Derby Point Races 2018

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby thinair » Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:57 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:if strike power breaks on top they will have to run him down if they can



In other words, if the horse with the fastest early speed doesn't get left, he will have the lead, which means the horses behind him will have to pass him in order to win ( or finish ahead of him ). Thanks.
thinair
 
Posts: 1611
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:46 pm

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:07 pm

thinair wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:if strike power breaks on top they will have to run him down if they can



In other words, if the horse with the fastest early speed doesn't get left, he will have the lead, which means the horses behind him will have to pass him in order to win ( or finish ahead of him ). Thanks.



Don't thank me yet he has to prove he has heart. 4-field -2- 6 is a safe play. I miss second some times. I see it more like 4-6-2-10 but the way they have been running this year could be any of these.
BigDonOKC
 
Posts: 268
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby thinair » Fri Mar 02, 2018 8:37 pm

Strike Power would need Good Magic to fail to show up ( unlikely ) and Free Drop Billy to scratch ( apparently possible ) to have any chance. It seems highly unlikely he will be effective going long and there are two other significant speeds in the race, though they did draw the outside two posts.
thinair
 
Posts: 1611
Joined: Mon Sep 16, 2013 1:46 pm

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Fri Mar 02, 2018 10:28 pm

thinair wrote:Strike Power would need Good Magic to fail to show up ( unlikely ) and Free Drop Billy to scratch ( apparently possible ) to have any chance. It seems highly unlikely he will be effective going long and there are two other significant speeds in the race, though they did draw the outside two posts.


Good Magic is a good horse but he might need a race because he been off since November--- will see.
I do like Strike power blood line. 8-)
BigDonOKC
 
Posts: 268
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Sat Mar 03, 2018 12:27 pm

With Free drop billy no longer a live runner bet has changed 6/4 with 6/4 with 10/8 with 10/8

straight pick 4-6-10-8



watch them run 8-) 8-)
BigDonOKC
 
Posts: 268
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:37 pm

ran 10-4-6-9 Like to point out the winner had 2 point moved to second on the list the w had no point he got 20 so now he is 7th on the list and 6 got 10 point and now he has 34 and is 3rd on the list/

the tri payed well.
BigDonOKC
 
Posts: 268
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:58 am

BigDonOKC wrote:With Free drop billy no longer a live runner bet has changed 6/4 with 6/4 with 10/8 with 10/8

straight pick 4-6-10-8



watch them run 8-) 8-)

thank god for the box---

mist the super by 1
had ex and tri on box
nice pay day
BigDonOKC
 
Posts: 268
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Sun Mar 04, 2018 7:04 pm

This is what my excel program looks like




gulfstream 0 DATE 3/3/1018 ` 14 TYPE OF RACE g2 DISTANCE 43420
HORSE # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
1R-Speed 93 99 75 98 102 105 94 91 99 90 0 0 0 0
Average Speed 89 87 81 101 89 98 80 89 88 90 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
1RP -1 2 12 -1 -1 -1 2 3 0.10 3 0 0 0 0
Average Place 1.3 3.3 5.0 -1.0 2.0 1.0 4.7 1.3 2.4 0.3 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
1R LO -2.3 5.5 15.0 -2.8 -0.1 -4.3 2.8 2.5 -11.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Average LO 0.4 10.2 5.3 -5.4 1.0 -0.9 11.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Win % 33% 33% 25% 100% 33% 33% 40% 33% 25% 67% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Show% 100% 83% 75% 100% 83% 100% 60% 100% 50% 100% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
inmoney% 200% 200% 150% 300% 183% 233% 160% 200% 100% 233% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
Money 46 495 57 148 103 1217 122 73 34 89 0 0 0 0
money Per race 15 83 14 74 17 406 24 24 9 30 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SYESTEM 133 192 83 243 126 570 114 136 111 163 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
SYSTEM W.MONEY 179 687 140 391 229 1787 236 209 145 252 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
old system 5 5 0 12 3 12 3 4 2 8
HORSE # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
TOP 5
1R-Speed 6 5 2…9 4 SPEED 6 5 4
Average Speed 4 6 10 1..5..8 4….6
1RP 1..4..5..6 9 PLACE 4 6 1 6..4
Average Place 4 10 6 1….8 6..4
1R LO 9 6 4 1 5 LENGTH 6 4 9 6…4
Average LO 4 6 10 8 9 4
Win % 4 10 7 W% 4 10 7
Show% 1..4..6.. ..8..10 S % 1..4..6 ..8..10 4''10
inmoney% 4 10,,,6 IM 4 10…6 OFF POST
Money 6 2 4 7 5 RM 6 2 4 6..2..4
money Per race 6 2 4 10 S-SWM 6.. 2…..4 10 6.2.4.10
SYESTEM 6 4 2 10 SWM-OS 6 4 2 10 6…24
SYSTEM W.MONEY 6 2 4 10 7 S-SWM-OS 6…4 10 1..2
old system 6;;;4 10 1…2 PICK 4 6 10
RAN 10 4 6 9
BigDonOKC
 
Posts: 268
Joined: Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:11 am

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby Kennedy » Mon Mar 05, 2018 10:09 am

thinair wrote:Given that Mask isn't running in the Derby, you can probably drop him from your top ten.


Yeah, I only saw that article posted the same day as I made my list...but of course after my list. It's a shame because I certainly have high hopes for him.

I'll get around to dropping him.
Kennedy
 
Posts: 1025
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby Kennedy » Mon Mar 05, 2018 11:28 am

March 5, 2018

1. Bolt D’Oro (1)
2. Audible (2)
3. McKinzie (4)
4. Catholic Boy (6)
5. Good Magic (3)
6. Tiz Mischief (7)
7. Untamed Domain (8)
8. Bravazo (9)
9. Vino Rosso (10)
10. Free Drop Billy (new)

On the Radar: Instilled Regard, Justify, Promises Fulfilled, Mourinho, Noble Indy, Combatant, Mendelssohn, Firenze Fire, The Tabulator, Hollywood Star, Enticed, Nero

Dropped: Mask (5)


What a difference a race makes. All along it seemed like we were just watching some dress rehearsal’s but when the real quality returned to the races we’d see some proper Derby level performances. Not so, and in a little less that two minutes we saw Good Magic go from a lock to hit the Derby exacta to a horse that many people may not even trust to win a prep race.

Personally I’m not panicking or completely abandoning ship but a read through his PP’s certainly make the BC Juvenile look like an aberration. He wasn’t great in the FOY and has now lost ground in the stretch in 3 of his 4 lifetime starts. You know he has a good race in his locker and I do think he’ll have days that work more in his favor than this one did but I don’t think he’s the class of the crop.
The more the preps unfold the more you wonder if there is really a proper upper crust of class among this group or if all of them have a chance to beat each other on their day. I guess we’ll see how Bolt D’Oro looks in his return but the rest certainly seem towards the ordinary side.

I think Promises Fulfilled race a good race in the FOY but this wasn’t a Derby winning performance. Not unless he somehow gets away with a half in :48 on the first Saturday in May. It doesn’t happen often and in fact has not happened since his father Shackleford set the Derby pace and finished 4th in 2011. That was the only time the Derby pace was :48+ for the first half this century. I think he’s okay and may work his way into my top 10 eventually but I think a win in a slow pace race at 8.5f race at GP will likely stand as his best accomplishments of the first half of the year.

I find myself actually reaching a little just to fill out my top 10. I’ve had Free Drop Billy hanging around despite not believing in his ability at 10f. Instilled Regard seems to have flatlined in his progression, Justify is a bit of a risk despite the gaudy figure. I don’t believe in Solomini at all, I think he’s not nearly as good as his record looks. So who is left? For now I’m just going to go with Free Drop Billy. I do believe that he is good enough to win the Gotham and that would punch his Derby ticket so maybe that’s enough of a reason?
Kennedy
 
Posts: 1025
Joined: Thu Sep 12, 2013 9:58 pm

PreviousNext

Return to Racing

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Point Given and 13 guests