Derby Point Races 2018

thinair
Posts: 1615
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:46 pm

Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:57 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:if strike power breaks on top they will have to run him down if they can

In other words, if the horse with the fastest early speed doesn't get left, he will have the lead, which means the horses behind him will have to pass him in order to win ( or finish ahead of him ). Thanks.
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:07 pm

thinair wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:if strike power breaks on top they will have to run him down if they can

In other words, if the horse with the fastest early speed doesn't get left, he will have the lead, which means the horses behind him will have to pass him in order to win ( or finish ahead of him ). Thanks.

Don't thank me yet he has to prove he has heart. 4-field -2- 6 is a safe play. I miss second some times. I see it more like 4-6-2-10 but the way they have been running this year could be any of these.
thinair
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Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:46 pm

Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:37 pm

Strike Power would need Good Magic to fail to show up ( unlikely ) and Free Drop Billy to scratch ( apparently possible ) to have any chance. It seems highly unlikely he will be effective going long and there are two other significant speeds in the race, though they did draw the outside two posts.
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
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Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:28 pm

thinair wrote:Strike Power would need Good Magic to fail to show up ( unlikely ) and Free Drop Billy to scratch ( apparently possible ) to have any chance. It seems highly unlikely he will be effective going long and there are two other significant speeds in the race, though they did draw the outside two posts.
Good Magic is a good horse but he might need a race because he been off since November--- will see.
I do like Strike power blood line. 8-)
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:27 pm

With Free drop billy no longer a live runner bet has changed 6/4 with 6/4 with 10/8 with 10/8

straight pick 4-6-10-8



watch them run 8-) 8-)
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
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Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:37 pm

ran 10-4-6-9 Like to point out the winner had 2 point moved to second on the list the w had no point he got 20 so now he is 7th on the list and 6 got 10 point and now he has 34 and is 3rd on the list/

the tri payed well.
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:58 am

BigDonOKC wrote:With Free drop billy no longer a live runner bet has changed 6/4 with 6/4 with 10/8 with 10/8

straight pick 4-6-10-8



watch them run 8-) 8-)
thank god for the box---

mist the super by 1
had ex and tri on box
nice pay day
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:04 pm

This is what my excel program looks like




gulfstream 0 DATE 3/3/1018 ` 14 TYPE OF RACE g2 DISTANCE 43420
HORSE # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1R-Speed 93 99 75 98 102 105 94 91 99 90 0 0 0 0
Average Speed 89 87 81 101 89 98 80 89 88 90 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
1RP -1 2 12 -1 -1 -1 2 3 0.10 3 0 0 0 0
Average Place 1.3 3.3 5.0 -1.0 2.0 1.0 4.7 1.3 2.4 0.3 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
1R LO -2.3 5.5 15.0 -2.8 -0.1 -4.3 2.8 2.5 -11.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Average LO 0.4 10.2 5.3 -5.4 1.0 -0.9 11.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Win % 33% 33% 25% 100% 33% 33% 40% 33% 25% 67% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Show% 100% 83% 75% 100% 83% 100% 60% 100% 50% 100% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
inmoney% 200% 200% 150% 300% 183% 233% 160% 200% 100% 233% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Money 46 495 57 148 103 1217 122 73 34 89 0 0 0 0
money Per race 15 83 14 74 17 406 24 24 9 30 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SYESTEM 133 192 83 243 126 570 114 136 111 163 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SYSTEM W.MONEY 179 687 140 391 229 1787 236 209 145 252 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
old system 5 5 0 12 3 12 3 4 2 8
HORSE # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
TOP 5
1R-Speed 6 5 2…9 4 SPEED 6 5 4
Average Speed 4 6 10 1..5..8 4….6
1RP 1..4..5..6 9 PLACE 4 6 1 6..4
Average Place 4 10 6 1….8 6..4
1R LO 9 6 4 1 5 LENGTH 6 4 9 6…4
Average LO 4 6 10 8 9 4
Win % 4 10 7 W% 4 10 7
Show% 1..4..6.. ..8..10 S % 1..4..6 ..8..10 4''10
inmoney% 4 10,,,6 IM 4 10…6 OFF POST
Money 6 2 4 7 5 RM 6 2 4 6..2..4
money Per race 6 2 4 10 S-SWM 6.. 2…..4 10 6.2.4.10
SYESTEM 6 4 2 10 SWM-OS 6 4 2 10 6…24
SYSTEM W.MONEY 6 2 4 10 7 S-SWM-OS 6…4 10 1..2
old system 6;;;4 10 1…2 PICK 4 6 10
RAN 10 4 6 9
Kennedy
Posts: 1034
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:09 am

thinair wrote:Given that Mask isn't running in the Derby, you can probably drop him from your top ten.
Yeah, I only saw that article posted the same day as I made my list...but of course after my list. It's a shame because I certainly have high hopes for him.

I'll get around to dropping him.
Kennedy
Posts: 1034
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:28 am

March 5, 2018

1. Bolt D’Oro (1)
2. Audible (2)
3. McKinzie (4)
4. Catholic Boy (6)
5. Good Magic (3)
6. Tiz Mischief (7)
7. Untamed Domain (8)
8. Bravazo (9)
9. Vino Rosso (10)
10. Free Drop Billy (new)

On the Radar: Instilled Regard, Justify, Promises Fulfilled, Mourinho, Noble Indy, Combatant, Mendelssohn, Firenze Fire, The Tabulator, Hollywood Star, Enticed, Nero

Dropped: Mask (5)


What a difference a race makes. All along it seemed like we were just watching some dress rehearsal’s but when the real quality returned to the races we’d see some proper Derby level performances. Not so, and in a little less that two minutes we saw Good Magic go from a lock to hit the Derby exacta to a horse that many people may not even trust to win a prep race.

Personally I’m not panicking or completely abandoning ship but a read through his PP’s certainly make the BC Juvenile look like an aberration. He wasn’t great in the FOY and has now lost ground in the stretch in 3 of his 4 lifetime starts. You know he has a good race in his locker and I do think he’ll have days that work more in his favor than this one did but I don’t think he’s the class of the crop.
The more the preps unfold the more you wonder if there is really a proper upper crust of class among this group or if all of them have a chance to beat each other on their day. I guess we’ll see how Bolt D’Oro looks in his return but the rest certainly seem towards the ordinary side.

I think Promises Fulfilled race a good race in the FOY but this wasn’t a Derby winning performance. Not unless he somehow gets away with a half in :48 on the first Saturday in May. It doesn’t happen often and in fact has not happened since his father Shackleford set the Derby pace and finished 4th in 2011. That was the only time the Derby pace was :48+ for the first half this century. I think he’s okay and may work his way into my top 10 eventually but I think a win in a slow pace race at 8.5f race at GP will likely stand as his best accomplishments of the first half of the year.

I find myself actually reaching a little just to fill out my top 10. I’ve had Free Drop Billy hanging around despite not believing in his ability at 10f. Instilled Regard seems to have flatlined in his progression, Justify is a bit of a risk despite the gaudy figure. I don’t believe in Solomini at all, I think he’s not nearly as good as his record looks. So who is left? For now I’m just going to go with Free Drop Billy. I do believe that he is good enough to win the Gotham and that would punch his Derby ticket so maybe that’s enough of a reason?
Izvestia
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Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 7:16 am

Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:41 am

I still scratch my head at GM being the champion 2-year-old... anyway, I would like to see Bolt come back impressively, but I have a feeling the best horses are coming from one barn. Rhymes with Gaffert.
stark
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:51 am

Izvestia wrote:I still scratch my head at GM being the champion 2-year-old... anyway, I would like to see Bolt come back impressively, but I have a feeling the best horses are coming from one barn. Rhymes with Gaffert.
Another rhyme that works.....West is Best when it comes to this stuff.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Location: SoCal

Mon Mar 05, 2018 12:13 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:This is what my excel program looks like
I wish you would've shared this with us before the race, the details make it all so much clearer!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Mon Mar 05, 2018 1:33 pm

stark wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:This is what my excel program looks like
I wish you would've shared this with us before the race, the details make it all so much clearer!

I did I posted my pick before the race, I posted the excel program to show how I come up with my pick and how I play them.

It takes one hour are so per race to run my program and set up my play. It had given me 6-4-2-10 when the 2 was scratched that left me the 6-4-X-10 I knew due to time since 6 ran he might need a race and he did , also I believed as I state that the 4 if he got on top would not give up ground and he got bested by the 10 but he keep second all the way to the wire, now there are some who will make fun of the time I put in a race , POINT IS I AM WORKING ON FINDING THE TOP 4 IN MAY WITH OUT A BOOK.



WILL POST NEXT WEEKS RACES EXCEL BEFORE THE RACE IF YOU WILL POST YOUR PICKS ALSO.
stark
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 3:47 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:
WILL POST NEXT WEEKS RACES EXCEL BEFORE THE RACE IF YOU WILL POST YOUR PICKS ALSO.
My picks?
They'll be the same as yours, duh!
I used to pay $25 for analysis from either Ragozin or Thorograph but this seems like a much better deal.
Thanks in advance.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:23 pm

stark wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:
WILL POST NEXT WEEKS RACES EXCEL BEFORE THE RACE IF YOU WILL POST YOUR PICKS ALSO.
My picks?
They'll be the same as yours, duh!
I used to pay $25 for analysis from either Ragozin or Thorograph but this seems like a much better deal.
Thanks in advance.


I have never bought a tip sheet because I don't need help losing my own money you should do the same, you might be surprise how good you might do. Look at several things real speed, given up ground and moving to wire. If a person does not ask why are how he learn nothing. the race last week end why did the #6 run behind the #4 it simple he has given up ground in 30% of his race and #4 has not. the other factor was the time off was a big factor.
stark
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:10 pm

BigDonOKC wrote: I have never bought a tip sheet because I don't need help losing my own money you should do the same,
I don't do tune-ups on my car.....can't be all that hard.
I don't repair my computer.....can't be all that hard.
I don't fix plumbing problems in my house.....can't be all that hard.
I'm willing to pay for expertise.

Why shouldn't I rely on somebody else's expertise when it comes to handicapping horse races?
There are guys out there, Jerry Brown at Thorograph, Jonathan Hardoon at Ragozin Sheets or Bruno deJulio doing the workouts reports, all of these guys live horse racing 7x24, they should be better than me doing it part time.
$25 seems like a cheap bargain for daily info imho. Even a guy like Andy Serling at NYRA who doesn't charge for his picks but is dedicated 60 hours a week to one circuit knows more about New York racing than I'll ever know. I will draw the line at TVG experts, not sure they are too good?

And now I've found a guy who measures feet per second in an excel spreadsheet, what's not to like?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Curtis
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:22 pm

I’ve always thrown darts at the Racing Form. Then along came the iPad. That was an expensive fix.
stark
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Mon Mar 05, 2018 6:30 pm

Curtis wrote:I’ve always thrown darts at the Racing Form. Then along came the iPad. That was an expensive fix.
Life was so simple when all you had to do was look for the X with a circle around it on a rainy day!
Change happens. But thanks to guys like L̶e̶s̶t̶e̶r̶ BigDon we're gonna get thru this.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
Posts: 297
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:09 pm

stark wrote:
Curtis wrote:I’ve always thrown darts at the Racing Form. Then along came the iPad. That was an expensive fix.
Life was so simple when all you had to do was look for the X with a circle around it on a rainy day!
Change happens. But thanks to guys like L̶e̶s̶t̶e̶r̶ BigDon we're gonna get thru this.

So you are telling me you would pay $25.00 on each race I predict? TOTAL $75.00 NEXT WEEK END :roll:

here why I do not charge we all know that tip sheet give you 4 horses and if one come in they claim it as a winner I do not I will only call it as a winner if it is on top of my list. I have played straight tickets the 2016 derby was one of them. I do not like to have some one take what I say and bet their money on it if they can open the door of their house and throw their betting money to the wind. Not one person has ask why I thought the 4 would best the 6 even though I believe I have all ready covered it. :shock:
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