Justify

Re: Justify

Postby katmandu » Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:47 pm

stark wrote:Mike Smith happy to have his 9th horse of a lifetime.


Well, all jockeys need 9 lives, at least. . . ;)
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Re: Justify

Postby Tessablue » Sun Mar 11, 2018 8:48 pm

Horsebagger wrote:Does he want 10 furlongs? He didn't gallop out like he's dying for it. It may turn out that he very much may (although I'm not convinced yet), so let's take it easy with the Easy Goer comparisons for now, who relished 12 furlongs.

Get ready for "but he could have won by ten more lengths if he'd been asked!"

I agree, although it's possible the pace and surface had something to do with it. His pedigree doesn't scream 10f to me either, though it's ambiguous enough that people can probably see whatever they want in it. The Easy Goer comparison cracks me up a little because Smith never rode Easy Goer and, well... it's maybe not the most fortuitous comparison if your goal is to win the Derby.

But hey, at least he's got one more race to help us decide whether he's the second coming of Pharoah or The Factor.
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Re: Justify

Postby Ballerina » Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:11 pm

Ballerina wrote:Despite what anyone else thinks, he still reminds me of Dortmund - chestnut, chrome, big. At least I didn't say the "S" word. :-)


On 2nd thought (thinking about it more), he puts me in mind of Curlin - only bigger - especially that tremendous rear machine. He is such an imposing looking animal. I hope he's on a path to greatness. It's always a joy to have something to look forward to.
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Re: Justify

Postby Spahny » Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:43 pm

Tessablue wrote:
Horsebagger wrote:Does he want 10 furlongs? He didn't gallop out like he's dying for it. It may turn out that he very much may (although I'm not convinced yet), so let's take it easy with the Easy Goer comparisons for now, who relished 12 furlongs.

Get ready for "but he could have won by ten more lengths if he'd been asked!"

I agree, although it's possible the pace and surface had something to do with it. His pedigree doesn't scream 10f to me either, though it's ambiguous enough that people can probably see whatever they want in it. The Easy Goer comparison cracks me up a little because Smith never rode Easy Goer and, well... it's maybe not the most fortuitous comparison if your goal is to win the Derby.

But hey, at least he's got one more race to help us decide whether he's the second coming of Pharoah or The Factor.


It's that time of year. Justify is an exciting prospect but he hasn't been anywhere near a good horse yet. I do think that Baffert believes he is his bast 3yo though. BB's rhetoric reminds me of the Dortmund and Pharoah year when he clearly preferred AP even though he had a different and undefeated 3yo in the barn.

I hope Justify does line up against Bolt d'Oro in the SA Derby but it's not a sure thing. Bolt is the leader on the points board but I also think he is the best 3yo in the country. He is a specimen every bit as impressive as Justify. He is going to move forward a mile in his next start too. He is one serious and talented colt. I think Baffert understands that. That makes me think he will avoid Bolt and send Justify to Oaklawn for his first stakes try, assuming he thinks Justify is his best Derby prospect... which is what I think he thinks.

It's all just kind of fun stuff.
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Re: Justify

Postby stark » Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:44 pm

Simon Bray
‏@SimonTVG

Curlin
2/3/07. 1st. MSW
3/17/07. 1st. Rebel Stk
4/14/07. 1st. Ark Derby
5/5/18. 3rd. KY Derby

Justify
2/18/18. 1st. MSW
3/11/18. 1st. NWx1
4/18. ??
5/5/18. ?? KYDerby
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Justify

Postby tcw » Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:44 pm

Considering he ran the opening half-mile in just a tick or two over 45 flat and 6f in 109 and 3, and also considering the surface, it's not surprising that he was geared down through the stretch and after the wire. Pedigree-wise it appears to be somewhat of a mixed bag, but there are a few BC Classic winners on his dam's side and as mentioned earlier, the Rasumussen Factor is there with Narrate. Only time will tell, but considering what we know at this point, I'd lean toward him being able to stretch out, and a stiff 9f race which he's likely to get next out should really tell the story.
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Re: Justify

Postby Tessablue » Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:54 pm

Spahny wrote:It's that time of year. Justify is an exciting prospect but he hasn't been anywhere near a good horse yet. I do think that Baffert believes he is his bast 3yo though. BB's rhetoric reminds me of the Dortmund and Pharoah year when he clearly preferred AP even though he had a different and undefeated 3yo in the barn.

I hope Justify does line up against Bolt d'Oro in the SA Derby but it's not a sure thing. Bolt is the leader on the points board but I also think he is the best 3yo in the country. He is a specimen every bit as impressive as Justify. He is going to move forward a mile in his next start too. He is one serious and talented colt. I think Baffert understands that. That makes me think he will avoid Bolt and send Justify to Oaklawn for his first stakes try, assuming he thinks Justify is his best Derby prospect... which is what I think he thinks.

It's all just kind of fun stuff.

An excellent point- Baffert knows what he has and his horses don't usually surprise people in the Derby. If he talks up a favorite they tend to run well, if he's quiet they run nowhere. I doubted the Pharoah hype and he proved me very wrong, so I'm looking forward to wherever he runs next. If it's the AK Derby I just hope someone else shows up for it, because we've had a lot of AK Derby blowouts and they are pretty tough to evaluate.

For what it's worth, Justify closed at 6-1 in the latest future pool with Bolt d'Oro at 7-1... and the betting closed only a couple of hours after Justify ran. I'm still getting a handle on this year's 3yos but I'm fairly confused by the (relative) lack of hype around Bolt d'Oro, who is already a perfect Derby horse and only has to maintain his 2yo form to win the race. I wonder what the rhetoric around these two horses would be like if we swapped their connections?

But either way, it's nice to have these sorts of conversations this early. There are some very interesting 3yo colts in this crop.
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Re: Justify

Postby tcw » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:24 pm

Unless it turns out to be a sub-par Derby crop, Bolt will likely have to do a bit more than just maintain his form from last year. Only time will tell after the usual defections, etc., but so far this crop looks fairly promising.
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Re: Justify

Postby Starine » Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:43 pm

He sure looks promising but the Easy Goer comparison seems... odd and kind of random.
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Re: Justify

Postby Tessablue » Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:12 pm

tcw wrote:Unless it turns out to be a sub-par Derby crop, Bolt will likely have to do a bit more than just maintain his form from last year. Only time will tell after the usual defections, etc., but so far this crop looks fairly promising.

It does, but I'm using the FrontRunner as a baseline here because it was at two turns and his Juvenile trip was absurd. I think that race puts him squarely in the "fast enough" category at face value, and in the "imposing favorite" category if you believe it was unjustly downgraded on figures, which I still do (totally understand if others disagree; it was a weird situation). We'll see what the final round of preps brings us, but he started the year as the classiest horse in his crop and given his performance yesterday he clearly hasn't regressed yet. Street Sense, American Pharoah and (to a much lesser extent) Nyquist are examples of recent Derby winners who came into their 3yo season with a speed/class edge that they either maintained or slightly improved upon en route to their Derby victories, and I can definitely envision him joining them.

But I also have no idea what to expect from his trainer or his next race, and there are plenty of 3yos who could throw down a monster final prep this year. Really looking forward to it.
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