Early Belmont race prediction.

BigDonOKC
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Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:10 pm

Some think this is a walk around for Justify they see no horse who cant take him on. :(
other see it as just another big let down where some one who has no right being in the race has the best day of his life. :o

the race at each call as I see it.
1/4 mile 22.00 or under Justify on top of Restoring Hope and Noble Indy some will say look Justify looking in Restoring Hope eye --- :P :P right like Justify know Hope only has 3/4 of a mile left. :o :o as they come to the 1/2 mile still dead fast at 44.00 justify still looking good after all he has one time in his life ran a 1/2 mile in 44 one, so that not hard ;)
At the 3/4 and 1 mile Blended Citizen and Vino Rosso have moved up to 4th to set up a run but with a fast 93 mile it has started to take a lot out of the field. :?
Now if I am right up to this point the race has two out comes. A track record will be set 2:23 by Gronkowski :o or some one takes him at the wire. 8-) 1 1/2 mile at 2.40 :geek:
by the way where did Gronkowski come from dead last 20 out and late run.
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Curtis
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Wed Jun 06, 2018 5:38 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:Some think this is a walk around for Justify they see no horse who cant take him on. :(
other see it as just another big let down where some one who has no right being in the race has the best day of his life. :o

the race at each call as I see it.
1/4 mile 22.00 or under Justify on top of Restoring Hope and Noble Indy some will say look Justify looking in Restoring Hope eye --- :P :P right like Justify know Hope only has 3/4 of a mile left. :o :o as they come to the 1/2 mile still dead fast at 44.00 justify still looking good after all he has one time in his life ran a 1/2 mile in 44 one, so that not hard ;)
At the 3/4 and 1 mile Blended Citizen and Vino Rosso have moved up to 4th to set up a run but with a fast 93 mile it has started to take a lot out of the field. :?
Now if I am right up to this point the race has two out comes. A track record will be set 2:23 by Gronkowski :o or some one takes him at the wire. 8-) 1 1/2 mile at 2.40 :geek:
by the way where did Gronkowski come from dead last 20 out and late run.
Dear Lester, er I mean Don,

You have completely spoiled me. I need a spread sheet—as well as some of the mint juleps you evidently still have left over from the Derby—as for the life of me, I just can’t handicap without it. Please include as soon as possible. My financial stability depends on it.

Thanks!
—Curtis, President, CEO and Chief Bottle Washer of the Seattle Chapter of your Fanclub.
WarBiscuit
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Wed Jun 06, 2018 6:00 pm

A track record will be set 2:23 by Gronkowski? Yikes. Not even if he had a missile strapped to his back. Here's my early Belmont race prediction: Justify wins.

Justify
Hofburg
Noble Indy

Bravazo
"One horse-laugh is worth ten thousand syllogisms. It is not only more effective; it is also vastly more intelligent." H.L. Mencken
BigDonOKC
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Wed Jun 06, 2018 6:16 pm

Curtis wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:Some think this is a walk around for Justify they see no horse who cant take him on. :(
other see it as just another big let down where some one who has no right being in the race has the best day of his life. :o

the race at each call as I see it.
1/4 mile 22.00 or under Justify on top of Restoring Hope and Noble Indy some will say look Justify looking in Restoring Hope eye --- :P :P right like Justify know Hope only has 3/4 of a mile left. :o :o as they come to the 1/2 mile still dead fast at 44.00 justify still looking good after all he has one time in his life ran a 1/2 mile in 44 one, so that not hard ;)
At the 3/4 and 1 mile Blended Citizen and Vino Rosso have moved up to 4th to set up a run but with a fast 93 mile it has started to take a lot out of the field. :?
Now if I am right up to this point the race has two out comes. A track record will be set 2:23 by Gronkowski :o or some one takes him at the wire. 8-) 1 1/2 mile at 2.40 :geek:
by the way where did Gronkowski come from dead last 20 out and late run.


Dear Lester, er I mean Don, i AM NOT
Lester DON'T KNOW HIM SO WHY REFER TO HIM WHEN I POST :|

You have completely spoiled me. I need a spread sheet—as well as some of the mint juleps you evidently still have left over from the Derby—as for the life of me, I just can’t handicap without it. Please include as soon as possible. My financial stability depends on it.

Thanks!
—Curtis, President, CEO and Chief Bottle Washer of the Seattle Chapter of your Fanclub.
BigDonOKC
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Wed Jun 06, 2018 6:17 pm

WarBiscuit wrote:A track record will be set 2:23 by Gronkowski? Yikes. Not even if he had a missile strapped to his back. Here's my early Belmont race prediction: Justify wins.

Justify
Hofburg
Noble Indy

Bravazo
WHY DOES HE WIN?
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Big Ten
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Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:01 pm

Victor Espinoza who won the Triple Crown might end up the spoiler here with Tenfold.

It's a jockey's race to me. Victor lost twice and won it once. He understands the pressure.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
BigDonOKC
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Wed Jun 06, 2018 8:05 pm

Big Ten wrote:Victor Espinoza who won the Triple Crown might end up the spoiler here with Tenfold.

It's a jockey's race to me. Victor lost twice and won it once. He understands the pressure.
He can't be the spoiler with out a horse-- Santa on tenfold.
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Ballerina
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Wed Jun 06, 2018 10:09 pm

Suprfecta box bet - Key Justify with Bravazo, Tenfold, and Instilled Regard
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Curtis
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Wed Jun 06, 2018 11:12 pm

Ballerina wrote:Suprfecta box bet - Key Justify with Bravazo, Tenfold, and Instilled Regard
I don’t believe Instilled Regard is in, so you’ll need someone else to fill out your bet.
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Ballerina
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:08 am

Curtis wrote:
Ballerina wrote:Suprfecta box bet - Key Justify with Bravazo, Tenfold, and Instilled Regard
I don’t believe Instilled Regard is in, so you’ll need someone else to fill out your bet.
Wishful thinking on my part. Forget about a super-fecta bet. Make it just a tri-fecta. Nothing else signals to me.
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Curtis
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:18 am

Ballerina wrote:
Curtis wrote:
Ballerina wrote:Suprfecta box bet - Key Justify with Bravazo, Tenfold, and Instilled Regard
I don’t believe Instilled Regard is in, so you’ll need someone else to fill out your bet.
Wishful thinking on my part. Forget about a super-fecta bet. Make it just a tri-fecta. Nothing else signals to me.
I thought Instilled Regard had a shot to make the Super in the Derby but because I’m too cheap to bet a $1 Super, I wasn’t rewarded. I put him in the Tri but again being frugal, I decided to drop Good Magic from the second spot in favor of Audible. Had I been able to bet a dime Super, I would have had that. Story of my life. Hit it in the Preakness though, not bad for what it was.
MySaladDays
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:01 am

Love your scheme, Don. Don't think he will win but I like your thinking outside the box.


5 horse Exacta box :
Free Drop Billy, Vino Rosso, Hofburg, Tenfold, Restoring Hope

For Don: $5 show on Gronkowski :lol: why not


Will be back with my trifecta, superfecta and super high five if I have time.
Last edited by MySaladDays on Fri Jun 08, 2018 12:57 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Big Ten
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:04 am

After looking at the Brisnet PPs, I'm starting to like Vino Rosso the most to pull the upset but four of them can be so close in talent, it's hard to separate them.

I like Vino because unlike Hofburg, he doesn't come from way, way back and the track looks to be muddy. Curlin loved the mud. I also trust Velazquez and Pletcher more than I do with Ortiz and Bill Mott for this race.

I think Hofburg will be overbet. I considered Bravazo one of the worst horses in the Kentucky Derby field and he actually finished 3/4 length ahead of Hofburg for 6th. Bravazo needed only about three strides to nail Justify in the Preakness.

#1, 3, 4, 8

#9 Noble Indy - Two bullet works in Belmont. Castellano and 30-1 ML makes him interesting.

Blended Citizen with Langfuhr on the bottom makes him a toss for me.

Top 10 (with intuition and heart)
1. Justify
2. Vino Rosso
3. Bravazo
4. Hofburg
5. Tenfold
6. Noble Indy
7. Blended Citizen
8. Gronkowski (let all the Pats fans bet him)
9. Free Drop Billy
10. Restoring Hope

I kept confusing Free Drop Billy with the Desormeaux Brothers' My Boy Jack.

Noble Indy really is interesting. I'm hoping Birdstone odds with a Castellano/Pletcher. Training beautifully on the track. He could rank in my Top 4 by post time bumping off Bravazo. Pletcher-Pletcher-Lukas. I actually thought Noble Indy was a decent bottom play in the Derby. Same tier as Lone Sailor.

Pay attention to the Pletcher duo.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Ballerina
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 2:06 am

Curtis wrote:
I thought Instilled Regard had a shot to make the Super in the Derby but because I’m too cheap to bet a $1 Super, I wasn’t rewarded. I put him in the Tri but again being frugal, I decided to drop Good Magic from the second spot in favor of Audible. Had I been able to bet a dime Super, I would have had that. Story of my life. Hit it in the Preakness though, not bad for what it was.
Most overused words in horse race wagering - shoulda, coulda, woulda, and if. Don't feel alone, however, we've all been there.
peeptoad
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 8:50 am

This is very early, so my opinion may change before Sat, but on first glance at the pps this is Justify's race to lose. Barring something unforeseen If he runs back to the SA Derby he likely wins IMHO, but it's a little questionable whether or not that will happen. Baffert says he on the muscle and doing well, so I'm inclined to think he'll at least run his race on Saturday, whether or not he wins.
If he's beaten my guess is Vino Rosso, Tenfold, or Hofburg beats him. I give Bravazo an outside chance if he can get the type of trip that he got last time (sitting around third a bit off the pace but not too far back) albeit under different pace circumstances. Hofburg is for sure the wise guy this year and I really don't want 4-1 on a horse who is eligible for a NW1X. Vino Rosso might get enough pace to run at, or at least he'll be on the outside and will get a cleaner trip this time. His pedigree is nearly tops in the field for 12 panels and the price will be better than Hofburg's.

The horse I am not sure what to do with is Noble Indy. I want to toss him because I don't even think he's the LA Derby winner if My Boy Jack had gotten a better ride that day, but he does have stamina in his ped and he's got a forward style. Anyone have an opinion on him?
BigDonOKC
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 9:54 am

MySaladDays wrote:Love your scheme, Don. Don't think he will win but I like your thinking outside the box.

;) Glad to see some one understand
4 horse $2 Exacta box ($24):
Free Drop Billy, Vino Rosso, Hofburg, Tenfold

For Don: $5 show on Gronkowski :lol: why not

:) you are going to wish it was a win ticket
Will be back with my trifecta, superfecta and super high five if I have time.
:geek: I play by rules the number one Belmont rule is always play the horse in first and second who has been off the longest-- 71 days is a long time.
stark
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:22 am

$1 Trifecta

Justify and Vino Rosso
with
Justify and Vino Rosso
with
All others on the bottom.

$16.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
MySaladDays
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:12 am

BigDonOKC wrote: :geek: I play by rules the number one Belmont rule is always play the horse in first and second who has been off the longest-- 71 days is a long time.
I honestly never heard that one before.

If he hits, I will add it to my (ever increasing) angles.
MySaladDays
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:22 am

peeptoad wrote:The horse I am not sure what to do with is Noble Indy. I want to toss him because I don't even think he's the LA Derby winner if My Boy Jack had gotten a better ride that day, but he does have stamina in his ped and he's got a forward style. Anyone have an opinion on him?
I wouldn't talk anyone off a horse, but I myself am not using Noble Indy. It a pace scenario thing. Either he goes w/Justify in which case he is used early and loses in the stretch (because he is already somewhat distance challenged); If he doesn't run fast at beginning to gain position, and waits til later, he will be beseiged by Justify or one of the other stretch runners who will be on him like flies on rice. I just don't see a pace scenario that would work for NI, w/out blinkers, and from post #9. If he was a galloper/high stamina horse, I could see it....he could be out there galloping in his own world and let everyone else mess around with each other. But that is not his running style.

OTOH, he is an improving sort who doesn't lose a lot of ground, but he's still a toss from my ticket......I like him, I think he is an Elite 9F horse.

As for Vino Rosso fans, there has never been a horse who won Belmont with Dosage between 3.54 and 4.00. That is never. Maybe he will break new ground like the Apollo curse being broken. :)

OTOH, James Scully's little blog over on twinspires says 7 of the last 15 Belmont Stakes winners earned a declining Speed rating in the previous start.
Noble Indy and Vino Rosso are 2 of the horses who fulfill those parameters, so what do I know.
Last edited by MySaladDays on Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
BigDonOKC
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Thu Jun 07, 2018 12:51 pm

MySaladDays wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote: :geek: I play by rules the number one Belmont rule is always play the horse in first and second who has been off the longest-- 71 days is a long time.
I honestly never heard that one before.

If he hits, I will add it to my (ever increasing) angles.
Will you have now and it has paid so keep and eye on it, no rule is 100%.
The best example of this rule was when rags kick curlin as in the Belmont she had been off 5 weeks and 1 day. :geek:
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