Derby Point Races 2018

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stark
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:50 am

How about a committee without bias to make it an Invitational?

Something like John Asher, Andy Serling and Jay Privman.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
sweettalk
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:09 am

i honestly liked the graded stakes earnings qualifier, didn't see an issue with it. whichever way they do it, the bottom 5 - 7 earners are gonna be horses that ran in the money/points just well enough to squeak in and will have no impact* other than to hinder the legit contenders *shrug*

*-a blanket statement, if anyone knows of a horse that barely made it in and made a fantastic run, do chime in. i love stats like that =)
middleground
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:27 am

stark wrote:How about a committee without bias to make it an Invitational?

Something like John Asher, Andy Serling and Jay Privman.
First 12 horses chosen on some objective criteria, and then the select committee can, if they so desire, choose up to 6 more horses.

Although the Aintree option does sounds a lot more exciting...
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Treve
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:51 pm

Bring back the old timey heat races :lol:
top 10 finishers get to run in the next heat, bottom 10 have to yield their spots to all the AE horses. :lol:
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Treve
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 1:08 pm

sweettalk wrote:i honestly liked the graded stakes earnings qualifier, didn't see an issue with it. whichever way they do it, the bottom 5 - 7 earners are gonna be horses that ran in the money/points just well enough to squeak in and will have no impact* other than to hinder the legit contenders *shrug*

*-a blanket statement, if anyone knows of a horse that barely made it in and made a fantastic run, do chime in. i love stats like that =)
Unfortunately it seems like no one bothered to compile the qualifying stakes earnings for the contenders of past KDs. But I think it speaks volumes that Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000 was the first betting favourite to win since Spectacular Bid in 1979. Also even just looking back to last decade there were some compared to now pretty fantastic payouts. Monarchos paid 23$ to win, War Emblem paid 43$ to win. Funny Cide? 27$ to win. Animal Kingdom, 43$. IHA 32$. Famously, Giacomo - 102$ to win...and Mine That Bird 103$ win... I believe he might count as one who barely made it in and ran well :)

Fast forward to the points era - there hasn't been a winner that paid over 15$ to win, and the highest payout was 12.80$ on Orb. It's also been now 5 years in a row that the betting favourite has won which hasn't happened since the 1800s. It's a combo of factors I'm sure but interesting nonetheless.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Curtis
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 3:47 pm

Northport wrote:I like the point system. And sorry, but splitting any country's preeminent classic race, let alone the KY Derby, because too many hammerheads with a three year old colt who ran 7th in the Remsen want an owner's box on the big day, is just... silly. It's literally called, "The most exciting two minutes in sports" for a reason.

If you think connections like Ramsey, Paolucci, etc. are going to listen to their "heart of hearts" on Derby day and not run their no hopers? Ramsey lives to win the Derby and Paolucci tries to enter maidens in Breeder's Cup races.

While we're at it, let's just let all 40 start in one race, over the National Course at Aintree... only 10 will cross the line with their jockeys :lol:
Didn't a maiden win a Breeder's Cup race, just last November? What silly placement that was. The race may be called the Most exciting two minutes in sports (Can I call the Longacres Mile the most exciting approximately minute and a half in sports, and would that make it so?) but that doesn't mean it needs to be limited to once a year as nothing in that trite moniker suggests such. The race ran 100 times without restrictions and was never split once. In 1974, the 100th running, 23 made the gate (the '73 Remsen must have been some race, as it was either split into several divisions or a lot of horses dead heated for 7th) and Kentuckians were horrified at the notion that the race may need to someday be split so the graded earnings restriction was enacted. What they didn't take into account was that many horse people wanted to have the winner of the Centennial Derby in their barn and it was one of the most open, mediocre crops in the last 50 years, thus an anomaly. As an aside once since 1974 has the Derby had more than 20 make the gate, I was there it was chaotic, bonus points if you can name the year and the circumstance. I don't like the point system because it dictates what horse people have to do with their horses. Keith Desormeaux is right. He knows his horse and wants to run once, probably a month from now and then train up to the race, but because of the points system he either has to run twice, in certain races, and risk his horse being over the top or roll the dice, run once, and hope the horse doesn't have a bad trip or stumble and Kent fall off.
aethervox
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 4:09 pm

Curtis wrote:As an aside once since 1974 has the Derby had more than 20 make the gate, I was there it was chaotic, bonus points if you can name the year and the circumstance.
I know it was in 1981, 22 horses entered, 21 ran; Pleasant Colony won. Not sure what the circumstances were, though.
middleground
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 6:42 pm

aethervox wrote:
Curtis wrote:As an aside once since 1974 has the Derby had more than 20 make the gate, I was there it was chaotic, bonus points if you can name the year and the circumstance.
I know it was in 1981, 22 horses entered, 21 ran; Pleasant Colony won. Not sure what the circumstances were, though.
Wasn't there a court order that allowed more than 20 horses to run? Or was that the another year?
BigDonOKC
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:32 pm

I know they had over 20 one year - an 4 of them belong to ZEDO
BaroqueAgain1
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 7:46 pm

Who is ZEDO? :?
BigDonOKC
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 8:08 pm

:D
BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Who is ZEDO? :?

I call him that after he tried to win derby by numbers. He won the 1994 and 1991 derby if that helps.



IF not N. Zito :roll: :roll:
stark
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:16 pm

Image
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 9:25 pm

stark wrote:Image


it's a Jersey thing
:lol: :lol:
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Curtis
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:23 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:
stark wrote:Image


it's a Jersey thing
:lol: :lol:
Don I’m just giving you a hard time, but if you’re not Lester, you’re his brudder from another mudder.
BigDonOKC
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Thu Feb 22, 2018 10:47 pm

Curtis wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:
stark wrote:Image


it's a Jersey thing
:lol: :lol:
Don I’m just giving you a hard time, but if you’re not Lester, you’re his brudder from another mudder.[/quote


Is that really your picture like you gray hair
BigDonOKC
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Thu Mar 01, 2018 10:27 am

The Fountain Of youth the start of the big point races - the point are 50-20-10-5.
this race has the possible of putting 4 horses in top 5 - are 4 horse in top 20.
# 6 good Magic is all read there with 24 point need not to be in top 4
# 2 need only to run second or 3rd to have over 20 point
all other need to win or run second to get in after all the top 5 goes down to 20 points.

for me it ;ooks like 6-4-2-10 8-) 8-)
BigDonOKC
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Fri Mar 02, 2018 12:08 pm

if strike power breaks on top they will have to run him down if they can
stark
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Fri Mar 02, 2018 3:11 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:if strike power breaks on top they will have to run him down if they can
?
Any idea about track condition for the FOY?
A little rain this afternoon, sunny tomorrow?
Trackman gonna make it souped up, rock hard favoring frontrunners?
Or?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Kennedy
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Fri Mar 02, 2018 4:28 pm

March

1. Bolt D’Oro (1)
2. Audible (2)
3. Good Magic (3)
4. McKinzie (4)
5. Mask (8)
6. Catholic Boy (new)
7. Tiz Mischief (9)
8. Untamed Domain (10)
9. Bravazo (new)
10. Vino Rosso (new)

On the Radar: Free Drop Billy, Instilled Regard, Justify, Mourinho, Combatant, Mendelssohn, Firenze Fire, The Tabulator, Hollywood Star, Enticed, Nero

Dropped: Mourinho (5), Principe Guilherme (6), Combatant (7)


This list will likely look less valid after the Fountain of Youth since I think it’s likely that someone will step up and look useful against Good Magic but if I have time I might try to do weekly lists in March.

I was definitely most shocked by the development of Bravazo. Lukas has a spotty recent history of getting horses to the Derby in one piece but I am really impressed with his last two races and how he really dug in and got his head in front. He has enough speed to be tactically placed and his overall progression has been positive. I think he definitely needs to get better but with a spot in the gate sealed up it’ll be interesting to see if Lukas goes with a March and April prep for him or just one more race. Interesting that in both his recent wins he made a threatening move to the leader backed off a little then drove past them just in time for the wire. In both gallop outs his defeated foes surged back in front. Makes me think he is a gamer who likes to battle but also is inclined to do what he has to and not much more. There is a general feeling that Sporting Chance is the one to follow from this barn but I actually prefer Bravazo.

I like the visual impression made by both Catholic Boy and Vino Rosso but I realize it’s usually a bad idea to key on horses involved in a three horse blanket finish. But I think both were really just getting on track and better things can be expected on different days. It would be no surprise to see both of them win a Graded prep before Derby day.

I dropped both Asmussen horses after they just looked flat, in the case of Principe Guilherme it’s now twice in a row. I don’t think either are Derby horses.
thinair
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Fri Mar 02, 2018 5:55 pm

Given that Mask isn't running in the Derby, you can probably drop him from your top ten.
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