2018 Preakness Stakes

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stark
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Sun May 06, 2018 2:00 pm

Preakness Stakes: Justify likely to face small cast
By Jay Privman

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – There were 19 horses who took on Justify in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, but by Sunday morning here at Churchill Downs, few trainers were even entertaining the thought of trying him again in two weeks in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico, let alone committing to the race.

As a result, the Preakness field figures to be considerably smaller, quite likely in the single digits. Of the Derby runners, only Bravazo, who finished sixth, was certain for the May 19 Preakness. And only Good Magic, who finished second, was being seriously considered.

The rest are scattering, either leaving the Triple Crown altogether – like Bolt d’Oro – or awaiting the final leg, the Belmont Stakes on June 9, like third-place finisher Audible.

In addition to Justify and Bravazo, the only other horses who as of Sunday morning seemed certain to run in the Preakness were Diamond King and Sporting Chance. Another possibility is Quip, the Tampa Bay Derby winner who was kept out of the Derby to point for the Preakness, but he has overlapping ownership with Justify via WinStar Farm. WinStar also is involved in the ownership of Audible.

Did Justify winning the Derby preclude Quip from running in the Preakness?

“I hesitate to say right now. I think we’ll see how the week plays out,” said Elliott Walden, the president and chief executive of WinStar. “My first inclination is to go ahead and run him, but I need to talk to our partners and see. We had set the horse up to run in the Preakness, and he worked very well on Thursday.

“If Justfiy is supposed to win the Triple Crown, he’ll beat Quip. I just think you try to manage your horses the best you can. I think it is the right thing for Quip,” Walden said of the Preakness. “Not making a final decision today, but the horse is doing really well.”

Bravazo and Sporting Chance, who on Saturday was fourth in the Pat Day Mile, are trained by D. Wayne Lukas, setting up a compelling battle among trainers in the Preakness. Lukas is the all-time leader with 14 Triple Crown race wins. Bob Baffert, who trains Justify, got his 13th Triple Crown race win in the Kentucky Derby. If Justify wins the Preakness, he and Lukas are tied.

“I think they’ll both go. The Preakness has been good to me,” Lukas said Sunday, noting that “the last time I finished sixth in the Derby, I won the Preakness with Oxbow.”

Oxbow, in 2013, was Lukas’s sixth Preakness winner.

Baffert also has won the Preakness six times, including with all four of his previous Derby winners – Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem, and American Pharoah. With a win, either Baffert or Lukas would be tied with R. Wyndham Walden – who trained in the late 1800s – for the most Preakness victories among trainers.

Lukas said Bravazo and Sporting Chance would travel by van to Pimlico on the Tuesday or Wednesday of Preakness Week. Justify will fly there next week.

Luis Contreras rode Bravazo in the Kentucky Derby and Sporting Chance in the Pat Day Mile. Lukas said he had yet to decide which horse Contreras would ride in the Preakness and who would pick up the other mount.

Diamond King, trained by John Servis, received a free berth in the Preakness by virtue of his victory in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel on April 21, a “Win and You’re In” race for the Preakness. He has won four times in six starts. Servis won the Preakness in 2004 with Derby winner Smarty Jones.

– additional reporting by David Grening
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Ballerina
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Sun May 06, 2018 3:05 pm

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Big Ten
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Sun May 06, 2018 5:32 pm

I think Audible is more of a threat to Justify than Good Magic in the Preakness. But since they both have the same ownership, they'll just keep Audible in the barn.

Mark #7 for Baffert. He's still 4 for 4 in the Preakness after his horses won the Derby. The Belmont is where I see Justify losing but the Preakness the last two runnings with Nyquist and Always Dreaming have showed there's no mortal lock in it anymore.

Will watch the Preakness on NBC at home. If Triple Crown is on the line, will watch the Belmont at Los Alamitos. Will bet on neither one. Only watch them both as a racing fan. The only horse racing bet I plan to do now is for the Kentucky Derby. Even Breeders' Cup feels like another cash grab.
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Apollo
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Sun May 06, 2018 10:52 pm

Sport of Wimps. Every horse not trained by Baffert should be trained by Lukas. There might be reason to tune in every few weeks instead of every few years, like an Olympic cycle.

Last year there were 5 or 6 Derby horses in the Preakness and they tried to tout it as a new trend. I knew that was a joke. Wimps galore.

Just imagine some young sports fan who picks out a favorite horse in the Derby. That horse falters but he expects to root for him again in the Preakness. Wait...he's not running for 3 more months? To heck with this sport.

And I don't blame any of them who feel that way.

I love these geniuses who skip the Preakness to wait for the Haskell. Yeah, and I wish I had been a frog instead of a human. Tough choice.

Bravazo ran well. I didn't realize how well until I watched the replay. He ran evenly toward the finish. My Boy Jack charged late and barely got past him. Hofburg was also charging late and hit the wire just behind Bravazo.
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Ballerina
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Mon May 07, 2018 3:25 am

Big Ten wrote:I think Audible is more of a threat to Justify than Good Magic in the Preakness. But since they both have the same ownership, they'll just keep Audible in the barn.
Not the same owner or trainer. I hope they both show up - 2nd and 3rd place money is good. :-)
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bare it all
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Mon May 07, 2018 8:07 am

Saw someone tweet the Preakness will be Justify versus 7-8 Lukas horses and a couple of AOCs Pimlico can lure from Laurel.

Had a giggle at the expense of horse racing on that.
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Charlie
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Mon May 07, 2018 10:32 pm

I don't know why people don't want to race against him. He's not some invincible monster. Besides, it's a 1.5 million dollar grade 1 race, second and third place payout nice.

He ran a hard Derby in terrible conditions and is coming back after two weeks, he also has little foundation. While I do think he will win the Preakness, I also wouldn't be surprised if he runs on the poor side.
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Flanders
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Tue May 08, 2018 4:24 am

Ballerina wrote:
Big Ten wrote:I think Audible is more of a threat to Justify than Good Magic in the Preakness. But since they both have the same ownership, they'll just keep Audible in the barn.
Not the same owner or trainer. I hope they both show up - 2nd and 3rd place money is good. :-)
Justify and Audible have the same owners, which is what he meant.
Charlie wrote:I don't know why people don't want to race against him. He's not some invincible monster. Besides, it's a 1.5 million dollar grade 1 race, second and third place payout nice.

He ran a hard Derby in terrible conditions and is coming back after two weeks, he also has little foundation. While I do think he will win the Preakness, I also wouldn't be surprised if he runs on the poor side.
I don't think its that they are scared. Its that the owners probably pushed for a lot of these horses to run because it was the Kentucky Derby. That is where the huge stud deals are going to come from, being the Derby winner. Some of the horses probably came out with some bumps, bruises and abrasions that need to be dealt with. Some are planning the rest of the horses season out. As in Bolt d'Oro, he gets a break for a bit, then will race through January and retire. I'd be really surprised if WinStar sends any of their own horses to race against Justify regardless of what Walden said about Quip. If Justify goes into the Belmont looking for a Triple Crown I doubt we will see Audible there.
Essentially what it all comes down to is trying to get the best stud deal. Kentucky Derby win is best. After that you look for easy wins however you can, unless you are the Derby winner, then you need to go for the Triple Crown.
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Kurenai
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Tue May 08, 2018 10:53 am

I wouldn't want to run against Justify in the Preakness either. Rest up and run in the Belmont where he is vulnerable.

Well I would run if the field is meh and I'd have a fresh horse to go for 2nd place. Other option: if I have a horse I'm sure won't get the Belmont distance. Not a wimp here, but those are very valid reasons. They all looked damn tired coming down the stretch.

Justify isn't invincible and I don't think he is a "monster", if he continues to progress and not regress after that schedule, then he might very well turn into one though.
stark
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Tue May 08, 2018 11:00 am

While I do think a mid-week feature race attracts some no-hopers who are looking for a 2nd or 3rd place check to deposit, and I do think there are plenty of mares who look for black type finishes before heading off to the shed, I don't think for a minute that anybody enters a Triple Crown race with the intentions/hopes/dreams of one of the runner-up spots.

They are in it to win it, plain and simple, doesn't matter one iota what the payoffs are for finishing behind the winner.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Sparrow Castle
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Tue May 08, 2018 12:40 pm

Jennie Rees Verified account @TracksideJennie
9m9 minutes ago
#Preakness: @WinStarCEO tells @PreaknessStakes PR team that Quip is officially headed to #Baltimore. 'He deserves the opportunity We purposely skipped the Derby pointing for the Preakness.' TBC @BrissetRodolphe @flothejock @MDHorseRadio @PimlicoRC @NBCSports @NBCSportsPR
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Charlie
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Tue May 08, 2018 1:09 pm

All valid points, but I didn't just mean the derby horses running back in the Preakness.

I just think its odd so many people are "running scared", I don't remember that happening in recent memory.
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Flanders
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Tue May 08, 2018 4:18 pm

Charlie wrote:All valid points, but I didn't just mean the derby horses running back in the Preakness.

I just think its odd so many people are "running scared", I don't remember that happening in recent memory.
I just looked at the past 10 runnings of the Preakness. Average field size is exactly 11. Two years had under 10, 2015(8) and 2013(9). Only once was the gate full at 14(2011).
I mean I don't have to be completely negative of peoples' reasons for not going. Normally the Lexington winner goes to the Preakness. Instead they ran him in the Derby and now he gets a break. They tried to get Greyvitos into the Preakness, let's hope they don't go with him because his last 2 races weren't great. But there are 2 horses that would have been in the field most likely had things gone differently.
Right now I think the field size is looking like 8 horses but a few others could always show up and make it an average size field.
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Ballerina
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Wed May 09, 2018 3:39 pm

I can't see why Adible's owners wouldn't race him against Justify. Going 2nd to Justify is no embarrassment. Medaglia d'Oro ran 2nd to a lot of horses. Never hurt his stud career.
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Flanders
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Wed May 09, 2018 4:09 pm

Ballerina wrote:I can't see why Adible's owners wouldn't race him against Justify. Going 2nd to Justify is no embarrassment. Medaglia d'Oro ran 2nd to a lot of horses. Never hurt his stud career.
but he is owned by exactly the same people. its not just one common owner, the entire partnership is the same. i can't see them sending him against Justify in the Belmont IF Justify is going for the TC.
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Wed May 09, 2018 4:13 pm

Jeremy Balan Verified account @BH_JBalan
13m13 minutes ago
Mick Ruis says the Preakness is still on the table for Bolt d'Oro. Like others, he's interested to see what happens w/Justify. Bolt was supposed to come back to California but has jogged @ Keeneland the last 2 days.

"You'll know by (next) Wednesday if he'll run in the Preakness"
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Wed May 09, 2018 4:15 pm

Sparrow Castle wrote:Jeremy Balan Verified account @BH_JBalan
13m13 minutes ago
Mick Ruis says the Preakness is still on the table for Bolt d'Oro. Like others, he's interested to see what happens w/Justify. Bolt was supposed to come back to California but has jogged @ Keeneland the last 2 days.

"You'll know by (next) Wednesday if he'll run in the Preakness"
This guy sure does love to waffle.
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Wed May 09, 2018 5:01 pm

sounds like tom amoss is waiting to see if justify runs too - before he commits to entering lone sailor - so who is confirmed so far, regardless of whether justify runs or not? the two d wayne runners and the john servis horse? maybe good magic?
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Wed May 09, 2018 5:03 pm

sorry... I see quip is going
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Treve
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Wed May 09, 2018 5:26 pm

Flanders wrote:
Ballerina wrote:I can't see why Adible's owners wouldn't race him against Justify. Going 2nd to Justify is no embarrassment. Medaglia d'Oro ran 2nd to a lot of horses. Never hurt his stud career.
but he is owned by exactly the same people. its not just one common owner, the entire partnership is the same. i can't see them sending him against Justify in the Belmont IF Justify is going for the TC.
For the same reason they're sending Quip out in the Preakness? "If he's meant to win it he'll win it"? And I'm sure if Justify loses they'd rather have won it with another of their horses instead of losing that stallion value to a competitor.
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