2018 Arkansas Derby

Izvestia
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:05 am

Tenfold is my longshot. If I was being forced to stay away from the favourites.
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:31 pm

All about Magnum Moon here. I think he's just better than the rest of these and I want to see him take a nice step forward going 9f. Aside from him I don't really like anyone in here- Solomini will probably finish second on back class alone, but I'd have to see some major improvement to even remotely consider him a Derby horse. Quip beat a couple of nice horses in Tampa Bay but he could not have possibly had a better trip. Not sure who else I could see sneaking onto the board, though... Combatant I guess? I'd be a little surprised if third/fourth place end up anywhere near the winner.
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Curtis
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:23 pm

I really like Solomini but I do think he’s the type that needs to race more and work less. I think Baffert knows that too which is why he wanted to run him in the San Vincente. I think the key to Solomini’s grinding style is to have him on the lead turning into the stretch, in fact if Prat can manage it, taking him to the lead from the gate might not be a bad idea. Solomini doesn’t have the turn of foot to navigate a lot of trouble but he throws down when directly challenged. Baffert being the trainer will kill the price, so unless an exotic bet makes some sense as the day wears on, I’ll probably just watch.
peeptoad
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 1:32 pm

I agree on Solomini. To me he's a grinder with a moderately high cruising speed. I'd love to see what he could do in the Belmont actually.
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Curtis
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 3:21 pm

peeptoad wrote:I agree on Solomini. To me he's a grinder with a moderately high cruising speed. I'd love to see what he could do in the Belmont actually.
I agree, if Justify isn’t going for the TC, that’s a very likely next out after either the Derby or a prep like the Peter Pan, depending of course on where his grinding gets him today.
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:08 pm

In the G2 Oaklawn Handicap, which ran before the Arkansas Derby, last year's winner Inside Straight refused to leave the gate. Maybe he's Facebook or Twitter friends with Chautauqua. :P
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:46 pm

Pretty good win by the hunky Magnum Moon, but...what is up with the drifting out in the stretch? Hasn't he done that before? If he does that in the Derby, he will 1) cost himself the race, or 2) cost someone else the race when he runs into them. Which will also cost him the win. :P
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:52 pm

I'd love to see an updated Derby points list. If Combatant earned 10 points for his 4th today, that gives him 32. I think that leaves him just on the other side of the 'bubble' in 21st.
tcw
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:54 pm

A convincing win by MM, but the drifting out in the stretch is NOT what you want to see. With that said, he still managed to close in 12 seconds flat which is VERY good, especially going 9f.
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Personal Ensign
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:55 pm

What a finish! Magnum Moon wins the Arkansas Derby and goes into the KY Derby undefeated!
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Spahny
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:57 pm

tcw wrote:A convincing win by MM, but the drifting out in the stretch is NOT what you want to see. With that said, he still managed to close in 12 seconds flat which is VERY good, especially going 9f.
More than a second slower than the Oaklawn Handicap but same final fraction as City of Light and Accelerate even with drifting. I wouldn't sweat it.
luvsgeldings
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 7:59 pm

a couple of years ago Nyquist drifted out in the stretch when he won the Florida Derby - all he did was come back to win the KY Derby - it almost looked like MM saw something before he started to drift out - very glad he won - and oh yes.... he is so very handsome!!!
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:04 pm

It was over when he put his ears up on the lead. He's still a bit green but he's also really good. We've got one very nice Derby ahead of us!
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Diver52
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:07 pm

Solomini wrong lead again. Sigh.
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Sparrow Castle
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:10 pm

Diver52 wrote:Solomini wrong lead again. Sigh.
Yeah, I noticed that too.
tcw
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:14 pm

Spahny wrote:
tcw wrote:A convincing win by MM, but the drifting out in the stretch is NOT what you want to see. With that said, he still managed to close in 12 seconds flat which is VERY good, especially going 9f.
More than a second slower than the Oaklawn Handicap but same final fraction as City of Light and Accelerate even with drifting. I wouldn't sweat it.
Similar to the UAE and SA Derbies, the early fractions were on the tepid side which of course figures into the final time. But most importantly, he closed very fast even with the drifting out which was likely an anomaly based on his pps.

Really looking forward to the Derby as this year's field looks outstanding.
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:07 pm

The AK Derby does tend to produce fast closing fractions relative to the other preps, but twelve flat is great under any circumstances and he opened up the way he was supposed to. The pace was easy but we've already seen him lay off of a quick pace between horses, so I'm not overly concerned about his Derby trip.

He's very talented but sort of a wildcard. I think he might be the horse most worth watching in the works and gallops, because he's very physically impressive and Pletcher horses tend to work how they feel leading up to the race.
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Treve
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 10:14 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:I'd love to see an updated Derby points list. If Combatant earned 10 points for his 4th today, that gives him 32. I think that leaves him just on the other side of the 'bubble' in 21st.
With Runaway Ghost's injury that puts him at #20. But because you have to count Gronkowski as #20, you need to be #19... If another defection occurs he'd draw in.
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Sparrow Castle
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 11:23 pm

Treve wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:I'd love to see an updated Derby points list. If Combatant earned 10 points for his 4th today, that gives him 32. I think that leaves him just on the other side of the 'bubble' in 21st.
With Runaway Ghost's injury that puts him at #20. But because you have to count Gronkowski as #20, you need to be #19... If another defection occurs he'd draw in.
My hunch is he'll run in the Derby, but...

Robert Yates @RobertYates1982
2h2 hours ago
No decision regarding @OaklawnRacing Arkansas Derby runner-up Quip running in the Kentucky Derby, per Elliott Walden immediately after the race. Has the points to run.
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Big Ten
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Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:27 am

Closed fast. Faster than Justify but only a 98 Beyer. Hasn't changed my mind on my pick but MM looks better than Audible. Deep crop. The result I wanted happened. Now waiting for another three weeks to see if Baffert beats Pletcher. Collision course of Scat Daddies, Apollo curses, and Baffert vs Pletcher.
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