Justify vs AP at stud

Justify vs AP at stud

Postby bare it all » Mon Jun 11, 2018 9:57 am

So, Pharaoh WAS the only living Triple Crown winner.... is his value now as a stud diminished and devalued because we have Justify? Plus, you can easily breed to AP's sire who is beyond proven himself. I think he was standing in the neighborhood of $75-85K past season, but someone might have better insight there.

What do you think the Coolmore boys will post Justify at? A Triple Crown winning son of the prolific but ill-fated Scat Daddy and out of a lovely female family. I see them easily tossing him out there at 200k and probably not cutting the deal they did for AP.
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Kurenai » Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:05 pm

I can't see them demanding 200k for Justify. And I also don't think it will hurt AP in any way regarding his stud fee in the long run. The "only living TC winner" is a good marketing point, but that only lasts til the foals hit the track. If they're not performing then that won't help him. Stuff like that only matters for the first 3 years.
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Flanders » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:02 pm

bare it all wrote:So, Pharaoh WAS the only living Triple Crown winner.... is his value now as a stud diminished and devalued because we have Justify? Plus, you can easily breed to AP's sire who is beyond proven himself. I think he was standing in the neighborhood of $75-85K past season, but someone might have better insight there.

What do you think the Coolmore boys will post Justify at? A Triple Crown winning son of the prolific but ill-fated Scat Daddy and out of a lovely female family. I see them easily tossing him out there at 200k and probably not cutting the deal they did for AP.

Pioneerof the Nile stood for $60,000 in 2015, $125,000 in 2016, $110,000 in 2017/2018.

Coolmore will have to go in the 150-200k range for Justify, otherwise they won't hit the break even point fast enough. That is if the $75 million sale price that is being thrown around is true.

The sale price for AP was never disclosed but it was substantially lower because the deal was made when he was still 2yos.
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby mariasmon » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:10 pm

Whenever I see "AP," I only think A.P. Indy, not American Pharoah.
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Flanders » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:14 pm

mariasmon wrote:Whenever I see "AP," I only think A.P. Indy, not American Pharoah.

Yeah I did for a long time as well and still do.
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Treve » Mon Jun 11, 2018 3:31 pm

I thought Coolmore hadn't even bought Justify's stud rights yet.
I also see lots of wild speculation of Justify's value neighbouring in the 60 mill and 75 mill but we saw similar speculation about Pharoah's value, yet experts in the field yet I saw plenty of people in the industry totally discount the fact anyone would pay anywhere close to that. In the end Pharoah's kickers and stud rights deal was never fully disclosed but I thought the rumours simmered it down by a lot. They bought him before his TC campaign, but Zayat renegotiated and chances are there were kickers built in anyway.

This also totally depends on how/what Justify does throughout the rest of the year and/or the Pegasus World Cup. I don't think whoever stands him can ask 200k for him either, since he isn't the only TC winner standing at stud nor is he the first TC winner in 37 years. Also while Pharoah's book got filled, the market didn't in reality likely tolerate 200k for him, what with that 2 for 1 deal they offered if one of the mares was a graded stakes winner or had produced graded stakes winners (though this could have been part of a ploy to get him the best mares) And while what he has done is extraordinary I'm sure half the appeal of Pharoah beyond being a TC winner is also his 2yo champ title since breeders and buyers bank on precociousness these days. Let's not forget Pharoah closed his career with 9 victories out of 11 starts, all of which came in Graded Stakes with 8 of those G1s. Justify accomplished a mesmerizing defeat of the odds and flipped the bird to 100 years of history between his first start and now, but how does that translate in the mind of commercial breeders?

On the other hand Justify has a much better female family than Pharoah (although it is worth noting that both Stage Magic and Littleprincessemma's broodmare records are perfect thus far - all their starters are winners). But Pharoah has a very consistent sireline going for him in terms of stamping offspring conformationally speaking and biomechanics. Empire Maker likely got it from Unbridled who got it from Fappiano, but I'd say out of all Unbridled's sons Empire Maker seems to have the most consistent sons and grandsons. One need only look at PotN, Bodemeister and now Cairo Prince and their get to see it. We'll know more about Pharoah's yearlings this year. And then Pharoah's offspring will hit the track next year and that will determine his price going forward.
Justify is surely valuable as a Scat Daddy but there are lots of questions about what that could mean exactly in his case particularly. He's entirely different than the typical Scat Daddy aside from being brilliant - he doesn't much look like him or most Scat Daddies, and he wasn't a precocious runner - and I wonder how that'll translate as a sire, especially in the mind of commercial breeders. I realize Scat Daddy's best sons haven't been at stud yet or long enough to have foals of running age, but it's actually surprising to me when you look at the list of his sons at stud how light the demand seems to be for the most of them. It's also a little ironic almost that El Kabeir whose damsire is Unbridled's Song, ended up in Ireland.

I think WinStar will stand him, I'd be very surprised if CHC let them sell his stud rights to someone else. It will be interesting to see how they manage his stallion career. I could picture them trying to set his stud fee at 100k, but otoh if WinStar/CHC are the ones standing him they won't have the pressure to recoup what they paid for him as a different entity would. They could choose an entirely different approach from Coolmore. They could limit his book and inflate the price, or they could set a lower price to generate demand and compete with stallions in that price bracket. They could cut deals to blue blooded mares... and so on.
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Diver52 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 1:30 pm

AP had very well balanced conformation and perfect mechanics, and as was just said, he seems to be an exemplar of a prepotent sire line. Justify is a huge talent but he seems to have had a series of nagging issues. (Of course AP missed the BCJ.) AP at $200,000 was always sort of a "wink wink, nudge nudge" figure, but I could see Justify legitimately filling up at half that if he wins at least one more G1.
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby BaroqueAgain1 » Tue Jun 12, 2018 2:12 pm

IMHO, when it comes to breeding, sometimes the race record, no matter how stellar, doesn't carry the same weight as how well that sireline is doing in producing winners. As has been pointed out, the Unbridled/Empire Maker/PotN line has been very productive, and that may make 'Pharoah more attractive than Justify.
Scat Daddy already has sons like No Nay Never at stud with runners on the track. How are they doing? Are they showing that SD is a sire-of-sires? :?
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Somnambulist » Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:45 pm

Scat Daddy was standing for $100k at the time of his death, right? They'll get $200k easy for him I think.

Is this the first time a stud farm will stand two TC winners at the same time? (is this deal even concrete?)
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Ziggypop » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:41 pm

Flanders wrote:
bare it all wrote:So, Pharaoh WAS the only living Triple Crown winner.... is his value now as a stud diminished and devalued because we have Justify? Plus, you can easily breed to AP's sire who is beyond proven himself. I think he was standing in the neighborhood of $75-85K past season, but someone might have better insight there.

What do you think the Coolmore boys will post Justify at? A Triple Crown winning son of the prolific but ill-fated Scat Daddy and out of a lovely female family. I see them easily tossing him out there at 200k and probably not cutting the deal they did for AP.

Pioneerof the Nile stood for $60,000 in 2015, $125,000 in 2016, $110,000 in 2017/2018.

Coolmore will have to go in the 150-200k range for Justify, otherwise they won't hit the break even point fast enough. That is if the $75 million sale price that is being thrown around is true.

The sale price for AP was never disclosed but it was substantially lower because the deal was made when he was still 2yos.
Someone commented on Paulick that AP is cryptorchid which is why he didn't command the big bucks. That was the first I heard such a thing.
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