Derby Point Races 2018

stark
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Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:03 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:The way I judge speed is yards per second. I don’t take in account the run up as far as distance travel because each track the run up is different and the time starts after the run up and the distance to the wire is correct. I have two system in Excel one average out all the information on the past performs then using system one with no money, and system two with money these system average out the last three races.
Now the speed program average out 3 races at each call from ¼ mile to 1 1/8 mile. Then from 1 mile to 1 1/8 mile then it is added to 1 1/8 to take it out to 1 ¼ mile. You can tell by looking at the chart if a horse is speeding up or slowing down. You can tell if a horse is a closer.
Do you use something like Trakus data for ground loss?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:13 pm

Starnne

I am glad I found this forum it looks to be very clean and have seen no name calling or fighting. A lot of Forum if you go in and post your pick and tell why some people get pissed off because they can not stand to have some one who is better than they are (not saying I am better) but have had my moment as have most who look at horses. I have cashed a lot of IRS tickets in the past and a lot of straight tickets some have been posted on the internet. One time a paper in OKC did a two-page spread about me before the derby and a TV news channel pick up on it. They had me live on Friday before the derby at Remington park in front of a TV with a friend watching the Oaks where I made a comment which when out live on TV, “in a few minutes when Rags To Riches win the Oaks she will be back in 5 weeks and win the Belmont.” I also have had bad moments like last year Derby the week before the race had it picked straight when they drew post I dropped the horse who ran second so I ADD A NEW RULE PLAY A TICKED LIKE YOU HAVE THEM BEFORE POST DRAW.
BigDonOKC
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Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:26 pm

Curtis
/
Stark
No on Trakas I use the chart of last race. For me given up ground is simple he does not let horses get by him some call it heart
stark
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Wed Feb 07, 2018 2:57 pm

I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Wed Feb 07, 2018 7:45 pm

10 race at Tampa Bay 2-10-2018 10 point derby prep race.
Catholic Boy has 10 points does not give up ground has won 3 of 4 he has ran 1 mile in 18.5 yps ,1 1/16 mile in 18.7 yps but his last race was slow 17.7 yps but was not being push and was 4.75 on top
He is the only horse in this field other than Vino Rosso who ran his last race in 17.82

The question in this race is who is faster 1 or 3 #1 has a speed fig. of 87 where he ran second and #3 has a speed fig. of 84 and there time was about the same but these horses are not the same one is a winner.
BigDonOKC
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Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:04 pm

Hollywood star last race was slowraces before where not bad but has to improve to get on my list do not see in top two.
BigDonOKC
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Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:04 pm

Hollywood star last race was slowraces before where not bad but has to improve to get on my list do not see in top two.
stark
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Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:29 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:Hollywood star last race was slowraces before where not bad but has to improve to get on my list do not see in top two.
He scratched from the HolyBull to run in this spot. His last race that you reference was the G1 BreedersCup. That's a long way from the G3 Sam Davis. Obviously he didn't like the DelMar oval, just draw a line thru that race and he looks okay here in my opinion, 2nd favorite at 5/2 that I think will drift upwards, just like I think the 8/5 morning line on CatholicBoy will drift downwards.

?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
Posts: 288
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Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:49 pm

stark wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote:Hollywood star last race was slowraces before where not bad but has to improve to get on my list do not see in top two.
He scratched from the HolyBull to run in this spot. His last race that you reference was the G1 BreedersCup. That's a long way from the G3 Sam Davis. Obviously he didn't like the DelMar oval, just draw a line thru that race and he looks okay here in my opinion, 2nd favorite at 5/2 that I think will drift upwards, just like I think the 8/5 morning line on CatholicBoy will drift downwards.

?
You can forgive one race or should you?
Will a good horse bounce to drift down would be a bounce? :)
stark
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Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:00 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:
You can forgive one race or should you?
Yes, I can forgive a race and just draw a line thru it when all things are considered.

That race was against the best 2YOs in America on a surface he didn't like (he wasn't the only one who didn't like DelMar)

His trainer has done a good job picking this spot for his return off some very solid works including the 59 bullet on Jan 27.

He should naturally mature some from 2 to 3 so it's doubtful we've seen his best race yet.

I would need about 7/2 at post time to bet on him, especially if Catholic Boy is at an unbettable 6/5 or so.

My biggest concern is the lack of pace in the race, somebody could steal it if they get brave, this guy is another closer.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:29 pm

Tampa Bay race 10 3-10-1018
Some people will not play a horse because it is chalk, that what they say on other boards I for one say play to make money on every bet or not play at all. We all know you can’t win every race but yon can cut down on how much you lose.
#1 Navy Armed Guard is 15/1 Has never given up ground would bet a good show bet.
#2 Flameaway he is a on and off horse has a set running pattern and even at 8/1 would be a waste of money.
#3 Vino Rosso has won all his races and the time was not bad but not average he closed to win both races at 3/1 he could win this and he looks like the only horse who could run with Cath0llic BOY.
#4 Septimius Severus at 15/1 has never give up ground but has not gone the distance. His Blood line looks good to me will look it up if he runs good this weekend.
#5 Hollywood Star has never given ground and at 5/2 would not be a bad bet. His las race was not up to his stander so he need a race to get me on board.
#6 Catholic Boy at 8/5 will not pay much but a win is a win. His speed is 18.7 to 17.7 in last 3 races looks to be the one to beat.
#7 Vouch at 8/1 has given up ground but has not been out of the money. Not much to say on yhis one.
My pick is 3/6 with 3/6 with 1/7 with 1/7
BigDonOKC
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Sat Feb 10, 2018 1:23 pm

I don't know of a derby winner who came out of this race but do know of one horse that won this race and got in the money derby day. Bluegrass Cat. a long time ago.
BigDonOKC
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Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:00 pm

Vouch was scratched now a 6 horse race
stark
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Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:42 pm

Waay too many races across the country to wager on today, this one is a pass.

Wish PVal had a mount, he'd teach 'em a thing or two about pace makes the race!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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sweettalk
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Sat Feb 10, 2018 6:12 pm

Flameaway... he was my pick (but i don't bet, can't afford it under my circumstances). he's gutsy. i like that going forward.
Get out to Lenny’s for their big grand opening sale. Find eight government secrets and get a free kidnapping and personality reassignment so that you’ll forget you found them!
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Feb 10, 2018 6:17 pm

That was a brave win by Flameaway. The Scat Daddy colt might not have the perfect breeding for 10 furlongs, but he sure has the heart and will to win that you want in a Derby runner.
BigDonOKC
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Sat Feb 10, 2018 7:53 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:That was a brave win by Flameaway. The Scat Daddy colt might not have the perfect breeding for 10 furlongs, but he sure has the heart and will to win that you want in a Derby runner.


Has a derby winner ever ran at this track?
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:10 pm

Not sure that sort of thing matters anymore. It might matter that Flameaway isn't nominated for the Triple Crown races. :shock:
https://www.paulickreport.com/news/trip ... m-f-davis/
It will be interesting to see which surface he ends up preferring; the colt has won on pretty much everything. His ability to get more distance may be helped by the Fusaichi Pegasus blood from his dam.
Timely Writer
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Sat Feb 10, 2018 8:33 pm

Has a Derby winner ever come from this track?
Yes, last year Always Dreaming in addition to Super Saver and Street Sense in years past.
Way back when champion Slew O Gold finished 3rd in the Sam F Davis.
BigDonOKC
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Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:27 pm

Always Dreaming Tamp Bay race was a Maiden Special weight it was his third race and first of the year.
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