Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) - 03/31/18

PJMIII
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:56 pm

Catholic Boy Strong in Final Florida Derby Breeze

Robert LaPenta and Madaket Stables' Catholic Boy breezed an energetic four furlongs in :48.46 March 25 at Gulfstream Park in preparation for a start in the $1 million Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) March 31.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... rby-breeze

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Tessablue
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:43 pm

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... derby-castI'm as thrilled as I am shocked that Hofburg is running in this race... Mott must think very highly of him to try him here off two starts. Based on his last start he could be any kind, looking forward to seeing what he does here.
Apollo
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Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:44 pm

Excellent news on Hofburg. I bet on him last time and I'll be there on Saturday.

But can't imagine he'll be good value here. Opening line was 15/1 in the maiden race and it might be similar in the Florida Derby.
stark
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Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:47 pm

1 Strike Power Mark Hennig Luis Saez 4-1

2 Millionaire Runner Jamie Mejia Jose Batista 50-1

3 Tip Sheet Stanley Gold Edgard Zayas 30-1

4 Promises Fulfilled Dale Romans Robby Albarado 3-1

5 Storm Runner Dale Romans Tyler Gaffalione 20-1

6 Catholic Boy Jonathan Thomas Irad Ortiz. Jr. 7-2

7 Hofburg Bill Mott Jose Ortiz 20-1

8 Audible Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 9-5

9 Mississippi Mark Casse Juliem Leparoux 12-1
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:36 pm

Under the category of "they knew" or "follow the money".....

WHY wasn't Audible the first or second betting choice in the Holy Bull?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
thinair
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Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:51 pm

stark wrote:Under the category of "they knew" or "follow the money".....

WHY wasn't Audible the first or second betting choice in the Holy Bull?
The better question is how was he as low as 3:1. He was coming out of a win in an off-the-turf NY Bred race against three rivals.
stark
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Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:13 pm

I'm smelling something fishy.......don't think Audible should be the 9/5 favourite in here.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Tessablue
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Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:45 pm

The odds I'm most confused by are Strike Power's. He's up against some nice horses in here, he has major issues with his lead changes and and I just don't see any indication that he will improve going 9f. Audible is the kind of horse I want to instinctively go against because of his price and pedigree, but he's also hard to deny; Free Drop Billy isn't proving to be much of a barometer but I think Audible was pretty genuinely good last time out. This looks like a really solid field (hard to dislike Catholic Boy given how highly I think of Flameaway), but in addition to Hofburg (whose pedigree belongs in an art museum somewhere) I sort of like Storm Runner at a price. He quit last time but I can't really blame him because he was rank early and had Bad Rosario on board. If he can get outside- or in front of- Promises Fulfilled, I think he could hang on for a piece. Really looking forward to this race.
Kennedy
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Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:29 pm

I do think that Audible will take some beating because he can cruise along pretty well and still finish. Pletcher horses seem to have that ability to sustain a long drive and I think that's the skill that will be necessary to win this race because most like to be forwardly placed and I don't think they want Promises Fulfilled to get another half in :48.

But a horse who has caught my eye is Mississippi. He's small and doesn't look big or strong enough to handle the "classic" types but I think there is a real runner in there. Both of his races at GP this year have been sneaky good. It wouldn't shock me at all to see him a part of the finish here.

I suspect that Strike Power is going to try and go to the front. I thought his connections were overly cautious last time, perhaps thinking that he wasn't genuine at the distance and they let Promises Fulfilled get an easy lead and dominate things. I don't think that happens here and we'll see a more genuine pace I think this will wind up shaking out the less robust. Catholic Boy should get a pace that suits him but I wonder if he'll attack soon enough with so many eager pressers in here. Audible should be able to get first run on him.

Audible
Catholic Boy
Mississippi
peeptoad
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Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:38 pm

Re: the odds- Audible or Catholic Boy will be the PTF imo... Promises may get support at the windows off his last, but I think the Pletcher horse will beat him out as chalk. Catholic Boy is going get support and his price may drop to low for me, but he is my tepid top choice. This race really could go any way; I don;'t care for Audible that much based on his overall CV and his works, but it's a Pletcher horse at GP in the spring so he;'s a must use.
My price horse might be Mississippi... I agree with you top 3, Kennedy, just maybe in a different order.
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Treve
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Thu Mar 29, 2018 1:12 pm

I was wondering why no one was talking about Mississippi... sneaky good is right I expect him to make a decent account of himself here even if I don't expect him to win.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
MySaladDays
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 2:04 am

I am not well acquainted with the track bias at Gulfstream, but the only horses I like here are Strike Power, Storm Runner, and Catholic Boy. Exacta box.


I'm going to put in a llittle flyer wageron Tip Sheet to hit the board, HFC and cuz I love Stanley Gold.
stark
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 10:44 am

excerpt stolen directly from Thorograph.....

STRIKE POWER
He actually earned a better figure than the winner
of the Fountain Of Youth, since he spotted him six pounds and raced outside him.
This time it’s level weights and the rail with early speed—if he pairs his last Strike
Power is a likely winner.
And there’s no reason he shouldn’t.

I'm in @ 4/1.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Starine
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:53 pm

No surprise with Audible, but I really liked how Hofburg moved forward for the runner-up spot given his lack of experience. Both of the top two had a terrific set-up with those opening splits.

Still, Mendelssohn was the most impressive winner of the day. No contest.
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:53 pm

What were Saez and Albarado thinking? Their speed duel burned out both Strike Power and Promises Fulfilled, costing their colts any chance of winning.
Good win by Audible, who is really quite a strong-looking specimen.
Tessablue
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:54 pm

Not a race I want to evaluate too closely after one watch, because the pace was fast but the final time wasn't great, but I can't say anything against Audible and boy is Hofburg a horse with a future. I wonder if Mott sends him to the Derby off this.

Also, great call and sincere thanks to Kennedy and peep for mentioning Mississippi as a horse to use underneath. Edited to say Treve too.

...did Jerry just say that these horses are "still behind Justify?" Um...
Last edited by Tessablue on Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
stark
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 6:57 pm

Tessablue wrote:Not a race I want to evaluate too closely after one watch, because the pace was fast but the final time wasn't great, but I can't say anything against Audible and boy is Hofburg a horse with a future. I wonder if Mott sends him to the Derby off this.
40 points in the bank
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Tessablue
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:01 pm

stark wrote:
Tessablue wrote:Not a race I want to evaluate too closely after one watch, because the pace was fast but the final time wasn't great, but I can't say anything against Audible and boy is Hofburg a horse with a future. I wonder if Mott sends him to the Derby off this.
40 points in the bank
Sure, but he's Bill Mott and Juddmonte isn't the most Derby-crazy owner out there. It'd be pretty out of character, but so was this decision...
Last edited by Tessablue on Sat Mar 31, 2018 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Treve
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:04 pm

Hofburg really made a good account of himself here. It was a very unusual move for Mott, but I looked at him closely just based on that. I don't know if Mott will want to send him to the KY Derby or not though but with 40 points the option is on the table. I feel like it would've been a likelier "yes" if he had won. They might aim for the second leg instead... unless he thinks the horse would be ready, but it's definitely not their style to squeeze a horse in they don't think is 100% (both trainer and owner)

Audible closed well into his dream pace... and certainly proved the wisdom that workouts aren't the be all end all for every horse :lol:
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
barbaro111
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Sat Mar 31, 2018 7:08 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:What were Saez and Albarado thinking? Their speed duel burned out both Strike Power and Promises Fulfilled, costing their colts any chance of winning.
Good win by Audible, who is really quite a strong-looking specimen.
Good question: what were they thinking? not very smart
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