Justify

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Ballerina
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Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:00 pm

Maybe he'll run faster if he's not sporting a loose shoe.
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Big Ten
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Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:32 pm

Watching Justify win the SA Derby reminded me a little of ol' "Rubberneck", Free House (RIP). Trudy McCaffrey (RIP) used to say Freebie didn't know how to run straight until he was 5. Great woman and I miss that horse alot.

Was a huge fan of both Silver Charm and Free House. The buddy rivalry. Almost like they knew each other. I still have a photo of that 1998 Pacific Classic where Free House kept looking at the crowd before McCarron straightened him out. Chris signed it for me when he used to do those Seabiscuit tours at Santa Anita during the mid-00's.

That's why Justify is so scary to bet against and I personally don't like the Derby chalk in most years. He hasn't figured it out yet. Imagine if he does? He was just looking around at the umbrellas. Didn't even run straight. Looked like BDO was going to catch him and what did Justify do? He extended the margin of victory.

It's Justify vs Mendelssohn for me. I'm 97% on Team Baffert right now. Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore have never won the Kentucky Derby. Mendelssohn is a May foal while Justify is March. Justify has never tasted defeat yet while Mendelssohn has three times already. And finally my California bias. My California love is strong.

Only way I might bet against Justify? If he draws the #1, poor works, it's sloppy to a point that Thunder Snow last year didn't want to run on it, and Justify's odds are like 2-1 while Mendelssohn is at 8-1. I know Justify is good but he's not 4x the likelier Ky Derby winner over Mendelssohn.

Can't wait for TBC's Derby Contest. Did pretty good the last two years. Only got the final time wrong last year. Will post my picks an hour before Derby post time. Group A, Justify over Mendelssohn for me about 97%. But beware of Mendelssohn. It's like having a California Chrome and American Pharoah in the same Derby field.

Santa Anita Derby - 107 BSF
UAE Derby - 106 BSF

Near equals in raw talent.

Birthdays
March 28 - Justify
March 29 - Man o' War
March 30 - Secretariat

He's the one. Might be my favorite Ky Derby winner ever if he wins on May 5th surpassing California Chrome, American Pharoah, Barbaro, and Silver Charm.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Treve
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Mon Apr 09, 2018 7:41 pm

Justify's chances would actually magnify if the track is sloppy. Bob said he had hoped it would rain for the SA Derby, and his last race out skipping over the slop was visually impressive. I think he likes it.

Although it'd be a shame if that pretty blaze of his was brown by the time he got to the finish line :lol:
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Ridan_Remembered
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Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:10 pm

Big Ten wrote:I'm 97% on Team Baffert right now.
Justify is a lovely colt with seemingly a world of potential, but Baffert is such a huge turn off for me that I just can't get on the Justify bandwagon. I have never like Baffert, going all the way back to his earliest days on the Southern California thoroughbred circuit so it's hard for me to root for any of the horses he trains.
Horsebagger
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Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:28 pm

So, not only is Justify Easy Goer, but now Mendelssohn is Dubai Millennium.

Okay.

And I thought the end was near because the personal attorney of the President of the United States was just raided by the friggin FBI. How often does that happen?
I'd wager its still more often than the number of times these comparisons have/will been/be made.

So, no.
tcw
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Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:48 pm

Treve wrote:Justify's chances would actually magnify if the track is sloppy. Bob said he had hoped it would rain for the SA Derby, and his last race out skipping over the slop was visually impressive. I think he likes it.

Although it'd be a shame if that pretty blaze of his was brown by the time he got to the finish line :lol:
The reason Bob was hoping for some rain was due to how deep/tiring he felt the surface was, preferring that it would tighten-up a bit.
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Treve
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Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:30 am

tcw wrote:
Treve wrote:Justify's chances would actually magnify if the track is sloppy. Bob said he had hoped it would rain for the SA Derby, and his last race out skipping over the slop was visually impressive. I think he likes it.

Although it'd be a shame if that pretty blaze of his was brown by the time he got to the finish line :lol:
The reason Bob was hoping for some rain was due to how deep/tiring he felt the surface was, preferring that it would tighten-up a bit.
I am aware, but two statements are not mutually exclusive.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Big Ten
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:49 pm

2014 - California Chrome
2015 - American Pharoah
2016 - Nyquist
2017 - Always Dreaming

You know in the last four runnings, I was actually skeptical against Chrome and AP. In '15, I wanted Dortmund. Only in the last two runnings when I finally decided not to "act like the contrarian" and bet on the favorite.

The irony is CC and AP will be first-ballot HoFers. The ones I was confident more in Nyquist and AD never won again after their Ky Derby win. My confidence level on Justify is sky high when I was initially skeptical of him days before the SA Derby.

That's why I'm not betting the Preakness. Confidence level is high before the Derby and he wins. But after you get him at 2-1 or 3-1, he's now 3-5 and we expect him to win another G1 race two weeks later when starts are now far more spread apart.

For me, it's a Kentucky Derby between Justify and Mendelssohn. Forget the rest. If both run their races, everyone else is running for 3rd. Sometimes both top picks don't run 1-2. Lookin At Lee ran 2nd last year at 30-1. If Justify goes off as odds-on favorite and be the first since The Bid, I'll just watch.

When Bolt ran up to him, I initially thought I messed up because I preferred BDO more than Justify. I also wasn't sure how I would feel if Justify won the SA Derby knowing he will still be overbet and be quite inexperienced heading in the Ky Derby. Only had six opponents and had a perfect trip.

It's like what Ballerina has said in the previous posts in this thread that I totally agree with. There's just something about this horse. It's that intuition we gain watching horse racing for decades. It's in our hearts. We know it. We feel it. Those same feelings we had for horses like Curlin, California Chrome, American Pharoah, etc.

Justify won the SA Derby while Mike Smith lost control of the bit and Justify got a little distracted. That's insane. BDO is not some cheap claimer. BDO would be a favorite in most other Derby years including last year. Usually Derby preps, I would forget about the race. Not this recent SA Derby. I'm still buzzing about the horse 4 days later.

I used to remember the late, great Bob Ross would say, "There are no mistakes. Only happy accidents." I want to call the horse "Baby Huey", the nickname Seattle Slew got as a youngster. Justify soundly beaten a multiple G1 winner without even trying that hard and was kinda goofing off out there.

Image
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Ballerina
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:56 pm

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Treve
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Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:09 pm

Justify tied for 13th on the Longines World's best racehorse rankings with a rating of 120 for his win in the SA Derby
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... d-rankings
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Ballerina
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 11:27 am

On Steve Haskin's FB page this morning.

"If you missed last night's Switching Leads, catch it on the archive and listen to breeder John Gunther talk about Justify and Vino Rosso as babies and how 5 vets turned Justify down at the sale."
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Ballerina
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:05 pm

Kennedy
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:26 pm

Here is a quote from that article
Derby entrants that rated on the lead — especially an easy lead — in their final prep have met with virtually no success on racing’s biggest stage.

Horses that led at each of the first two calls of their final prep, but lost ground (lengths) between those calls, are zip-for-30 in the Race for the Roses
I find this stat to be a hard one to verify. Firstly because in his article he used the 2nd and 3rd calls to compare ground loss instead of the 1st and 2nd and also because it's based on the premise that a narrowing lead between calls means that a horse is being "rated". Can't it also mean that someone behind you has decided to make a move?

Feels like an anomaly. It doesn't even make intuitive sense that rating in a prep is a bad thing. Rating is generally a positive tool in the belt.
stark
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 1:27 pm

Ballerina wrote:Oh ye of little faith

https://www.usracing.com/news/analysis/ ... ucky-derby
Not sure what Derek Simon's field of expertise is, but if an article like this really needed to be written why not tell the truth and list all 37 reasons, errr at least that's how many I'm up to in the past 5 minutes. Starting with a bad post position draw, bumped/herded out of the gate, saddle slipped, lost stirrups, checked steadied while wide, dropped whip, suicide pace duel..........
there was a better horse on any given day who ran the race of his life, it could happen.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 3:33 pm

stark wrote:
Not sure what Derek Simon's field of expertise is, but if an article like this really needed to be written why not tell the truth and list all 37 reasons, errr at least that's how many I'm up to in the past 5 minutes. Starting with a bad post position draw, bumped/herded out of the gate, saddle slipped, lost stirrups, checked steadied while wide, dropped whip, suicide pace duel..........
there was a better horse on any given day who ran the race of his life, it could happen.
Ohhh, and since it is the Derby he's talking about I forgot one of the more obvious reasons any horse could lose......jock misjudged the finish line! (if Shoemaker could do it, anybody can)
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Curtis
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:31 pm

stark wrote:
stark wrote:
Not sure what Derek Simon's field of expertise is, but if an article like this really needed to be written why not tell the truth and list all 37 reasons, errr at least that's how many I'm up to in the past 5 minutes. Starting with a bad post position draw, bumped/herded out of the gate, saddle slipped, lost stirrups, checked steadied while wide, dropped whip, suicide pace duel..........
there was a better horse on any given day who ran the race of his life, it could happen.
Ohhh, and since it is the Derby he's talking about I forgot one of the more obvious reasons any horse could lose......jock misjudged the finish line! (if Shoemaker could do it, anybody can)
Given the fact that early on in the article he refers to Justify as a chestnut “cold”, I’m not sure how much of the rest of it needs to be taken into account.

I remember in 1981, I was at the Derby sitting between the 1/16th pole and the wire. At the 1/16th pole, Sandy Hawley stood straight up in the stirrups on a Quack colt named Partez. It didn’t cost him the win as Pleasant Colony would have won anyway, but it probably kept Partez from holding off Woodchopper for second. If memory serves, Partez was a Lukas trainee. I’m sure Sandy got an earful from the Coach when he came back to unsaddle. DWL was wound a little tighter back in the day, not that he’s any too loose now.
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Ballerina
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:36 pm

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Big Ten
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:01 pm

I still do think Justify is a little overhyped for what he has done so far. That doesn't mean I don't think he's going to win. I believe he will and Baffert's gets his 5th Derby trophy. I have money on the 76ers, Thunder, and Cavaliers in my NBA Futures. I have never been to any of those cities. I don't bet according to region. I bet now according to talent.

My previous mistakes with the Kentucky Derby was I based my picks according to odds which made me overthink my bets. That's why I watched a few Derby favorites beat me repeatedly. That's why even if I will hate playing the chalk, better to win something than lose everything trying to chase a better payout.

I think Justify can be a little overhyped and will be overbet again next month. That's not a bad thing. Betting public has been right the last five runnings. I'm betting him according to talent and some great intuition. Kentucky Derby might be the only race you can get Justify above double or nothing, even-money.

I read a ton of negative comments on BloodHorse about all these 3YOs including how some aren't hopping on the Justify hype train. Most rarely get it right being the contrarians. That's good. I don't necessarily want his odds to be that low and I much prefer uncertainty over predictability. More fun that way. They all have question marks.

103 - Bolt d'Oro (FrontRunner)
100 - Good Magic (BC Juvenile)
101 - Bolt d'Oro (San Felipe)
106 - Mendelssohn (UAE Derby)
107 - Justify (SA Derby)

http://www.drf.com/road-kentucky-derby

^ I'm not a Beyer guy but checking on that link, I didn't realize Bolt d'Oro won two stakes races with 100+ BSF. Shows you the quality of the horse but even more so with Justify who slowed down a little before drawing off by 3+ lengths in a matter of 2-3 strides. No Pletcher 3YO has hit 100 BSF yet.

I could do a Top 5 Derby list, but I have no plans betting the exotics this time. I could be all over the place like last year with Always Dreaming, Irish War Cry, and many more. Going with my "one horse, one win bet" mantra this time. It looks extremely obvious to me who will win.

I want Magnum Moon to win the Arkansas Derby. Not Solomini or Quip. I want to see another undefeated 3YO who never raced at 2 try to break the Apollo curse. I want as much talented horses in the Kentucky Derby. I want Pletcher to be loaded and his horses betted on. Then I want to see Justify beat them all in three weeks.

2012 - I'll Have Another
2013 - Orb
2014 - California Chrome
2015 - American Pharoah
2016 - Nyquist
2017 - Always Dreaming
2018 - Justify?

For anyone who was kind of a contrarian in 2014 and 2015 when CC and AP won them or even the last two runnings and didn't like Nyquist and AD that much, time NOT to act cute and make that easy money with Justify. Possible six straight favorites winning the Derby and 5 out of 7 from California.

Unless Magnum Moon sets a track record or earns a 108 BSF in the Arkansas Derby today, it's Justify or bust for me. Only horse I fear is Mend and his competition is questionable. I just don't see Pletcher winning back-to-back Derbies with prep winners in the sub-100 BSF group vs a horse who has over 100+ BSF in all three starts of his career and soundly beat one who earned a 103 as a 2YO.
Rock Hard Ten. Free House. Soul Of The Matter. Lit de Justice. Zenyatta. Justify. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. Silver Charm.
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Squeaky
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Sun Apr 15, 2018 8:37 pm

[flash=][/flash]
Ballerina wrote:On Steve Haskin's FB page this morning.

"If you missed last night's Switching Leads, catch it on the archive and listen to breeder John Gunther talk about Justify and Vino Rosso as babies and how 5 vets turned Justify down at the sale."
I just listened to this and was intrigued when John Gunther spoke about how they had a yearling half-brother to Justify that they felt was even bigger and more impressive looking than Justify. He didn’t mention who the mare was bred to in 2016- does any one know? Said they would not be selling him.
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Squeaky
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Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:43 pm

Thanks to Mariasmon... the sire was Will Take Charge. I bet that colt is a stunner. One to keep an eye on. I wonder when he will be named?
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