Derby Point Races 2018

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby honneerider » Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:01 am

Kennedy, anxious to hear your final thoughts....
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby Treve » Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:21 am

Audible, April 27th by Barbara Livingston
https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/statu ... 0186438656
Image
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby Kennedy » Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:33 am

agrussel wrote:
Kennedy wrote: For anyone who cares you can see a handy reference chart for the 20-20 system throughout it's existence by clicking on the link below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lfAtLlKipD_rs2BuhGx7XOpLKBm_dEvE9_990yP6kF0/edit?usp=sharing


As always ... great work and I continue to use and love the insight from the 20/20.
It's well respected and appreciated.

Will you be posting an updated version, removing Quip and Gronkowski and adding Combatant and Instilled Regard?
Did any of the field averages change significantly, impacting qualifiers and non-qualifiers for each criteria?


Hey I just posted the updated numbers to the sheet now. Hopefully you find them useful!

There were no major changes to the field averages as a result of the withdrawals.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby peeptoad » Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:58 am

Good to see Combatant and Lone Sailor both fared moderately well on 2020. Both are horses that have the potential to run big underneath imo.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby Tessablue » Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:58 pm

peeptoad wrote:Good to see Combatant and Lone Sailor both fared moderately well on 2020. Both are horses that have the potential to run big underneath imo.

Would you mind giving me your thoughts on Combatant if you get the chance? I completely whiffed on Lookin at Lee last year and I can't tell if Combatant is in the same mold. Right now I'm pretty stuck on the fact that he keeps losing ground in the stretch even when it seems like he should be closing.

Post draw tomorrow (at 11:00am which is a weird time, sad I'll miss it). What is everybody hoping for? Personally, I think the most important draw is Justify relative to Mendelssohn and Promises Fulfilled. If he draws inside or between them, things could get very interesting early.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby peeptoad » Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:22 pm

Tessablue wrote:
peeptoad wrote:Good to see Combatant and Lone Sailor both fared moderately well on 2020. Both are horses that have the potential to run big underneath imo.

Would you mind giving me your thoughts on Combatant if you get the chance? I completely whiffed on Lookin at Lee last year and I can't tell if Combatant is in the same mold. Right now I'm pretty stuck on the fact that he keeps losing ground in the stretch even when it seems like he should be closing.

Post draw tomorrow (at 11:00am which is a weird time, sad I'll miss it). What is everybody hoping for? Personally, I think the most important draw is Justify relative to Mendelssohn and Promises Fulfilled. If he draws inside or between them, things could get very interesting early.

Combatant is a horse that I feel might not truly get the distance but it's almost a guarantee that he'll be running at the end. That's likely only good enough for fourth if all the stars align, but he'll be massive odds and might get pace to run into. When I ran his figs in routes in several different categories he checked more boxes than I was expecting* but he's still below the 7 or 8 top horses (the obvious horses everyone is discussing). His Time form LP is 2nd or 3rd best in the field and he's been in wide posts in his last 3 at a track where you don't want a wide post.

*edit: just got home and checked the sheet: he ticks 4 of 7 boxes when you filter out the top 8 horses for each category. The same # as both Vino Rosso and Good Magic
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby Tessablue » Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:55 pm

peeptoad wrote:Combatant is a horse that I feel might not truly get the distance but it's almost a guarantee that he'll be running at the end. That's likely only good enough for fourth if all the stars align, but he'll be massive odds and might get pace to run into. When I ran his figs in routes in several different categories he checked more boxes than I was expecting* but he's still below the 7 or 8 top horses (the obvious horses everyone is discussing). His Time form LP is 2nd or 3rd best in the field and he's been in wide posts in his last 3 at a track where you don't want a wide post.

*edit: just got home and checked the sheet: he ticks 4 of 7 boxes when you filter out the top 8 horses for each category. The same # as both Vino Rosso and Good Magic

Excellent, thank you! I had no idea about the wide posts or the Time Form figures. I'll keep it in mind- there's so many nice horses in here that even just sorting through the possible longshots is tough.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby peeptoad » Tue May 01, 2018 8:26 am

Kennedy wrote:
For anyone who cares you can see a handy reference chart for the 20-20 system throughout it's existence by clicking on the link below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lfAtLlKipD_rs2BuhGx7XOpLKBm_dEvE9_990yP6kF0/edit?usp=sharing


Hey Kennedy, if you don't mind I am going to use the 2020 #s for each horse and add it to my filtration system... that will just further filter them using a different system and give a different angle since speed #s, times, pace were what I've used so far.
So far looking at route races only (and for some categories like final 3/8 only the 9F races) I've used and filtered out the top 8 for each category below. I used 8 since there seemed to be ~7-8 consensus top horses. I couldn't get enough info on Mendelssohn and this was more to see if any weird long shots filtered through (which they really didn't for the most part).

top BSF
top BRIS LP
average BRIS LP
TimformUS LP
TimformUS overall rating at 9F
9F final 3/8 time
Equibase figure


The top 7:
Audible 7
Bolt D'Oro 7
Magnum Moon 6
Justify 5
Combatant 4
Good Magic 4
Vino Rosso 4

next were Hofburg, Solomini and My Boy Jack all with 3.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby Kennedy » Tue May 01, 2018 10:51 am

peeptoad wrote:
Kennedy wrote:
For anyone who cares you can see a handy reference chart for the 20-20 system throughout it's existence by clicking on the link below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lfAtLlKipD_rs2BuhGx7XOpLKBm_dEvE9_990yP6kF0/edit?usp=sharing


Hey Kennedy, if you don't mind I am going to use the 2020 #s for each horse and add it to my filtration system... that will just further filter them using a different system and give a different angle since speed #s, times, pace were what I've used so far.
So far looking at route races only (and for some categories like final 3/8 only the 9F races) I've used and filtered out the top 8 for each category below. I used 8 since there seemed to be ~7-8 consensus top horses. I couldn't get enough info on Mendelssohn and this was more to see if any weird long shots filtered through (which they really didn't for the most part).

top BSF
top BRIS LP
average BRIS LP
TimformUS LP
TimformUS overall rating at 9F
9F final 3/8 time
Equibase figure


The top 7:
Audible 7
Bolt D'Oro 7
Magnum Moon 6
Justify 5
Combatant 4
Good Magic 4
Vino Rosso 4

next were Hofburg, Solomini and My Boy Jack all with 3.


Cool, I don't have much info on TF numbers historically as they relate to the Derby. But it is interesting to see how some horses float to the top when measured a variety of different ways.

How do the Timeform pace figs generally hold up? Do you find them more or less useful than BRIS?
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby peeptoad » Tue May 01, 2018 11:15 am

Kennedy wrote:Cool, I don't have much info on TF numbers historically as they relate to the Derby. But it is interesting to see how some horses float to the top when measured a variety of different ways.

How do the Timeform pace figs generally hold up? Do you find them more or less useful than BRIS?

I actually haven't been using TF long enough to give an accurate gauge of how they compare. Since DRF started including them in PPs and generally making some of the info more readily available I have started using them. For the late pace specifically they were similar to BRIS with a couple of exceptions, one being Justify. Justify scored I believe the highest (or maybe 2nd) LP BRIS, but was actually among the worst in the field for TF LP.
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