2018 Arkansas Derby

Spahny
Posts: 968
Joined: Wed Nov 27, 2013 9:02 pm

Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:57 pm

tcw wrote:A convincing win by MM, but the drifting out in the stretch is NOT what you want to see. With that said, he still managed to close in 12 seconds flat which is VERY good, especially going 9f.
More than a second slower than the Oaklawn Handicap but same final fraction as City of Light and Accelerate even with drifting. I wouldn't sweat it.
luvsgeldings
Posts: 825
Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2014 6:18 pm

Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:59 pm

a couple of years ago Nyquist drifted out in the stretch when he won the Florida Derby - all he did was come back to win the KY Derby - it almost looked like MM saw something before he started to drift out - very glad he won - and oh yes.... he is so very handsome!!!
Tessablue
Posts: 3412
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:29 am
Location: Boston

Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:04 pm

It was over when he put his ears up on the lead. He's still a bit green but he's also really good. We've got one very nice Derby ahead of us!
User avatar
Diver52
Posts: 1593
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 12:44 pm
Location: Redlands, CA

Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:07 pm

Solomini wrong lead again. Sigh.
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
User avatar
Sparrow Castle
Posts: 4718
Joined: Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:44 pm

Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:10 pm

Diver52 wrote:Solomini wrong lead again. Sigh.
Yeah, I noticed that too.
tcw
Posts: 1080
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 12:18 am

Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:14 pm

Spahny wrote:
tcw wrote:A convincing win by MM, but the drifting out in the stretch is NOT what you want to see. With that said, he still managed to close in 12 seconds flat which is VERY good, especially going 9f.
More than a second slower than the Oaklawn Handicap but same final fraction as City of Light and Accelerate even with drifting. I wouldn't sweat it.
Similar to the UAE and SA Derbies, the early fractions were on the tepid side which of course figures into the final time. But most importantly, he closed very fast even with the drifting out which was likely an anomaly based on his pps.

Really looking forward to the Derby as this year's field looks outstanding.
Tessablue
Posts: 3412
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:29 am
Location: Boston

Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:07 pm

The AK Derby does tend to produce fast closing fractions relative to the other preps, but twelve flat is great under any circumstances and he opened up the way he was supposed to. The pace was easy but we've already seen him lay off of a quick pace between horses, so I'm not overly concerned about his Derby trip.

He's very talented but sort of a wildcard. I think he might be the horse most worth watching in the works and gallops, because he's very physically impressive and Pletcher horses tend to work how they feel leading up to the race.
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4156
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:14 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:I'd love to see an updated Derby points list. If Combatant earned 10 points for his 4th today, that gives him 32. I think that leaves him just on the other side of the 'bubble' in 21st.
With Runaway Ghost's injury that puts him at #20. But because you have to count Gronkowski as #20, you need to be #19... If another defection occurs he'd draw in.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
User avatar
Sparrow Castle
Posts: 4718
Joined: Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:44 pm

Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:23 pm

Treve wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:I'd love to see an updated Derby points list. If Combatant earned 10 points for his 4th today, that gives him 32. I think that leaves him just on the other side of the 'bubble' in 21st.
With Runaway Ghost's injury that puts him at #20. But because you have to count Gronkowski as #20, you need to be #19... If another defection occurs he'd draw in.
My hunch is he'll run in the Derby, but...

Robert Yates @RobertYates1982
2h2 hours ago
No decision regarding @OaklawnRacing Arkansas Derby runner-up Quip running in the Kentucky Derby, per Elliott Walden immediately after the race. Has the points to run.
User avatar
Big Ten
Posts: 664
Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:27 am

Closed fast. Faster than Justify but only a 98 Beyer. Hasn't changed my mind on my pick but MM looks better than Audible. Deep crop. The result I wanted happened. Now waiting for another three weeks to see if Baffert beats Pletcher. Collision course of Scat Daddies, Apollo curses, and Baffert vs Pletcher.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:36 am

The drifting was pretty worrisome.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
Rick1323
Posts: 828
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:00 pm

Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:45 am

Somnambulist wrote:The drifting was pretty worrisome.
2 races in a row makes me wonder if he isn't sore somewhere. The 98 BSF indicates he needs to get faster...........
Everyone come home sound.....
barbaro111
Posts: 476
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 11:43 pm

Sun Apr 15, 2018 10:56 am

Rick1323 wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:The drifting was pretty worrisome.
2 races in a row makes me wonder if he isn't sore somewhere. The 98 BSF indicates he needs to get faster...........
American Pharoah had a Beyer figure of 105 in the Arkansas Derby- just sayin'
Somnambulist
Posts: 7382
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 5:59 pm

Sun Apr 15, 2018 11:01 am

Rick1323 wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:The drifting was pretty worrisome.
2 races in a row makes me wonder if he isn't sore somewhere. The 98 BSF indicates he needs to get faster...........
Amen my friend. In addition to being sore I wonder if hes peaking at the wrong time.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
stark
Posts: 3965
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:38 pm

Somnambulist wrote:The drifting was pretty worrisome.

Jock said the horse was trying to avoid the tractor tire marks in the ground, FWIW.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
luvsgeldings
Posts: 825
Joined: Sat Mar 22, 2014 6:18 pm

Sun Apr 15, 2018 1:10 pm

caton bredar talked about his 'drifting' this morning on tvg - she basically said it was crazy to think he was getting out because of some soundness issue - she said a horse could not be going as fast as he was coming home if he had some issue - she attributed it to the horse still being a bit green and she thinks by the time he gets to KY it won't be a problem.

watching MM before he took off for his recent gallop at the track before this race.... he looked outstanding - a very happy boy who was feeling really great.

I am impressed with him. and man, he is one good looker too.
Spahny
Posts: 968
Joined: Wed Nov 27, 2013 9:02 pm

Sun Apr 15, 2018 2:17 pm

I could find a reason to not like every horse in this year's race. Easy. At some point you have to like somebody for the win. Kent D on a closer is always interesting. He's not afraid of the rail.

There's about 10 in here I wouldn't talk you off of if you like them. This is one of the more interesting fields in recent years. I'm probably going to want more than 6 or 7 to 1.
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4156
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Sun Apr 15, 2018 5:11 pm

To me the drifting is that of a green horse, not a sore one, given how well he moves and how much he was feeling himself in his recent works/gallops.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Post Reply