Derby Point Races 2018

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Treve
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Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:29 pm

Somnambulist wrote:
Tessablue wrote: It is insanely hard to predict the Derby odds though. The only thing I'm fairly confident about is Justify's odds, because the public has caught on to the fact that favorites have done well in this race recently and I think that will create a feedback loop that further lowers his odds.
Why is there nothing on what a statistical anomaly this is? Favorites winning the Derby, anyway.
It was definitely a talked about statistical anomaly/angle last year... and then the favourite won again, bucking a historical trend (the last time 4 favourites won in a row was several decades back and I think last year marked the first time the favourite won 5 times in a row?). I seem to remember last year one of the prevailing theories is that the public at large has become better clued in and better at picking a Derby winner... partly because it's one of the races with the most historical info out there. I'm not sure why it's not being mentioned at all this year.

But I do think it is awfully interesting that it coincides with the beginning of the points system. The lack of no-hoper cheap speedball types aren't making it into the gate anymore in such a way that the pace could meltdown in a significant way. It also keeps out the Mine That Bird and Giacomo surprises of this world. I think those are some of the elements that have made the last several Derbies true to form.

Even in spite of unexpected occurrences like Thunder Snow expressing the opinion he would not run today. I do still wonder what could have been with Classic Empire had he not been t-boned and bounced at the start and forced back much further than he liked to be. If I remember correctly the distance travelled was the second furthest overall and corresponded to a little more than the margin separating him from Always Dreaming. Then again if he had won it wouldn't be such a huge shift in the trend since he was the M/L favourite, although he wasn't the betting favourite.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
stark
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Fri Apr 27, 2018 8:43 pm

Somnambulist wrote:I really live in a world where Justify might be 3-1.
Your point being?
Maybe you'll be going to the ATM to get a little extra cash to take advantage of those generous odds?
Can't pass up an opportunity to get down on a Baffert/California entry in a Triple Crown race?

Hopefully it won't be similar to the 2005 embarrassing results when New York bamboozled the racing world into believing that Bellamy World was Secretariat Part Deux and made him 5/2 on Derby day off the romp in the Wood Memorial where he then finished a well beaten 7th on May 7th.

It's rather amazing racing survived that sham where the steam rolled into Vegas, as it will once again no matter the Justify results. Tho' I am inclined to believe his 3YO career will be far superior to Zito's charge who lost the Travers to Flower Alley then was never heard from again on the track, time will tell.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Somnambulist
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Fri Apr 27, 2018 9:20 pm

Everyone in California is so sad. It's a shame. It's honestly worthy of psychological study.

Really a horse starting for the fourth time is anticipated 3/1 and people are baffled? But I'm the crazy one.

I'd personally love some Xanax so toss em here.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Ballerina
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Fri Apr 27, 2018 11:12 pm

[quote="Somnambulist"]Everyone in California is so sad. It's a shame. It's honestly worthy of psychological study.

Really a horse starting for the fourth time is anticipated 3/1 and people are baffled? But I'm the crazy one.

I'd personally love some Xanax so toss em here.[/quote

You can use that $2 you say you have in the bank and buy a Happy Meal.
Tessablue
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Sat Apr 28, 2018 12:07 am

Somnambulist wrote:I really live in a world where Justify might be 3-1.
Yep, he was 3-1 in the last future pool. I wouldn't be surprised if he's bet down a bit from whatever his morning line is, much like Nyquist was.

I think a lot of favorites have won in a row because we've had some good winners and a better-educated betting public. Orb and Always Dreaming weren't even favored on the morning line, and I wonder if Barbaro would have gone off favored if people had as much access to information as they do today. It's also a lot easier for the favorite to win when the favorite is California Chrome or American Pharoah, rather than Dialed In or Friesan Fire. And although this race is often made out to be impossible to handicap and semi-random in its outcomes, the best horse has won it for quite a few years in a row now.

There'a an argument to be made that the points system soften the pace somewhat, but the only real carousel so far was in 2015. Frosted ran so well in that race...
BigDonOKC
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Sat Apr 28, 2018 8:47 am

Tessablue wrote:
Somnambulist wrote:I really live in a world where Justify might be 3-1.
Yep, he was 3-1 in the last future pool. I wouldn't be surprised if he's bet down a bit from whatever his morning line is, much like Nyquist was.

I think a lot of favorites have won in a row because we've had some good winners and a better-educated betting public. Orb and Always Dreaming weren't even favored on the morning line, and I wonder if Barbaro would have gone off favored if people had as much access to information as they do today. It's also a lot easier for the favorite to win when the favorite is California Chrome or American Pharoah, rather than Dialed In or Friesan Fire. And although this race is often made out to be impossible to handicap and semi-random in its outcomes, the best horse has won it for quite a few years in a row now.

There'a an argument to be made that the points system soften the pace somewhat, but the only real carousel so far was in 2015. Frosted ran so well in that race...
should say best horse that day -- not best horse
peeptoad
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Sat Apr 28, 2018 9:12 am

Audible and/or Bolt at ~8-1? I hope that holds and I suspect it might...
agrussel
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Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:09 pm

Kennedy wrote: For anyone who cares you can see a handy reference chart for the 20-20 system throughout it's existence by clicking on the link below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
As always ... great work and I continue to use and love the insight from the 20/20.
It's well respected and appreciated.

Will you be posting an updated version, removing Quip and Gronkowski and adding Combatant and Instilled Regard?
Did any of the field averages change significantly, impacting qualifiers and non-qualifiers for each criteria?
Forry Cow How
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 7:50 am

agrussel wrote:
Kennedy wrote: For anyone who cares you can see a handy reference chart for the 20-20 system throughout it's existence by clicking on the link below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
As always ... great work and I continue to use and love the insight from the 20/20.
It's well respected and appreciated.

Will you be posting an updated version, removing Quip and Gronkowski and adding Combatant and Instilled Regard?
Did any of the field averages change significantly, impacting qualifiers and non-qualifiers for each criteria?
Yes, I'd like to see where Instilled Regard fits. This one has a good track record. FWIW, I have thrown out the top three on this sheet. Hmm....
peeptoad
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:30 am

Forry Cow How wrote:FWIW, I have thrown out the top three on this sheet. Hmm....
Meaning Audible, Justify and Good Magic or Magnum Moon? I think there were 4 perfect qualifiers on the 2020...
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honneerider
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:01 am

Kennedy, anxious to hear your final thoughts....
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Treve
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:21 am

Audible, April 27th by Barbara Livingston
https://twitter.com/DRFLivingston/statu ... 0186438656
Image
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
Kennedy
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:33 am

agrussel wrote:
Kennedy wrote: For anyone who cares you can see a handy reference chart for the 20-20 system throughout it's existence by clicking on the link below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
As always ... great work and I continue to use and love the insight from the 20/20.
It's well respected and appreciated.

Will you be posting an updated version, removing Quip and Gronkowski and adding Combatant and Instilled Regard?
Did any of the field averages change significantly, impacting qualifiers and non-qualifiers for each criteria?
Hey I just posted the updated numbers to the sheet now. Hopefully you find them useful!

There were no major changes to the field averages as a result of the withdrawals.
peeptoad
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 11:58 am

Good to see Combatant and Lone Sailor both fared moderately well on 2020. Both are horses that have the potential to run big underneath imo.
Tessablue
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:58 pm

peeptoad wrote:Good to see Combatant and Lone Sailor both fared moderately well on 2020. Both are horses that have the potential to run big underneath imo.
Would you mind giving me your thoughts on Combatant if you get the chance? I completely whiffed on Lookin at Lee last year and I can't tell if Combatant is in the same mold. Right now I'm pretty stuck on the fact that he keeps losing ground in the stretch even when it seems like he should be closing.

Post draw tomorrow (at 11:00am which is a weird time, sad I'll miss it). What is everybody hoping for? Personally, I think the most important draw is Justify relative to Mendelssohn and Promises Fulfilled. If he draws inside or between them, things could get very interesting early.
peeptoad
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:22 pm

Tessablue wrote:
peeptoad wrote:Good to see Combatant and Lone Sailor both fared moderately well on 2020. Both are horses that have the potential to run big underneath imo.
Would you mind giving me your thoughts on Combatant if you get the chance? I completely whiffed on Lookin at Lee last year and I can't tell if Combatant is in the same mold. Right now I'm pretty stuck on the fact that he keeps losing ground in the stretch even when it seems like he should be closing.

Post draw tomorrow (at 11:00am which is a weird time, sad I'll miss it). What is everybody hoping for? Personally, I think the most important draw is Justify relative to Mendelssohn and Promises Fulfilled. If he draws inside or between them, things could get very interesting early.
Combatant is a horse that I feel might not truly get the distance but it's almost a guarantee that he'll be running at the end. That's likely only good enough for fourth if all the stars align, but he'll be massive odds and might get pace to run into. When I ran his figs in routes in several different categories he checked more boxes than I was expecting* but he's still below the 7 or 8 top horses (the obvious horses everyone is discussing). His Time form LP is 2nd or 3rd best in the field and he's been in wide posts in his last 3 at a track where you don't want a wide post.

*edit: just got home and checked the sheet: he ticks 4 of 7 boxes when you filter out the top 8 horses for each category. The same # as both Vino Rosso and Good Magic
Tessablue
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Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:55 pm

peeptoad wrote: Combatant is a horse that I feel might not truly get the distance but it's almost a guarantee that he'll be running at the end. That's likely only good enough for fourth if all the stars align, but he'll be massive odds and might get pace to run into. When I ran his figs in routes in several different categories he checked more boxes than I was expecting* but he's still below the 7 or 8 top horses (the obvious horses everyone is discussing). His Time form LP is 2nd or 3rd best in the field and he's been in wide posts in his last 3 at a track where you don't want a wide post.

*edit: just got home and checked the sheet: he ticks 4 of 7 boxes when you filter out the top 8 horses for each category. The same # as both Vino Rosso and Good Magic
Excellent, thank you! I had no idea about the wide posts or the Time Form figures. I'll keep it in mind- there's so many nice horses in here that even just sorting through the possible longshots is tough.
peeptoad
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Tue May 01, 2018 8:26 am

Kennedy wrote:
For anyone who cares you can see a handy reference chart for the 20-20 system throughout it's existence by clicking on the link below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Hey Kennedy, if you don't mind I am going to use the 2020 #s for each horse and add it to my filtration system... that will just further filter them using a different system and give a different angle since speed #s, times, pace were what I've used so far.
So far looking at route races only (and for some categories like final 3/8 only the 9F races) I've used and filtered out the top 8 for each category below. I used 8 since there seemed to be ~7-8 consensus top horses. I couldn't get enough info on Mendelssohn and this was more to see if any weird long shots filtered through (which they really didn't for the most part).

top BSF
top BRIS LP
average BRIS LP
TimformUS LP
TimformUS overall rating at 9F
9F final 3/8 time
Equibase figure


The top 7:
Audible 7
Bolt D'Oro 7
Magnum Moon 6
Justify 5
Combatant 4
Good Magic 4
Vino Rosso 4

next were Hofburg, Solomini and My Boy Jack all with 3.
Kennedy
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Tue May 01, 2018 10:51 am

peeptoad wrote:
Kennedy wrote:
For anyone who cares you can see a handy reference chart for the 20-20 system throughout it's existence by clicking on the link below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
Hey Kennedy, if you don't mind I am going to use the 2020 #s for each horse and add it to my filtration system... that will just further filter them using a different system and give a different angle since speed #s, times, pace were what I've used so far.
So far looking at route races only (and for some categories like final 3/8 only the 9F races) I've used and filtered out the top 8 for each category below. I used 8 since there seemed to be ~7-8 consensus top horses. I couldn't get enough info on Mendelssohn and this was more to see if any weird long shots filtered through (which they really didn't for the most part).

top BSF
top BRIS LP
average BRIS LP
TimformUS LP
TimformUS overall rating at 9F
9F final 3/8 time
Equibase figure


The top 7:
Audible 7
Bolt D'Oro 7
Magnum Moon 6
Justify 5
Combatant 4
Good Magic 4
Vino Rosso 4

next were Hofburg, Solomini and My Boy Jack all with 3.
Cool, I don't have much info on TF numbers historically as they relate to the Derby. But it is interesting to see how some horses float to the top when measured a variety of different ways.

How do the Timeform pace figs generally hold up? Do you find them more or less useful than BRIS?
peeptoad
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Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 6:53 pm

Tue May 01, 2018 11:15 am

Kennedy wrote: Cool, I don't have much info on TF numbers historically as they relate to the Derby. But it is interesting to see how some horses float to the top when measured a variety of different ways.

How do the Timeform pace figs generally hold up? Do you find them more or less useful than BRIS?
I actually haven't been using TF long enough to give an accurate gauge of how they compare. Since DRF started including them in PPs and generally making some of the info more readily available I have started using them. For the late pace specifically they were similar to BRIS with a couple of exceptions, one being Justify. Justify scored I believe the highest (or maybe 2nd) LP BRIS, but was actually among the worst in the field for TF LP.
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