Breeders' Cup Top 5

BaroqueAgain1
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Tue Jul 17, 2018 11:59 pm

I notice that you don't have Catholic Boy anywhere. He's beaten Analyze It twice now, so doesn't CB earn a spot in The Mile?
Kennedy
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Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:35 am

I was close to putting Catholic Boy in the mix for the Turf but I really don't see him as one who would be capable of competing in the Mile. The Mile is about speed a good turn of foot and often favors agile horses. Catholic Boy just isn't the type in my mind and would struggle at the distance. Remember he's also been beating Analyze It at distance greater than a mile. I think it in some ways points to a maturity problem for Analyze It but also hints that maybe he should try to become a miler. The issue is that as a 3yo Turf horse there is barely any point in trying to be a miler. All of the key money races get run at 10f.

But after the Secretariat I suspect that Catholic Boy and Analyze it will go their separate ways and would ultimately focus on different BC races if in fact they attempt any at all. The Breeders' Cup level is still a stretch for both of them based on their current ability.
peeptoad
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Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:00 am

I'm hoping for a fantastic renewal of the Distaff this year: Elate, Monomoy Girl, Abel Tasman, Red Ruby, Unique Bella, Bisou, et al... should be a heck of a match up if they all make it.
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Curtis
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Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:39 am

peeptoad wrote:I'm hoping for a fantastic renewal of the Distaff this year: Elate, Monomoy Girl, Abel Tasman, Red Ruby, Unique Bella, Bisou, et al... should be a heck of a match up if they all make it.
You could be right but for me, the 3yo’s will need to move forward more than a little to step with the older mares and they could. Currently though, they just don’t seem fast enough. Bisou would have a puncher’s chance with a pace meltdown, I suppose.
stark
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Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:57 am

Curtis wrote:
peeptoad wrote:I'm hoping for a fantastic renewal of the Distaff this year: Elate, Monomoy Girl, Abel Tasman, Red Ruby, Unique Bella, Bisou, et al... should be a heck of a match up if they all make it.
You could be right but for me, the 3yo’s will need to move forward more than a little to step with the older mares and they could. Currently though, they just don’t seem fast enough. Bisou would have a puncher’s chance with a pace meltdown, I suppose.
They're all running for second place.


Respectfully,
Unique Bella.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
peeptoad
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Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:09 pm

Curtis wrote:
peeptoad wrote:I'm hoping for a fantastic renewal of the Distaff this year: Elate, Monomoy Girl, Abel Tasman, Red Ruby, Unique Bella, Bisou, et al... should be a heck of a match up if they all make it.
You could be right but for me, the 3yo’s will need to move forward more than a little to step with the older mares and they could. Currently though, they just don’t seem fast enough. Bisou would have a puncher’s chance with a pace meltdown, I suppose.
I don't disagree... but I'm not completely sold on Bella being a mortal lock either. Plenty of time for MG and Elate to make some forward progress. Plus I just like Red Ruby, even though she has more to prove vs some others.
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Treve
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Mon Jul 23, 2018 1:02 pm

no love for Wonder Gadot who has to date come closest to beating MG? Although I suppose the Distaff is 9f and she seems to go better longer...
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
peeptoad
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Mon Jul 23, 2018 2:54 pm

Treve wrote:no love for Wonder Gadot who has to date come closest to beating MG? Although I suppose the Distaff is 9f and she seems to go better longer...
Can't believe I forgot her since of all those I mentioned she's the one I actually have the most "love" for (even above Ruby). She made me some bank on Oaks day and was an easy lock in the QP. Plus, with the BC at CD this year, she should be closing strongly on the strip...
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Curtis
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Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:06 pm

I’m not Unique Bella’s biggest fan but when she behaves herself she’s the best. She’s the only one I can term as a monster, unless Red Ruby can continue as she steps up in class. I like Abel Tasman and Elate next. It will be interesting to see where Mike Smith ends up as things progress.
stark
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Mon Jul 23, 2018 5:11 pm

Curtis wrote:I’m not Unique Bella’s biggest fan.


Obviously.
As I recall you wanted to play Dr. and do some sort of surgical procedure on her ;)
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Kennedy
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Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:39 pm

It's kind of after the fact because things have changed since the 1st of August but these were BC rankings as of August.

Classic
Accelerate
Hofburg
Seeking the Soul
Diversify
Thunder Snow

Turf
Crystal Ocean
Capri
Roaring Lion
Sadler's Joy
Hawkbill

Mile
Oscar Performance
Alpha Centauri
Analyze It
Rhododendron
Suedois

Sprint
Imperial Hint
Roy H
Promises Fulfilled
American Anthem
Engage

Dirt Mile
Mind Your Biscuits
Bee Jersey
Awesome Slew
Firenze Fire
Catalina Cruiser

Distaff
Abel Tasman
Elate
Unique Bella
Monomoy Girl
Red Ruby

FM Turf
Sistercharlie
Wild Illusion
Hawksmoor
A Raving Beauty
Inflexibility

FM Sprint
Marley's Freedom
Lewis Bay
Skye Diamonds
American Gal
Separationofpowers

Turf Sprint
Long On Value
Imprimis
Disco Partner
Will Call
Bucchero
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Katewerk
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Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:56 pm

A good year for the distaff side to eye the Classic instead.
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Curtis
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Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:09 pm

Katewerk wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:56 pm
A good year for the distaff side to eye the Classic instead.
If someone were to hand you a bag with $3M in it to buy any of the fillies or mares on that list to divert to the Classic, which one would you pick and why?
peeptoad
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:02 am

West Coast will try to make the Classic off works alone: https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... n-to-races
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Katewerk
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 10:56 am

Curtis wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:09 pm
Katewerk wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:56 pm
A good year for the distaff side to eye the Classic instead.
If someone were to hand you a bag with $3M in it to buy any of the fillies or mares on that list to divert to the Classic, which one would you pick and why?
Give me $6m and I'll buy two, Tasmin and Bella. I don't see any names among those five colts listed that make me think "dominating". Tasmin always shows up (not sure about distance though) and Bella is a monster who looks the part, and Smith would probably stay on her. And should they lose, I own Tasmin and Bella, thanks!

But I'm just a fan following along at home -- what do you think?
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Mylute
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:41 am

peeptoad wrote:
Tue Aug 14, 2018 9:02 am
West Coast will try to make the Classic off works alone: https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... n-to-races
Bleh.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
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ElPrado2
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:08 pm

Yummy!
Which of those Euro fillies works on the all-weather?
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Treve
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:27 pm

Curtis wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:09 pm
Katewerk wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:56 pm
A good year for the distaff side to eye the Classic instead.
If someone were to hand you a bag with $3M in it to buy any of the fillies or mares on that list to divert to the Classic, which one would you pick and why?
Elate - she got the 10f distance in 2:02.19 over the heavy/slow Saratoga surface after tracking a hot pace especially for a group of 3yo fillies going the mile and a quarter for the first time. ( :46.96, 1:10, 1:35.87) Granted that means her final quarter wasn't exactly speedy but I wouldn't call it glacial given the context. She also won the Delaware Handicap this year, at the same distance (her lone start this year after a very long layoff) where she moved early with about a half mile to go after being at the back (wise decision otherwise she'd have had to close into a slow pace). Sure she didn't perform last year in the Distaff, but that was her only finish out of the tri lifetime (except for her Ashland where she was vanned off after pulling up)

Abel Tasman - would be my second choice not entirely sure about the distance but most of the times she lost seemed to be because she didn't have quite enough room.

Not on the list... I'd consider Wonder Gadot, but I would like to see how she does in the Travers first. I think the distance suits her and I think she's getting better but it's hard to gauge her walloping of Canadian-bred horses. Let's not forget her 10f win was over Synthetic. Her margin was smaller in the Prince of Wales on dirt, at 9.5f... still closer to 10f than 9f but for some horses that .5f can make a difference.

Ugh @ West Coast. The Classic division is a little light and most of the 3yos have been slow but I'm not convinced that Gronkowski isn't continuing to improve and if Mendelssohn returns to form who knows what we may witness. Hofburg still has a lot of development left and I'd be curious about some of the promising 3yos that avoided the TC trail, or maybe even those that were on the TC trail but with room to improve. Remember this time two years ago no one knew who Arrogate was, two months later he caught California Chrome late in the stretch. Thunder Snow is running against the odds - no horse has won the Dubai World Cup and the Classic the same year (also anyone know when he's supposed to come back?) Diversify is looming larger and larger and while the Distaff side is loaded with talent and consistency, one of the brightest stars is said not to be able to get beyond 9f (Monomoy Girl), I find it highly dubious Unique Bella wants to go beyond 9f as well... in fact looking at her record I realize she's never won as far as 9f she's only gotten to 1 mile 1/16th. Haven't looked closely enough at Red Ruby. But this could also be a year where a male from the speedier miling or longer sprint division might take a crack so I wouldn't necessarily enter one of the Distaffers with absolute confidence. Regardless I think there will be a lot of early speed this year in the Classic, so if I was looking for an upset I'd probably go with a closer or a stalker.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Kennedy
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:47 pm

I like the question and I agree that Elate is the one I'd target if I were looking to push to the Classic. I feel like she, more than perhaps the others, still has such a big scope for improvement. It feels as though she is still building towards a peak that has not been achieved yet and that she is the most solid contender at 10f.

On the left field side of the equation I do kind of wonder if Chad Brown would consider starting to work some of his FM Turf squad on the main track. It's a bit of a crazy pattern that we don't see anyone in the US really trying but if the Classic is weak and you are likely to sweep the top 5 places in the FM Turf are you at all tempted to swing one of them to the main track for a moon shot?

We will often see a male turf horse or two try the Classic but maybe this is a year when a Female Turf horse might give it a try? Probably not but it's fun to consider.
Tessablue
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Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:57 pm

I don't really understand why they keep trying to turn Unique Bella into a router. I would much rather see her face males at 6-8f vs. running in the Distaff. But I've kind of always felt like her reputation is greater than her performances and I'm not going to complain about the fact that she always gets heavily bet down. I didn't like Elate's chances in the BC last year but it does feel like Mott is bringing her around exactly as he wants to this year.

Diversify is a monster right now and IMO stands head and shoulders over the rest in the classic division, although Hofburg should win the Travers and could keep improving. For Breeders Cup purposes I'm just going to ignore Accelerate, because although the horse is very cool Sadler is just terrible in the BC. And I think it's best not to sleep on Gunnevera.

Any thoughts on the 2yos, Kennedy? Feedback sure looks like she could be anything.
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