Most over-priced stallion..

Re: Most over-priced stallion..

Postby Treve » Thu Nov 24, 2016 6:08 pm

mariasmon wrote:
Treve wrote:
mariasmon wrote:It might be American Pharoah, since they were giving 2-for-1 deals (for the right mares) last year and didn't adjust his advertised fee this year, just made it private.


All the mares that have sold in foal to him returned a profit on the 200k advertised even if you factor in 10k for the mare's upkeep. All but one were North of 300k. We will see how his weanlings and yearlings do, that will be the determining factor but so far I don't think it is fair to say he is over priced.
I suspect the private fee thing is more about offering discounts to good mares, and working out deals based on the individual (I suspect this is similar for Galileo, except his "flat rate" is probably the highest in the world). I don't know that it is common in Thoroughbred breeding but it is done all the time in other breeds. I actually think this makes the most sense, particularly given that with the book he got- he likely paid for himself in one season which means Coolmore can proceed in being ultra selective about the mares he gets to hopefully build his legacy and reputation as a sire, which in turn will increase his yearling prices, and they can keep making money off sales.


It's impossible to factor, but I wonder how much of the mares' sale prices were about being in foal to Pharoah and how much was about the mares themselves.


I think if you look at the list of mares it's obvious in some cases, less clear in others.
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Re: Most over-priced stallion..

Postby Diver52 » Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:46 pm

That's very true, if we assume that AP's mares were on the whole of very good quality and could be expected to sell well. But at least he isn't visibly dragging them down! I am guessing that buyers would not pay top dollar even for a fine mare in foal to what was perceived to be an undesirable stud, given the uncertainties of breeding (mare might not get in foal again, next foal might die, etc.), But it is certainly hard to quantify.
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Re: Most over-priced stallion..

Postby Treve » Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:15 am

http://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-regi ... tions/2016
I thought it was in my first post, but oops, here is the actual sales list.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Re: Most over-priced stallion..

Postby starrydreamer » Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:39 pm

ThreeMustangs wrote:Overpriced as far as sales results, racing results, or both? I think War Front's auction figures back up his stud fee. His progeny's racing record...not so much.


He's second on the 2 yr olds list, after quite a bit of time at number 1. He's currently fourth on the turf sires list (after Kitten's Joy, Galileo, and Scat Daddy) and fifth by Average Earnings Index. I don't think that's so shabby. He did have a quiet couple of years in the US, but a LOT of his offspring gets exported now.

And that's my defense of War Front.
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Re: Most over-priced stallion..

Postby Psychotic Parakeet » Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:46 pm

Square Eddie. $25k in California. Not sure if I understand the price justification.
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Re: Most over-priced stallion..

Postby mariasmon » Wed Nov 30, 2016 2:50 pm

Psychotic Parakeet wrote:Square Eddie. $25k in California. Not sure if I understand the price justification.


It's a lot. Definitely too much, really. But, looking at the CA general sires list, he should be at or near the top of the active sires, at least.

California Chrome has artificially inflated Lucky Pulpit's status. Take him away and Square Eddie is ahead of Lucky Pulpit. Unusual Heat is 3rd and he's now pensioned. He also has many more offspring than Square Eddie, just by virtue of age, but also his popularity and success over the last 10 years. Bluegrass Cat sits in 2nd place, but he hasn't had any runners from his Cal-bred crops. The vast majority of his foals are KY and NY-breds. Tribal Rule is the other one ahead of Square Eddie and he's deceased.

So, of the 4 ahead of Square Eddie are a stallion who's been largely boosted by 1 freak, a stallion who's stood in KY and NY w/ no Cal-breds to race so far, an elderly pensioned stallion and a deceased stallion.

He got 49 mares this year, so I'm not sure what possessed them to set a $25k fee. I consider him the best active sire in CA, or at least tied with Bluegrass Cat, although I'm not sure that comparing them is fair at this point.
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Re: Most over-priced stallion..

Postby Northport » Thu Dec 01, 2016 12:12 am

He had a pretty good start considering the quality and quantity of mares he has received. He was Private for 2010 and 2011 and was supported almost exclusively by Reddam, who bred and raced all 11 of his top earners, 6 of which were foaled in his first crop, 2011. he has cooled off a bit since then, so I'm not sure I get the continued bump in fee the last 4 years and the almost tripling of it this year. He's had pretty consistent book sizes since 2010, usually covering around 40 mares, so I guess we'll see a sharp drop in 2017, unless California breeders truly think he's worth it.

Edited to add: I wonder how many outside mares he even covers outside of Reddam mares... though Pedigree Query is hardly gospel, it looks like each year he is bred to pretty much the same mares.
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