Justify

Re: Justify

Postby Ballerina » Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:00 pm

Maybe he'll run faster if he's not sporting a loose shoe.
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Re: Justify

Postby Big Ten » Mon Apr 09, 2018 6:32 pm

Watching Justify win the SA Derby reminded me a little of ol' "Rubberneck", Free House (RIP). Trudy McCaffrey (RIP) used to say Freebie didn't know how to run straight until he was 5. Great woman and I miss that horse alot.

Was a huge fan of both Silver Charm and Free House. The buddy rivalry. Almost like they knew each other. I still have a photo of that 1998 Pacific Classic where Free House kept looking at the crowd before McCarron straightened him out. Chris signed it for me when he used to do those Seabiscuit tours at Santa Anita during the mid-00's.

That's why Justify is so scary to bet against and I personally don't like the Derby chalk in most years. He hasn't figured it out yet. Imagine if he does? He was just looking around at the umbrellas. Didn't even run straight. Looked like BDO was going to catch him and what did Justify do? He extended the margin of victory.

It's Justify vs Mendelssohn for me. I'm 97% on Team Baffert right now. Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore have never won the Kentucky Derby. Mendelssohn is a May foal while Justify is March. Justify has never tasted defeat yet while Mendelssohn has three times already. And finally my California bias. My California love is strong.

Only way I might bet against Justify? If he draws the #1, poor works, it's sloppy to a point that Thunder Snow last year didn't want to run on it, and Justify's odds are like 2-1 while Mendelssohn is at 8-1. I know Justify is good but he's not 4x the likelier Ky Derby winner over Mendelssohn.

Can't wait for TBC's Derby Contest. Did pretty good the last two years. Only got the final time wrong last year. Will post my picks an hour before Derby post time. Group A, Justify over Mendelssohn for me about 97%. But beware of Mendelssohn. It's like having a California Chrome and American Pharoah in the same Derby field.

Santa Anita Derby - 107 BSF
UAE Derby - 106 BSF

Near equals in raw talent.

Birthdays
March 28 - Justify
March 29 - Man o' War
March 30 - Secretariat

He's the one. Might be my favorite Ky Derby winner ever if he wins on May 5th surpassing California Chrome, American Pharoah, Barbaro, and Silver Charm.
Rock Hard Ten. Zenyatta. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. California Chrome. American Pharoah. Seattle Slew. Secretariat. Affirmed.
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Re: Justify

Postby Treve » Mon Apr 09, 2018 7:41 pm

Justify's chances would actually magnify if the track is sloppy. Bob said he had hoped it would rain for the SA Derby, and his last race out skipping over the slop was visually impressive. I think he likes it.

Although it'd be a shame if that pretty blaze of his was brown by the time he got to the finish line :lol:
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Re: Justify

Postby Ridan_Remembered » Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:10 pm

Big Ten wrote:I'm 97% on Team Baffert right now.


Justify is a lovely colt with seemingly a world of potential, but Baffert is such a huge turn off for me that I just can't get on the Justify bandwagon. I have never like Baffert, going all the way back to his earliest days on the Southern California thoroughbred circuit so it's hard for me to root for any of the horses he trains.
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Re: Justify

Postby Horsebagger » Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:28 pm

So, not only is Justify Easy Goer, but now Mendelssohn is Dubai Millennium.

Okay.

And I thought the end was near because the personal attorney of the President of the United States was just raided by the friggin FBI. How often does that happen?
I'd wager its still more often than the number of times these comparisons have/will been/be made.

So, no.
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Re: Justify

Postby tcw » Mon Apr 09, 2018 10:48 pm

Treve wrote:Justify's chances would actually magnify if the track is sloppy. Bob said he had hoped it would rain for the SA Derby, and his last race out skipping over the slop was visually impressive. I think he likes it.

Although it'd be a shame if that pretty blaze of his was brown by the time he got to the finish line :lol:


The reason Bob was hoping for some rain was due to how deep/tiring he felt the surface was, preferring that it would tighten-up a bit.
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Re: Justify

Postby Treve » Tue Apr 10, 2018 12:30 am

tcw wrote:
Treve wrote:Justify's chances would actually magnify if the track is sloppy. Bob said he had hoped it would rain for the SA Derby, and his last race out skipping over the slop was visually impressive. I think he likes it.

Although it'd be a shame if that pretty blaze of his was brown by the time he got to the finish line :lol:


The reason Bob was hoping for some rain was due to how deep/tiring he felt the surface was, preferring that it would tighten-up a bit.


I am aware, but two statements are not mutually exclusive.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Re: Justify

Postby Big Ten » Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:49 pm

2014 - California Chrome
2015 - American Pharoah
2016 - Nyquist
2017 - Always Dreaming

You know in the last four runnings, I was actually skeptical against Chrome and AP. In '15, I wanted Dortmund. Only in the last two runnings when I finally decided not to "act like the contrarian" and bet on the favorite.

The irony is CC and AP will be first-ballot HoFers. The ones I was confident more in Nyquist and AD never won again after their Ky Derby win. My confidence level on Justify is sky high when I was initially skeptical of him days before the SA Derby.

That's why I'm not betting the Preakness. Confidence level is high before the Derby and he wins. But after you get him at 2-1 or 3-1, he's now 3-5 and we expect him to win another G1 race two weeks later when starts are now far more spread apart.

For me, it's a Kentucky Derby between Justify and Mendelssohn. Forget the rest. If both run their races, everyone else is running for 3rd. Sometimes both top picks don't run 1-2. Lookin At Lee ran 2nd last year at 30-1. If Justify goes off as odds-on favorite and be the first since The Bid, I'll just watch.

When Bolt ran up to him, I initially thought I messed up because I preferred BDO more than Justify. I also wasn't sure how I would feel if Justify won the SA Derby knowing he will still be overbet and be quite inexperienced heading in the Ky Derby. Only had six opponents and had a perfect trip.

It's like what Ballerina has said in the previous posts in this thread that I totally agree with. There's just something about this horse. It's that intuition we gain watching horse racing for decades. It's in our hearts. We know it. We feel it. Those same feelings we had for horses like Curlin, California Chrome, American Pharoah, etc.

Justify won the SA Derby while Mike Smith lost control of the bit and Justify got a little distracted. That's insane. BDO is not some cheap claimer. BDO would be a favorite in most other Derby years including last year. Usually Derby preps, I would forget about the race. Not this recent SA Derby. I'm still buzzing about the horse 4 days later.

I used to remember the late, great Bob Ross would say, "There are no mistakes. Only happy accidents." I want to call the horse "Baby Huey", the nickname Seattle Slew got as a youngster. Justify soundly beaten a multiple G1 winner without even trying that hard and was kinda goofing off out there.

Image
Rock Hard Ten. Zenyatta. Cigar. Ghostzapper. Lava Man. California Chrome. American Pharoah. Seattle Slew. Secretariat. Affirmed.
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Re: Justify

Postby Ballerina » Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:56 pm

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Re: Justify

Postby Treve » Thu Apr 12, 2018 3:09 pm

Justify tied for 13th on the Longines World's best racehorse rankings with a rating of 120 for his win in the SA Derby
https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... d-rankings
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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