Early Belmont race prediction.

Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby Ballerina » Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:07 am

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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby barbaro111 » Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:23 am

Apollo wrote:Steve Cauthen was absolutely elite when he won the Triple Crown. Young phenom and the only jockey ever to be named Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year. It is unfathomable a jockey ever won that honor, especially in the late '70s when sports like the NFL were king. It would have been more sensible a couple of decades earlier when horse racing had more of a foothold.

Let's not forget the level Cauthen was on, simply because he slumped later and never regained his teenage dominance.

I don't think Justify gets there. The prop is basically pick-em either way. I'm going to play the No...the Field against Justify.

As always I don't care about race particulars compared to the big picture notion that a horse with this resume is not supposed to win the Triple Crown.

Hofburg would be a rooting interest since I rushed to Gulfstream to bet him in that maiden race on Fountain of Youth day. I didn't even know his name at that point. I just knew I had to get there in time to bet on the 11 horse. Then I stood at the rail cheering for my wager on the 11 horse. Later I found out he technically had a name...Hofburg.


In my humble opinion, any horse that wins the Triple Crown deserves to win it- i don't much care about their resume
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby peeptoad » Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:27 am

Kennedy wrote:I think I'm mostly in agreement with the majority of the opinions I see here in that I do think that Justify is the best horse but I also think that there would be value in opposing him if you were inclined to have a tilt at this race.

Agreed on this line of thinking...

I'm pulling for another TC winner, but I'm hedging on bets. Most likely box Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Hofburg, Noble Indy and/or Blended Citizen (who I think will close regardless, but will prob fall short). I'm tempted to bet Tenfold or Vino across.

But go Justify!! It's win-win either way since I'm prepared to lose $...
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby Treve » Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:38 am

Root for, bet against seems a popular stance today. :D
My most important wish for today is for everyone to come home safe. My second wish is to see a performance for the ages - regardless of outcome. Good luck to everyone and for those fortunate enough to be able to attend in Person I hope you will have a magnificent day!
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby tcw » Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:44 am

Imo pedigree is especially important in this race. Tapit, for example, is prominent in the pedigrees of winners of this race over the past several years. With that in mind, Tenfold's pedigree looks very good for the distance, as does Hofburg's and Vino Rosso's. I'm definitely pulling for Justify, but of the rest these are the horses that seem likely to get the distance based on pedigree.
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby BigDonOKC » Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:16 am

I stand by my early race break down. ;)
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby Big Ten » Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:45 am

My 2018 KY Derby Final Rankings/Finish
1. Justify (1st)
2. Mendelssohn (20th)
3. Bolt d'Oro (12th)
4. Audible (3rd)
5. My Boy Jack (5th)
6. Vino Rosso (10th)
7. Hofburg (7th)
8. Magnum Moon (19th)
9. Good Magic (2nd)
10. Noble Indy (17th)
11. Lone Sailor (8th)
12. Flameaway (13th)
13. Enticed (14th)
14. Solomini (10th)
15. Instilled Regard (4th)
16. Promises Fulfilled (15th)
17. Free Drop Billy (16th)
18. Bravazo (6th)
19. Firenze Fire (11th)
20. Combatant (18th)

Not bad.

Way off on four horses (10+ spots). Nailed three spots correctly. Within five spots with eight other horses.

KY Derby
1st - Justify, won by 2.5

6th - Bravazo, lost by 8
7th - Hofburg, lost by 8.75
9th - Vino Rosso, lost by 10


16th - Free Drop Billy, lost by 41
17th - Noble Indy, lost by 42

Hofburg made up nearly 9.25 lengths in the Kentucky Derby stretch. It's just hard to trust a horse with 1 win in 4 starts at 9/2 and is still only a maiden winner. But Hofburg and Tenfold are the two horses that are preventing me from putting too much money on Vino Rosso.

I probably fear Hofburg more than Tenfold who has Curlin/Tapit top and bottom. I ranked Hofburg 7th and he finished 7th. I was watching how he closed and he might be the one to kill my Vino win ticket. Either him or Tenfold. I just hate the odds on Hofburg. A maiden winner as the 2nd betting choice? But he's also quite dangerous even as an underlay.

Vino Rosso
Brisnet's Late Pace Average = 99.8

Highest in the field.

If Hofburg and some Tenfold weren't so dangerous and I still believe Justify could win this race in a blowout because his B-game can beat Audible's average race or anyone else in this field, I would put $100 for this.

My confidence for Vino Rosso is growing. This race was tailor-made for him to win. Pletcher and JV have a high win %. On paper, Justify tops every category but when he won the Derby, he got compromised to run two weeks later. When he won the Preakness, he gets compromised again to run three weeks later. Others can get their 5-week break.

It's not personal, Justify. It's only business. You grab two smartphones. One was charged to only 80% and the other was charged longer to 100%. You grab the latter because you need it to last the entire day for you. That's every horse here except Justify and Bravazo. Vino Rosso, FTW. Pletcher wins his 4th Belmont.

Justify's breeders knows Vino Rosso is the one to fear since they bred them both. Vino has the pedigree.
Rock Hard Ten. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. California Chrome. Seattle Slew. Secretariat. Affirmed.
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby Apollo » Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:47 pm

barbaro111 wrote:
Apollo wrote:Steve Cauthen was absolutely elite when he won the Triple Crown. Young phenom and the only jockey ever to be named Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year. It is unfathomable a jockey ever won that honor, especially in the late '70s when sports like the NFL were king. It would have been more sensible a couple of decades earlier when horse racing had more of a foothold.

Let's not forget the level Cauthen was on, simply because he slumped later and never regained his teenage dominance.

I don't think Justify gets there. The prop is basically pick-em either way. I'm going to play the No...the Field against Justify.

As always I don't care about race particulars compared to the big picture notion that a horse with this resume is not supposed to win the Triple Crown.

Hofburg would be a rooting interest since I rushed to Gulfstream to bet him in that maiden race on Fountain of Youth day. I didn't even know his name at that point. I just knew I had to get there in time to bet on the 11 horse. Then I stood at the rail cheering for my wager on the 11 horse. Later I found out he technically had a name...Hofburg.


In my humble opinion, any horse that wins the Triple Crown deserves to win it- i don't much care about their resume


I didn't indicate not deserving. Obviously deserving if it happens.

Not likely to win, based on background. In my lifetime the only Triple Crown winners have been excellent at 2. I remembered that from the '70s and basically dismissed the chances of all the fraud attempts in later decades. American Pharoah qualified as a Tripler, as I emphasized and predicted three years ago.

Justify is admittedly an unusual situation since he wasn't ordinary at 2, like so many of the Belmont flops. He didn't race at 2. Therefore it is more difficult to slot him via category. But since the stipulation has been early freak level I'll group him with the failures and see what happens.
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby Big Ten » Sat Jun 09, 2018 5:06 pm

Kentucky Derby
1⁄4 mile – 22.24
1⁄2 mile – 45.77
3⁄4mile – 1:11.01
1 mile – 1:37.35
final – 2:04.20.

(22.24) (23.53) (25.24) (26.34) (26.85)

Preakness
 ​1⁄4 mile – 0:23.11
1⁄2 mile – 0:47.19
3⁄4 mile – 1:11.42
1 mile – 1:36.10
final – 1:55.93

(23.11) (24.08) (24.23) (24.68) (19.83 for final ​3⁄16)

Justify's splits is too similar to Smarty Jones' from 14 years ago. He runs 1:11+ and 1:37 or under naturally with his high cruising speed. Their Derby was a 2:04+ in the slop. Their Preakness was a 1:55+.

With Restoring Hope and Noble Indy there to soften him up, I believe Vino Rosso with the highest career Late Pace averages will catch Justify late for the win. I knew Justify would win the Derby and Preakness. Wasn't sure for Belmont. I don't want to get seduced by this Triple Crown hype again.

I feel slimey going against Justify because I'm loyal to a fault but I get a 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic-feeling with it. Of course I wanted Zenyatta to win but I also knew it was going to be tough so I put some money on 5-1 Blame for the win and we saw what happened.

I might put $60 to win on #8 Vino Rosso. Justify was EVEN but went down to 4-5. I expect the whales to throw down millions on Justify that it can go below 3-5 in a heartbeat. Vino, Hofburg, and Bravazo at in close wagering at 6-1 each. I'm thinking $60 on Vino and $30 on Bravazo.

Justify is headstrong off the track and he could too headstrong on the lead on the track that he tires late like Smarty did. Chasing for the fairytales isn't lucrative enough for me.
Rock Hard Ten. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. California Chrome. Seattle Slew. Secretariat. Affirmed.
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby Kurenai » Sat Jun 09, 2018 6:56 pm

BigDonOKC wrote: :geek: I play by rules the number one Belmont rule is always play the horse in first and second who has been off the longest-- 71 days is a long time.


You were sooooo right! :lol: I was shocked when I saw him moving up and :lol: and thinking about you!
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