Mendelssohn

Re: Mendelssohn

Postby BaroqueAgain1 » Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:58 pm

As someone posted earlier, Del Mar is notorious for being a 'horse-for-course' track. I don't think it's a coincidence that the only races where Arrogate suddenly looked ordinary were the three at the seaside track. IMHO, the big grey hated that track, and his performances showed that.
As far as him being a "hype" horse....what Carole said. :roll:
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Re: Mendelssohn

Postby carole » Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:50 pm

Private Thoughts wrote:I would have to agree, he is simply stunning. I remember when I was able to visit Johannesburg at Coolmore before he began his stud career. Scat Daddy was a favorite as well, loved his coloring. Put that together with being a half to Beholder and he is just awesome in my book. Not sure when the Epsom Derby is run, but could they run him here in the KY Derby and then turn around and run in the Epsom Derby? I always thought they were run too close or even on the same day is why nobody has done it.

He is a wonder, I am smitten. :D

Just a note, the Epsom Derby is in the first week of June usually putting it on the same day as the Belmont Stakes.
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Re: Mendelssohn

Postby Treve » Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:53 pm

I mean the sky is the limit with this colt, Coolmore must be absolutely thrilled, but I think if her were to win the Kentucky Derby they'd want to go for the TC? If he lost the Preakness maybe they'd consider him for the Epsom Derby, although I think the Irish Derby would be likelier, in that eventuality.
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Re: Mendelssohn

Postby Treve » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:01 pm

I keep thinking of the chills I got watching the UAE Derby, about 700m out from the finish... and then multiple times as he hit the top of the stretch and just kept rolling.
I finally figured out when was the last time a KY Derby prep gave me that feeling and it was in the Arkansas Derby 2015. (Last year's was emotional for me too, but it wasn't like... goosebumps, chills "what am I seeing here!?" )
Can reason follow emotion, or should I only allow emotion to follow reason? Can I root for him even if I don't think he's got the best chances out of all the contenders, based on the fact he's Beholder's half brother :D ?

I think rationally it's somewhat difficult to rank him/his chances beyond his raw talent. I think he can pull it off... And I like him better than some of the other top contenders.

The good:
- He's won his last 3 races, including his two preps/starts this year
- he's shown a measure of versatility and doesn't need the lead
- he can relax and settle in a tightly packed group
- has experience being boxed in against the rail
- objectively talented
- incredible pedigree (half-siblings on similar nicks with Storm Cat Line stallions having won graded stakes at route distances including a G1 winner at 10f.)
- experience with large crowds
- Triple digit BSF (additionally when looked at his timeform
- The fact he improved so much in the UAE Derby even though it was his first time on dirt and his first time going beyond a mile.
- The fact that of any of the other Derby starters he will have won going a distance that is the closest of any to 10f
- G1 winner in the US (albeit on turf) against several horses currently on the Derby trail and generally well-regarded
- Has run in large horse fields
- Has turf form, which Churchill is notoriously kind to
- World Class trainer who holds the record for most G1 wins in a single season.
- Has a good mind and is intelligent according to connections (and with some observable evidence)

The unknown and/or bad:
- Only one start on Dirt...
- Only start on Dirt outside the US
- Trainer has a 100% off the board record in the KY Derby (although has never come over with a horse anywhere near this one)
- Dismal record of the UAE as a KY Derby Prep
- Has never taken real dirt to the face
- Has never run on a muddy/sloppy/wet dirt track
- Still a bit green
- Mid-May foal
- Regular rider has little KY Derby experience.
- Regular rider may not even be in the saddle on May 5th as one of his other regular rides will be contesting the 2000 Guineas on the same day at Newmarket.

I think those are the main factors in my mind at the moment.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Re: Mendelssohn

Postby sweettalk » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:15 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:As someone posted earlier, Del Mar is notorious for being a 'horse-for-course' track. I don't think it's a coincidence that the only races where Arrogate suddenly looked ordinary were the three at the seaside track. IMHO, the big grey hated that track, and his performances showed that.
As far as him being a "hype" horse....what Carole said. :roll:

i'm not sure he'd regress that badly just because of the surface - regress, sure, but that much? i think dubai took a lot out of him, or he just hit his peak and tailed off. i'm leaning towards dubai really whoopin' him, tho.
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Re: Mendelssohn

Postby Treve » Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:40 pm

sweettalk wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:As someone posted earlier, Del Mar is notorious for being a 'horse-for-course' track. I don't think it's a coincidence that the only races where Arrogate suddenly looked ordinary were the three at the seaside track. IMHO, the big grey hated that track, and his performances showed that.
As far as him being a "hype" horse....what Carole said. :roll:

i'm not sure he'd regress that badly just because of the surface - regress, sure, but that much? i think dubai took a lot out of him, or he just hit his peak and tailed off. i'm leaning towards dubai really whoopin' him, tho.


I think Arrogate was a combination of factors... Dubai, Del Mar, Possibly past his peak... it's possible there was also some kind of issue that wasn't found I mean Always Dreaming's ulcers weren't found for months, Hollendorfer didn't even want to check Songbird out and thankfully Rick insisted... We may never know what happened there.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Re: Mendelssohn

Postby BaroqueAgain1 » Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:06 am

Treve: - Regular rider may not even be in the saddle on May 5th as one of his other regular rides will be contesting the 2000 Guineas on the same day at Newmarket.

IF Ryan Moore does not come over to ride Mendelssohn, who do you think O'Brien would choose to ride his Derby hopeful? IIRC, most of the top-name American jockeys have already committed to a horse, but what about someone like Flavien Prat? Or Florent Geroux, who did such a good job with Gun Runner??
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Re: Mendelssohn

Postby Treve » Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:29 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Treve: - Regular rider may not even be in the saddle on May 5th as one of his other regular rides will be contesting the 2000 Guineas on the same day at Newmarket.

IF Ryan Moore does not come over to ride Mendelssohn, who do you think O'Brien would choose to ride his Derby hopeful? IIRC, most of the top-name American jockeys have already committed to a horse, but what about someone like Flavien Prat? Or Florent Geroux, who did such a good job with Gun Runner??


I was wondering about that too. Those are two pretty viable options who additionally might be familiar with European horses in terms of nuances in the training. Obviously might also depend which horses do or don't make it into the gate... Kent Desormeaux might be looking for another ride if My Boy Jack doesn't make it. Is Victor Espinoza committed yet? What's Calvin Borel up to these days? They've all won the KY Derby three times or more...

I mean so far 2 out of the 3 most popular bookies in the UK and Ireland have "Ryan Moore at Churchill" as the betting favourite :D and Ryan Moore did absolutely love his experience 5 years ago... called it the best day of Racing he's ever experienced, and it's on his Bucket list so there is a good chance... (I mean he's already won the 2000 Guineas multiple times so, it'd make sense to try his luck in the Kentucky Derby)

But it's still an interesting variable to consider.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Re: Mendelssohn

Postby carole » Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:11 am

Let’s face it, even if Ryan Moore chooses Mendelssohn, and his 2000 Guineas mount ends up winning with Samie Heffrrnan on board, Moore will still be the favoured jockey for the horse. He is Coolmore’s absolute no.1, as he should be of course! But I think Ryan Moore can easily choose to ride Mendelssohn and not have to worry about losing the regular mount on the other horse.

As for Mendelssohn, despite the Coolmore connection which I’m not too fond of, I absolutely love this horse! For one because I have a personal connection with his name and two because he just seems so dang classy! I watched his Keeneland sales video and boy was he classy! Stood absolutely still for 2 minutes and was totally un-phased, the handler didn’t have to do anything and he was just a yearling back then! I read an article on the Kentucky Derby website which had quotes from his breeders comparing him strongly to Beholder, both in the looks and temperament department.

Looking forward to seeing him run in the Derby!
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Re: Mendelssohn

Postby Private Thoughts » Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:12 pm

I am, too!! I love, love, love this guy.

I honestly don't think running on dirt again with bother him, he has a good dirt pedigree. Remember how wonderful Barbaro was, and he was able to run on dirt and grass with equal class? or Secretariat, who could win on dirt and turf. There have been lots of others. I don't think the dirt is going to be an issue.

I think this guy is in a class all his own, and I feel he is one of those special horses that will overcome the obstacles and run lights out.
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