Justify

User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4285
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:21 pm

katmandu wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 11:47 am
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 1:16 am
but retiring after only six races? That does not add to his value.
vs. undefeated?
Maclean's Music also retired undefeated lol. So did Mastery. So if we are going by 'undefeated' what you're saying is Justify is only two races better than Mastery.
The lower the number of starts, the less meaningful/relevant the word 'undefeated' is. It looks good on an advertisement or stallion page, I suppose, especially if you spin it like 'Only Triple Crown winner to retire undefeated' I don't think being undefeated actually adds to his value. Especially when one could also easily point out the dubious honour of being the only Triple Crown winner to retire with less than 10 starts...

Plus, to put this in perspective there are horses who aren't undefeated but have win streaks in excess (sometimes well in excess) of 6 races. In the last few years alone you've got American Pharoah, Songbird, Beholder, Winx, Tepin... California Chrome had TWO six-race win streaks. Gun Runner had a 5 race win streak so not quite 6 but they all came in G1s, so he's got more G1s than our latest TC winner. Caravaggio was undefeated in his first 6 starts. Heck even Dortmund was undefeated in his first 6 starts.

The most valuable thing about Justify is that he is a Classic-winning, Dirt-running son of the late super sire Scat Daddy, and who won the Triple Crown. That he won another G1 besides the TC also adds to that. That he is undefeated doesn't add anything in this case. It'd be far more meaningful if he'd ran out the rest of the year and remained undefeated. Or if he had come into the TC with more prior starts.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
katmandu
Posts: 979
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:16 am

Sat Aug 11, 2018 4:19 pm

Treve wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:21 pm
The most valuable thing about Justify is that he is a Classic-winning, Dirt-running son of the late super sire Scat Daddy, and who won the Triple Crown. That he won another G1 besides the TC also adds to that. That he is undefeated doesn't add anything in this case. It'd be far more meaningful if he'd ran out the rest of the year and remained undefeated. Or if he had come into the TC with more prior starts.
That was the point - and the gamble. Obviously he brings more to the table than Mastery, MM, etc. (or at least until he has to stand on his production record along with everyone else).

"vs. undefeated" referred to the remainder of his (possible) 3 year old campaign and whether or not he would go out on a winning note. . . (which I don't think he would have).
User avatar
Charlie
Posts: 555
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 10:34 pm

Sat Aug 11, 2018 9:08 pm

I do agree with what everyone has said about my post, money is definitely the leading factor but I still wonder if he would have come out the Belmont in better shape if he had a better foundation.

Still would have been retired probably.
stark
Posts: 4022
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Sun Aug 12, 2018 11:53 am

From this point forward all that really matters is the quality of his sperm and who the owners/trainers are that get his offspring to race.

As for that other stuff, it's kind like the discussion they're having on another thread..... Gone With The Wind was better than Godfather and Star Wars deserves to be on the list, simply amazing.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
User avatar
Honor Code
Posts: 43
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2014 12:16 am

Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:01 pm

Treve wrote:
Sat Aug 11, 2018 3:21 pm
The most valuable thing about Justify is that he is a Classic-winning, Dirt-running son of the late super sire Scat Daddy, and who won the Triple Crown. That he won another G1 besides the TC also adds to that. That he is undefeated doesn't add anything in this case. It'd be far more meaningful if he'd ran out the rest of the year and remained undefeated. Or if he had come into the TC with more prior starts.
As Mylute said previously, it's Winstar's business model. Their stallion operation really milks every prospect as much as possible. Looking at their roster now, there's only around ~7 stallions that have hung around for longer than 3 crops. Of those few, a couple of them are probably because no one will buy them off Winstar for what they want(Gemologist, maybe Super Saver). So out of a ~20 stallion line up, more than half are new/unproven sires. Heck, they sold off Take Charge Indy before his first crop hit the races.

Unfortunately, the Scat Daddy factor is probably what they're counting on to draw breeders over the likes of American Pharaoh etc. Their business model isn't breeding but making and subsequently milking each potential stallion as fast as possible. As long as there's a tag line ("Son of Scat Daddy! Undefeated Triple Crown Winner!" vs. "Best Bred son!/Most Accomplished Son of _____") I doubt Winstar cares about race record or longevity.

Right at this moment, if I wanted to breed to a son of Scat Daddy I'd much rather breed to Caravaggio, or maybe even Mendelssohn when he retires.

Unrelated subject.....but I'm surprised Hoppertunity has no stallion agreement already. He's won multiple G1s, so even if his pedigree is weak it should still be more than enough to at least secure a good regional place at stud.....
User avatar
Miss Woodford
Posts: 1011
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:34 pm

Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:18 pm

Honor Code wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:01 pm
Unrelated subject.....but I'm surprised Hoppertunity has no stallion agreement already. He's won multiple G1s, so even if his pedigree is weak it should still be more than enough to at least secure a good regional place at stud.....
Hoppertunity may actually be making more money as a racehorse than he would as a stallion. His fee would likely be around $5k to start and as a regional stallion he'd get at most 50-70 mares, so $250-350k assuming they all paid full price. He's already earned $365k this year.
User avatar
Mylute
Posts: 833
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:20 pm
Location: Alabama

Mon Aug 13, 2018 3:22 pm

Miss Woodford wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 9:18 pm
Honor Code wrote:
Sun Aug 12, 2018 1:01 pm
Unrelated subject.....but I'm surprised Hoppertunity has no stallion agreement already. He's won multiple G1s, so even if his pedigree is weak it should still be more than enough to at least secure a good regional place at stud.....
Hoppertunity may actually be making more money as a racehorse than he would as a stallion. His fee would likely be around $5k to start and as a regional stallion he'd get at most 50-70 mares, so $250-350k assuming they all paid full price. He's already earned $365k this year.
Hoppertuniy Appears on Turf
https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... orkout_123

TL;DR In the article Baffert says he just wanted to try him on turf, since there are more races at Hopper's favorite distances on turf (or at least more profitable ones). They also say in the article they will wait until the fall to see if they want to try another year or try to secure a stud deal. He may be making more now but he can't go on forever unfortunately.

Honestly I hope Calumet picks him up. Kelly obviously is doing his own thing (which I like and admire, we don't need another WinStar) and I can guarantee that more people will be interested in sending mares to Hoppertunity than they will Snapy Halo, even in Kentucky. Also, fun fact, Davona Dale is Hopper's second dam, so it "makes sense" in a way, or historically. People say Hopper won't be attractive commercially because he's not a precocious unsound juvenile (lol) but horses with worse records have found farms to stand at.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4285
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:18 pm

I definitely think Hoppertunity won't be a commercial sire but I doubt he'd be standing for 5k in Texas, he's a mulitple graded stakes winning horse (including two G1s one at 9f and one at 10), he actually has a pretty interesting and solid pedigree, even if it's not a fashionable one. I would be surprised if none of the older farms in Kentucky would pass on him. Calumet would be a good fit. I think even Airdrie could be a good fit too they don't seem to be driven by the philosophy of offering quality bloodlines but with maybe modest results on the track at a reasonable price to make them accessible to breeders of a range of wallet sizes. They don't stand any stallion for over 25k (although Mark Valeski's fee is private). Claiborne could be interested too I think.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
User avatar
Mylute
Posts: 833
Joined: Fri Aug 10, 2018 11:20 pm
Location: Alabama

Mon Aug 13, 2018 9:22 pm

Treve wrote:
Mon Aug 13, 2018 6:18 pm
I definitely think Hoppertunity won't be a commercial sire but I doubt he'd be standing for 5k in Texas, he's a mulitple graded stakes winning horse (including two G1s one at 9f and one at 10), he actually has a pretty interesting and solid pedigree, even if it's not a fashionable one. I would be surprised if none of the older farms in Kentucky would pass on him. Calumet would be a good fit. I think even Airdrie could be a good fit too they don't seem to be driven by the philosophy of offering quality bloodlines but with maybe modest results on the track at a reasonable price to make them accessible to breeders of a range of wallet sizes. They don't stand any stallion for over 25k (although Mark Valeski's fee is private). Claiborne could be interested too I think.
(Funny to be discussing Hopper on Justify's thread, but I digress lol).

I think people see that his sire is Any Given Saturday and immediately think "eww bad pedigree", despite solid horses from modest families finding success on the track and in the shed often historically (Seattle Slew). I don't think his pedigree is even that "weak" or whatever, though his dam side is the strongest I would say. He's also a half-brother to a Gr.I winner, and the dam Refugee herself is graded placed. Unaccounted For sired Gr.I winners in America and Turkey (where he was a champion sire). As for Any Given Saturday himself, he also sired a Breeders' Cup winner in Mongolian Saturday. You can also find Numbered Account in the pedigree through Unaccounted For.

Hmm...wonder if Taylor Made would be interested since they've lost Northern Afleet (who had a habit of siring solid distance horses, or horses of any capability really) and the Taylors love Numbered Account.
"You're only given a little spark of madness. You mustn't lose it."
~ Robin Williams 1951 - 2̶0̶1̶4̶ ∞
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4285
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Mon Aug 13, 2018 11:42 pm

You said what I was too lazy to type about Any Given Saturday... it's really why I feel like although his pedigree is not fashionable or commercial, it's not weak by any means in my estimation. Definitely agree the dam side is stronger but even AGS himself is interesting - he can sire a turf sprint champ and a graded stakes winning dirt 'stayer'. AGS being a son of Distorted Humour out of an A.P. Indy daughter I think offers solid bloodlines. The aforementioned daughter's damsire is also Spectacular Bid.

Back on his dam side I love that his connection to Numbered Account is through Private Account since that also makes him a descendant of Damascus. And of course Davona Dale being his second dam links him back to names like Turn To and Tim Tam.
And of course being inbred 4x3 to Danzig and 4x4x3 to Northern Dancer I think the Turf experiment isn't a bad idea and I think Hoppertunity could end up being a useful sire on both surfaces.
(And yes we went way off topic.. maybe I should go check if there's a thread for Hopper?)
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
User avatar
Big Ten
Posts: 664
Joined: Thu Dec 19, 2013 7:35 am

Tue Aug 14, 2018 8:22 pm

Already said my happy retirement comments on Twitter.

Justify could be considered the worst TC winner and nothing changes on how I feel about him. Like MoviePass, the ride was fun while it lasted...
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
Rick1323
Posts: 828
Joined: Tue Sep 24, 2013 8:00 pm

Fri Aug 17, 2018 4:03 pm

It will be interesting to see how easily he fills his book. Fact is that in recent history, a horse of his caliber would be lucky to win one TC race, much less sweep them all. But breeders do rush to the latest and greatest, still it will be interesting.......
Everyone come home sound.....
Post Reply