Derby Point Races 2018

User avatar
honneerider
Posts: 205
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:22 pm
Contact:

Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:01 am

Kennedy, anxious to hear your final thoughts....
User avatar
Treve
Posts: 4036
Joined: Fri May 08, 2015 5:12 pm

Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:21 am

Audible, April 27th by Barbara Livingston
https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/statu ... 0186438656
Image
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Kennedy
Posts: 1034
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:33 am

agrussel wrote:
Kennedy wrote: For anyone who cares you can see a handy reference chart for the 20-20 system throughout it's existence by clicking on the link below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
As always ... great work and I continue to use and love the insight from the 20/20.
It's well respected and appreciated.

Will you be posting an updated version, removing Quip and Gronkowski and adding Combatant and Instilled Regard?
Did any of the field averages change significantly, impacting qualifiers and non-qualifiers for each criteria?
Hey I just posted the updated numbers to the sheet now. Hopefully you find them useful!

There were no major changes to the field averages as a result of the withdrawals.
peeptoad
Posts: 2639
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:58 am

Good to see Combatant and Lone Sailor both fared moderately well on 2020. Both are horses that have the potential to run big underneath imo.
Tessablue
Posts: 3390
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:29 am
Location: Boston

Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:58 pm

peeptoad wrote:Good to see Combatant and Lone Sailor both fared moderately well on 2020. Both are horses that have the potential to run big underneath imo.
Would you mind giving me your thoughts on Combatant if you get the chance? I completely whiffed on Lookin at Lee last year and I can't tell if Combatant is in the same mold. Right now I'm pretty stuck on the fact that he keeps losing ground in the stretch even when it seems like he should be closing.

Post draw tomorrow (at 11:00am which is a weird time, sad I'll miss it). What is everybody hoping for? Personally, I think the most important draw is Justify relative to Mendelssohn and Promises Fulfilled. If he draws inside or between them, things could get very interesting early.
peeptoad
Posts: 2639
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:22 pm

Tessablue wrote:
peeptoad wrote:Good to see Combatant and Lone Sailor both fared moderately well on 2020. Both are horses that have the potential to run big underneath imo.
Would you mind giving me your thoughts on Combatant if you get the chance? I completely whiffed on Lookin at Lee last year and I can't tell if Combatant is in the same mold. Right now I'm pretty stuck on the fact that he keeps losing ground in the stretch even when it seems like he should be closing.

Post draw tomorrow (at 11:00am which is a weird time, sad I'll miss it). What is everybody hoping for? Personally, I think the most important draw is Justify relative to Mendelssohn and Promises Fulfilled. If he draws inside or between them, things could get very interesting early.
Combatant is a horse that I feel might not truly get the distance but it's almost a guarantee that he'll be running at the end. That's likely only good enough for fourth if all the stars align, but he'll be massive odds and might get pace to run into. When I ran his figs in routes in several different categories he checked more boxes than I was expecting* but he's still below the 7 or 8 top horses (the obvious horses everyone is discussing). His Time form LP is 2nd or 3rd best in the field and he's been in wide posts in his last 3 at a track where you don't want a wide post.

*edit: just got home and checked the sheet: he ticks 4 of 7 boxes when you filter out the top 8 horses for each category. The same # as both Vino Rosso and Good Magic
Tessablue
Posts: 3390
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:29 am
Location: Boston

Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:55 pm

peeptoad wrote: Combatant is a horse that I feel might not truly get the distance but it's almost a guarantee that he'll be running at the end. That's likely only good enough for fourth if all the stars align, but he'll be massive odds and might get pace to run into. When I ran his figs in routes in several different categories he checked more boxes than I was expecting* but he's still below the 7 or 8 top horses (the obvious horses everyone is discussing). His Time form LP is 2nd or 3rd best in the field and he's been in wide posts in his last 3 at a track where you don't want a wide post.

*edit: just got home and checked the sheet: he ticks 4 of 7 boxes when you filter out the top 8 horses for each category. The same # as both Vino Rosso and Good Magic
Excellent, thank you! I had no idea about the wide posts or the Time Form figures. I'll keep it in mind- there's so many nice horses in here that even just sorting through the possible longshots is tough.
peeptoad
Posts: 2639
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Tue May 01, 2018 8:26 am

Kennedy wrote:
For anyone who cares you can see a handy reference chart for the 20-20 system throughout it's existence by clicking on the link below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Hey Kennedy, if you don't mind I am going to use the 2020 #s for each horse and add it to my filtration system... that will just further filter them using a different system and give a different angle since speed #s, times, pace were what I've used so far.
So far looking at route races only (and for some categories like final 3/8 only the 9F races) I've used and filtered out the top 8 for each category below. I used 8 since there seemed to be ~7-8 consensus top horses. I couldn't get enough info on Mendelssohn and this was more to see if any weird long shots filtered through (which they really didn't for the most part).

top BSF
top BRIS LP
average BRIS LP
TimformUS LP
TimformUS overall rating at 9F
9F final 3/8 time
Equibase figure


The top 7:
Audible 7
Bolt D'Oro 7
Magnum Moon 6
Justify 5
Combatant 4
Good Magic 4
Vino Rosso 4

next were Hofburg, Solomini and My Boy Jack all with 3.
Kennedy
Posts: 1034
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Tue May 01, 2018 10:51 am

peeptoad wrote:
Kennedy wrote:
For anyone who cares you can see a handy reference chart for the 20-20 system throughout it's existence by clicking on the link below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Hey Kennedy, if you don't mind I am going to use the 2020 #s for each horse and add it to my filtration system... that will just further filter them using a different system and give a different angle since speed #s, times, pace were what I've used so far.
So far looking at route races only (and for some categories like final 3/8 only the 9F races) I've used and filtered out the top 8 for each category below. I used 8 since there seemed to be ~7-8 consensus top horses. I couldn't get enough info on Mendelssohn and this was more to see if any weird long shots filtered through (which they really didn't for the most part).

top BSF
top BRIS LP
average BRIS LP
TimformUS LP
TimformUS overall rating at 9F
9F final 3/8 time
Equibase figure


The top 7:
Audible 7
Bolt D'Oro 7
Magnum Moon 6
Justify 5
Combatant 4
Good Magic 4
Vino Rosso 4

next were Hofburg, Solomini and My Boy Jack all with 3.
Cool, I don't have much info on TF numbers historically as they relate to the Derby. But it is interesting to see how some horses float to the top when measured a variety of different ways.

How do the Timeform pace figs generally hold up? Do you find them more or less useful than BRIS?
peeptoad
Posts: 2639
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Tue May 01, 2018 11:15 am

Kennedy wrote: Cool, I don't have much info on TF numbers historically as they relate to the Derby. But it is interesting to see how some horses float to the top when measured a variety of different ways.

How do the Timeform pace figs generally hold up? Do you find them more or less useful than BRIS?
I actually haven't been using TF long enough to give an accurate gauge of how they compare. Since DRF started including them in PPs and generally making some of the info more readily available I have started using them. For the late pace specifically they were similar to BRIS with a couple of exceptions, one being Justify. Justify scored I believe the highest (or maybe 2nd) LP BRIS, but was actually among the worst in the field for TF LP.
peeptoad
Posts: 2639
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Tue May 01, 2018 11:33 am

I think the post draw may have killed my hopes for using Combatant as a viable longshot.
Kennedy
Posts: 1034
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Tue May 01, 2018 12:52 pm

peeptoad wrote:I think the post draw may have killed my hopes for using Combatant as a viable longshot.
Or it could be a way to keep his price up and force his hand on a new tactical style which may suit him.

Just a theory but as I've been watching this horse through the spring I've been seeing more and more parallels to Giacomo.

Both finished off the board in their first start and final start before the Derby.
Both won a maiden in their second start then never won again
Both hit the board in multiple graded stakes
Both had pre-Derby 7 starts
Neither closed any significant ground in their races and seemed steady but one paced
Both have a consistent rider who has been on board for all (or almost all) of their races
Both had a pretty steady cluster of speed figures in a range that put them on the fringe of the rest of the field.

In all his preps Giacomo was basically ridden as a stalker but he showed very little closing punch, actually no closing punch at all but he was always about 5 lengths off the lead and he'd kind of drift into the frame. There was nothing to really like about him. He was solid enough but never seemed to really do anything.

In the Derby he was more than 14 lengths back at the half and he came with a pretty good closing punch. The pace forced his hand and made him a closer and it turned out to be a real blessing.

Maybe the same can be true of Combatant. He hasn't been stalking in his preps but never really getting too far back and never really making any kind of major move. He's just kind of steady overall. Maybe post 20 makes him drop to the back and come with one run. If the pace is there it could work out. He probably was never good enough to sit a middle stalking trip and get a piece anyway
BigDonOKC
Posts: 288
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Tue May 01, 2018 9:38 pm

Kennedy wrote:
peeptoad wrote:I think the post draw may have killed my hopes for using Combatant as a viable longshot.
Or it could be a way to keep his price up and force his hand on a new tactical style which may suit him.

Just a theory but as I've been watching this horse through the spring I've been seeing more and more parallels to Giacomo.

Both finished off the board in their first start and final start before the Derby.
Both won a maiden in their second start then never won again
Both hit the board in multiple graded stakes
Both had pre-Derby 7 starts
Neither closed any significant ground in their races and seemed steady but one paced
Both have a consistent rider who has been on board for all (or almost all) of their races
Both had a pretty steady cluster of speed figures in a range that put them on the fringe of the rest of the field.

In all his preps Giacomo was basically ridden as a stalker but he showed very little closing punch, actually no closing punch at all but he was always about 5 lengths off the lead and he'd kind of drift into the frame. There was nothing to really like about him. He was solid enough but never seemed to really do anything.

In the Derby he was more than 14 lengths back at the half and he came with a pretty good closing punch. The pace forced his hand and made him a closer and it turned out to be a real blessing.

Maybe the same can be true of Combatant. He hasn't been stalking in his preps but never really getting too far back and never really making any kind of major move. He's just kind of steady overall. Maybe post 20 makes him drop to the back and come with one run. If the pace is there it could work out. He probably was never good enough to sit a middle stalking trip and get a piece anyway
8-) giacomo did not have to run from the 20 hole. but Combatant is still on my list.
peeptoad
Posts: 2639
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Wed May 02, 2018 7:39 am

Thanks Kennedy! ;)
BigDonOKC
Posts: 288
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Wed May 02, 2018 10:44 am

Derby record
year win place show 4th
1999.. 16 18 10 13
2000. 15 2 14 9
2001. 16 13 8 4
2002. 5 12 3 1
2003. 5 11 4 3
2004. 13 3 8 1
2005. 10 18 12 17
2006. 8 13 2 1
2007. 7 8 2 5
2008. 20 5 6 2
2009. 8 5 2 7
2010. 4 2 10 9
2011. 16 19 13 14
2012 19 6 5 13
2013 16 4 3 5
2014 5 17 4 20
2015 18 10 8 15
2016 13 11 5 14
2017 5 1 11 14
2018
8-) THINK ABOUT IT
stark
Posts: 3858
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Wed May 02, 2018 10:58 am

peeptoad wrote:
Kennedy wrote: Cool, I don't have much info on TF numbers historically as they relate to the Derby. But it is interesting to see how some horses float to the top when measured a variety of different ways.

How do the Timeform pace figs generally hold up? Do you find them more or less useful than BRIS?
I actually haven't been using TF long enough to give an accurate gauge of how they compare. Since DRF started including them in PPs and generally making some of the info more readily available I have started using them. For the late pace specifically they were similar to BRIS with a couple of exceptions, one being Justify. Justify scored I believe the highest (or maybe 2nd) LP BRIS, but was actually among the worst in the field for TF LP.

Just FYI....
Register @ DRF for FREE handicapping seminar with TimeformUS, today at 7pm eastern.
DRF's Triple Crown correspondent Jay Privman and TFUS's head figure maker Craig Milkowski join Peter Thomas Fornatale of the DRF Players' Podcast for a deep dive into the PPs of the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
Posts: 288
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Wed May 02, 2018 12:22 pm

Now it is time to pick top for 16/5 with 5/18/10 with 10/8 /5 with 1/14/6

5 to win 8-)
stark
Posts: 3858
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Wed May 02, 2018 12:26 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:Now it is time to pick top for 16/5 with 5/18/10 with 10/8 /5 with 1/14/6
Just curious....how much does that superfecta cost?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
Posts: 288
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Wed May 02, 2018 5:31 pm

stark wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:Now it is time to pick top for 16/5 with 5/18/10 with 10/8 /5 with 1/14/6
Just curious....how much does that superfecta cost?
$30.00 on $1.00 ;)
stark
Posts: 3858
Joined: Thu Oct 03, 2013 9:55 am
Location: SoCal

Thu May 10, 2018 10:36 am

Will there be a spreadsheet analysis for the Preakness Stakes?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Post Reply