Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) - 03/31/18

Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) - 03/31/18

Postby PJMIII » Tue Mar 27, 2018 4:56 pm

Catholic Boy Strong in Final Florida Derby Breeze

Robert LaPenta and Madaket Stables' Catholic Boy breezed an energetic four furlongs in :48.46 March 25 at Gulfstream Park in preparation for a start in the $1 million Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) March 31.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... rby-breeze

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Re: Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) - 03/31/18

Postby Tessablue » Tue Mar 27, 2018 9:43 pm

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/226689/maiden-winner-hofburg-joins-florida-derby-castI'm as thrilled as I am shocked that Hofburg is running in this race... Mott must think very highly of him to try him here off two starts. Based on his last start he could be any kind, looking forward to seeing what he does here.
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Re: Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) - 03/31/18

Postby Apollo » Tue Mar 27, 2018 11:44 pm

Excellent news on Hofburg. I bet on him last time and I'll be there on Saturday.

But can't imagine he'll be good value here. Opening line was 15/1 in the maiden race and it might be similar in the Florida Derby.
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Re: Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) - 03/31/18

Postby stark » Wed Mar 28, 2018 12:47 pm

1 Strike Power Mark Hennig Luis Saez 4-1

2 Millionaire Runner Jamie Mejia Jose Batista 50-1

3 Tip Sheet Stanley Gold Edgard Zayas 30-1

4 Promises Fulfilled Dale Romans Robby Albarado 3-1

5 Storm Runner Dale Romans Tyler Gaffalione 20-1

6 Catholic Boy Jonathan Thomas Irad Ortiz. Jr. 7-2

7 Hofburg Bill Mott Jose Ortiz 20-1

8 Audible Todd Pletcher John Velazquez 9-5

9 Mississippi Mark Casse Juliem Leparoux 12-1
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) - 03/31/18

Postby stark » Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:36 pm

Under the category of "they knew" or "follow the money".....

WHY wasn't Audible the first or second betting choice in the Holy Bull?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) - 03/31/18

Postby thinair » Wed Mar 28, 2018 7:51 pm

stark wrote:Under the category of "they knew" or "follow the money".....

WHY wasn't Audible the first or second betting choice in the Holy Bull?


The better question is how was he as low as 3:1. He was coming out of a win in an off-the-turf NY Bred race against three rivals.
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Re: Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) - 03/31/18

Postby stark » Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:13 pm

I'm smelling something fishy.......don't think Audible should be the 9/5 favourite in here.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) - 03/31/18

Postby Tessablue » Wed Mar 28, 2018 10:45 pm

The odds I'm most confused by are Strike Power's. He's up against some nice horses in here, he has major issues with his lead changes and and I just don't see any indication that he will improve going 9f. Audible is the kind of horse I want to instinctively go against because of his price and pedigree, but he's also hard to deny; Free Drop Billy isn't proving to be much of a barometer but I think Audible was pretty genuinely good last time out. This looks like a really solid field (hard to dislike Catholic Boy given how highly I think of Flameaway), but in addition to Hofburg (whose pedigree belongs in an art museum somewhere) I sort of like Storm Runner at a price. He quit last time but I can't really blame him because he was rank early and had Bad Rosario on board. If he can get outside- or in front of- Promises Fulfilled, I think he could hang on for a piece. Really looking forward to this race.
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Re: Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) - 03/31/18

Postby Kennedy » Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:29 pm

I do think that Audible will take some beating because he can cruise along pretty well and still finish. Pletcher horses seem to have that ability to sustain a long drive and I think that's the skill that will be necessary to win this race because most like to be forwardly placed and I don't think they want Promises Fulfilled to get another half in :48.

But a horse who has caught my eye is Mississippi. He's small and doesn't look big or strong enough to handle the "classic" types but I think there is a real runner in there. Both of his races at GP this year have been sneaky good. It wouldn't shock me at all to see him a part of the finish here.

I suspect that Strike Power is going to try and go to the front. I thought his connections were overly cautious last time, perhaps thinking that he wasn't genuine at the distance and they let Promises Fulfilled get an easy lead and dominate things. I don't think that happens here and we'll see a more genuine pace I think this will wind up shaking out the less robust. Catholic Boy should get a pace that suits him but I wonder if he'll attack soon enough with so many eager pressers in here. Audible should be able to get first run on him.

Audible
Catholic Boy
Mississippi
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Re: Xpressbet Florida Derby (G1) - 03/31/18

Postby peeptoad » Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:38 pm

Re: the odds- Audible or Catholic Boy will be the PTF imo... Promises may get support at the windows off his last, but I think the Pletcher horse will beat him out as chalk. Catholic Boy is going get support and his price may drop to low for me, but he is my tepid top choice. This race really could go any way; I don;'t care for Audible that much based on his overall CV and his works, but it's a Pletcher horse at GP in the spring so he;'s a must use.
My price horse might be Mississippi... I agree with you top 3, Kennedy, just maybe in a different order.
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