Most over-priced stallion..

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Vandalay
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 2:54 pm

War front?, Distorted humor?....
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ThreeMustangs
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 4:32 pm

Overpriced as far as sales results, racing results, or both? I think War Front's auction figures back up his stud fee. His progeny's racing record...not so much.
BaroqueAgain1
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 4:56 pm

Didn't we already discuss this subject?
Looking...looking.....yep: :P
http://thoroughbredchampions.com/forum/ ... f=4&t=5075

And it appears that War Front is one of the first sires anyone mentions.
His ears must be burning.
Somnambulist
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 6:34 pm

I don't know how something is overpriced is people pay it.
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mariasmon
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 6:46 pm

It might be American Pharoah, since they were giving 2-for-1 deals (for the right mares) last year and didn't adjust his advertised fee this year, just made it private.
sweettalk
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 7:16 pm

Somnambulist wrote:I don't know how something is overpriced is people pay it.
you can acknowledge a thing is over-priced and pay it anyway. cable company charges too much? too bad, they're the only ones in your area so you either pay it or go without cable.

in the case of stallions, usually there are several options, though. fortunately.
Somnambulist
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Wed Nov 23, 2016 8:04 pm

I don't know. I think Louis Vuitton is hideous and so gross I wouldn't even take one for free - seriously - yet people spend half my salary on one. I've worked on some accounts with really ugly homes that went for more than all my eggs combined are worth. But someone is ok with paying it. So it cant be overpriced.

There's a monopoly like FIOS/Optimum or there is a stud. And there is no dearth of them.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Treve
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Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:32 am

I guess in this case a stallion can be overpriced if you look at it from a return on investment perspective. As a breeder you want to be breaking even, at the very least, and profiting ideally.
If little or no people can break even on the stud fee, the stallion is overpriced.

In that sense, War Front is not, because you have a good chance of making it back and even returning a profit at the sales. (Now, whether his offspring are overpriced is an other matter but it is an auction which means the paying public are the ones willing to be parted with their money, bringing back Som's point).
Likewise with Distorted Humor, if you look at his fee of 80k vs his sale results, the only area where he has a deficiency is the median as a covering sire (75k). But his average there as a covering sire is 121k, and in all other categories, both his median and average are above 100k.

And even if you look at his performance as a sire long term and short term on the track, I think it is preposterous to suggest he is overpriced. Sire of runners, sire of sires and broodmare sire. This year alone he had two representants at the Breeders' Cup. And think about it, he is the grandsire, of a TC near miss (I'll Have Another through Flower Alley), and the sire of one TC near miss himself (Funny Cide). And as a sire winner of all three TC races. He is also the #1 active North American sire by lifetime % of blacktype winners (12.4% which is higher than Tapit, Medaglia d'Oro, Giant's Causeway to name but a few) and Yearling Sales average. He has 136 Blacktype winners of which, 55 Graded stakes winners - 18 G1 winners in 6 different countries, over 120$ million in progeny earnings. He has 15 millionaires, 11 more if you count his Japanese runners (which even if you adjust by slashing the purses in half, most would still be millionaires).

Too early to say if Pharoah is overpriced (we will know at the weanling and yearling sales 2017-2018), but I would tend to disagree given he had the third largest book of any North American stallion and the most quality-dense for a freshman stud in a decade (and highest quality this year overall). I honestly didn't even expect his book to be that full with the deal, let alone with the quality he got.

I am tempted to say Pioneerof the Nile is currently somewhat overpriced given that his 2yo median is 30k (which even if you take his pre-2016 fee, doesn't even make up for half of his fee) and his 2yo filly average is 40, 550$. If you take his 2016 fee or current fee, his filly average both for yearlings and 2yos come up short in 2015, as well as his 2yo median.
On the other hand, come Eclipse Award results, he will likely be the first stallion in over a decade to sire two 2yo Champion males. In fact if you go back 20 years, he is still the only sire that would appear twice, and if you go back all the way to 1986, only one other stallion appears twice from that year to present day, and it is Seattle Slew. And if I am not mistaken only one other stallion appeared twice overall on the list, What A Pleasure. (However Bold Ruler, Exclusive Native, Mr. Prospector, Halo (and maybe a few more I might've missed) appear multiple times if you include them as grandsires as well as sires).
And yes he is the sire of the first TC winner in 37 years but his overall numbers don't justify his fee imho, that would be like saying Lucky Pulpit merits a 40k bump lol.
ETA: and apparently his 2017 book is already full.
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Treve
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Thu Nov 24, 2016 1:59 pm

mariasmon wrote:It might be American Pharoah, since they were giving 2-for-1 deals (for the right mares) last year and didn't adjust his advertised fee this year, just made it private.
All the mares that have sold in foal to him returned a profit on the 200k advertised even if you factor in 10k for the mare's upkeep. All but one were North of 300k. We will see how his weanlings and yearlings do, that will be the determining factor but so far I don't think it is fair to say he is over priced.
I suspect the private fee thing is more about offering discounts to good mares, and working out deals based on the individual (I suspect this is similar for Galileo, except his "flat rate" is probably the highest in the world). I don't know that it is common in Thoroughbred breeding but it is done all the time in other breeds. I actually think this makes the most sense, particularly given that with the book he got- he likely paid for himself in one season which means Coolmore can proceed in being ultra selective about the mares he gets to hopefully build his legacy and reputation as a sire, which in turn will increase his yearling prices, and they can keep making money off sales.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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mariasmon
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Thu Nov 24, 2016 5:04 pm

Treve wrote:
mariasmon wrote:It might be American Pharoah, since they were giving 2-for-1 deals (for the right mares) last year and didn't adjust his advertised fee this year, just made it private.
All the mares that have sold in foal to him returned a profit on the 200k advertised even if you factor in 10k for the mare's upkeep. All but one were North of 300k. We will see how his weanlings and yearlings do, that will be the determining factor but so far I don't think it is fair to say he is over priced.
I suspect the private fee thing is more about offering discounts to good mares, and working out deals based on the individual (I suspect this is similar for Galileo, except his "flat rate" is probably the highest in the world). I don't know that it is common in Thoroughbred breeding but it is done all the time in other breeds. I actually think this makes the most sense, particularly given that with the book he got- he likely paid for himself in one season which means Coolmore can proceed in being ultra selective about the mares he gets to hopefully build his legacy and reputation as a sire, which in turn will increase his yearling prices, and they can keep making money off sales.
It's impossible to factor, but I wonder how much of the mares' sale prices were about being in foal to Pharoah and how much was about the mares themselves.
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Treve
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Thu Nov 24, 2016 6:08 pm

mariasmon wrote:
Treve wrote:
mariasmon wrote:It might be American Pharoah, since they were giving 2-for-1 deals (for the right mares) last year and didn't adjust his advertised fee this year, just made it private.
All the mares that have sold in foal to him returned a profit on the 200k advertised even if you factor in 10k for the mare's upkeep. All but one were North of 300k. We will see how his weanlings and yearlings do, that will be the determining factor but so far I don't think it is fair to say he is over priced.
I suspect the private fee thing is more about offering discounts to good mares, and working out deals based on the individual (I suspect this is similar for Galileo, except his "flat rate" is probably the highest in the world). I don't know that it is common in Thoroughbred breeding but it is done all the time in other breeds. I actually think this makes the most sense, particularly given that with the book he got- he likely paid for himself in one season which means Coolmore can proceed in being ultra selective about the mares he gets to hopefully build his legacy and reputation as a sire, which in turn will increase his yearling prices, and they can keep making money off sales.
It's impossible to factor, but I wonder how much of the mares' sale prices were about being in foal to Pharoah and how much was about the mares themselves.
I think if you look at the list of mares it's obvious in some cases, less clear in others.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Diver52
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Thu Nov 24, 2016 8:46 pm

That's very true, if we assume that AP's mares were on the whole of very good quality and could be expected to sell well. But at least he isn't visibly dragging them down! I am guessing that buyers would not pay top dollar even for a fine mare in foal to what was perceived to be an undesirable stud, given the uncertainties of breeding (mare might not get in foal again, next foal might die, etc.), But it is certainly hard to quantify.
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Treve
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Fri Nov 25, 2016 9:15 am

http://www.bloodhorse.com/stallion-regi ... tions/2016
I thought it was in my first post, but oops, here is the actual sales list.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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starrydreamer
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Wed Nov 30, 2016 12:39 pm

ThreeMustangs wrote:Overpriced as far as sales results, racing results, or both? I think War Front's auction figures back up his stud fee. His progeny's racing record...not so much.
He's second on the 2 yr olds list, after quite a bit of time at number 1. He's currently fourth on the turf sires list (after Kitten's Joy, Galileo, and Scat Daddy) and fifth by Average Earnings Index. I don't think that's so shabby. He did have a quiet couple of years in the US, but a LOT of his offspring gets exported now.

And that's my defense of War Front.
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Psychotic Parakeet
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Wed Nov 30, 2016 1:46 pm

Square Eddie. $25k in California. Not sure if I understand the price justification.
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mariasmon
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Wed Nov 30, 2016 2:50 pm

Psychotic Parakeet wrote:Square Eddie. $25k in California. Not sure if I understand the price justification.
It's a lot. Definitely too much, really. But, looking at the CA general sires list, he should be at or near the top of the active sires, at least.

California Chrome has artificially inflated Lucky Pulpit's status. Take him away and Square Eddie is ahead of Lucky Pulpit. Unusual Heat is 3rd and he's now pensioned. He also has many more offspring than Square Eddie, just by virtue of age, but also his popularity and success over the last 10 years. Bluegrass Cat sits in 2nd place, but he hasn't had any runners from his Cal-bred crops. The vast majority of his foals are KY and NY-breds. Tribal Rule is the other one ahead of Square Eddie and he's deceased.

So, of the 4 ahead of Square Eddie are a stallion who's been largely boosted by 1 freak, a stallion who's stood in KY and NY w/ no Cal-breds to race so far, an elderly pensioned stallion and a deceased stallion.

He got 49 mares this year, so I'm not sure what possessed them to set a $25k fee. I consider him the best active sire in CA, or at least tied with Bluegrass Cat, although I'm not sure that comparing them is fair at this point.
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Northport
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Thu Dec 01, 2016 12:12 am

He had a pretty good start considering the quality and quantity of mares he has received. He was Private for 2010 and 2011 and was supported almost exclusively by Reddam, who bred and raced all 11 of his top earners, 6 of which were foaled in his first crop, 2011. he has cooled off a bit since then, so I'm not sure I get the continued bump in fee the last 4 years and the almost tripling of it this year. He's had pretty consistent book sizes since 2010, usually covering around 40 mares, so I guess we'll see a sharp drop in 2017, unless California breeders truly think he's worth it.

Edited to add: I wonder how many outside mares he even covers outside of Reddam mares... though Pedigree Query is hardly gospel, it looks like each year he is bred to pretty much the same mares.
weeeeeeeee
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