Justify

Horsebagger
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Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:27 pm

I'll give Mike the benefit of the doubt and say he's likely been atop Easy Goer for a work or 2 or 3. He was riding a lot for Shug back then in NY, and given Pat Day was in KY or the Midwest, generally most of that time, I'd say its better than even odds he was a regular workout rider for him.

But the surface probably played to his advantage today, because I see wet track affinity in his pedigree. Don't get me wrong, he's going to be a beast when he gets more experience and is likely the best of this crop already, but I'd liken him to Curlin above anyone else. Easy Goer was a 2yo eclipse winner, and is in the HOF for a reason. He's gotta do more than a gift wrapped nw1x allowance win before we start raining future Hall of Famer accolades on him. Regardless, getting 10 furlongs in less than two months in a 20 horse field is no walk in the park, especially with no 2-yo racing foundation to build upon. One more 9 furlong race and then go another 1/8 further while likely having to endure the most pace pressure he's experienced to date? He's not getting my money that day, if he even makes it there.

I can probably see myself on Travers Day with both hands unloading, though.
BaroqueAgain1
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:15 am

I don't think I've heard Baffert say much about this colt. I do have the feeling that this colt is going to brought along as slowly as he needs. While I'm sure the the owners (so many that I wish they'd just get their horse corporation a single name, or maybe a bunch of initials like a law firm?)...anyway, sure the connections (reallyreally) want a Derby win, but IMHO this colt has "Top Future Stallion Prospect" stamped all over him. So...great care taken with him.
Pedigree: Out of a Ghostzapper mare with a fine female family, he's by the late Scat Daddy. And I might add 'late, great,' as he has produced more good runners than I can name.
Physical: He has the conformation and the ability to run fast. Also, per Mike, he has a great mind, so check off Mental.
Now, he needs a Race Resume. IMO, they won't push him too hard just to make the Derby. There are lots of big stakes races this year that look good on a resume.
Last edited by BaroqueAgain1 on Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
Izvestia
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:22 am

If Bolt was trained by Baffert he’d have more love. Justify looks super talented, but until he races in a big race, I’m waiting on the comparisons.
BaroqueAgain1
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 12:33 am

I am not saying this colt is the second coming of (horse name). It's true we won't know if he's a stakes horse or just the easy winner of two easy races until he actually steps up and wins a stake.
I am feeling anticipation. Excited anticipation.
And Baffert-trained is not my bias. Being by Scat Daddy is. ;) :P
stark
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 9:41 am

101 BSF
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Retrospectiv
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:39 pm

Starine wrote:He sure looks promising but the Easy Goer comparison seems... odd and kind of random.

Rather laughable really.

Easy Goer was a Champion 2 yr old.
Opened his 3 yr old season by winning the Swale stakes in 1:22 1/5, which was the fastest 7 furlongs of the meet.
Turned around and won the Gotham in 1:32 2/5, fastest mile ever run by a 3yr old in NY racing history, setting a stakes and track record.

We'll see if he can Justify the comparison.....
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Ballerina
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:53 pm

I don't think anyone is comparing this horse against any other horse's race record - it's more on appearance and what they feel the horse may become.
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Retrospectiv
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:40 pm


And Day sat like a statue.....

He got a lot of credit for his ability over a mile and a half, but not NEAR enough credit, IMO, for his actual speed.

A horse who could run 7 furlongs, or a mile like he could was no distance plodder....


This is one of my favorite performances. Day had him locked up and in a mess the whole race. Barges through at the top of the stretch and just powers away. He ran that last furlong in 11 seconds. Watch that gallop out at 2:10......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-r65wOLa0Q
"It's been my policy to view the Internet not as an 'information highway', but as an electronic asylum filled with babbling loonies."
Izvestia
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Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:42 am

Sorry Justify fans... he’s not Easy Goer. He was awesome.
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Curtis
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Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:07 pm

Izvestia wrote:Sorry Justify fans... he’s not Easy Goer. He was awesome.
And Easy Goer wasn’t Sunday Silence or Affirmed or any other horse. Patience is a virtue—both ways—after two starts, who knows what Justify is?
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Squeaky
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Tue Mar 13, 2018 4:40 pm

Haskin has him at number 7 in this week’s Derby Dozen.
sweettalk
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Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:34 am

Curtis wrote:
Izvestia wrote:Sorry Justify fans... he’s not Easy Goer. He was awesome.
And Easy Goer wasn’t Sunday Silence or Affirmed or any other horse. Patience is a virtue—both ways—after two starts, who knows what Justify is?
gonna go on a limb here and say he's a horse, prooooobably a thoroughbred
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Curtis
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Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:11 pm

sweettalk wrote: gonna go on a limb here and say he's a horse, prooooobably a thoroughbred
During my annual pilgrimidge to Spring Training, my beloved Dodgers we’re off yesterday. I had choices, I could have found another game—perhaps sought out the Giants and lustily booed their every move or perhaps seek out my old high school teammate, Rick Renteria, who is now in the employ as manager of the White Sox. Instead I went to Turf Paradise. There I saw horses who are thoroughbreds. An old friend Minister Vivendi who traces back to a terrific mare—Modus Vivendi, the Enola Gray of her day—blew away a field of cheap platers. The seventh race could have been named The War Horse as the spry 9yo Gins and Giggles outfinished the 11yo Toccet’s Charm. Those all were thoroughbred horses. And there are thoroughbreds and there are thoroughbreds. While presumably the former, Justify could very well be the latter.
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Diver52
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Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:11 am

Modus Vivendi! thanks, Curtis, for the memory. What a fast filly she was--and what a way to live! 8-)

As for Justify--who knows? But dissing him compared to Easy Goer at his best is pretty perverse. As is comparing him to Easy Goer at the latter's best.

Early days.
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
sweettalk
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Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:31 am

toccet's charm is a name i haven't heard in a while, too. glad to hear he's still competitive.
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Ballerina
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Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:11 pm

Justify seems to be one of those horses. Brilliantly bred, with one of the best trainers, and one of the best pilots. I dunno - it's all talk right now, but there are times when a horse just hits you in the knowing gut. This is one of those times with me much the same as Medaglia d'Oro, Curlin, Wise Dan, and Gun Runner did when they first started out. It's not hype necessarily - it's a feeling
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Squeaky
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Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:20 pm

Agree with Bal. After he won his allowance he stood on the track while Mike looked skyward and to me had that “ look of eagles”. I hope we are right! Agree, there is a long way to go with much stronger competition and longer distances.
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Squeaky
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Sun Mar 18, 2018 12:19 pm

XB TV had a nice video of Justify galloping on March 17 at SA. He moves with so much grace and power- can barely see the lead changes they are so smooth.
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Squeaky
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Tue Mar 20, 2018 2:43 pm

Bullet work March 20 4 fur 46.40 1/103
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