Derby Point Races 2018

BigDonOKC
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:45 pm

Kennedy wrote:March 12, 2018

1. Bolt D’Oro (1)
2. Audible (2)
3. McKinzie (3)
4. Catholic Boy (4)
5. Good Magic (5)
6. Bravazo (8)
7. Flameaway (new)
8. Quip (new)
9. Instilled Regard (new)
10. Vino Rosso (9)

On the Radar: Instilled Regard, Promises Fulfilled, Mourinho, Noble Indy, Combatant, Justify, Mendelssohn, Nero

Dropped: Tiz Mischief (6), Untamed Domain (7), Free Drop Billy (10)


One of the things I like to do as a personal discipline is to try and keep getting better by picking up on areas that have historically been a knowledge gap or weakness. Last year I started my focus on trying to understand pace a little better. I’m sure I have a fractured understanding but I am increasingly convinced that pace, projections and closing fractions do contain clues to true ability and forward progress. I’m not expert on how to really calculate and then harness those clues but I’m giving it a shot.

I say that to preface my perspective on some of the racing action that took place this weekend which I think means that I’m taking a stand on some horses that seems non-sensical.

My interest in any of the Gotham runners has been permanently ended. I added Free Drop Billy to my list last week because I couldn’t find anyone interesting but it was against my better judgment and I think the Gotham confirmed that while he and Firenze Fire will likely have the points to be in the Derby they shouldn’t go. They’re not going get better with distance and there just isn’t any point unless the owners really want to walk over and soak in the aura.

Enticed may have won but from a 10f projection and closing fraction perspective he was actually worse in the Gotham than he was in the Holy Bull. I think he’s not a Derby horse, he won’t like the added ground and he’s the kind of horse who, if he runs, would never get his name mentioned and run 16th.

Despite the hype and the nice looking BSF I’m not on the Justify band wagon. It’s not the two lifetime starts and lack of experience at two years old. I just don’t think his two turn debut showed the kind of special ability that points to Derby success. His closing fraction was 13.4. That is unbelievably poor for an 8f race. I know he was being eased like crazy but good horses don’t come home that slow. I’m not falling for him based on the evidence that exists and I would most definitely play against him in a 9f prep.

Bolt D’Oro and McKinzie were great and from a Derby perspective I actually don’t care about the bumping, the DQ and all the controversy. At the end of the Day both horses confirmed their status as elite contenders. Personally I thought that there was nothing to pick at in a negative way for either horse but I still do have Bolt D’Oro as the better Derby candidate of the two. I just think that there is so much more in the tank and he’s a powerfully built horse that will go from strength to strength. McKinzie is all talent but somehow I feel he is less robust as a 10f horse. We’ve seen Derbies won on talent alone so I think along with Audible these are the three who are well above the rest.

I thought the TB Derby was another example of what to expect from this crop and why all the other contenders aside from my top 3 are so hard to nail down. I think they’re all a touch ordinary and each one can have their day. Quip ran a good race and did what he had to given the way the race unfolded. The pace was really slow so closers were always going to be up against it. Quip finished up like a decent horse but seems like he is probably second tier.

I think Flameaway was probably the top horse coming out of the TB Derby just because he was given no chance based on the pace of the race the trouble he had and the trip they ended up with. The first half was in :49 and he was in 4th place at that time. Even a final closing split of 12.2 wasn’t enough to get him there but you feel like he was probably the horse with the best future prospects. My biggest concern is that he is a bit slow on the speed scale. You know he’s got to do much better than that to compete in prime time.

I haven’t dropped Vino Rosso yet for two reasons. #1 There isn’t a big list of horses I like that are just waiting to knock him off. And #2 I think the trip and tactics screwed him up in the TB Derby and he could do better. The blinkers, the up close trip, the slow pace..it all seemed to combine to take him out of his game. I don’t know if he’s all that good but I feel like this crop could eventually play into the hands of one closer and maybe he’s that closer.

Look at all the preps, there has been very little passing in general and on the lead or near the lead has been the place to be almost every time. I have to think that eventually we’ll get a race that implodes and sets up for a closer. I’m not sure if Vino Rosso is that closer necessarily but he could be.

Kennedy It so nice to see someone who look at horses and tries to improve on prediction the outcome of a race. I hate to see you drop Free Drop Billy he is on my list to play in 3rd and you are right he cannot win and he will take 3rd if he get the right post. You said you are looking into pace I for one look at true time yards per second.
As a race predictor you should have rules to play by sample:
(1) Kentucky derby play horses who don’t give up ground. Exception you can forgive a horse for one bad race but not two.
(2) Kentucky derby always play a horse who has never been out of the money in 2nd or 3rd.
(3) In K>D> watch for 1 3/16 pole horse on top will be there in 2 weeks.
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Treve
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:40 pm

Izvestia wrote:
Treve wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:IMHO, the POINT is that a win in the single, 100 point prep is not guaranteed. If connections were to gamble on that strategy, it would just take one stumble out of the gate to leave your Derby hopeful sitting back in the barn on the first Saturday in May. :oops:
with the points distribution for the 100 points races though your horse doesn't even need to win. A place finish guarantees you'll get in. A show finish gives you good chances although doesn't guarantee.
You could have a combination of the two systems - earnings in non restricted 3yo stakes. The current system actually does allow a 2yo that doesn't move much forward to get in the gate, as there are a few juvenile points races.
We’ve seen a lot less of those horses in the Derby since the point system came in.
True, although on the other hand every single post time favourite has won the Derby since the point system was started. Most of those have also been ML faves. This is very much unprecedented. I also think most of not all have been front end horses. I suppose whether that's a good or a bad thing depends on perspective.
And ultimately every year there are horses who don't belong who end up in the gate.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
BigDonOKC
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:27 pm

A great horse can over come a stumble at the gate a bad trip a stll beat a good horse to the wire just ask curlin about the Belmont. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
BigDonOKC
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:30 pm

The best horse has not run yet . that is Audible run 18.35 yard a second ;)
BigDonOKC
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:50 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:The best horse has not run yet . that is Audible run 18.35 yard a second ;)

if he holds his speed he can run a 1:59.89 derby :roll:
sweettalk
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:19 pm

untamed domain needs to go back to grass.
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Starine
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Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:10 pm

I agree the big three consists of Bolt d'Oro, McKinzie and Audible at this point.

But as far as slight outsiders, I'm really keen on Quip and Bravazo. Both have great pedigrees for the distance and I think their recent closing splits are quite admirable.
BigDonOKC
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Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:13 pm

Starine wrote:I agree the big three consists of Bolt d'Oro, McKinzie and Audible at this point.

But as far as slight outsiders, I'm really keen on Quip and Bravazo. Both have great pedigrees for the distance and I think their recent closing splits are quite admirable.
I hope not Quip runs at 17.9 YAS slow Bravazo runs at 18.16 not quite average at 18.33

These are not for me. :shock:
BaroqueAgain1
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Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:57 pm

Trio Of U.S.-Based Colts Pointed To Meydan’s UAE Derby
Americans to join the fray this week include a member of ‘Team Gun Runner,' Winchell Thoroughbreds' Steve Asmussen-trained Reride. Like Gun Runner, a son of Candy Ride, the game colt has two consecutive stakes wins and impressively took the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland Park last out in the desert of New Mexico.
Reride may be joined by fellow U.S.-based colts All Out Blitz and Machismo. The former is multiple graded stakes-placed with the latter just finished a respectable fourth in the Fountain of Youth (G2), a historically high-class Kentucky Derby prep over 1700m at Gulfstream Park.

Read more: https://www.paulickreport.com/news/trip ... uae-derby/

They all may be running for second, as Godolphin's Gold Town (Street Cry) has been dominating in the Carnival's UAE Derby preps. Too bad he's a gelding.
BigDonOKC
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Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:16 pm

stark wrote:Andy Serling
‏@andyserling

Firenze Fire ran a credible race, and is a very good horse, but given his trip and the race dynamics, he should have finished better. At the end of the day he is likely best up to one mile, particularly around one turn.
That a given 8-)
BigDonOKC
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Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:01 am

the coming up weekend point races are Rebel AT Oaklawn it will be a 50 point race and the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park that is a 20 point race,
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OaklawnCapper
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Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:29 pm

Interested to see who is running in the Rebel.
BigDonOKC
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Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:22 pm

Re: 3yos of 2018
Postby Sparrow Castle » Mon Mar 12, 2018 5:24 pm

RIP, Mourinho.

Avery Island questionable for Kentucky Derby
Top Kentucky Derby prospect Avery Island has been sidelined and will be shipped to Lexington, Kentucky tomorrow (Tuesday) to be further evaluated by Dr. Larry Bramlage at Rood and Riddle Equine Hospital. He came back lame after working on Friday but initial x-rays ruled out any structural damage.

Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said: “It’s very disappointing for all of us here at Godolphin, and plans are on hold until we know more about the injury.

“He’s done something to himself. But we will wait until we hear from Dr. Bramlage before deciding the next move,” the trainer added.

Avery Island won his last start, the G3 Withers at Aqueduct, in convincing style to become one of the most popular prospects for the Kentucky Derby.

https://news.godolphin.com/news/avery-i ... ucky-derby
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Sparrow Castle

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This is important and need posted here he is 17 0n derby list
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Sparrow Castle
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Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:49 pm

Rebel draws field of 11 for Saturday running at Oaklawn
Below please find the field for the Grade 2, $900,000 Rebel Stakes, a Kentucky Derby points race to be run Saturday at Oaklawn. The horses are listed in post position order, with riders, courtesy of the racing office:

1. Title Ready, Jose Ortiz

2. Curlin's Honor, Florent Geroux

3. Solomini, Flavien Prat

4. Magnum Moon, Luis Saez

5. Higher Power, Richard Eramia

6. Pryor, Robby Albarado

7. Sporting Chance, John Velazquez

8. High North, Gary Stevens

9. Zing Zang, Corey Lanerie

10. Combatant, Ricardo Santana, Jr.

11. Bode's Maker, Jareth Loveberry
http://live.drf.com/nuggets/41051-rebel ... at-oaklawn

Byron King @DRFByronKing
56m56 minutes ago
Jeff Ruby Steaks field from @TurfwayPark:
Sky Promise
Cash Call Kitten
Archaggelos
Pony Up
Magicalmeister
Mugaritz
Hazit
Blended Citizen
Dreamer's Point
Zanesville
Ride A Comet
Arawak
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Ballerina
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Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:03 pm

BigDonOKC
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Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:05 pm

OAKLAWN 0 DATE 43176 RACE 10 TYPE OF RACE GADEII DISTANCE 1 1/16m
HORSE # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1R-Speed 94 81 101 90 85 94 89 91 88 92 86 0 0 0
Average Speed 89 86 99 95 82 80 92 86 87 93 68 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
1RP -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 3 5 5 2 2 0 0 0
Average Place 0.3 -1.0 1.0 -1.0 0.3 2.7 0.3 2.7 2.7 2.0 6.7 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
1R LO -3.5 -0.1 -0.8 -0.1 -0.8 -5.8 7.0 5.8 8.3 4.5 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Average LO 0.4 -0.1 3.8 -0.1 0.9 4.1 1.6 3.6 4.3 3.3 16.8 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Win % 40% 100% 25% 100% 67% 25% 50% 20% 20% 20% 11% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Show% 80% 100% 100% 100% 100% 50% 100% 40% 20% 80% 44% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
inmoney% 180% 300% 200% 300% 233% 100% 225% 100% 60% 180% 89% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Money 101 56 472 38 69 55 319 75 50 249 67 0 0 0
money Per race 20 28 118 19 23 14 80 15 10 50 7 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SYESTEM 149 159 258 164 146 113 212 98 91 170 69 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SYSTEM W.MONEY 250 215 730 202 215 168 531 173 141 419 136 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
old system 7 8 8 9 7 3 8 0 0 6 0
HORSE # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
TOP 5
1R-Speed 3 1…6 10 8 SPEED 3 10
Average Speed 3 4 10 7 1
1RP 1..2..3 4..5..6 PLACE 2…4..1..5
Average Place 2…4 1….5 3
1R LO 6 1 2…4 3…5 LENGTH 2…4
Average LO 2…4 1 5 7
Win % 2..4 5 7 W% 2….4 5 5
Show% 2…3..4 5…7 S %
inmoney% 2…4 7 5 IM OFF POST
Money 3 7 10 1 8 RM 3 7 10
money Per race 3 7 10 5 S-SWM 3 7 10
SYESTEM 3 7 10 2…..3 SWM-OS 3 7
SYSTEM W.MONEY 3 7 10 1 5 S-SWM-OS 3 7 10….2
old system 4 2…3..7 PICK 3 10 7 2
RAN
BigDonOKC
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Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:58 pm

I will predict the horse who will run second at Oakland on 3-17-18 will be # 10 Combatant :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
BigDonOKC
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Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:05 am

TURFWAY 0 DATE 43176 RACE 6 TYPE OF RACE GRADE III DISTANCE 11/8M
HORSE # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1R-Speed 90 77 80 82 91 97 93 100 83 84 80 88 0
Average Speed 81 77 80 89 78 91 84 92 82 82 85 83 #DIV/0!
1RP 2 -1 4 5 -1 4 2 3 4 -1 -1 3 0
Average Place 3.3 -1.0 0.7 3.0 0.3 1.7 5.0 2.0 3.0 0.0 0.7 2.3 #DIV/0!
1R LO 0.5 -1.0 5.0 20.0 -0.5 4.5 1.0 1.8 6.0 -7.5 -3.5 2.8 0.0
Average LO 2.6 -3.1 0.8 8.7 -0.5 2.1 11.7 1.0 4.0 -1.9 -2.5 2.5 #DIV/0!
Win % 10% 100% 50% 20% 67% 33% 25% 14% 20% 40% 40% 25% #DIV/0!
Show% 60% 100% 75% 80% 100% 50% 50% 43% 80% 60% 40% 50% #DIV/0!
inmoney% 100% 300% 200% 180% 233% 133% 125% 71% 140% 160% 120% 100% #DIV/0!
Money 82 48 94 76 59 51 89 54 51 59 50 108 0
money Per race 8 24 24 15 20 9 22 8 10 12 10 14 #DIV/0!
SYESTEM 89 110 105 94 108 100 100 100 89 98 97 98 #DIV/0!
SYSTEM W.MONEY 171 158 199 170 167 151 189 154 140 157 147 206 #DIV/0!
old system
HORSE # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
TOP 5
1R-Speed 8 6 7 5 1 SPEED 8 6 7
Average Speed 8 6 4 7 11
1RP 2,,,5 10…11 PLACE 2 5.10.11
Average Place 2 10 5 11
1R LO 10 11 5 2 LENGTH 10 11 2..5
Average LO 2 10 11 5
Win % 2 6 3 W% 2 6 3
Show% 2…5 4,,,9 S % 2..5 4..9 2
inmoney% 2 5 4 3 IM 2 5 4 3 OFF
Money 12 3 7 1 RM 3 7 3,,,7
money Per race 2…3 7 5 S-SWM 3
SYESTEM 2 3 5 6,,7..8 SWM-OS 3 7
SYSTEM W.MONEY 12 3 7 1 S-SWM-OS 3 2 7,,,5
old system 2 5 3 7 PICK 3,,2..7
RAN
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Sparrow Castle
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Fri Mar 16, 2018 2:21 pm

Jeremy Balan Verified account@BH_JBalan
15m15 minutes ago
Updated Bob Baffert targets for upcoming Derby preps, "if all goes well," of course:

Santa Anita Derby: McKinzie
Arkansas Derby: Justify
Sunland Derby: Restoring Hope, Ax Man (if he doesn't run in the Pasadena this weekend).
BigDonOKC
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Sat Mar 17, 2018 9:13 am

i am looking at Manum moon to win the Rebel
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