Mendelssohn

BaroqueAgain1
Posts: 9541
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Thu Apr 05, 2018 2:58 pm

As someone posted earlier, Del Mar is notorious for being a 'horse-for-course' track. I don't think it's a coincidence that the only races where Arrogate suddenly looked ordinary were the three at the seaside track. IMHO, the big grey hated that track, and his performances showed that.
As far as him being a "hype" horse....what Carole said. :roll:
carole
Posts: 2335
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2013 4:57 pm

Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:50 pm

Private Thoughts wrote:I would have to agree, he is simply stunning. I remember when I was able to visit Johannesburg at Coolmore before he began his stud career. Scat Daddy was a favorite as well, loved his coloring. Put that together with being a half to Beholder and he is just awesome in my book. Not sure when the Epsom Derby is run, but could they run him here in the KY Derby and then turn around and run in the Epsom Derby? I always thought they were run too close or even on the same day is why nobody has done it.

He is a wonder, I am smitten. :D
Just a note, the Epsom Derby is in the first week of June usually putting it on the same day as the Belmont Stakes.
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4156
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Sat Apr 07, 2018 7:53 pm

I mean the sky is the limit with this colt, Coolmore must be absolutely thrilled, but I think if her were to win the Kentucky Derby they'd want to go for the TC? If he lost the Preakness maybe they'd consider him for the Epsom Derby, although I think the Irish Derby would be likelier, in that eventuality.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4156
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:01 pm

I keep thinking of the chills I got watching the UAE Derby, about 700m out from the finish... and then multiple times as he hit the top of the stretch and just kept rolling.
I finally figured out when was the last time a KY Derby prep gave me that feeling and it was in the Arkansas Derby 2015. (Last year's was emotional for me too, but it wasn't like... goosebumps, chills "what am I seeing here!?" )
Can reason follow emotion, or should I only allow emotion to follow reason? Can I root for him even if I don't think he's got the best chances out of all the contenders, based on the fact he's Beholder's half brother :D ?

I think rationally it's somewhat difficult to rank him/his chances beyond his raw talent. I think he can pull it off... And I like him better than some of the other top contenders.

The good:
- He's won his last 3 races, including his two preps/starts this year
- he's shown a measure of versatility and doesn't need the lead
- he can relax and settle in a tightly packed group
- has experience being boxed in against the rail
- objectively talented
- incredible pedigree (half-siblings on similar nicks with Storm Cat Line stallions having won graded stakes at route distances including a G1 winner at 10f.)
- experience with large crowds
- Triple digit BSF (additionally when looked at his timeform
- The fact he improved so much in the UAE Derby even though it was his first time on dirt and his first time going beyond a mile.
- The fact that of any of the other Derby starters he will have won going a distance that is the closest of any to 10f
- G1 winner in the US (albeit on turf) against several horses currently on the Derby trail and generally well-regarded
- Has run in large horse fields
- Has turf form, which Churchill is notoriously kind to
- World Class trainer who holds the record for most G1 wins in a single season.
- Has a good mind and is intelligent according to connections (and with some observable evidence)

The unknown and/or bad:
- Only one start on Dirt...
- Only start on Dirt outside the US
- Trainer has a 100% off the board record in the KY Derby (although has never come over with a horse anywhere near this one)
- Dismal record of the UAE as a KY Derby Prep
- Has never taken real dirt to the face
- Has never run on a muddy/sloppy/wet dirt track
- Still a bit green
- Mid-May foal
- Regular rider has little KY Derby experience.
- Regular rider may not even be in the saddle on May 5th as one of his other regular rides will be contesting the 2000 Guineas on the same day at Newmarket.

I think those are the main factors in my mind at the moment.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
sweettalk
Posts: 1944
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 5:05 pm

Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:15 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:As someone posted earlier, Del Mar is notorious for being a 'horse-for-course' track. I don't think it's a coincidence that the only races where Arrogate suddenly looked ordinary were the three at the seaside track. IMHO, the big grey hated that track, and his performances showed that.
As far as him being a "hype" horse....what Carole said. :roll:
i'm not sure he'd regress that badly just because of the surface - regress, sure, but that much? i think dubai took a lot out of him, or he just hit his peak and tailed off. i'm leaning towards dubai really whoopin' him, tho.
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4156
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Mon Apr 09, 2018 9:40 pm

sweettalk wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:As someone posted earlier, Del Mar is notorious for being a 'horse-for-course' track. I don't think it's a coincidence that the only races where Arrogate suddenly looked ordinary were the three at the seaside track. IMHO, the big grey hated that track, and his performances showed that.
As far as him being a "hype" horse....what Carole said. :roll:
i'm not sure he'd regress that badly just because of the surface - regress, sure, but that much? i think dubai took a lot out of him, or he just hit his peak and tailed off. i'm leaning towards dubai really whoopin' him, tho.
I think Arrogate was a combination of factors... Dubai, Del Mar, Possibly past his peak... it's possible there was also some kind of issue that wasn't found I mean Always Dreaming's ulcers weren't found for months, Hollendorfer didn't even want to check Songbird out and thankfully Rick insisted... We may never know what happened there.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
BaroqueAgain1
Posts: 9541
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:06 am

Treve: - Regular rider may not even be in the saddle on May 5th as one of his other regular rides will be contesting the 2000 Guineas on the same day at Newmarket.

IF Ryan Moore does not come over to ride Mendelssohn, who do you think O'Brien would choose to ride his Derby hopeful? IIRC, most of the top-name American jockeys have already committed to a horse, but what about someone like Flavien Prat? Or Florent Geroux, who did such a good job with Gun Runner??
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4156
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:29 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Treve: - Regular rider may not even be in the saddle on May 5th as one of his other regular rides will be contesting the 2000 Guineas on the same day at Newmarket.

IF Ryan Moore does not come over to ride Mendelssohn, who do you think O'Brien would choose to ride his Derby hopeful? IIRC, most of the top-name American jockeys have already committed to a horse, but what about someone like Flavien Prat? Or Florent Geroux, who did such a good job with Gun Runner??
I was wondering about that too. Those are two pretty viable options who additionally might be familiar with European horses in terms of nuances in the training. Obviously might also depend which horses do or don't make it into the gate... Kent Desormeaux might be looking for another ride if My Boy Jack doesn't make it. Is Victor Espinoza committed yet? What's Calvin Borel up to these days? They've all won the KY Derby three times or more...

I mean so far 2 out of the 3 most popular bookies in the UK and Ireland have "Ryan Moore at Churchill" as the betting favourite :D and Ryan Moore did absolutely love his experience 5 years ago... called it the best day of Racing he's ever experienced, and it's on his Bucket list so there is a good chance... (I mean he's already won the 2000 Guineas multiple times so, it'd make sense to try his luck in the Kentucky Derby)

But it's still an interesting variable to consider.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
carole
Posts: 2335
Joined: Sun Sep 15, 2013 4:57 pm

Tue Apr 10, 2018 6:11 am

Let’s face it, even if Ryan Moore chooses Mendelssohn, and his 2000 Guineas mount ends up winning with Samie Heffrrnan on board, Moore will still be the favoured jockey for the horse. He is Coolmore’s absolute no.1, as he should be of course! But I think Ryan Moore can easily choose to ride Mendelssohn and not have to worry about losing the regular mount on the other horse.

As for Mendelssohn, despite the Coolmore connection which I’m not too fond of, I absolutely love this horse! For one because I have a personal connection with his name and two because he just seems so dang classy! I watched his Keeneland sales video and boy was he classy! Stood absolutely still for 2 minutes and was totally un-phased, the handler didn’t have to do anything and he was just a yearling back then! I read an article on the Kentucky Derby website which had quotes from his breeders comparing him strongly to Beholder, both in the looks and temperament department.

Looking forward to seeing him run in the Derby!
User avatar
Private Thoughts
Posts: 384
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 2:18 pm
Location: Kentucky

Tue Apr 10, 2018 8:12 pm

I am, too!! I love, love, love this guy.

I honestly don't think running on dirt again with bother him, he has a good dirt pedigree. Remember how wonderful Barbaro was, and he was able to run on dirt and grass with equal class? or Secretariat, who could win on dirt and turf. There have been lots of others. I don't think the dirt is going to be an issue.

I think this guy is in a class all his own, and I feel he is one of those special horses that will overcome the obstacles and run lights out.
User avatar
Sparrow Castle
Posts: 4718
Joined: Wed Sep 18, 2013 6:44 pm

Tue Apr 10, 2018 10:39 pm

I'm pretty taken by this guy too. This is a nice composite of all three famous Leslie's Lady kids running side-by-side. (No edit feature on twitter and he knows he misspelled Beholder.)

Alex Evers @A_Evers
How about this for a #NationalSiblingsDay... the big 3 out of Leslies Lady, Mendelssohn, Behonlder, and Into Mischief. Its wild that ive photographed all three!!!
Image
Izvestia
Posts: 3778
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:19 am

That’s a pretty fun photo!!!
BaroqueAgain1
Posts: 9541
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:28 am

I've had my eye on this colt since his first race and I think in Dubai he found his best surface. He's been a good racehorse on grass and synth, but we may have seen a whole 'nother beast in the UAE Derby. 8-)
For anyone listing his need to ship from Ireland as a reason to doubt his chances, remember that this colt shipped in to Del Mar and won the BC Juvy Turf. In March, he shipped to Dubai and won by 18 1/2 lengths on his first race over dirt.
IMHO, shipping could be a total non-factor for him.
Re: the photo. A cute idea, but the graphic artist in me quibbles with the wonky proportions between the three horses.
Last edited by BaroqueAgain1 on Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4156
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:32 am

Thanks for posting that photo! I saw it was reposted by Spendthrift on their instagram, but it's nice to see a full sized version!

I also definitely don't think shipping is that much of a factor, I think that tends to be overblown in this day and age when colts ship regularly all over the country (and Euros ship all over the world). I think AOB knows what he is doing and if he thought shipping could be a detriment, then he'd ship early.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
User avatar
Big Ten
Posts: 664
Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

Wed Apr 11, 2018 1:55 pm

107 Beyer
106 Beyer

Justify vs Mendelssohn

UAE Derby preps don't produce Kentucky Derby while SA Derby produced one in 2012 and 2014 in this decade. Then again, we never had a UAE Derby winner who won by 18+ lengths and breaking the track record by over a second.

This might be the only horse that Team Baffert should fear the most. The rest are running for 3rd place if Justify and Mendelssohn run their races. I'm only going with Team Baffert because he has won the Ky Derby four times before. And just plain and simple intuition on Justify.

Last time Baffert had a horse as good as Justify, the horse won the Triple Crown. Baffert actually finished 1st and 3rd in the 2015 Kentucky Derby so Justify could probably do no worse than Dortmund if he fires. Plus, Breeders' Cup is being held at Churchill. He should have Justify primed.

I'm still NOT aware of Mendelssohn's competition in the UAE or if he simply freaked like Bellamy Road did in the 2005 Wood. Justify beat a highly touted, Bolt d'Oro, while running green. Both horses still have mystery boxes like every Derby starter does.

These are the only two horses I see winning the Kentucky Derby. Not going all over the place like I did last year. Keep it simple. One pick. One bet. One winner. It's Justify being the one for me.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4156
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:01 pm

He beat the track record by by over 2 seconds actually. 2.57 seconds, to be exact.

I don't think he beat the world's biggest KY Derby favourites, but it was actually a pretty well regarded UAE Derby field. It's not like he beat up on a bunch of claimers. Rayya had won the Group III UAE Oaks by 3 3/4 lengths on March 1. Reride had won the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland Park by 2 1/2 lengths on Feb. 25. Gold Town had been two for two on the dirt in Dubai this year, winning by 4 1/4 lengths on Jan. 25 and 10 1/2 lengths on Feb. 15.

And he did all that while running for the first time on dirt.

Also someone pointed out to me that his opening 1/4 of 25 seconds is actually faster than it looks since it's calculated from the standing start, there is no run up, unlike the US, so one can shave off about a second and a half (or so I'm told, words not mine).
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
stark
Posts: 3965
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:03 pm

Treve wrote:He beat the track record by by over 2 seconds actually. 2.57 seconds, to be exact.
Any ballpark idea of how many races that's actually been since the poly was replaced?

thanks
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4156
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:25 pm

stark wrote:
Treve wrote:He beat the track record by by over 2 seconds actually. 2.57 seconds, to be exact.
Any ballpark idea of how many races that's actually been since the poly was replaced?

thanks
The previous record was held on dirt by last year's Thunder Snow (1:57.79) the UAE Derby had been run at 1 3/16 miles at Meydan Racecourse for seven straight years through 2017, the first four of those on synthetic footing, the last three on the dirt. Thunder Snow’s final time was faster than all seven of those UAE Derbies.
So Mendelssohn's race was the 5th on Dirt since the switchback.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
stark
Posts: 3965
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:21 pm

Thanks, do they run at that distance other times of the year or just on the big day?

I guess I'm not convinced yet that it's comparable to American dirt. Looks like a man made product to me? Any conversation about it being sandy or clay based, does anybody compare it to any North American track?

https://twitter.com/TheMichelleYu/statu ... 3469151232

thanks.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4156
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Wed Apr 11, 2018 4:54 pm

Not sure that makes a difference given the surface in the US varies from track to track? I feel like Belmont in particular (big sandy) and Churchill often get cited as weird, I've seen Oaklawn described like that too. Saratoga is said to be deep and tiring...
Not sure there's any one "american dirt".

But Baffert described it as soft and sandy:
Baffert, who is seeking a fourth win in the $US 10million event with Evens favourite West Coast and perennial World Cup participant Mubtaahij, was quoted as saying by the Dubai Racing Club’s media team: “They fluffed up the track and it has a cut in it and they both went over it great. West Coast likes this kind of track, a soft, sandy track.”
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Post Reply