Derby Point Races 2018

thinair
Posts: 1615
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Thu Mar 08, 2018 5:15 pm

stark wrote:Track conditions.

I'm guessing TampaBay will be sunny, fast and firm.
Aqueduct will be cold and ???
Santa Anita chance of showers.

Will you change your picks based on the mud/sealed/frozen/fast/dry conditions?

It's virtually certain to be fast at Aqueduct. Some wet snow on Wednesday, but relatively windy since, and likely to be fast all weekend.
stark
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Location: SoCal

Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:33 pm

Whoa boy, its still a couple of days until its time to race!
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/971869139596988416
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Thu Mar 08, 2018 8:17 pm

:D 3-10-2018 POINT RACE ;)
Santa Anita Race 6
#1 Bolt d Oro Play to win
#4 McKinzie play for second
#2 Lombo play 3rd. and #8 Kanthaka
Tri ¼ with ¼ 2/8 with 2/8
Ex 1-4 $5.00
3-10-18 point race
Tampa Bay Downs race 11
#5 Flameaway to win
#8 World od trouble and #2 Tiz Mischief
Box 5-8-2 ex and tri
Aqueduct race 10
#5Firenze Fire to win
#8 Nine Route to run second
#6 Free Drop Billy to run 3rd
#9 Entice for 4th
EX 5 with 8
Tri and super 5-8-6/9
thinair
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Thu Mar 08, 2018 10:23 pm

Nine Route would need a scratch to be part of the octo-fecta.
Spahny
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Thu Mar 08, 2018 11:37 pm

stark wrote:Whoa boy, its still a couple of days until its time to race!
https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/971869139596988416
That's only 80 percent.

That is one fine looking colt, whatever the fraction.
stark
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Location: SoCal

Fri Mar 09, 2018 2:37 am

Thanks Don, I'm armed and ready to head to the cashier's line!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
tcw
Posts: 1080
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Fri Mar 09, 2018 3:20 am

Bolt is one very fine looking specimen of a racehorse. If it were based only on physical appearance, it would be difficult to choose between Bolt and Justify.
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
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Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:48 am

stark wrote:Thanks Don, I'm armed and ready to head to the cashier's line!
NO PROBLEM DON"T BET THE FARM ITS A HORSE RACE 8-)
BigDonOKC
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Fri Mar 09, 2018 1:21 pm

thinair wrote:Nine Route would need a scratch to be part of the octo-fecta.
:o we will see 8-) at 30/1 will pay a lot

I made my pick before the odd maker made his let see who right :roll:
BaroqueAgain1
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Fri Mar 09, 2018 3:39 pm

Mendelssohn won the Patton Stakes at Dundalk in good fashion. Stalked the leader, moved past in the stretch along the rail and also changed to his right lead, which Euro horses don't always do.
Catalina
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Fri Mar 09, 2018 3:51 pm

Sparrow Castle wrote:
stark wrote:
Sparrow Castle wrote:Jeremy Balan Verified account @BH_JBalan
27m27 minutes ago
Owner/trainer Mick Ruis says he will not run Bolt d'Oro in the San Felipe if the main track is sloppy. Next week's Rebel is Plan B.

“If you have a horse this good, and you don’t have to run on a sloppy track and have more options, wouldn’t you run for $900,000 on a fast track?"

Jeremy Balan
‏@BH_JBalan

For what it's worth, with rain possible this weekend, this was Bob Baffert's response to possibly running McKinzie on a wet track.

"Rain, sleet, or snow."
Jeremy Balan Verified account @BH_JBalan
41m41 minutes ago
Let's parse this a bit, because the reaction has been harsh. The Rebel's purse is $500,000 more than the San Felipe's. Would it stand to reason, or at least help explain the idea, that if you're going to run in mud, why not run for more money? And the Rebel might not be muddy.
If I had one good Derby prospect versus Baffert's multiple Derby prospects, I would seriously consider scratching my horse from the San Felipe and instead going to the Rebel. No point in running the Derby on San Felipe day.
Rebel.
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Treve
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Fri Mar 09, 2018 3:57 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Mendelssohn won the Patton Stakes at Dundalk in good fashion. Stalked the leader, moved past in the stretch along the rail and also changed to his right lead, which Euro horses don't always do.
Methinks O'Brien has been hard at work ;)
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
BaroqueAgain1
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Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:16 pm

I think he had the top three horses, so he was probably very busy in the saddling paddock. Methinks O'Brien could be o'so tired. :P :D
BaroqueAgain1
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Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:45 pm

Mendelssohn and the other two O'Brien colts from the Patton Stakes could be headed to the UAE Derby next.
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/trip ... and-dubai/
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Treve
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Fri Mar 09, 2018 4:59 pm

I have to say I'm somewhat surprised by that decision... it would seem more logical to me to send him for a final prep here. While O'Brien hasn't done terribly with the Dubai route in the past, he's never cracked the top 4 in the Derby with it either.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
BaroqueAgain1
Posts: 9541
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:31 pm

I agree. Maybe it's a case of 'I can't be in two places at the same time,' for O'Brien. If both Coolmore and the owner of Threeandfourpence really want to be in the UAE Derby, Mendelssohn may have to go along for the ride. :P
It's also possible that one of those other colts will really step up on the dirt and it will turn out that Beholder's little half-bro isn't the only one who ends up with enough points to get in the Derby gate.
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Treve
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Fri Mar 09, 2018 6:33 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:I agree. Maybe it's a case of 'I can't be in two places at the same time,' for O'Brien. If both Coolmore and the owner of Threeandfourpence really want to be in the UAE Derby, Mendelssohn may have to go along for the ride. :P
It's also possible that one of those other colts will really step up on the dirt and it will turn out that Beholder's little half-bro isn't the only one who ends up with enough points to get in the Derby gate.
I'm not to clear on where the UAE Derby figures on the road to the KY Derby (i.e. is it just counted in general with all the american races because it's such a high point offering, or does it have a reserved slot like the European slot and the Japanese slot(s)?)
From what I was reading if a European horse earns enough points in American preps, then it leaves the slot open for the next highest Euro points earner.
Wouldn't it make more sense then to send Mendelssohn here if the other two turn out to be talented enough to get in the Derby gates? Since he's at the top of the leaderboard for the Euros (points + unrestricted stakes earnings) O'Brien could end up being able to send 2 if not 3 horses to Kentucky.
But I mean... he holds the record for most G1s in a single season, and I don't (unless you wanna count Champion Jockey :D ) so he must have good reasons for his/the owners decisions :lol:
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
BaroqueAgain1
Posts: 9541
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2013 6:16 pm

Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:06 pm

I'm not to clear on where the UAE Derby figures on the road to the KY Derby (i.e. is it just counted in general with all the american races because it's such a high point offering, or does it have a reserved slot like the European slot and the Japanese slot(s)?)

I don't think it has a special, reserved-spot status like the European or Japanese races but, with 100 points to the winner, it doesn't really need that. The winner (and likely 2nd place, as well) gets in the gate with that many points.
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Sparrow Castle
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Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:53 pm

Jeremy Balan Verified account @BH_JBalan
5m5 minutes ago
So much for scratching Bolt d'Oro on an off track, I guess. Now Mick Ruis says he's running in the San Felipe, even on a wet track. I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

From @jcherwa's preview:
Image
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:01 am

so is he in or out :?: :?:
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