Justify vs AP at stud

Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Retrospectiv » Tue Jun 12, 2018 8:27 pm

Ziggypop wrote:
The sale price for AP was never disclosed but it was substantially lower because the deal was made when he was still 2yos.
Someone commented on Paulick that AP is cryptorchid which is why he didn't command the big bucks. That was the first I heard such a thing.


Lots of stallions have been crytorchids, didn't effect most of them. Seattle Slew line has a lot of them, including AP Indy...
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Private Thoughts » Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:09 pm

Somnambulist wrote:Scat Daddy was standing for $100k at the time of his death, right? They'll get $200k easy for him I think.

Is this the first time a stud farm will stand two TC winners at the same time? (is this deal even concrete?)


No, Spendthrift stood Seattle Slew and Affirmed.

Calumet stood Whirlaway and Citation, though not at the same time, I don't believe. I think by the time Citation arrived on the scene, Whirlaway had been sent to France.
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Miss Woodford » Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:41 pm

Private Thoughts wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:Scat Daddy was standing for $100k at the time of his death, right? They'll get $200k easy for him I think.

Is this the first time a stud farm will stand two TC winners at the same time? (is this deal even concrete?)


No, Spendthrift stood Seattle Slew and Affirmed.

Calumet stood Whirlaway and Citation, though not at the same time, I don't believe. I think by the time Citation arrived on the scene, Whirlaway had been sent to France.

Yes, Whirlaway was moved to France in 1951, a year before Citation went to stud.

Claiborne stood Omaha alongside his sire Gallant Fox (and his grandsire Sir Gallahad) from 1938-1942 after which Omaha was sent to New York and then to Nebraska.
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Treve » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:48 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:IMHO, when it comes to breeding, sometimes the race record, no matter how stellar, doesn't carry the same weight as how well that sireline is doing in producing winners. As has been pointed out, the Unbridled/Empire Maker/PotN line has been very productive, and that may make 'Pharoah more attractive than Justify.
Scat Daddy already has sons like No Nay Never at stud with runners on the track. How are they doing? Are they showing that SD is a sire-of-sires? :?


No Nay Never is doing well but he's the only son of Scat Daddy I'd say is doing well. He has one son doing regionally ok in Florida I think on the sales front and his lone starter to date is a winner at first outing. The other sons he has who entered stud in 2015 and therefore should have offspring of racing age stand for like 3000$... one of them I don't think even got any mares in his first year at stud.

Somnambulist wrote:Scat Daddy was standing for $100k at the time of his death, right? They'll get $200k easy for him I think.


But Justify is not Scat Daddy and Scat Daddy does not come from a multigenerational line of potent sires. Not only is Empire Maker and his sons emerging as a massive sires of sires line, but it actually goes well back to Unbridled and Fappiano to Mr. Prospector. There isn't a single weak link in that line, even if Empire didn't at first perform the way Juddmonte wanted, he has done well enough to be bought back to the U.S. Grand Daddy, the full to Scat Daddy is still standing in South America with apparently no interest to bring him back, despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis. Johannesburg is in Japan and getting up there in the years so he's not gonna be brought back and to my knowledge Scat Daddy's dam wasn't recently sent to him again. I think Scat Daddy has the potential to be a sire of sires but it isn't established yet. It's clear Coolmore believes in the potential but they aren't pushing for more than what the market will tolerate. I don't think the market will tolerate 200k for Justify, whether Coolmore or someone else stands him. (And as a matter of fact, I'm also kinda skeptical that Coolmore will even get him)

Coolmore isn't even asking for more than 35 000€ for Caravaggio (and No Nay Never stands at 25 000€). If Coolmore gets Justify for sure they don't get 200k for him. The price difference betwen Caravaggio and No Nay Never I suspect has to do with their damsides (and their race records of course) but they both have decent and more than decent 1st, 2nd and 3rd BM sires on their damside that are also proven as sires of sires. Caravaggio has Holy Bull and Relaunch, No Nay Never has Elusive Quality.

Ghostzapper is shaping up to be quite the BM sire but so far none of his sons at stud have done much of anything so even if you're trying to look for 'sire of sires' influence on his distaff side there isn't there in the immediate. Another thing is Justify is inbred 3 times to Mr Prospector at a time where there are so many horses with Mr Prospector in their first 4 generation pedigree it's now become a selling point for stallions who are free of Mr P in their first 4 generations.
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Flanders » Wed Jun 13, 2018 6:19 am

Somnambulist wrote:(is this deal even concrete?)

Nothing has been announced either way. But the rumors have been circling, only time will tell if its true or not. On one hand I find it hard to believe WinStar would sell a TC winner but they would still syndicate him. So maybe they are only selling controlling interest to Coolmore?

Treve wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:IMHO, when it comes to breeding, sometimes the race record, no matter how stellar, doesn't carry the same weight as how well that sireline is doing in producing winners. As has been pointed out, the Unbridled/Empire Maker/PotN line has been very productive, and that may make 'Pharoah more attractive than Justify.
Scat Daddy already has sons like No Nay Never at stud with runners on the track. How are they doing? Are they showing that SD is a sire-of-sires? :?


No Nay Never is doing well but he's the only son of Scat Daddy I'd say is doing well. He has one son doing regionally ok in Florida I think on the sales front and his lone starter to date is a winner at first outing. The other sons he has who entered stud in 2015 and therefore should have offspring of racing age stand for like 3000$... one of them I don't think even got any mares in his first year at stud.

But Justify is not Scat Daddy and Scat Daddy does not come from a multigenerational line of potent sires. Not only is Empire Maker and his sons emerging as a massive sires of sires line, but it actually goes well back to Unbridled and Fappiano to Mr. Prospector. There isn't a single weak link in that line, even if Empire didn't at first perform the way Juddmonte wanted, he has done well enough to be bought back to the U.S. Grand Daddy, the full to Scat Daddy is still standing in South America with apparently no interest to bring him back, despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis. Johannesburg is in Japan and getting up there in the years so he's not gonna be brought back and to my knowledge Scat Daddy's dam wasn't recently sent to him again. I think Scat Daddy has the potential to be a sire of sires but it isn't established yet. It's clear Coolmore believes in the potential but they aren't pushing for more than what the market will tolerate. I don't think the market will tolerate 200k for Justify, whether Coolmore or someone else stands him. (And as a matter of fact, I'm also kinda skeptical that Coolmore will even get him)

Coolmore isn't even asking for more than 35 000€ for Caravaggio (and No Nay Never stands at 25 000€). If Coolmore gets Justify for sure they don't get 200k for him. The price difference betwen Caravaggio and No Nay Never I suspect has to do with their damsides (and their race records of course) but they both have decent and more than decent 1st, 2nd and 3rd BM sires on their damside that are also proven as sires of sires. Caravaggio has Holy Bull and Relaunch, No Nay Never has Elusive Quality.

Ghostzapper is shaping up to be quite the BM sire but so far none of his sons at stud have done much of anything so even if you're trying to look for 'sire of sires' influence on his distaff side there isn't there in the immediate. Another thing is Justify is inbred 3 times to Mr Prospector at a time where there are so many horses with Mr Prospector in their first 4 generation pedigree it's now become a selling point for stallions who are free of Mr P in their first 4 generations.

No Nay Never and Caravaggio are both turf sprinters. They never command the stud fees of a classic distance horse when they first go to stud.

The thing with the Scat Daddy's that have gone to stud, none were G1SW on the dirt. All of them that have foals of racing age, their first foals of racing age are 2. Bloodhorse has Finale as entering stud in 2014 but he raced that spring and didn't cover any mares. His first foals are 2yos too. You can't judge a stallion as a sire of sires who only has sons at stud with 2yos when its June.

I think they can get 150-200k easily. He is an undefeated Triple Crown winner, his sire was on fire and died young. There is only one crop of 2yos left from Scat Daddy, if his sons show they can sire good runners, he is worth that risk.
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Ziggypop » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:34 am

I have learned so much from reading this forum. Just want to say thank you to all the posters.
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Somnambulist » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:00 am

Treve wrote:despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis.


I feel that this reason alone is reason enough they could start him at $200k. And to echo Flanders his other sons didn't before to a legendary status on the dirt.

I really can't believe Winstar would sell a TC winner either but there is a price for anything.

Does anyone have a conformation photo of him? I haven't really seen a lot.
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Flanders » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:45 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Treve wrote:despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis.


I feel that this reason alone is reason enough they could start him at $200k. And to echo Flanders his other sons didn't before to a legendary status on the dirt.

I really can't believe Winstar would sell a TC winner either but there is a price for anything.

Does anyone have a conformation photo of him? I haven't really seen a lot.

The only one that I really remember seeing is the one where he is a yearling. https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/news/tales-from-the-crib-justify
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Northport » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:57 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Treve wrote:despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis.


I feel that this reason alone is reason enough they could start him at $200k. And to echo Flanders his other sons didn't before to a legendary status on the dirt.

I really can't believe Winstar would sell a TC winner either but there is a price for anything.

Does anyone have a conformation photo of him? I haven't really seen a lot.


I think that WinStar is the definition of the phrase "anything is for sale for the right price"
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Re: Justify vs AP at stud

Postby Miss Woodford » Wed Jun 13, 2018 10:02 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Treve wrote:despite Scat Daddy's recent post-mortem apotheosis.


I feel that this reason alone is reason enough they could start him at $200k. And to echo Flanders his other sons didn't before to a legendary status on the dirt.

I really can't believe Winstar would sell a TC winner either but there is a price for anything.

Does anyone have a conformation photo of him? I haven't really seen a lot.

Best I could find:
Image
Image

It's hard to find a really good photo of his legs because they're always bandaged. :?
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