2018 Fountain Of Youth

PJMIII
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Thu Mar 01, 2018 7:26 pm

All Eyes on Good Magic in Fountain of Youth

Juvenile champion makes anticipated season debut against nine others.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... n-of-youth
stark
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Fri Mar 02, 2018 1:13 pm

Over the years I've developed some tenets of handicapping, some good, some not so good, but they stick with me as I sit down and review PPs. For example, adding blinkers isn't necessarily that big of deal.....but if the horse has a recent quick gate drill with them presumably on, then that's a bet!

On to my rule #117a.......I usually pick one or two horses early in the triple crown parade to bet in the future books at ridiculously high odds and cheer for right up to the first Saturday in May. This is a trainer angle "play against"......as good a trainer as Bobby Frankel was, I managed to never get involved in any hype over his 2YOs as they turned 3 and there were a few really goods along the way. My theory was that Frankel wouldn't do what was necessary to peak on the first Saturday in May, way too rigorous of a campaign for his liking, so I automatically just drew a line thru any of his horses at this point in the year.

So now I'm tempted to do the same approach with his protege Chad Brown. Not only do I think he prefers having turf stars, but I can't help but think his days with Frankel play an important role as a horse is developing.

Right or wrong?

We'll find out, but I won't be boarding the Brown bus along the way, I say toss the FOY morning line favorite! :lol:
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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bare it all
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Fri Mar 02, 2018 2:26 pm

I think that's as good a reason as any to pick against Good Magic, tbh. Is this horse better than Practical Joke? Supposed to be, by default. He's bred to go longer, so remains to be seen how he goes into the 3yo season and if Brown is able to turn screws faster on these 3yos.

I think we see Marconi run really well here, but I'm betting 'Billy is a little tighter in this spot than the Holy Bull.
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Sparrow Castle
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Fri Mar 02, 2018 7:02 pm

Anthony J. Stabile @TheBigAStabile
32m32 minutes ago
Dale Romans just told us on @Xpressbet Radio on @HRRN that Free Drop BIlly may scratch from the Fountain of Youth tomorrow for the Gotham at Aqueduct next Saturday. Will "sleep on it" and decide in the morning,
Horsebagger
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Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:13 pm

stark wrote: So now I'm tempted to do the same approach with his protege Chad Brown. Not only do I think he prefers having turf stars, but I can't help but think his days with Frankel play an important role as a horse is developing.
You think he PREFERS having turf stars? Interesting. Not sure how you're reading his mind, but guessing your justification on this position is thin at best.

He's got the horse to beat tomorrow. By far. Duh. But that's coming from someone who can't cash a ticket at Gulfstream in 2018.....even after we've run 3-1-2-0 with three starters in the past week. So maybe I just got him beat by jumping on board. I'll be playing him with the rail horse, and betting that one across the board.
thinair
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Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:17 pm

Saying Chad "prefers" turf stars is dumb.

Didn't he win the Preakness last year?
stark
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:22 pm

thinair wrote:Saying Chad "prefers" turf stars is dumb.
Didn't he win the Preakness last year?
Horsebagger wrote: You think he PREFERS having turf stars? Interesting. Not sure how you're reading his mind, but guessing your justification on this position is thin at best.
Well, having two of the more respectable professionals here label me as dumb&dumber, not sure I want to prove them right again, but with only a few bucks I'll take a shot, please don't LOL.

l'll box an exacta with the 7/8.
Gotta Go at 10/1
Marconi at 8/1.
And a win bet on both at those odds or higher.

Hoping Gotta Go isn't just a late running sprinter, think he'll still be running at the end of a race that could fall apart up front, had considerable trouble in his last two- turn effort, just draw a line thru it and start over today.
Marconi from the Pletcher barn with a hefty price tag either improves or retires soon, time will tell but I'm not missing on an 8/1 shot with Castellano up in a triple crown prep race.

Both horses have a little recency edge over the heavy favorite who might have some cobwebs to work thru, I'd rather pass the race than bet on Good Magic.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:01 pm

The undercard races are really good; it's possible that many nice horses headed south instead of trying to deal with the weather north of the Mason-Dixon.
Holy Helena won the G3 The Very One, 1 3/16-miles on the turf, in WOW fashion. Tracked the leaders and then kicked past them like she had turned on a rocket pack. :D
MySaladDays
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:57 pm

I have Marconi and Gotta Go in 2nd or 3rd. Really don't have the rest of the race figured out, and Free Drop Billy was probably going to be my pick.

So I'll go with Machismo or Storm Runner on top. :)
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:26 pm

Caton just passed along the troublesome news that Fly So High, who won the Davona Dale, was pulled up on the gallop-out. Jose apparently thought she just didn't feel right; she seemed to walk soundly as she loaded onto the horse ambulance. Update later, hopefully?
Tessablue
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:44 pm

Well Hofburg has a future. That was an impossible trip for any young horse, let alone a Mott second-time starter coming off a long layoff. And he's got the pedigree to match that promise.
firehorse
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:48 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Caton just passed along the troublesome news that Fly So High, who won the Davona Dale, was pulled up on the gallop-out. Jose apparently thought she just didn't feel right; she seemed to walk soundly as she loaded onto the horse ambulance. Update later, hopefully?
On track they announced McGaughey gave a thumbs up and said she was cooling out ok and they havent found anything (?) Heard it quickly so not sure of exact verbiage but at least sounded like good update so far.
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Sparrow Castle
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:53 pm

Tessablue wrote:Well Hofburg has a future. That was an impossible trip for any young horse, let alone a Mott second-time starter coming off a long layoff. And he's got the pedigree to match that promise.
Half to Emollient. Needs some practice loading, but definitely looks promising.
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Sparrow Castle
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 5:58 pm

firehorse wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Caton just passed along the troublesome news that Fly So High, who won the Davona Dale, was pulled up on the gallop-out. Jose apparently thought she just didn't feel right; she seemed to walk soundly as she loaded onto the horse ambulance. Update later, hopefully?
On track they announced McGaughey gave a thumbs up and said she was cooling out ok and they havent found anything (?) Heard it quickly so not sure of exact verbiage but at least sounded like good update so far.
I posted some updates in the Horse Following - Phipps Horses thread.

McGaughey reports as of now, all is well with Fly So HIgh
Trainer Shug McGaughey said all is well with Fly So High following the scare shortly after her impressive victory in the Grade 2 Davona Dale. Jockey Jose Ortiz dismounted Fly So High, who was subsequently given a ride back to her barn in the horse ambulance, after feeling she might not have pulled up 100 per cent sound immediately after the race.

"She cooled out fine when I got back to the barn," said McGaughey. "Now there is a chance something could fill up in the morning, but the one thing I can say for sure is it's nothing drastic."

Fly So High's three length victory in the Davona Dale was the 2,000th of McGaughey's training career.
http://live.drf.com/nuggets/40738-mcgau ... ly-so-high
middleground
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 7:25 pm

That was, uh, non-awe-inspiring.
Tessablue
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 7:27 pm

I don't think Promises Fulfilled will go any further than that, but I give him a lot of credit for that performance because he was really gunned out of the gate from that tough post. Looked a bit like his sire out there.

Nothing to really be said for anyone else. Hopefully Good Magic just needed one.
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 7:32 pm

Shackleford appears to have passed down his no-quit quality. He didn't exactly look like a classic type either, but he won races like the Preakness because he just refused to stop trying to win.
thinair
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:49 pm

It's easier to not quit when you are setting a dawdling pace.

He went 0.21 seconds slower to the half than the maidens in the 11th race.
Tessablue
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:13 pm

He certainly got his ideal pace scenario and he was lucky that nothing ran at him in the stretch, but do I like to see a young horse come back to his jockey after gunning it early. It sure helped that nobody else went after him, though.

Hofburg is still much more interesting to me at the moment. His final time was quite a bit slower, but his last 1/16th was about the same as Promises Fulfilled despite idling on the lead and his trip was substantially less than ideal. I'd be absolutely shocked if Mott puts him on the Derby trail, but he's worth keeping an eye on.
Izvestia
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Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:20 am

Hofburg wasn’t running a straight line either - he’s got lots to learn.
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