Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) - 03/31/18

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Treve
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Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:12 pm

I was wondering why no one was talking about Mississippi... sneaky good is right I expect him to make a decent account of himself here even if I don't expect him to win.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
MySaladDays
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 2:04 am

I am not well acquainted with the track bias at Gulfstream, but the only horses I like here are Strike Power, Storm Runner, and Catholic Boy. Exacta box.


I'm going to put in a llittle flyer wageron Tip Sheet to hit the board, HFC and cuz I love Stanley Gold.
stark
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 10:44 am

excerpt stolen directly from Thorograph.....

STRIKE POWER
He actually earned a better figure than the winner
of the Fountain Of Youth, since he spotted him six pounds and raced outside him.
This time it’s level weights and the rail with early speed—if he pairs his last Strike
Power is a likely winner.
And there’s no reason he shouldn’t.

I'm in @ 4/1.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Starine
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:53 pm

No surprise with Audible, but I really liked how Hofburg moved forward for the runner-up spot given his lack of experience. Both of the top two had a terrific set-up with those opening splits.

Still, Mendelssohn was the most impressive winner of the day. No contest.
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:53 pm

What were Saez and Albarado thinking? Their speed duel burned out both Strike Power and Promises Fulfilled, costing their colts any chance of winning.
Good win by Audible, who is really quite a strong-looking specimen.
Tessablue
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:54 pm

Not a race I want to evaluate too closely after one watch, because the pace was fast but the final time wasn't great, but I can't say anything against Audible and boy is Hofburg a horse with a future. I wonder if Mott sends him to the Derby off this.

Also, great call and sincere thanks to Kennedy and peep for mentioning Mississippi as a horse to use underneath. Edited to say Treve too.

...did Jerry just say that these horses are "still behind Justify?" Um...
Last edited by Tessablue on Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
stark
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:57 pm

Tessablue wrote:Not a race I want to evaluate too closely after one watch, because the pace was fast but the final time wasn't great, but I can't say anything against Audible and boy is Hofburg a horse with a future. I wonder if Mott sends him to the Derby off this.
40 points in the bank
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Tessablue
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:01 pm

stark wrote:
Tessablue wrote:Not a race I want to evaluate too closely after one watch, because the pace was fast but the final time wasn't great, but I can't say anything against Audible and boy is Hofburg a horse with a future. I wonder if Mott sends him to the Derby off this.
40 points in the bank
Sure, but he's Bill Mott and Juddmonte isn't the most Derby-crazy owner out there. It'd be pretty out of character, but so was this decision...
Last edited by Tessablue on Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Treve
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:04 pm

Hofburg really made a good account of himself here. It was a very unusual move for Mott, but I looked at him closely just based on that. I don't know if Mott will want to send him to the KY Derby or not though but with 40 points the option is on the table. I feel like it would've been a likelier "yes" if he had won. They might aim for the second leg instead... unless he thinks the horse would be ready, but it's definitely not their style to squeeze a horse in they don't think is 100% (both trainer and owner)

Audible closed well into his dream pace... and certainly proved the wisdom that workouts aren't the be all end all for every horse :lol:
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
barbaro111
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:08 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:What were Saez and Albarado thinking? Their speed duel burned out both Strike Power and Promises Fulfilled, costing their colts any chance of winning.
Good win by Audible, who is really quite a strong-looking specimen.
Good question: what were they thinking? not very smart
Tessablue
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:17 pm

Looking at the Trakus data, my concerns about the final time are mitigated somewhat... like in the Holy Bull, Audible actually finished really well despite drifting around in the stretch (was he tired or green? no idea). Hofburg had a tough task with Audible really getting the jump on him, but like in his maiden race he did his best running on the turn rather than in the stretch. But he's got plenty of room to improve and did I mention his absolutely drop-dead gorgeous pedigree? I'm not sure there's a prettier one out there. It has to be said that the pace absolutely contributed to the performance of the top two here, and that will have to be a major consideration in the Derby.

Catholic Boy was a major disappointment, perhaps he's better off not going to the Derby after all.
thinair
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:40 pm

Tessablue wrote:
stark wrote:
Tessablue wrote:Not a race I want to evaluate too closely after one watch, because the pace was fast but the final time wasn't great, but I can't say anything against Audible and boy is Hofburg a horse with a future. I wonder if Mott sends him to the Derby off this.
40 points in the bank
Sure, but he's Bill Mott and Juddmonte isn't the most Derby-crazy owner out there. It be pretty out of character, but so was this decision...

If I had to guess, he would consider the Lexington-Preakness route, or Peter Pan-Belmont, if he decides to go for the TC races at all. Hofburg is good, though, great setup or not today.
middleground
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:09 pm

Today's big winner is Leslie's Lady.
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Treve
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 9:10 pm

middleground wrote:Today's big winner is Leslie's Lady.
Correct!
She has a Medaglia d'Oro yearling colt on the ground who foaled April 4th last year. She should be dropping her American Pharoah any day now...
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Apollo
Posts: 290
Joined: Thu Sep 26, 2013 1:05 pm

Sat Mar 31, 2018 11:32 pm

Hofburg won the walking ring again, although obviously not nearly as decisively as that maiden race a month ago. Striking specimen.

You rarely see that type of masochistic sacrifice on the front end at Gulfstream. After those two blew themselves out of it I immediately turned attention to Audible and Hofburg toward the rear. Once Audible got the jump on Hofburg so decisively when the move had to be made, the race seemed all but decided and the remainder a formality. I spent the remainder of the day trying to figure out if it was experience or ability or jockey instincts that caused the explosive separation.

I haven't seen the NBC coverage but if Jerry Bailey places Justify above Audible I have to agree. Audible keeps going but both in the Holy Bull and today he seemed to be working hard while doing it. I'm not confident there's another floor. Not so with Justify, who has shown glimpses of freak ability while mostly bored.
Apollo
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 11:33 pm

Oh, I forgot to mention the absolute highlight of the day:

Irish War Cry barely outrunning the starting gate. That horse never ceases to make me laugh. I still heard people touting him today.
thinair
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Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:16 am

Apollo wrote:Oh, I forgot to mention the absolute highlight of the day:

Irish War Cry barely outrunning the starting gate. That horse never ceases to make me laugh. I still heard people touting him today.

This is a similar response I get from people that hear I actually read your posts.

Try a pre-race opinion sometime. While I guarantee they won't be as brilliant as your post-race redboards, they might give you at least a little credibility. It's never too late.....though in your case.....
tcw
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Sun Apr 01, 2018 10:25 am

99 BSF for Audible.
stark
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Sun Apr 01, 2018 11:13 am

Doe anybody remember all the way back to December?
Any comments from Pletcher with regards to entering Audible in a one mile turf race at Aqueduct?
Was he considered to be on the triple crown trail then?

Thanks, just curious.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
thinair
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Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:46 pm

Sun Apr 01, 2018 12:34 pm

stark wrote:Doe anybody remember all the way back to December?
Any comments from Pletcher with regards to entering Audible in a one mile turf race at Aqueduct?
Was he considered to be on the triple crown trail then?

Thanks, just curious.

He was an MTO in that race.

He was entered subsequently in the Damon Runyan, a NY Bred restricted race at one mile, to be run in late December. That race was ultimately not run until the middle of January because of two weeks of bad weather, during which Todd decided to ship him to Florida....where he suddenly became a completely different horse.
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