mile - Cupid
Turf Sprint - Lady Aurelia
Sprint - Roy H
Distaff - Abel Tasman
F&M Turf - Lady Eli
Pure Silver - Juvenile Fillies
Finley'sluckycharm - F&M Sprint
Rushing Fall - Filly Juvenile turf
Kennedy
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:04 pm

thinair wrote:
Kennedy wrote:
thinair wrote:Significant Form won't even be the shortest price from Chad Brown in that race, much less the favorite. Rushing Fall feels like a cinch to be favored....and rightfully so.
After the running the of the Jessamine I think that's pretty clear....in my defense I wrote that days before the Jessamine. At any rate it'll be Rushing Fall vs the europeans for favoritism and given Brown's record I think she will likely be favored and tough to beat.

That's true....but her maiden win was better than either of Significant Form's races.
Agreed but whenever a 2yo has just one race under their belt I'm a bit more cautious towards them in terms of their potential in a race that is not their next start. I generally prefer a solid stakes win over a brilliant maiden win. Doesn't always work out but it is my natural bias.
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Curtis
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:08 pm

Ballerina wrote:Classic - Gun Runner
Mile - Bal A Bali
Juvenile - Free Drop Billy :)
Juvenile Turf - Roaring Lion
Turf Mile - Beach Patrol
Dirt Mile - Cupid
Turf Sprint - Lady Aurelia
Sprint - Roy H
Distaff - Abel Tasman
F&M Turf - Lady Eli
Pure Silver - Juvenile Fillies
Finley'sluckycharm - F&M Sprint
Rushing Fall - Filly Juvenile turf
Do you really think these will go off favored? If so, I'll be betting with both hands.
thinair
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Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:24 pm

Personally, I think one of the worst things you can do as a bettor is hamper yourself with opinions weeks in advance of any race. You don't know what the field is finally going to look like, how it looks on paper, and what posts are drawn. You will deny yourself exactly the objectivity needed to handicap successfully.
BaroqueAgain1
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Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:12 pm

This place would pretty dull if we all denied ourselves the pleasure of speculating about how the races may shape up....before the fields are officially drawn. :P :lol:
Whether our opinions are logical or outrageous, it's a fun conversation. And IMHO, early 'what if's' about how horses may do in races doesn't mean our handicappers won't have objectivity when the time comes to actually place a wager. ;)
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