It was definitely a talked about statistical anomaly/angle last year... and then the favourite won again, bucking a historical trend (the last time 4 favourites won in a row was several decades back and I think last year marked the first time the favourite won 5 times in a row?). I seem to remember last year one of the prevailing theories is that the public at large has become better clued in and better at picking a Derby winner... partly because it's one of the races with the most historical info out there. I'm not sure why it's not being mentioned at all this year.Somnambulist wrote:Why is there nothing on what a statistical anomaly this is? Favorites winning the Derby, anyway.Tessablue wrote: It is insanely hard to predict the Derby odds though. The only thing I'm fairly confident about is Justify's odds, because the public has caught on to the fact that favorites have done well in this race recently and I think that will create a feedback loop that further lowers his odds.
But I do think it is awfully interesting that it coincides with the beginning of the points system. The lack of no-hoper cheap speedball types aren't making it into the gate anymore in such a way that the pace could meltdown in a significant way. It also keeps out the Mine That Bird and Giacomo surprises of this world. I think those are some of the elements that have made the last several Derbies true to form.
Even in spite of unexpected occurrences like Thunder Snow expressing the opinion he would not run today. I do still wonder what could have been with Classic Empire had he not been t-boned and bounced at the start and forced back much further than he liked to be. If I remember correctly the distance travelled was the second furthest overall and corresponded to a little more than the margin separating him from Always Dreaming. Then again if he had won it wouldn't be such a huge shift in the trend since he was the M/L favourite, although he wasn't the betting favourite.