First Winners

Re: First Winners

Postby Ridan_Remembered » Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:59 am

Horsebagger wrote:
Ridan_Remembered wrote:This thread seems like a good place to add that this year's leading first crop sire by earnings is Dunkirk. He has 126 2-year-olds, 39 to race and 14 to win. Pioneerof the Nile, who is second on the first crop list, has a far better percentage of winners to runners. He has 94 2-year-olds with 30 to race and 12 winners.


12 out of 30 is 'a far better percentage' than 14 from 39?


14 to win from 39 to race is 35.8% winners from starters. 12 to win from 30 to race is 40% winners from starters.

39 to race from 126 foals is 30.9%. 30 to race from 94 foals is 31.9%.

So in percentage terms, both of these stallions had only a one percentage point difference in the number of foals from their first crop to make it to the races, but Pioneerof the Nile has about 4% more winners than Dunkirk. Use of the term "far better" depends on one's point of view, but it's a fair description in my opinion.
User avatar
Ridan_Remembered
 
Posts: 1112
Joined: Sun Nov 03, 2013 2:15 pm

Re: First Winners

Postby ThreeMustangs » Wed Nov 20, 2013 2:28 pm

Ridan_Remembered wrote:
Horsebagger wrote:
Ridan_Remembered wrote:This thread seems like a good place to add that this year's leading first crop sire by earnings is Dunkirk. He has 126 2-year-olds, 39 to race and 14 to win. Pioneerof the Nile, who is second on the first crop list, has a far better percentage of winners to runners. He has 94 2-year-olds with 30 to race and 12 winners.


12 out of 30 is 'a far better percentage' than 14 from 39?


14 to win from 39 to race is 35.8% winners from starters. 12 to win from 30 to race is 40% winners from starters.

39 to race from 126 foals is 30.9%. 30 to race from 94 foals is 31.9%.

So in percentage terms, both of these stallions had only a one percentage point difference in the number of foals from their first crop to make it to the races, but Pioneerof the Nile has about 4% more winners than Dunkirk. Use of the term "far better" depends on one's point of view, but it's a fair description in my opinion.


Dunkirk has a G1 winner in his first crop; is that more important to breeders than percentages?
User avatar
ThreeMustangs
 
Posts: 1202
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:37 pm
Location: Florida

Re: First Winners

Postby pointgivenfan » Wed Nov 20, 2013 2:40 pm

ThreeMustangs wrote:Dunkirk has a G1 winner in his first crop; is that more important to breeders than percentages?

If that is the goal.
If the goal is to get winners (regardless of type), statistics favor Pioneerof the Nile.
"I am the man who with the utmost daring discovered what had been discovered before." - G.K. Chesterton, Orthodoxy.
Avatar: Goldikova - 2010 Prix de la Foret, copyright yours truly. =)
https://www.flickr.com/photos/timstephansen/
User avatar
pointgivenfan
 
Posts: 887
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 8:59 am

Re: First Winners

Postby Ridan_Remembered » Wed Nov 20, 2013 11:05 pm

ThreeMustangs wrote:Dunkirk has a G1 winner in his first crop; is that more important to breeders than percentages?


There's no single answer to your question. The top end of the sport values stallions who can sire a healthy percentage of stakes winners from foals or foals to race. At that elite end, the preference is for sires who get graded stakes winning colts first, then graded stakes winning fillies. Leading sire lists are organized by money won.

As of today, there is only $265,592 in earnings separating Kitten's Joy, who is #1 on the general sire list, and #2 Speightstown. Giant's Causeway is not that far back in #3. Yet of those top three, Kitten's Joy had the fewest number of winners. Here's the link if you want to check the numbers: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/thoroughbred-breeding/sire-lists?utm_source=Navigation&utm_medium=Links&utm_campaign=MainNav

However, the bread and butter of the sport is and always has been the allowance and claiming end, and sales at all levels.If you're a small to mid-sized breeding operation, numbers of winners at any level will be very important to you.

By the way, just as an aside...three of the top five stallions on the 2013 General Sires list were sired by three separate grandsons of Secretariat. They are Speightstown (by Gone West), Giant's Causeway (by Storm Cat), and Malibu Moon (by A.P. Indy). Pretty damned remarkable for Big Red, who died 24 years ago.
User avatar
Ridan_Remembered
 
Posts: 1112
Joined: Sun Nov 03, 2013 2:15 pm

Re: First Winners

Postby frankel13 » Sat Nov 23, 2013 12:08 pm

Dunkirk vs Pioneer of the Nile. The reality is that we won't know who is the better stallion for a couple of years, however for me breeding racehorses is all about the dream. Most stallions can get a fair percentage of winners, but the quality of those races is all important.

If we compare the two horses, they have both had a similar percentage winners to runners, but Dunkirk has had to do it with lower quality broodmares. The comparative index for Pioneer of the Nile is 1.71 compared to only 1.34 for Dunkirk, which is a significant difference. However as stated above breeding is all about getting the big horse. Tapit became popular not because he could get plenty of winners, but because he could get grade 1 winners, even from ordinary mares (Hansen being the obvious example). At the moment Dunkirk has a grade 1 winner in Havana, whilst Pioneer of the Nile does not.

Last year Pioneer of the Nile covered 142 mares, whilst Dunkirk only covered 65. My prediction for 2014 is Dunkirk will eliminate this gap.

In my view Dunkirk wins 2013 on points, but if Cairo Prince wins the Kentucky Derby for Pioneer of the Nile it could be a knockout punch in 2014.

All good fun speculating.
frankel13
 
Posts: 32
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 4:03 pm

Re: First Winners

Postby TBird » Sat Nov 23, 2013 8:06 pm

frankel13 wrote:Dunkirk vs Pioneer of the Nile. The reality is that we won't know who is the better stallion for a couple of years, however for me breeding racehorses is all about the dream. Most stallions can get a fair percentage of winners, but the quality of those races is all important.

If we compare the two horses, they have both had a similar percentage winners to runners, but Dunkirk has had to do it with lower quality broodmares. The comparative index for Pioneer of the Nile is 1.71 compared to only 1.34 for Dunkirk, which is a significant difference. However as stated above breeding is all about getting the big horse. Tapit became popular not because he could get plenty of winners, but because he could get grade 1 winners, even from ordinary mares (Hansen being the obvious example). At the moment Dunkirk has a grade 1 winner in Havana, whilst Pioneer of the Nile does not.

Last year Pioneer of the Nile covered 142 mares, whilst Dunkirk only covered 65. My prediction for 2014 is Dunkirk will eliminate this gap.

In my view Dunkirk wins 2013 on points, but if Cairo Prince wins the Kentucky Derby for Pioneer of the Nile it could be a knockout punch in 2014.

All good fun speculating.



Another gap between them--and one that's important to me--is that Dunkirk has 126 horses in his current crop of 2yos while Pioneerof the Nile has 94. That's a sizeable difference.

One more thing to keep in mind when comparing the two sires...generally speaking, offspring of Unbridleds Song tend to be precocious while those of Empire Maker do not.
TBird
 
Posts: 243
Joined: Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:09 am

Re: First Winners

Postby PJMIII » Fri Nov 29, 2013 8:38 am

From Brisnet

Schwarzwald--Lies Be Gone by Tricky Creek; VISCIOUS LIES, g, 4, MNR, Msw, 11-26, 5 1/2f, 1:08 3/5. B-Sandra Witherow (WV.). ***FIRST WINNER FOR SIRE
PJMIII
 
Posts: 8356
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:12 am

Re: First Winners

Postby PJMIII » Sat Nov 30, 2013 10:16 am

From Brisnet

Jiggs Coz--Bold Courant by Bold N' Flashy; BIRCH CIRCUIT, f, 2, WO, Mcl 25000, 11-27, 6f, 1:12 4/5. B-John Unger (ON.). ***FIRST WINNER FOR SIRE
PJMIII
 
Posts: 8356
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:12 am

Re: First Winners

Postby PJMIII » Mon Dec 02, 2013 11:33 am

From Brisnet

Incriminate--Pioneer Rose by Pioneering; STRIKE FOR GOLD, c, 2, DED, Mcl 20000, 11-30, 5f, :59 1/5. B-Gus King (AL.). ***FIRST WINNER FOR SIRE.

Cat Genius--Bye My Love by Runaway Groom; TROPICAL PALMLOVE, f, 4, CT, Mcl 5000, 11-30, 4 1/2f, :55 1/5. B-Ranford Jones (WV.). ***FIRST WINNER FOR SIRE.
PJMIII
 
Posts: 8356
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:12 am

Re: First Winners

Postby PJMIII » Wed Dec 04, 2013 7:55 am

From Brisnet

Roman Emperor--Oh So Gold by Touch Gold; ROLL SO GOLD, f, 2, ZIA, Msw, 12-3, 5 1/2f, 1:05 4/5. B-Gallegos del Norte Racing (NM.). ***FIRST WINNER FOR SIRE
PJMIII
 
Posts: 8356
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:12 am

PreviousNext

Return to Breeding & Sales

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests