Justify vs AP at stud

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Retrospectiv
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Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:27 pm

Ziggypop wrote:
The sale price for AP was never disclosed but it was substantially lower because the deal was made when he was still 2yos.
Someone commented on Paulick that AP is cryptorchid which is why he didn't command the big bucks. That was the first I heard such a thing.
Lots of stallions have been crytorchids, didn't effect most of them. Seattle Slew line has a lot of them, including AP Indy...
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Private Thoughts
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Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:09 pm

Somnambulist wrote:Scat Daddy was standing for $100k at the time of his death, right? They'll get $200k easy for him I think.

Is this the first time a stud farm will stand two TC winners at the same time? (is this deal even concrete?)
No, Spendthrift stood Seattle Slew and Affirmed.

Calumet stood Whirlaway and Citation, though not at the same time, I don't believe. I think by the time Citation arrived on the scene, Whirlaway had been sent to France.
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Miss Woodford
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Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:41 pm

Private Thoughts wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:Scat Daddy was standing for $100k at the time of his death, right? They'll get $200k easy for him I think.

Is this the first time a stud farm will stand two TC winners at the same time? (is this deal even concrete?)
No, Spendthrift stood Seattle Slew and Affirmed.

Calumet stood Whirlaway and Citation, though not at the same time, I don't believe. I think by the time Citation arrived on the scene, Whirlaway had been sent to France.
Yes, Whirlaway was moved to France in 1951, a year before Citation went to stud.

Claiborne stood Omaha alongside his sire Gallant Fox (and his grandsire Sir Gallahad) from 1938-1942 after which Omaha was sent to New York and then to Nebraska.
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Treve
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:48 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:IMHO, when it comes to breeding, sometimes the race record, no matter how stellar, doesn't carry the same weight as how well that sireline is doing in producing winners. As has been pointed out, the Unbridled/Empire Maker/PotN line has been very productive, and that may make 'Pharoah more attractive than Justify.
Scat Daddy already has sons like No Nay Never at stud with runners on the track. How are they doing? Are they showing that SD is a sire-of-sires? :?
No Nay Never is doing well but he's the only son of Scat Daddy I'd say is doing well. He has one son doing regionally ok in Florida I think on the sales front and his lone starter to date is a winner at first outing. The other sons he has who entered stud in 2015 and therefore should have offspring of racing age stand for like 3000$... one of them I don't think even got any mares in his first year at stud.
Somnambulist wrote:Scat Daddy was standing for $100k at the time of his death, right? They'll get $200k easy for him I think.
But Justify is not Scat Daddy and Scat Daddy does not come from a multigenerational line of potent sires. Not only is Empire Maker and his sons emerging as a massive sires of sires line, but it actually goes well back to Unbridled and Fappiano to Mr. Prospector. There isn't a single weak link in that line, even if Empire didn't at first perform the way Juddmonte wanted, he has done well enough to be bought back to the U.S. Grand Daddy, the full to Scat Daddy is still standing in South America with apparently no interest to bring him back, despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis. Johannesburg is in Japan and getting up there in the years so he's not gonna be brought back and to my knowledge Scat Daddy's dam wasn't recently sent to him again. I think Scat Daddy has the potential to be a sire of sires but it isn't established yet. It's clear Coolmore believes in the potential but they aren't pushing for more than what the market will tolerate. I don't think the market will tolerate 200k for Justify, whether Coolmore or someone else stands him. (And as a matter of fact, I'm also kinda skeptical that Coolmore will even get him)

Coolmore isn't even asking for more than 35 000€ for Caravaggio (and No Nay Never stands at 25 000€). If Coolmore gets Justify for sure they don't get 200k for him. The price difference betwen Caravaggio and No Nay Never I suspect has to do with their damsides (and their race records of course) but they both have decent and more than decent 1st, 2nd and 3rd BM sires on their damside that are also proven as sires of sires. Caravaggio has Holy Bull and Relaunch, No Nay Never has Elusive Quality.

Ghostzapper is shaping up to be quite the BM sire but so far none of his sons at stud have done much of anything so even if you're trying to look for 'sire of sires' influence on his distaff side there isn't there in the immediate. Another thing is Justify is inbred 3 times to Mr Prospector at a time where there are so many horses with Mr Prospector in their first 4 generation pedigree it's now become a selling point for stallions who are free of Mr P in their first 4 generations.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Flanders
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:19 am

Somnambulist wrote:(is this deal even concrete?)
Nothing has been announced either way. But the rumors have been circling, only time will tell if its true or not. On one hand I find it hard to believe WinStar would sell a TC winner but they would still syndicate him. So maybe they are only selling controlling interest to Coolmore?
Treve wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:IMHO, when it comes to breeding, sometimes the race record, no matter how stellar, doesn't carry the same weight as how well that sireline is doing in producing winners. As has been pointed out, the Unbridled/Empire Maker/PotN line has been very productive, and that may make 'Pharoah more attractive than Justify.
Scat Daddy already has sons like No Nay Never at stud with runners on the track. How are they doing? Are they showing that SD is a sire-of-sires? :?
No Nay Never is doing well but he's the only son of Scat Daddy I'd say is doing well. He has one son doing regionally ok in Florida I think on the sales front and his lone starter to date is a winner at first outing. The other sons he has who entered stud in 2015 and therefore should have offspring of racing age stand for like 3000$... one of them I don't think even got any mares in his first year at stud.

But Justify is not Scat Daddy and Scat Daddy does not come from a multigenerational line of potent sires. Not only is Empire Maker and his sons emerging as a massive sires of sires line, but it actually goes well back to Unbridled and Fappiano to Mr. Prospector. There isn't a single weak link in that line, even if Empire didn't at first perform the way Juddmonte wanted, he has done well enough to be bought back to the U.S. Grand Daddy, the full to Scat Daddy is still standing in South America with apparently no interest to bring him back, despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis. Johannesburg is in Japan and getting up there in the years so he's not gonna be brought back and to my knowledge Scat Daddy's dam wasn't recently sent to him again. I think Scat Daddy has the potential to be a sire of sires but it isn't established yet. It's clear Coolmore believes in the potential but they aren't pushing for more than what the market will tolerate. I don't think the market will tolerate 200k for Justify, whether Coolmore or someone else stands him. (And as a matter of fact, I'm also kinda skeptical that Coolmore will even get him)

Coolmore isn't even asking for more than 35 000€ for Caravaggio (and No Nay Never stands at 25 000€). If Coolmore gets Justify for sure they don't get 200k for him. The price difference betwen Caravaggio and No Nay Never I suspect has to do with their damsides (and their race records of course) but they both have decent and more than decent 1st, 2nd and 3rd BM sires on their damside that are also proven as sires of sires. Caravaggio has Holy Bull and Relaunch, No Nay Never has Elusive Quality.

Ghostzapper is shaping up to be quite the BM sire but so far none of his sons at stud have done much of anything so even if you're trying to look for 'sire of sires' influence on his distaff side there isn't there in the immediate. Another thing is Justify is inbred 3 times to Mr Prospector at a time where there are so many horses with Mr Prospector in their first 4 generation pedigree it's now become a selling point for stallions who are free of Mr P in their first 4 generations.
No Nay Never and Caravaggio are both turf sprinters. They never command the stud fees of a classic distance horse when they first go to stud.

The thing with the Scat Daddy's that have gone to stud, none were G1SW on the dirt. All of them that have foals of racing age, their first foals of racing age are 2. Bloodhorse has Finale as entering stud in 2014 but he raced that spring and didn't cover any mares. His first foals are 2yos too. You can't judge a stallion as a sire of sires who only has sons at stud with 2yos when its June.

I think they can get 150-200k easily. He is an undefeated Triple Crown winner, his sire was on fire and died young. There is only one crop of 2yos left from Scat Daddy, if his sons show they can sire good runners, he is worth that risk.
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:00 am

Treve wrote:despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis.
I feel that this reason alone is reason enough they could start him at $200k. And to echo Flanders his other sons didn't before to a legendary status on the dirt.

I really can't believe Winstar would sell a TC winner either but there is a price for anything.

Does anyone have a conformation photo of him? I haven't really seen a lot.
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Flanders
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:45 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Treve wrote:despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis.
I feel that this reason alone is reason enough they could start him at $200k. And to echo Flanders his other sons didn't before to a legendary status on the dirt.

I really can't believe Winstar would sell a TC winner either but there is a price for anything.

Does anyone have a conformation photo of him? I haven't really seen a lot.
The only one that I really remember seeing is the one where he is a yearling. https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/ne ... ib-justify
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:57 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Treve wrote:despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis.
I feel that this reason alone is reason enough they could start him at $200k. And to echo Flanders his other sons didn't before to a legendary status on the dirt.

I really can't believe Winstar would sell a TC winner either but there is a price for anything.

Does anyone have a conformation photo of him? I haven't really seen a lot.
I think that WinStar is the definition of the phrase "anything is for sale for the right price"
weeeeeeeee
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Miss Woodford
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:02 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Treve wrote:despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis.
I feel that this reason alone is reason enough they could start him at $200k. And to echo Flanders his other sons didn't before to a legendary status on the dirt.

I really can't believe Winstar would sell a TC winner either but there is a price for anything.

Does anyone have a conformation photo of him? I haven't really seen a lot.
Best I could find:
Image
Image

It's hard to find a really good photo of his legs because they're always bandaged. :?
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Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:42 pm

He's got a nice, deep shoulder and chest. Hindquarters look strong. Can't find much wrong with him. ;) 8-)
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Treve
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Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:19 am

He's an undefeated TC winner as of now, but where does that leave him if he loses against older males, or even up and coming 3yos down the line. What if he loses the classic or the PWC?
It's a little too early to call 200k, if the first TC winner in 37 years with ideal confo, 8 G1 wins out of 9, 9 Graded stakes wins out of 10 from an emerging branch of a well established sireline couldn't fill his book at 200k.
I still think 100-125k is more likely. I could see maybe up to 150k as the advertised fee with the 'real' fee being lower.

That yearling photo isn't a proper confo photo but he's slightly over at the knee there, long pasterned in the front, a little post-y in the back (things that could have changed as he's grown). He's also a little cow-hocked and toed out in the back in his yearling sales video or seems to be, especially while walking away at the end. But those things might have corrected as he's grown.

I do remember thinking he looked a little post-legged in the hind in some photos I've seen earlier on during his campaign but it's hard to say with photos that weren't caught with the intent of showing conformation. I don't see anything glaringly wrong or bothersome from the knees up though. His head is a little coarse maybe but that's aesthetic. He's got a nice hip, nice back, nice loin, good chest. Nice proportions. His shoulder maybe not a sloping as I'd like based on that yearling photo.

ETA: his shoulder looks better in those side view photos of him. But he's still post-legged in the back (from his stifle down to his pasterns) and his pasterns are too long in the front, still looks a little oatk. He's a bit longer hipped than I thought but I stand by everything else I said - he's got a great chest, nice proportions, nice loin, nice back and while long his hip is far from weak.
Also he's only 3yo so those pasterns could improve as tbs sometimes look long pasterned while they're still young and running but grow into them. Not sure it's likely in his case since his yearling photo showed the same thing (and the same disparity between his front and hind pasterns)
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Thu Jun 14, 2018 8:19 am

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Not the best but close lol
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Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:04 am

I haven't seen Justify in the flesh, but I can confirm that Pharoah is one of the most well-conformed horses I've ever laid eyes on. Not that my eyes have seen a lot of horse, but you know when one looks "amazing" when you see it. Everything about him is in-sync and balanced. Think "starting pitcher" sort of build. The perfect mechanics produce the speed and stamina. Even at a walk, he just glides without wasted motion. He's not an imposing individual and I think that matches well with almost any mare physically - add in the race record and the stallion line and he has all the makings of a stallion. He female family is his "weakness" - if you could call it that.

Justify I haven't seen in the flesh. From photos, he looks more like a imposing brut sort of horse. Muscle on muscle. Like a big runningback - the power producing the speed moreso than perfect mechanics. Like Curlin, perhaps? Bred to the right physical of mare, he could be successful. His sireline is sneaky potent - Storm Cat mixes SO well with other lines out there...Distorted Humor/Smart Strike/UBS etc plus the chance to start linebreeding back to him gives you something like Lady Aurelia.
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Thu Jun 14, 2018 9:26 am

To gush I really did just love to watch AP gallop. It was so fluid I felt hypnotized watching it. I hope I never lose my memory... watching him run by with some coffee in my hand is such a nice memory.

Treve, if he loses once or twice going forward I still feel like they can get away from it. I definitely don't know as much as a lot of you here but Scat Daddy's loss is so fresh and I think they could get the play off that. Who knows.

As an aside I really miss those conformation clinics we used to have on here. I learned so much.
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bare it all
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Mon Jun 18, 2018 10:39 am

I've now seen Justify in the flesh.

I was most certainly wow'd. Not just because of his accomplishments, but because he has a presence. Where American Pharoah is much like a child's pony you'd want to love on, Justify is all horse. Not in a mean way - just in a THIS IS ALL MINE sort of presence. He was brought out with 3YO maidens and those were some lovely horses (well bred group, tbh). He looked like a 5YO horse among them.
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Diver52
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Mon Jun 18, 2018 12:32 pm

It's too bad we won't get to see him as a 5 year old horse on the track. :-( Makes one appreciate Chrome's career all the more.
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Treve
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Mon Jun 18, 2018 1:02 pm

I really think Chrome losing his TC bid was a blessing in disguise. I spend hours daydreaming of what could have been if Pharoah had raced as an older. And what probably could be if Justify were to race as an older. Gun Runner is another example of a horse that only got better and stronger as an older male.

And thanks Coronado much better picture!
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Diver52
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Mon Jun 18, 2018 5:16 pm

We were also "lucky" that Chrome didn't have a very appealing pedigree so that his earning capacity on the track wasn't "negligible" compared to his stud fee possibility. I sometimes wish there could be a rule that half of all colts had to be gelded--it would certainly improve the quality of older-horse racing!
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
BaroqueAgain1
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Mon Jun 18, 2018 6:04 pm

If you like all-geldings-all-the-time racing, you should love the races in Hong Kong.
Japan, on the other hand, doesn't seem to geld any of its horses, no matter how rank or 'quirky' they are on the track. :shock: :lol:
I kind of like our more middle-of-the-road approach to the Ultimate Equipment Change. ;)
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