Tough Game

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stark
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Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:21 pm

Under the full disclosure rules I'll confess to being attracted to this horse because of her name, I have a Golden Retriever who is also named FLIRTY.

So, let's take a look bringing a horse to the winners circle, or not.

First, let's find a stud for our mare, Fantastic Flirt.....how about Uncle Mo for the bargain price of $125,000.

Okay, lets sell her at auction and see what we can get. Well, $90,000 wasn't exactly what we were hoping for at the Keeneland Sept sales but it is what it is.

So now the new owners let Flirty develop and they look for a trainer, how about Todd Pletcher, he'll do.

So on December 31st the 2YO Flirty makes her racing debut at a mile on Gulfstream's turf course. Pletcher hires main man JRVelazquez to be the pilot and the public considers her to be very highly regarded sending her off at 3/1 favorite status in the straight maiden affair. She threw a wing-ding at the starting gate, didn't want to load but my bets were already in. Ho-hum, not much of a race, faded to 7th about 11 lengths back, will wait for next time to reload our wallet.

Feb 4th is the day, Pletcher tries new tactics, shortens up to 6F on the dirt and switches to Saez who he's been winning with about 40% of the time. Having just worked a 4F bullet a week earlier the public hasn't lost any confidence and sends her off at 3/1 again. Flirty bumped pretty hard with the horse just inside her coming out of the gate. Neither horse performed well running around the track in 7th and 8th place respectively, beaten 15 lengths.

Feb 24th, Pletcher has options....he's tried long on the turf and short on dirt in straight maiden affairs, what to do today?.....how about a drop in class all the way to the bottom, $12,500 claiming tag for this Uncle Mo offspring. The public doesn't go crazy overboard betting the biggest drop in racing and sends Flirty off at 5/2 favoritism this time. She runs right up on the lead for half of the 6F race before getting passed by a couple, losing by about 5 lengths while the winner paid $45.

Lets take a look at the claim box, who dropped a slip in.......nobody, she's headed back to the Pletcher shedrow.

So, here's the question for the audience here....what should Pletcher say to the Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners when he calls them about Flirty's future?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Diver52
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Sun Feb 25, 2018 1:44 pm

I believe a million dollar Baffert debuting at 1 1/8 on the turf yesterday is just now crossing the finish line. Yeah, tough game.
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
Ack Ack
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Sun Feb 25, 2018 3:37 pm

Diver52 wrote:I believe a million dollar Baffert debuting at 1 1/8 on the turf yesterday is just now crossing the finish line. Yeah, tough game.
$1,250 million.
Izvestia
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Sun Feb 25, 2018 8:07 pm

Ouch.
They can’t all be superstars. Might as well unload her, there are maiden claiming races for $4500-5000 at Hastings Park!
Ack Ack
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Sun Feb 25, 2018 10:57 pm

Izvestia wrote:Ouch.
They can’t all be superstars. Might as well unload her, there are maiden claiming races for $4500-5000 at Hastings Park!
She'd probably be a star at Turf Paradise.
BaroqueAgain1
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 12:16 am

Wouldn't she be worth more than $5,000 as a broodmare?
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Flanders
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 3:58 am

stark wrote:So, here's the question for the audience here....what should Pletcher say to the Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners when he calls them about Flirty's future?
Eclipse has been around long enough that I'm sure this isn't their first bust, nor their cheapest.
WaquoitNBroadBrush
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:10 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Wouldn't she be worth more than $5,000 as a broodmare?
That was my first thought. Since race record doesn't count as much for broodmares as it does for stallions, I'd think that unless there's something really scary about her conformation (unlikely for a filly that sold for nearly $100K at auction), her bloodlines ought to make her a decent broodmare prospect. No need to drop her to the minor leagues.
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Ridan_Remembered
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 8:15 am

There will be somewhere in the range of 25,000 foals born and registered this year (about the recent yearly average). According to Jockey Club stats, an estimated 60% will race at least once. The other 30%? Who knows what happens to them.

That's about 15,000 in the foal crop who will race at least once. Of those, the vast majority will perform similarly to or marginally better than Flirty.

I don't know the stats re how many of the 60% to race become winners (let alone stakes winners), but let's be generous. Let's say 60% of the 15,000 to race become winners. That's 9,000. And let's say 3% of those 9,000 become stakes winners at some level. That's 270. Finally, let's say a generous 10% of those 270 stakes winners become major graded stakes winners. That's 27 out of a foal crop of some 25,000.

In other words, horse racing is a gamblers game from top to bottom, and from breeding to sales to the track. Anyone who doesn't know that going in should not get in at all.
Last edited by Ridan_Remembered on Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Diver52
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:05 pm

Yeah, you either lose a little or you lose a lot.
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
katmandu
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:12 pm

It's how you make a small fortune. . . . BTDT (although mine wasn't all that big to begin with, lol).

I find the expression "unload" a horse somewhat offensive, it's part of the mental construct that alleviates responsibility for the animal's well being.
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bare it all
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 1:53 pm

I actually saw this race on Saturday and remember it because of the name Flirty.

It wasn't a -terrible- race, honestly. She got a little check to take home and maybe they learned something about her. I guess it's bad considering it's Pletcher at Gulfstream and a claiming race.

I think the more interesting piece is how did that mare get into Uncle Mo's book anyway and how did this filly even fetch $90k. Good physical and other Uncle Mo's running well I guess? She's out of an unraced Robyn Dancer mare that sold for $3k as a yearling and then $15k covered by Wildcat Heir. Hasn't produced a whole lot to write home about. Mare of that one couldn't break her maiden but she's a hard-knocking FL producer.

Even this filly's page is sort of 'meh'? Bought on the Mo hype train.

http://apps.keeneland.com/sales/Sep16/pdfs/1626.pdf

I say drop her into FL bred company and she'll probably turn into something decent for them. Try to get a win on her at least before breeding her or you're just breeding more of the same.
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Flanders
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 4:06 pm

bare it all wrote:I think the more interesting piece is how did that mare get into Uncle Mo's book anyway and how did this filly even fetch $90k. G
The mare was in his 3rd book of mares bred and the foal looks like a foal share. I wonder if they were taking anything that year and cutting a lot of deals to get mares in. They did manage to get 160 some mares bred to him which was an increase from 120 some the previous year.
Horsebagger
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:53 pm

Flanders wrote:
bare it all wrote:I think the more interesting piece is how did that mare get into Uncle Mo's book anyway and how did this filly even fetch $90k. G
The mare was in his 3rd book of mares bred and the foal looks like a foal share. I wonder if they were taking anything that year and cutting a lot of deals to get mares in. They did manage to get 160 some mares bred to him which was an increase from 120 some the previous year.
The mare was bred to UM when his fee was $27,500. Therefore, the $90,000 yearling price would be generally fair in my opinion for both breeder and purchaser. Nobody made a killing nor lost a fortune.
stark
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Mon Feb 26, 2018 7:57 pm

Horsebagger wrote:
The mare was bred to UM when his fee was $27,500. Therefore, the $90,000 yearling price would be generally fair in my opinion for both breeder and purchaser. Nobody made a killing nor lost a fortune.
Thanks
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Sun Mar 25, 2018 11:23 am

Flirty is the 9/5 morning line favorite in Gulfstream's 6th today, going a mile for the $12,500 tag.

Safe trip!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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bare it all
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Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:16 pm

stark wrote:Flirty is the 9/5 morning line favorite in Gulfstream's 6th today, going a mile for the $12,500 tag.

Safe trip!
Barely held on to 2nd and finished maybe 3 or 4 back from the winner yesterday. Still takes home a little check, but wondering how long she stays in the Pletcher barn and running in the Eclipse silks.
stark
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Tue May 15, 2018 11:22 am

Horse name Flirty
Notes Pletcher claimer
Activity type Workout
Activity date 05-15-2018
Track Thistledown
Surface Dirt
Distance 3 Furlongs
Workout type Breezing
Workout time 0:40.00
Track condition Good
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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