Early Belmont race prediction.

Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby Apollo » Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:23 pm

Steve Cauthen was absolutely elite when he won the Triple Crown. Young phenom and the only jockey ever to be named Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year. It is unfathomable a jockey ever won that honor, especially in the late '70s when sports like the NFL were king. It would have been more sensible a couple of decades earlier when horse racing had more of a foothold.

Let's not forget the level Cauthen was on, simply because he slumped later and never regained his teenage dominance.

I don't think Justify gets there. The prop is basically pick-em either way. I'm going to play the No...the Field against Justify.

As always I don't care about race particulars compared to the big picture notion that a horse with this resume is not supposed to win the Triple Crown.

Hofburg would be a rooting interest since I rushed to Gulfstream to bet him in that maiden race on Fountain of Youth day. I didn't even know his name at that point. I just knew I had to get there in time to bet on the 11 horse. Then I stood at the rail cheering for my wager on the 11 horse. Later I found out he technically had a name...Hofburg.
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby Big Ten » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:14 pm

Regression or just being stuck in the mud?

As much as Justify has shown regression, he earned those speed figures in the slop. Something we can't all trust. His 98 Brisnet speed fig is still tied for #1 with Drug O'Neill's Blended Citizen from their recent starts.

That's why I'm hoping for a fast track tomorrow and it looks like we will get it. Justify has only seen two races conditioned as fast in his brief career. His February maiden with a 104 Beyer and his SA Derby win with a 107 Beyer.

If Justify gets the fast track and returns to his Santa Anita Derby form, he is going to blow this field away by at least 5+ lengths.

Justify’s Beyers on a fast track -
Santa Anita Derby - 107
February maiden - 104
Average = 105.5

Justify’s Beyers on a muddy/sloppy track -
Kentucky Derby - 103
March allowance - 101
Preakness - 98
Average = 101.7

Justify’s Brisnet on a fast track -
Santa Anita Derby - 114
February maiden - 100
Average = 107

Justify’s Brisnet on a muddy/sloppy track -
Kentucky Derby - 102
March allowance - 104
Preakness - 98
Average = 101.3

Justify’s Late Pace -
February maiden - 91
March allowance - 88
Santa Anita Derby - 117
Kentucky Derby - 92
Preakness - 88
Dry Average = 104
Wet Average = 87.7


90 if you minus Preakness

Both DRF and Brisnet agree that Justify's last win on the fast track, the Santa Anita Derby, is his best career performance.

Justify seems better on a fast track so he can use that big, powerful stride to kick away faster than if he was stuck in mud. Even the great Easy Goer hated the mud. Secretariat lost to Prove Out as well in the slop. Justify's speed figures might have been compromised by the compressed schedule and the mud.

The race where I started to prefer Seattle Slew over Secretariat. More grit...

1973 Woodward Stakes - Prove Out

1988 Breeders' Cup Juvenile - Is It True

1989 Kentucky Derby - Sunday Silence

Minus Justify's Preakness to compare 2 races vs 2 races and his Beyers under fast conditions is still 3.5 pts better than on the slop. Had the Preakness been fast and Justify won it by over 2 lengths with a 102 Beyer, we probably wouldn't even be talking about him looking exhausted or his regression. For a big horse, he would've kicked clear easier. Fast track benefits his opponents but it could benefit Justify just as much.

I'll keep saying Vino Rosso and Noble Indy for the win. Even Bravazo although that's more genuine from me. I like Lukas. I know my "pathetic" record with Belmont winners and I probably will never like Pletcher and Johnny V. C'mon, Afleet Alex was my last win? A no-brainer!

I'll only say Pletcher will win because I don't want to jinx Justify. Then watch tomorrow. The outcomes I don't want happens... ;)

My Belmont Top 10 Predictions
1. Vino Rosso
2. Hofburg
3. Justify
4. Bravazo
5. Noble Indy
6. Tenfold
7. Blended Citizen
8. Free Drop Billy
9. Restoring Hope (complete toss)
10. Gronkowski (complete toss)
Rock Hard Ten. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. California Chrome. Seattle Slew. Secretariat. Affirmed.
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby MySaladDays » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:35 pm

Big Ten wrote:Hofburg is such bad value as the 2nd betting choice. He has never won a stakes race! Even longshots Noble Indy and Free Drop Billy have won a stakes race. The 50-1, Free Drop Billy, is actually a Grade 1 winner capturing the Breeders' Futurity last year.


I sort thru their pedigrees, both mare and sire profiles and conduit mare profiles, and 50-1 is a good value on FDB. T

hat was one of the resason I posted about him last week. His problem is that his mare's side speed has only shown up in one race......and you don't KNOW if that is based on distance or not, since I've never seen him run at 12F. It might not kick in at all, or it might kick in at the rather unusual disatnce of 12F.

Capping a 12F race like a 9F or even 10F race, on past performances only, just isn't optimum for me.

Some of these horses has good mare speed and crappy sire speed, or good mare stamina but crappy sire stamina, etcc. and you also have to figure out, just as with performance angles, WHAT THEY WLL DO AT 12F.

At any rate, I often pass betting on races when one of the talking heads or "product" producers like one of my horses who starts out with good odds. I don't bet the longshots unless I get a price.

FWIW, I'm doing several different exactas, w/out Justify in them, but betting lightly

P.S. I don't think I've EVER use beyer speed figs for a 12F race. :lol:
Last edited by MySaladDays on Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby Somnambulist » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:36 pm

I don't really know how much pedigree matters. Barely any of them are trained for 12f so it's kinda a free for all, isn't it?
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby MySaladDays » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:42 pm

Somnambulist wrote:I don't really know how much pedigree matters. Barely any of them are trained for 12f so it's kinda a free for all, isn't it?


I could point out why looking at performance and PPs at 9F or 10F is a free for all for a 12F race as well. :lol: Yes, Som, any race where you have horses doing something they have never done before can be a free for all, right?

I play maiden races, so I can't very well use PPs that often. It's sort of how my trajectory into pedigree learning happened...I had to do something. :lol: They are still my favorite races because then money is VERY GOOD. if you get a few trifectas right in the year.

At any rate, Im not against USING TOOLS, free for all or not. :)
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby Somnambulist » Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:47 pm

Definitely not against using tools but I hear yearly people who talk about horses bred for the Belmont who wouldn't even get home first with a head start in an optional claimer. You can be bred for it all day long but plodding along doesn't mean you'll end up being fast enough to do anything.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby Big Ten » Sat Jun 09, 2018 12:13 am

Bourdain kills himself when he had the greatest job ever. I knew about his drug addiction like Carrie Fisher and Andrew Zimmern had. Warriors did their eventual sweep on the Cavs. Just not a good day for me. I already expect the worst tomorrow.

My Top 10 Rooting Interests To Win It -

1. Justify
For obvious reasons. Duh. ;)

2. Bravazo
For Lukas to get his one last shot at glory.

3. Noble Indy
For Castellano and the crazy odds.

4. Free Drop Billy
For Romans saving someone this week.

5. Hofburg
For Mott's 2nd Belmont win.

6. Tenfold
For Curlin.

7. Vino Rosso
For being right.

8. Blended Citizen
Can't think of one.

9. Restoring Hope
For Baffert but nah..toss.

10. Gronkowski
For hating the Patriots. Sorry, Peeptoad. ;-P

It's weird how I think Vino Rosso is the one I think will win but he only ranks 7th among my rooting interests. I'm just not really a Pletcher/Velazquez fan. Never was. Never will be. Most of my reasons for Vino is from my objective opinion and not my heart.

I wouldn't mind seeing Free Drop Billy pull it off. Remember, he's the only other G1 winner in the field. I know it's a stupid name like My Boy Jack. Who cares? He will be the longest shot in the board and Dale Romans saved a woman from choking four days ago! That's got to be rewarded for something.

If Noble Indy is still 35-1 by post time, I might just put $10 on him to win just for kicks. Maybe even on 50-1 Free Drop Billy too. Who wouldn't want to make $350 or $500 from a $10 bet? It's like Mine That Bird was 50-1 in the Derby but was the Canadian 2YO champ the year prior. Hindsight is always 20/20. Indy and Billy are graded-stakes winners that lower odds like Hofburg and Tenfold are not.
Rock Hard Ten. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. California Chrome. Seattle Slew. Secretariat. Affirmed.
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby MySaladDays » Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:10 am

Somnambulist wrote:Definitely not against using tools but I hear yearly people who talk about horses bred for the Belmont who wouldn't even get home first with a head start in an optional claimer. You can be bred for it all day long but plodding along doesn't mean you'll end up being fast enough to do anything.


the year commissioner ran 2nd any self respecting pedigree person had Commissioner in top 2....he had the most sparkling and obvious pedigree for 12F that year. Both sire and damsire had won the Belmont, and he was 1/2 bro to Laugh Track. Tonalist was on performance, he was galloping out 6 furlongs in 1:12.91 in his works.

There was not a whole lot in the PPs or Commmish would not have gone off at 28-1 (BRIS had him running 2nd to last). I couldn't wait to get to the track to play him, I was THAT sure --- and made 25x my investment.

So yeah, I use both performance and pedigree. Crapshoot? Maybe. Depends on how you rate your skills and if you believe you have it right.

This year is pretty tough I think so I won't spend much.
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby Treve » Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:45 am

MySaladDays wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:Definitely not against using tools but I hear yearly people who talk about horses bred for the Belmont who wouldn't even get home first with a head start in an optional claimer. You can be bred for it all day long but plodding along doesn't mean you'll end up being fast enough to do anything.


the year commissioner ran 2nd any self respecting pedigree person had Commissioner in top 2....he had the most sparkling and obvious pedigree for 12F that year. Both sire and damsire had won the Belmont, and he was 1/2 bro to Laugh Track. Tonalist was on performance, he was galloping out 6 furlongs in 1:12.91 in his works.

There was not a whole lot in the PPs or Commmish would not have gone off at 28-1 (BRIS had him running 2nd to last). I couldn't wait to get to the track to play him, I was THAT sure --- and made 25x my investment.

So yeah, I use both performance and pedigree. Crapshoot? Maybe. Depends on how you rate your skills and if you believe you have it right.

This year is pretty tough I think so I won't spend much.


The Belmont more than any other TC race is pedigree-favouring, imo precisely because 12f on Dirt is not trained for anymore as consistently. It's anyone's guess what a bunch of 3yos will do the first time they run that far, but I'd think the plodder with the pedigree in that last quarter might plod on right by those who are biomechanically and genetically challenged for the distance. And if you're wagering exotics then I'd argue pedigree comes in handy even if your plodder doesn't have enough speed to get up for first. Lani and Keen Ice both plodded their way to 3rd. I'd argue the same for Medal Count in 2014, and Patch, also pedigree-suited plodded his way past a few up for 3rd fairly well ahead of Gormley who kinda hit a wall in the final furlong even if he was never very fast to begin with.

I agree with MSD though, this year is tough because there are at least 4 horses with pedigrees in here that seem exceptionally well suited to Belmont and at least 2 more that could be decent for it too. You also have several trainers in here who have already won this race and therefore presumably know how to train for it, so it becomes harder to separate.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Re: Early Belmont race prediction.

Postby War Admiral » Sat Jun 09, 2018 7:44 am

pointgivenfan wrote:I told myself that having American Pharoah win it all makes this less nerve-wracking but that is turning out to be a total lie.

I’m with ya! I thought that after I’d finally seen a Triple Crown winner I could relax a little each time the TC was on the line but 2018 is proving me wrong.
My prediction:
Justify
Vino Rosso
Bravazo
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