Derby Point Races 2018

Izvestia
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:41 am

I still scratch my head at GM being the champion 2-year-old... anyway, I would like to see Bolt come back impressively, but I have a feeling the best horses are coming from one barn. Rhymes with Gaffert.
stark
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:51 am

Izvestia wrote:I still scratch my head at GM being the champion 2-year-old... anyway, I would like to see Bolt come back impressively, but I have a feeling the best horses are coming from one barn. Rhymes with Gaffert.
Another rhyme that works.....West is Best when it comes to this stuff.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:13 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:This is what my excel program looks like
I wish you would've shared this with us before the race, the details make it all so much clearer!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:33 pm

stark wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:This is what my excel program looks like
I wish you would've shared this with us before the race, the details make it all so much clearer!

I did I posted my pick before the race, I posted the excel program to show how I come up with my pick and how I play them.

It takes one hour are so per race to run my program and set up my play. It had given me 6-4-2-10 when the 2 was scratched that left me the 6-4-X-10 I knew due to time since 6 ran he might need a race and he did , also I believed as I state that the 4 if he got on top would not give up ground and he got bested by the 10 but he keep second all the way to the wire, now there are some who will make fun of the time I put in a race , POINT IS I AM WORKING ON FINDING THE TOP 4 IN MAY WITH OUT A BOOK.



WILL POST NEXT WEEKS RACES EXCEL BEFORE THE RACE IF YOU WILL POST YOUR PICKS ALSO.
stark
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:47 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:
WILL POST NEXT WEEKS RACES EXCEL BEFORE THE RACE IF YOU WILL POST YOUR PICKS ALSO.
My picks?
They'll be the same as yours, duh!
I used to pay $25 for analysis from either Ragozin or Thorograph but this seems like a much better deal.
Thanks in advance.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:23 pm

stark wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:
WILL POST NEXT WEEKS RACES EXCEL BEFORE THE RACE IF YOU WILL POST YOUR PICKS ALSO.
My picks?
They'll be the same as yours, duh!
I used to pay $25 for analysis from either Ragozin or Thorograph but this seems like a much better deal.
Thanks in advance.


I have never bought a tip sheet because I don't need help losing my own money you should do the same, you might be surprise how good you might do. Look at several things real speed, given up ground and moving to wire. If a person does not ask why are how he learn nothing. the race last week end why did the #6 run behind the #4 it simple he has given up ground in 30% of his race and #4 has not. the other factor was the time off was a big factor.
stark
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:10 pm

BigDonOKC wrote: I have never bought a tip sheet because I don't need help losing my own money you should do the same,
I don't do tune-ups on my car.....can't be all that hard.
I don't repair my computer.....can't be all that hard.
I don't fix plumbing problems in my house.....can't be all that hard.
I'm willing to pay for expertise.

Why shouldn't I rely on somebody else's expertise when it comes to handicapping horse races?
There are guys out there, Jerry Brown at Thorograph, Jonathan Hardoon at Ragozin Sheets or Bruno deJulio doing the workouts reports, all of these guys live horse racing 7x24, they should be better than me doing it part time.
$25 seems like a cheap bargain for daily info imho. Even a guy like Andy Serling at NYRA who doesn't charge for his picks but is dedicated 60 hours a week to one circuit knows more about New York racing than I'll ever know. I will draw the line at TVG experts, not sure they are too good?

And now I've found a guy who measures feet per second in an excel spreadsheet, what's not to like?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Curtis
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:22 pm

I’ve always thrown darts at the Racing Form. Then along came the iPad. That was an expensive fix.
stark
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:30 pm

Curtis wrote:I’ve always thrown darts at the Racing Form. Then along came the iPad. That was an expensive fix.
Life was so simple when all you had to do was look for the X with a circle around it on a rainy day!
Change happens. But thanks to guys like L̶e̶s̶t̶e̶r̶ BigDon we're gonna get thru this.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:09 pm

stark wrote:
Curtis wrote:I’ve always thrown darts at the Racing Form. Then along came the iPad. That was an expensive fix.
Life was so simple when all you had to do was look for the X with a circle around it on a rainy day!
Change happens. But thanks to guys like L̶e̶s̶t̶e̶r̶ BigDon we're gonna get thru this.

So you are telling me you would pay $25.00 on each race I predict? TOTAL $75.00 NEXT WEEK END :roll:

here why I do not charge we all know that tip sheet give you 4 horses and if one come in they claim it as a winner I do not I will only call it as a winner if it is on top of my list. I have played straight tickets the 2016 derby was one of them. I do not like to have some one take what I say and bet their money on it if they can open the door of their house and throw their betting money to the wind. Not one person has ask why I thought the 4 would best the 6 even though I believe I have all ready covered it. :shock:
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Curtis
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 8:35 pm

BigDonOKC wrote: I have played straight tickets the 2016 derby was one of them.
So you really had Nyquist? Congratulations! He was tough to find.....musta' been while the iPad was on the fritz.
stark
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:15 pm

Curtis wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote: I have played straight tickets the 2016 derby was one of them.
So you really had Nyquist? Congratulations! He was tough to find.....musta' been while the iPad was on the fritz.
Don,
I get confused with straight tickets, partial wheels and boxes.
For example, in the Florida race it sounded like you said to bet 4/6 with 4/6 with 10/8 with 10/8 and to also bet a straight 4-6-10-8 super. But then in retrospect it sounds like you hit the 10-4-6 trifecta for $254 per $1 with two favorites in the mix, congrats....nice hit!

Curtis,
West Coast Speed always gets a couple of extra points in the formula!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 9:28 pm

stark wrote:
Curtis wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote: I have played straight tickets the 2016 derby was one of them.
So you really had Nyquist? Congratulations! He was tough to find.....musta' been while the iPad was on the fritz.
Don,
I get confused with straight tickets, partial wheels and boxes.
For example, in the Florida race it sounded like you said to bet 4/6 with 4/6 with 10/8 with 10/8 and to also bet a straight 4-6-10-8 super. But then in retrospect it sounds like you hit the 10-4-6 trifecta for $254 per $1 with two favorites in the mix, congrats....nice hit!

Curtis,
West Coast Speed always gets a couple of extra points in the formula!

my pick was 4 with 6 with 2 with 10 when the2 was out all I had was 4-6-10 I put the 8 in because he was next in line.

I I box 4-6-10 ex and tri then play a $1.00 super 4/6-4/6-10/8-10/8 it was no good. again I never said I had winner on top.
BigDonOKC
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:07 pm

Curtis wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote: I have played straight tickets the 2016 derby was one of them.
So you really had Nyquist? Congratulations! He was tough to find.....musta' been while the iPad was on the fritz.
it took a lot of work and paid off for a straight $20.00 ex tri and sup. total on these 3 ticket cost $60.00 they only paid back about $2800.00
stark
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:15 pm

Don,
Can you please post your picks here on Friday?
I think I'm leaving early for Santa Anita on Saturday, going to morning workouts for the free coffee before the racing day starts.

Thanks, and good luck!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:18 am

stark wrote:Don,
Can you please post your picks here on Friday?
I think I'm leaving early for Santa Anita on Saturday, going to morning workouts for the free coffee before the racing day starts.

Thanks, and good luck!
Stark are you from California, if so do you go to Del Mar and know the man who run the track Joe if so there is a possible you might know OSO- Kate and Connie they are related.
I will run my program as soon as the PP come out and post them as soon as possible Friday by the latest. c
You always need to check post.
stark
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Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:10 am

BigDonOKC wrote: Stark are you from California, if so do you go to Del Mar and know the man who run the track Joe if so there is a possible you might know OSO- Kate and Connie they are related.
Thanks Don.
I don't know Joe Harper personally but I think Curtis and Lester are good friends of his, I think they call him Jake, will wait for them to check in.
I don't know a lot of employees names, just recognize them because they've been there for the past 37 years doing the same job every day, the guy with the greasy black hair in valet parking, the guy with a patch over his eye serving cocktails, the lady serving up carved sandwiches who took over the stand from her mom, and of course John Shear at the paddock walking ring, he's been there the longest as he turned 97 this year!!!
http://www.santaanita.com/press-release ... p62fejwbIU
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BaroqueAgain1
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Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:02 pm

Gronkowski won the weather-delayed Derby points race at Kempton, a race that TVG showed this morning. He's a big, good-looking colt with a long stride, although still a bit green. While he may be by Lonhro, a turf runner/sire, he is out of a Lookin At Lucky mare.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/news/gr ... win/322287

Twenty points will probably not be enough to get in the gate, so I'm curious to see where his connections run him next. UAE Derby?
stark
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Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:09 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote: Twenty points will probably not be enough to get in the gate, so I'm curious to see where his connections run him next. UAE Derby?
If they really want to have an international flavor to the Derby, some of those races should be win and you're in type qualifiers.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Wed Mar 07, 2018 5:14 pm

50 points to the winner....

A field of 11 has been set for the G2, $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby, to be run here Saturday for the 38th time. Here is the lineup with post positions, jockeys, and the track morning line for the 1 1/16-mile race:

1-Arazi Like Move, S.Spieth, 30-1

2-Tiz Mischief, J.Rosario, 8-1

3-Vino Rosso, J.Velazquez, 4-1

4-Grandpa Knows Best, J.Leparoux, 20-1

5-Flameaway, J.Lezcano, 3-1

6-Enticed, A.Gallardo, 6-1 *cross entered @ Gotham

7-Free Drop Billy, no rider, 7-2 *cross entered @ Gotham

8-World of Trouble, I.OrtizJr., 5-1

9-Untamed Domain, J.Ortiz, 6-1

10-Quip, F.Geroux, 15-1

11-Caloric, no rider, 50-1
Last edited by stark on Wed Mar 07, 2018 7:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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