Early Belmont race prediction.

Apollo
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 9:23 pm

Steve Cauthen was absolutely elite when he won the Triple Crown. Young phenom and the only jockey ever to be named Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year. It is unfathomable a jockey ever won that honor, especially in the late '70s when sports like the NFL were king. It would have been more sensible a couple of decades earlier when horse racing had more of a foothold.

Let's not forget the level Cauthen was on, simply because he slumped later and never regained his teenage dominance.

I don't think Justify gets there. The prop is basically pick-em either way. I'm going to play the No...the Field against Justify.

As always I don't care about race particulars compared to the big picture notion that a horse with this resume is not supposed to win the Triple Crown.

Hofburg would be a rooting interest since I rushed to Gulfstream to bet him in that maiden race on Fountain of Youth day. I didn't even know his name at that point. I just knew I had to get there in time to bet on the 11 horse. Then I stood at the rail cheering for my wager on the 11 horse. Later I found out he technically had a name...Hofburg.
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Big Ten
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:14 pm

Regression or just being stuck in the mud?

As much as Justify has shown regression, he earned those speed figures in the slop. Something we can't all trust. His 98 Brisnet speed fig is still tied for #1 with Drug O'Neill's Blended Citizen from their recent starts.

That's why I'm hoping for a fast track tomorrow and it looks like we will get it. Justify has only seen two races conditioned as fast in his brief career. His February maiden with a 104 Beyer and his SA Derby win with a 107 Beyer.

If Justify gets the fast track and returns to his Santa Anita Derby form, he is going to blow this field away by at least 5+ lengths.

Justify’s Beyers on a fast track -
Santa Anita Derby - 107
February maiden - 104
Average = 105.5

Justify’s Beyers on a muddy/sloppy track -
Kentucky Derby - 103
March allowance - 101
Preakness - 98
Average = 101.7

Justify’s Brisnet on a fast track -
Santa Anita Derby - 114
February maiden - 100
Average = 107

Justify’s Brisnet on a muddy/sloppy track -
Kentucky Derby - 102
March allowance - 104
Preakness - 98
Average = 101.3

Justify’s Late Pace -
February maiden - 91
March allowance - 88
Santa Anita Derby - 117
Kentucky Derby - 92
Preakness - 88
Dry Average = 104
Wet Average = 87.7


90 if you minus Preakness

Both DRF and Brisnet agree that Justify's last win on the fast track, the Santa Anita Derby, is his best career performance.

Justify seems better on a fast track so he can use that big, powerful stride to kick away faster than if he was stuck in mud. Even the great Easy Goer hated the mud. Secretariat lost to Prove Out as well in the slop. Justify's speed figures might have been compromised by the compressed schedule and the mud.

The race where I started to prefer Seattle Slew over Secretariat. More grit...

1973 Woodward Stakes - Prove Out

1988 Breeders' Cup Juvenile - Is It True

1989 Kentucky Derby - Sunday Silence

Minus Justify's Preakness to compare 2 races vs 2 races and his Beyers under fast conditions is still 3.5 pts better than on the slop. Had the Preakness been fast and Justify won it by over 2 lengths with a 102 Beyer, we probably wouldn't even be talking about him looking exhausted or his regression. For a big horse, he would've kicked clear easier. Fast track benefits his opponents but it could benefit Justify just as much.

I'll keep saying Vino Rosso and Noble Indy for the win. Even Bravazo although that's more genuine from me. I like Lukas. I know my "pathetic" record with Belmont winners and I probably will never like Pletcher and Johnny V. C'mon, Afleet Alex was my last win? A no-brainer!

I'll only say Pletcher will win because I don't want to jinx Justify. Then watch tomorrow. The outcomes I don't want happens... ;)

My Belmont Top 10 Predictions
1. Vino Rosso
2. Hofburg
3. Justify
4. Bravazo
5. Noble Indy
6. Tenfold
7. Blended Citizen
8. Free Drop Billy
9. Restoring Hope (complete toss)
10. Gronkowski (complete toss)
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
MySaladDays
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:35 pm

Big Ten wrote:Hofburg is such bad value as the 2nd betting choice. He has never won a stakes race! Even longshots Noble Indy and Free Drop Billy have won a stakes race. The 50-1, Free Drop Billy, is actually a Grade 1 winner capturing the Breeders' Futurity last year.
I sort thru their pedigrees, both mare and sire profiles and conduit mare profiles, and 50-1 is a good value on FDB. T

hat was one of the resason I posted about him last week. His problem is that his mare's side speed has only shown up in one race......and you don't KNOW if that is based on distance or not, since I've never seen him run at 12F. It might not kick in at all, or it might kick in at the rather unusual disatnce of 12F.

Capping a 12F race like a 9F or even 10F race, on past performances only, just isn't optimum for me.

Some of these horses has good mare speed and crappy sire speed, or good mare stamina but crappy sire stamina, etcc. and you also have to figure out, just as with performance angles, WHAT THEY WLL DO AT 12F.

At any rate, I often pass betting on races when one of the talking heads or "product" producers like one of my horses who starts out with good odds. I don't bet the longshots unless I get a price.

FWIW, I'm doing several different exactas, w/out Justify in them, but betting lightly

P.S. I don't think I've EVER use beyer speed figs for a 12F race. :lol:
Last edited by MySaladDays on Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Somnambulist
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:36 pm

I don't really know how much pedigree matters. Barely any of them are trained for 12f so it's kinda a free for all, isn't it?
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
MySaladDays
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:42 pm

Somnambulist wrote:I don't really know how much pedigree matters. Barely any of them are trained for 12f so it's kinda a free for all, isn't it?
I could point out why looking at performance and PPs at 9F or 10F is a free for all for a 12F race as well. :lol: Yes, Som, any race where you have horses doing something they have never done before can be a free for all, right?

I play maiden races, so I can't very well use PPs that often. It's sort of how my trajectory into pedigree learning happened...I had to do something. :lol: They are still my favorite races because then money is VERY GOOD. if you get a few trifectas right in the year.

At any rate, Im not against USING TOOLS, free for all or not. :)
Somnambulist
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Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:47 pm

Definitely not against using tools but I hear yearly people who talk about horses bred for the Belmont who wouldn't even get home first with a head start in an optional claimer. You can be bred for it all day long but plodding along doesn't mean you'll end up being fast enough to do anything.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Big Ten
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Sat Jun 09, 2018 12:13 am

Bourdain kills himself when he had the greatest job ever. I knew about his drug addiction like Carrie Fisher and Andrew Zimmern had. Warriors did their eventual sweep on the Cavs. Just not a good day for me. I already expect the worst tomorrow.

My Top 10 Rooting Interests To Win It -

1. Justify
For obvious reasons. Duh. ;)

2. Bravazo
For Lukas to get his one last shot at glory.

3. Noble Indy
For Castellano and the crazy odds.

4. Free Drop Billy
For Romans saving someone this week.

5. Hofburg
For Mott's 2nd Belmont win.

6. Tenfold
For Curlin.

7. Vino Rosso
For being right.

8. Blended Citizen
Can't think of one.

9. Restoring Hope
For Baffert but nah..toss.

10. Gronkowski
For hating the Patriots. Sorry, Peeptoad. ;-P

It's weird how I think Vino Rosso is the one I think will win but he only ranks 7th among my rooting interests. I'm just not really a Pletcher/Velazquez fan. Never was. Never will be. Most of my reasons for Vino is from my objective opinion and not my heart.

I wouldn't mind seeing Free Drop Billy pull it off. Remember, he's the only other G1 winner in the field. I know it's a stupid name like My Boy Jack. Who cares? He will be the longest shot in the board and Dale Romans saved a woman from choking four days ago! That's got to be rewarded for something.

If Noble Indy is still 35-1 by post time, I might just put $10 on him to win just for kicks. Maybe even on 50-1 Free Drop Billy too. Who wouldn't want to make $350 or $500 from a $10 bet? It's like Mine That Bird was 50-1 in the Derby but was the Canadian 2YO champ the year prior. Hindsight is always 20/20. Indy and Billy are graded-stakes winners that lower odds like Hofburg and Tenfold are not.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
MySaladDays
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Sat Jun 09, 2018 3:10 am

Somnambulist wrote:Definitely not against using tools but I hear yearly people who talk about horses bred for the Belmont who wouldn't even get home first with a head start in an optional claimer. You can be bred for it all day long but plodding along doesn't mean you'll end up being fast enough to do anything.
the year commissioner ran 2nd any self respecting pedigree person had Commissioner in top 2....he had the most sparkling and obvious pedigree for 12F that year. Both sire and damsire had won the Belmont, and he was 1/2 bro to Laugh Track. Tonalist was on performance, he was galloping out 6 furlongs in 1:12.91 in his works.

There was not a whole lot in the PPs or Commmish would not have gone off at 28-1 (BRIS had him running 2nd to last). I couldn't wait to get to the track to play him, I was THAT sure --- and made 25x my investment.

So yeah, I use both performance and pedigree. Crapshoot? Maybe. Depends on how you rate your skills and if you believe you have it right.

This year is pretty tough I think so I won't spend much.
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Treve
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Sat Jun 09, 2018 4:45 am

MySaladDays wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:Definitely not against using tools but I hear yearly people who talk about horses bred for the Belmont who wouldn't even get home first with a head start in an optional claimer. You can be bred for it all day long but plodding along doesn't mean you'll end up being fast enough to do anything.
the year commissioner ran 2nd any self respecting pedigree person had Commissioner in top 2....he had the most sparkling and obvious pedigree for 12F that year. Both sire and damsire had won the Belmont, and he was 1/2 bro to Laugh Track. Tonalist was on performance, he was galloping out 6 furlongs in 1:12.91 in his works.

There was not a whole lot in the PPs or Commmish would not have gone off at 28-1 (BRIS had him running 2nd to last). I couldn't wait to get to the track to play him, I was THAT sure --- and made 25x my investment.

So yeah, I use both performance and pedigree. Crapshoot? Maybe. Depends on how you rate your skills and if you believe you have it right.

This year is pretty tough I think so I won't spend much.
The Belmont more than any other TC race is pedigree-favouring, imo precisely because 12f on Dirt is not trained for anymore as consistently. It's anyone's guess what a bunch of 3yos will do the first time they run that far, but I'd think the plodder with the pedigree in that last quarter might plod on right by those who are biomechanically and genetically challenged for the distance. And if you're wagering exotics then I'd argue pedigree comes in handy even if your plodder doesn't have enough speed to get up for first. Lani and Keen Ice both plodded their way to 3rd. I'd argue the same for Medal Count in 2014, and Patch, also pedigree-suited plodded his way past a few up for 3rd fairly well ahead of Gormley who kinda hit a wall in the final furlong even if he was never very fast to begin with.

I agree with MSD though, this year is tough because there are at least 4 horses with pedigrees in here that seem exceptionally well suited to Belmont and at least 2 more that could be decent for it too. You also have several trainers in here who have already won this race and therefore presumably know how to train for it, so it becomes harder to separate.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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War Admiral
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Sat Jun 09, 2018 7:44 am

pointgivenfan wrote:I told myself that having American Pharoah win it all makes this less nerve-wracking but that is turning out to be a total lie.
I’m with ya! I thought that after I’d finally seen a Triple Crown winner I could relax a little each time the TC was on the line but 2018 is proving me wrong.
My prediction:
Justify
Vino Rosso
Bravazo
Government is not the solution to the problem. Government is the problem. Ronald Reagan.
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Ballerina
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Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:07 am

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barbaro111
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Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:23 am

Apollo wrote:Steve Cauthen was absolutely elite when he won the Triple Crown. Young phenom and the only jockey ever to be named Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year. It is unfathomable a jockey ever won that honor, especially in the late '70s when sports like the NFL were king. It would have been more sensible a couple of decades earlier when horse racing had more of a foothold.

Let's not forget the level Cauthen was on, simply because he slumped later and never regained his teenage dominance.

I don't think Justify gets there. The prop is basically pick-em either way. I'm going to play the No...the Field against Justify.

As always I don't care about race particulars compared to the big picture notion that a horse with this resume is not supposed to win the Triple Crown.

Hofburg would be a rooting interest since I rushed to Gulfstream to bet him in that maiden race on Fountain of Youth day. I didn't even know his name at that point. I just knew I had to get there in time to bet on the 11 horse. Then I stood at the rail cheering for my wager on the 11 horse. Later I found out he technically had a name...Hofburg.
In my humble opinion, any horse that wins the Triple Crown deserves to win it- i don't much care about their resume
peeptoad
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Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:27 am

Kennedy wrote:I think I'm mostly in agreement with the majority of the opinions I see here in that I do think that Justify is the best horse but I also think that there would be value in opposing him if you were inclined to have a tilt at this race.
Agreed on this line of thinking...

I'm pulling for another TC winner, but I'm hedging on bets. Most likely box Tenfold, Vino Rosso, Hofburg, Noble Indy and/or Blended Citizen (who I think will close regardless, but will prob fall short). I'm tempted to bet Tenfold or Vino across.

But go Justify!! It's win-win either way since I'm prepared to lose $...
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Treve
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Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:38 am

Root for, bet against seems a popular stance today. :D
My most important wish for today is for everyone to come home safe. My second wish is to see a performance for the ages - regardless of outcome. Good luck to everyone and for those fortunate enough to be able to attend in Person I hope you will have a magnificent day!
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
tcw
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Sat Jun 09, 2018 8:44 am

Imo pedigree is especially important in this race. Tapit, for example, is prominent in the pedigrees of winners of this race over the past several years. With that in mind, Tenfold's pedigree looks very good for the distance, as does Hofburg's and Vino Rosso's. I'm definitely pulling for Justify, but of the rest these are the horses that seem likely to get the distance based on pedigree.
BigDonOKC
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Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:16 am

I stand by my early race break down. ;)
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Big Ten
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Sat Jun 09, 2018 11:45 am

My 2018 KY Derby Final Rankings/Finish
1. Justify (1st)
2. Mendelssohn (20th)
3. Bolt d'Oro (12th)
4. Audible (3rd)
5. My Boy Jack (5th)
6. Vino Rosso (10th)
7. Hofburg (7th)
8. Magnum Moon (19th)
9. Good Magic (2nd)
10. Noble Indy (17th)
11. Lone Sailor (8th)
12. Flameaway (13th)
13. Enticed (14th)
14. Solomini (10th)
15. Instilled Regard (4th)
16. Promises Fulfilled (15th)
17. Free Drop Billy (16th)
18. Bravazo (6th)
19. Firenze Fire (11th)
20. Combatant (18th)

Not bad.

Way off on four horses (10+ spots). Nailed three spots correctly. Within five spots with eight other horses.

KY Derby
1st - Justify, won by 2.5

6th - Bravazo, lost by 8
7th - Hofburg, lost by 8.75
9th - Vino Rosso, lost by 10


16th - Free Drop Billy, lost by 41
17th - Noble Indy, lost by 42

Hofburg made up nearly 9.25 lengths in the Kentucky Derby stretch. It's just hard to trust a horse with 1 win in 4 starts at 9/2 and is still only a maiden winner. But Hofburg and Tenfold are the two horses that are preventing me from putting too much money on Vino Rosso.

I probably fear Hofburg more than Tenfold who has Curlin/Tapit top and bottom. I ranked Hofburg 7th and he finished 7th. I was watching how he closed and he might be the one to kill my Vino win ticket. Either him or Tenfold. I just hate the odds on Hofburg. A maiden winner as the 2nd betting choice? But he's also quite dangerous even as an underlay.

Vino Rosso
Brisnet's Late Pace Average = 99.8

Highest in the field.

If Hofburg and some Tenfold weren't so dangerous and I still believe Justify could win this race in a blowout because his B-game can beat Audible's average race or anyone else in this field, I would put $100 for this.

My confidence for Vino Rosso is growing. This race was tailor-made for him to win. Pletcher and JV have a high win %. On paper, Justify tops every category but when he won the Derby, he got compromised to run two weeks later. When he won the Preakness, he gets compromised again to run three weeks later. Others can get their 5-week break.

It's not personal, Justify. It's only business. You grab two smartphones. One was charged to only 80% and the other was charged longer to 100%. You grab the latter because you need it to last the entire day for you. That's every horse here except Justify and Bravazo. Vino Rosso, FTW. Pletcher wins his 4th Belmont.

Justify's breeders knows Vino Rosso is the one to fear since they bred them both. Vino has the pedigree.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Apollo
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Sat Jun 09, 2018 2:47 pm

barbaro111 wrote:
Apollo wrote:Steve Cauthen was absolutely elite when he won the Triple Crown. Young phenom and the only jockey ever to be named Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year. It is unfathomable a jockey ever won that honor, especially in the late '70s when sports like the NFL were king. It would have been more sensible a couple of decades earlier when horse racing had more of a foothold.

Let's not forget the level Cauthen was on, simply because he slumped later and never regained his teenage dominance.

I don't think Justify gets there. The prop is basically pick-em either way. I'm going to play the No...the Field against Justify.

As always I don't care about race particulars compared to the big picture notion that a horse with this resume is not supposed to win the Triple Crown.

Hofburg would be a rooting interest since I rushed to Gulfstream to bet him in that maiden race on Fountain of Youth day. I didn't even know his name at that point. I just knew I had to get there in time to bet on the 11 horse. Then I stood at the rail cheering for my wager on the 11 horse. Later I found out he technically had a name...Hofburg.
In my humble opinion, any horse that wins the Triple Crown deserves to win it- i don't much care about their resume
I didn't indicate not deserving. Obviously deserving if it happens.

Not likely to win, based on background. In my lifetime the only Triple Crown winners have been excellent at 2. I remembered that from the '70s and basically dismissed the chances of all the fraud attempts in later decades. American Pharoah qualified as a Tripler, as I emphasized and predicted three years ago.

Justify is admittedly an unusual situation since he wasn't ordinary at 2, like so many of the Belmont flops. He didn't race at 2. Therefore it is more difficult to slot him via category. But since the stipulation has been early freak level I'll group him with the failures and see what happens.
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Big Ten
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Sat Jun 09, 2018 5:06 pm

Kentucky Derby
1⁄4 mile – 22.24
1⁄2 mile – 45.77
3⁄4mile – 1:11.01
1 mile – 1:37.35
final – 2:04.20.

(22.24) (23.53) (25.24) (26.34) (26.85)

Preakness
 ​1⁄4 mile – 0:23.11
1⁄2 mile – 0:47.19
3⁄4 mile – 1:11.42
1 mile – 1:36.10
final – 1:55.93

(23.11) (24.08) (24.23) (24.68) (19.83 for final ​3⁄16)

Justify's splits is too similar to Smarty Jones' from 14 years ago. He runs 1:11+ and 1:37 or under naturally with his high cruising speed. Their Derby was a 2:04+ in the slop. Their Preakness was a 1:55+.

With Restoring Hope and Noble Indy there to soften him up, I believe Vino Rosso with the highest career Late Pace averages will catch Justify late for the win. I knew Justify would win the Derby and Preakness. Wasn't sure for Belmont. I don't want to get seduced by this Triple Crown hype again.

I feel slimey going against Justify because I'm loyal to a fault but I get a 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic-feeling with it. Of course I wanted Zenyatta to win but I also knew it was going to be tough so I put some money on 5-1 Blame for the win and we saw what happened.

I might put $60 to win on #8 Vino Rosso. Justify was EVEN but went down to 4-5. I expect the whales to throw down millions on Justify that it can go below 3-5 in a heartbeat. Vino, Hofburg, and Bravazo at in close wagering at 6-1 each. I'm thinking $60 on Vino and $30 on Bravazo.

Justify is headstrong off the track and he could too headstrong on the lead on the track that he tires late like Smarty did. Chasing for the fairytales isn't lucrative enough for me.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Kurenai
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Sat Jun 09, 2018 6:56 pm

BigDonOKC wrote: :geek: I play by rules the number one Belmont rule is always play the horse in first and second who has been off the longest-- 71 days is a long time.
You were sooooo right! :lol: I was shocked when I saw him moving up and :lol: and thinking about you!
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