Derby Point Races 2018

BigDonOKC
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Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:26 pm

stark wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:the to be pick up this week end point were 50-20-10-5 that means a total of 12 horses had a chance to get points and 7 of these horses are now in top 10. I do not like the point system. :?:
Would you prefer they use qualifying times like they do for million dollar quarterhorse races at Los Alamitos?

Or would you like they way Olympic speed skaters needed to qualify as best 2 out of 4 after 4 years of preparation?

All systems suck, this is just the one we have right now.

What if we had a National Racing Czarina, what rule would she make?
I like the way it use to be back in the day
BaroqueAgain1
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Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:38 pm

Do you mean the days when money earnings determined who got in the gate? That system had some serious flaws, like how a win by a two-year-old in a race with a boosted purse (think Delta Jackpot) would guarantee a place in the Derby, even if the two-year-old did not progress as a three-year-old.
I'm not saying the points system is perfect, but it generally means that a juvenile is not going to earn so many points that he doesn't even have to race in a sophomore prep. With the points spread over many races, gradually increasing through the spring, trainers have the chance to plan out a logical campaign for their prospects.
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Northport
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Sun Mar 11, 2018 9:43 pm

^agreed.
weeeeeeeee
BigDonOKC
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Sun Mar 11, 2018 10:11 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Do you mean the days when money earnings determined who got in the gate? That system had some serious flaws, like how a win by a two-year-old in a race with a boosted purse (think Delta Jackpot) would guarantee a place in the Derby, even if the two-year-old did not progress as a three-year-old.
I'm not saying the points system is perfect, but it generally means that a juvenile is not going to earn so many points that he doesn't even have to race in a sophomore prep. With the points spread over many races, gradually increasing through the spring, trainers have the chance to plan out a logical campaign for their prospects.


The problem is at the first of the year there is no point to run for 10 points when they can run for 100 one time an get in. :cry:
BaroqueAgain1
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Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:10 pm

IMHO, the POINT is that a win in the single, 100 point prep is not guaranteed. If connections were to gamble on that strategy, it would just take one stumble out of the gate to leave your Derby hopeful sitting back in the barn on the first Saturday in May. :oops:
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Treve
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:14 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:IMHO, the POINT is that a win in the single, 100 point prep is not guaranteed. If connections were to gamble on that strategy, it would just take one stumble out of the gate to leave your Derby hopeful sitting back in the barn on the first Saturday in May. :oops:
with the points distribution for the 100 points races though your horse doesn't even need to win. A place finish guarantees you'll get in. A show finish gives you good chances although doesn't guarantee.
You could have a combination of the two systems - earnings in non restricted 3yo stakes. The current system actually does allow a 2yo that doesn't move much forward to get in the gate, as there are a few juvenile points races.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Flanders
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 7:18 am

BigDonOKC wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Do you mean the days when money earnings determined who got in the gate? That system had some serious flaws, like how a win by a two-year-old in a race with a boosted purse (think Delta Jackpot) would guarantee a place in the Derby, even if the two-year-old did not progress as a three-year-old.
I'm not saying the points system is perfect, but it generally means that a juvenile is not going to earn so many points that he doesn't even have to race in a sophomore prep. With the points spread over many races, gradually increasing through the spring, trainers have the chance to plan out a logical campaign for their prospects.
The problem is at the first of the year there is no point to run for 10 points when they can run for 100 one time an get in. :cry:
If they win one of the 100 point races they would have gotten in with the previous system anyway because of the purses of those races. The same with a 2nd place finish. A 3rd place in those races though is a gamble with both systems.
Izvestia
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:01 am

Treve wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:IMHO, the POINT is that a win in the single, 100 point prep is not guaranteed. If connections were to gamble on that strategy, it would just take one stumble out of the gate to leave your Derby hopeful sitting back in the barn on the first Saturday in May. :oops:
with the points distribution for the 100 points races though your horse doesn't even need to win. A place finish guarantees you'll get in. A show finish gives you good chances although doesn't guarantee.
You could have a combination of the two systems - earnings in non restricted 3yo stakes. The current system actually does allow a 2yo that doesn't move much forward to get in the gate, as there are a few juvenile points races.
We’ve seen a lot less of those horses in the Derby since the point system came in.
BigDonOKC
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:19 am

Izvestia wrote:
Treve wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:IMHO, the POINT is that a win in the single, 100 point prep is not guaranteed. If connections were to gamble on that strategy, it would just take one stumble out of the gate to leave your Derby hopeful sitting back in the barn on the first Saturday in May. :oops:
with the points distribution for the 100 points races though your horse doesn't even need to win. A place finish guarantees you'll get in. A show finish gives you good chances although doesn't guarantee.
You could have a combination of the two systems - earnings in non restricted 3yo stakes. The current system actually does allow a 2yo that doesn't move much forward to get in the gate, as there are a few juvenile points races.
We’ve seen a lot less of those horses in the Derby since the point system came in.
The people who only play on derby day look at odds and play were most here watch the prep races from the first of the year and pay off running type the point system help the first time betters. when they ran off money you had to run early to build you money up now just wait till the 50 or 100 point races and get in.
Kennedy
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:51 pm

March 12, 2018

1. Bolt D’Oro (1)
2. Audible (2)
3. McKinzie (3)
4. Catholic Boy (4)
5. Good Magic (5)
6. Bravazo (8)
7. Flameaway (new)
8. Quip (new)
9. Instilled Regard (new)
10. Vino Rosso (9)

On the Radar: Instilled Regard, Promises Fulfilled, Mourinho, Noble Indy, Combatant, Justify, Mendelssohn, Nero

Dropped: Tiz Mischief (6), Untamed Domain (7), Free Drop Billy (10)


One of the things I like to do as a personal discipline is to try and keep getting better by picking up on areas that have historically been a knowledge gap or weakness. Last year I started my focus on trying to understand pace a little better. I’m sure I have a fractured understanding but I am increasingly convinced that pace, projections and closing fractions do contain clues to true ability and forward progress. I’m not expert on how to really calculate and then harness those clues but I’m giving it a shot.

I say that to preface my perspective on some of the racing action that took place this weekend which I think means that I’m taking a stand on some horses that seems non-sensical.

My interest in any of the Gotham runners has been permanently ended. I added Free Drop Billy to my list last week because I couldn’t find anyone interesting but it was against my better judgment and I think the Gotham confirmed that while he and Firenze Fire will likely have the points to be in the Derby they shouldn’t go. They’re not going get better with distance and there just isn’t any point unless the owners really want to walk over and soak in the aura.

Enticed may have won but from a 10f projection and closing fraction perspective he was actually worse in the Gotham than he was in the Holy Bull. I think he’s not a Derby horse, he won’t like the added ground and he’s the kind of horse who, if he runs, would never get his name mentioned and run 16th.

Despite the hype and the nice looking BSF I’m not on the Justify band wagon. It’s not the two lifetime starts and lack of experience at two years old. I just don’t think his two turn debut showed the kind of special ability that points to Derby success. His closing fraction was 13.4. That is unbelievably poor for an 8f race. I know he was being eased like crazy but good horses don’t come home that slow. I’m not falling for him based on the evidence that exists and I would most definitely play against him in a 9f prep.

Bolt D’Oro and McKinzie were great and from a Derby perspective I actually don’t care about the bumping, the DQ and all the controversy. At the end of the Day both horses confirmed their status as elite contenders. Personally I thought that there was nothing to pick at in a negative way for either horse but I still do have Bolt D’Oro as the better Derby candidate of the two. I just think that there is so much more in the tank and he’s a powerfully built horse that will go from strength to strength. McKinzie is all talent but somehow I feel he is less robust as a 10f horse. We’ve seen Derbies won on talent alone so I think along with Audible these are the three who are well above the rest.

I thought the TB Derby was another example of what to expect from this crop and why all the other contenders aside from my top 3 are so hard to nail down. I think they’re all a touch ordinary and each one can have their day. Quip ran a good race and did what he had to given the way the race unfolded. The pace was really slow so closers were always going to be up against it. Quip finished up like a decent horse but seems like he is probably second tier.

I think Flameaway was probably the top horse coming out of the TB Derby just because he was given no chance based on the pace of the race the trouble he had and the trip they ended up with. The first half was in :49 and he was in 4th place at that time. Even a final closing split of 12.2 wasn’t enough to get him there but you feel like he was probably the horse with the best future prospects. My biggest concern is that he is a bit slow on the speed scale. You know he’s got to do much better than that to compete in prime time.

I haven’t dropped Vino Rosso yet for two reasons. #1 There isn’t a big list of horses I like that are just waiting to knock him off. And #2 I think the trip and tactics screwed him up in the TB Derby and he could do better. The blinkers, the up close trip, the slow pace..it all seemed to combine to take him out of his game. I don’t know if he’s all that good but I feel like this crop could eventually play into the hands of one closer and maybe he’s that closer.

Look at all the preps, there has been very little passing in general and on the lead or near the lead has been the place to be almost every time. I have to think that eventually we’ll get a race that implodes and sets up for a closer. I’m not sure if Vino Rosso is that closer necessarily but he could be.
BigDonOKC
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:45 pm

Kennedy wrote:March 12, 2018

1. Bolt D’Oro (1)
2. Audible (2)
3. McKinzie (3)
4. Catholic Boy (4)
5. Good Magic (5)
6. Bravazo (8)
7. Flameaway (new)
8. Quip (new)
9. Instilled Regard (new)
10. Vino Rosso (9)

On the Radar: Instilled Regard, Promises Fulfilled, Mourinho, Noble Indy, Combatant, Justify, Mendelssohn, Nero

Dropped: Tiz Mischief (6), Untamed Domain (7), Free Drop Billy (10)


One of the things I like to do as a personal discipline is to try and keep getting better by picking up on areas that have historically been a knowledge gap or weakness. Last year I started my focus on trying to understand pace a little better. I’m sure I have a fractured understanding but I am increasingly convinced that pace, projections and closing fractions do contain clues to true ability and forward progress. I’m not expert on how to really calculate and then harness those clues but I’m giving it a shot.

I say that to preface my perspective on some of the racing action that took place this weekend which I think means that I’m taking a stand on some horses that seems non-sensical.

My interest in any of the Gotham runners has been permanently ended. I added Free Drop Billy to my list last week because I couldn’t find anyone interesting but it was against my better judgment and I think the Gotham confirmed that while he and Firenze Fire will likely have the points to be in the Derby they shouldn’t go. They’re not going get better with distance and there just isn’t any point unless the owners really want to walk over and soak in the aura.

Enticed may have won but from a 10f projection and closing fraction perspective he was actually worse in the Gotham than he was in the Holy Bull. I think he’s not a Derby horse, he won’t like the added ground and he’s the kind of horse who, if he runs, would never get his name mentioned and run 16th.

Despite the hype and the nice looking BSF I’m not on the Justify band wagon. It’s not the two lifetime starts and lack of experience at two years old. I just don’t think his two turn debut showed the kind of special ability that points to Derby success. His closing fraction was 13.4. That is unbelievably poor for an 8f race. I know he was being eased like crazy but good horses don’t come home that slow. I’m not falling for him based on the evidence that exists and I would most definitely play against him in a 9f prep.

Bolt D’Oro and McKinzie were great and from a Derby perspective I actually don’t care about the bumping, the DQ and all the controversy. At the end of the Day both horses confirmed their status as elite contenders. Personally I thought that there was nothing to pick at in a negative way for either horse but I still do have Bolt D’Oro as the better Derby candidate of the two. I just think that there is so much more in the tank and he’s a powerfully built horse that will go from strength to strength. McKinzie is all talent but somehow I feel he is less robust as a 10f horse. We’ve seen Derbies won on talent alone so I think along with Audible these are the three who are well above the rest.

I thought the TB Derby was another example of what to expect from this crop and why all the other contenders aside from my top 3 are so hard to nail down. I think they’re all a touch ordinary and each one can have their day. Quip ran a good race and did what he had to given the way the race unfolded. The pace was really slow so closers were always going to be up against it. Quip finished up like a decent horse but seems like he is probably second tier.

I think Flameaway was probably the top horse coming out of the TB Derby just because he was given no chance based on the pace of the race the trouble he had and the trip they ended up with. The first half was in :49 and he was in 4th place at that time. Even a final closing split of 12.2 wasn’t enough to get him there but you feel like he was probably the horse with the best future prospects. My biggest concern is that he is a bit slow on the speed scale. You know he’s got to do much better than that to compete in prime time.

I haven’t dropped Vino Rosso yet for two reasons. #1 There isn’t a big list of horses I like that are just waiting to knock him off. And #2 I think the trip and tactics screwed him up in the TB Derby and he could do better. The blinkers, the up close trip, the slow pace..it all seemed to combine to take him out of his game. I don’t know if he’s all that good but I feel like this crop could eventually play into the hands of one closer and maybe he’s that closer.

Look at all the preps, there has been very little passing in general and on the lead or near the lead has been the place to be almost every time. I have to think that eventually we’ll get a race that implodes and sets up for a closer. I’m not sure if Vino Rosso is that closer necessarily but he could be.

Kennedy It so nice to see someone who look at horses and tries to improve on prediction the outcome of a race. I hate to see you drop Free Drop Billy he is on my list to play in 3rd and you are right he cannot win and he will take 3rd if he get the right post. You said you are looking into pace I for one look at true time yards per second.
As a race predictor you should have rules to play by sample:
(1) Kentucky derby play horses who don’t give up ground. Exception you can forgive a horse for one bad race but not two.
(2) Kentucky derby always play a horse who has never been out of the money in 2nd or 3rd.
(3) In K>D> watch for 1 3/16 pole horse on top will be there in 2 weeks.
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Treve
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:40 pm

Izvestia wrote:
Treve wrote:
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:IMHO, the POINT is that a win in the single, 100 point prep is not guaranteed. If connections were to gamble on that strategy, it would just take one stumble out of the gate to leave your Derby hopeful sitting back in the barn on the first Saturday in May. :oops:
with the points distribution for the 100 points races though your horse doesn't even need to win. A place finish guarantees you'll get in. A show finish gives you good chances although doesn't guarantee.
You could have a combination of the two systems - earnings in non restricted 3yo stakes. The current system actually does allow a 2yo that doesn't move much forward to get in the gate, as there are a few juvenile points races.
We’ve seen a lot less of those horses in the Derby since the point system came in.
True, although on the other hand every single post time favourite has won the Derby since the point system was started. Most of those have also been ML faves. This is very much unprecedented. I also think most of not all have been front end horses. I suppose whether that's a good or a bad thing depends on perspective.
And ultimately every year there are horses who don't belong who end up in the gate.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
BigDonOKC
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:27 pm

A great horse can over come a stumble at the gate a bad trip a stll beat a good horse to the wire just ask curlin about the Belmont. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
BigDonOKC
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:30 pm

The best horse has not run yet . that is Audible run 18.35 yard a second ;)
BigDonOKC
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 8:50 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:The best horse has not run yet . that is Audible run 18.35 yard a second ;)

if he holds his speed he can run a 1:59.89 derby :roll:
sweettalk
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Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:19 pm

untamed domain needs to go back to grass.
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Starine
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Tue Mar 13, 2018 12:10 pm

I agree the big three consists of Bolt d'Oro, McKinzie and Audible at this point.

But as far as slight outsiders, I'm really keen on Quip and Bravazo. Both have great pedigrees for the distance and I think their recent closing splits are quite admirable.
BigDonOKC
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Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:13 pm

Starine wrote:I agree the big three consists of Bolt d'Oro, McKinzie and Audible at this point.

But as far as slight outsiders, I'm really keen on Quip and Bravazo. Both have great pedigrees for the distance and I think their recent closing splits are quite admirable.
I hope not Quip runs at 17.9 YAS slow Bravazo runs at 18.16 not quite average at 18.33

These are not for me. :shock:
BaroqueAgain1
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Tue Mar 13, 2018 1:57 pm

Trio Of U.S.-Based Colts Pointed To Meydan’s UAE Derby
Americans to join the fray this week include a member of ‘Team Gun Runner,' Winchell Thoroughbreds' Steve Asmussen-trained Reride. Like Gun Runner, a son of Candy Ride, the game colt has two consecutive stakes wins and impressively took the Mine That Bird Derby at Sunland Park last out in the desert of New Mexico.
Reride may be joined by fellow U.S.-based colts All Out Blitz and Machismo. The former is multiple graded stakes-placed with the latter just finished a respectable fourth in the Fountain of Youth (G2), a historically high-class Kentucky Derby prep over 1700m at Gulfstream Park.

Read more: https://www.paulickreport.com/news/trip ... uae-derby/

They all may be running for second, as Godolphin's Gold Town (Street Cry) has been dominating in the Carnival's UAE Derby preps. Too bad he's a gelding.
BigDonOKC
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Tue Mar 13, 2018 5:16 pm

stark wrote:Andy Serling
‏@andyserling

Firenze Fire ran a credible race, and is a very good horse, but given his trip and the race dynamics, he should have finished better. At the end of the day he is likely best up to one mile, particularly around one turn.
That a given 8-)
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