Derby Point Races 2018

Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby peeptoad » Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:00 pm

Kennedy wrote:Final

1. Audible (1)
2. Justify (2)
3. Mendelssohn (3)
4. Bolt D’Oro (4)
5. Vino Rosso (5)
6. Magnum Moon (6)
7. Good Magic (7)
8. Flameaway (8)
9. My Boy Jack (10)
10. Quip (9)

On the Radar: Combatant


Did you do the 2020 this year?
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby Kennedy » Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:16 pm

peeptoad wrote:
Kennedy wrote:Final

1. Audible (1)
2. Justify (2)
3. Mendelssohn (3)
4. Bolt D’Oro (4)
5. Vino Rosso (5)
6. Magnum Moon (6)
7. Good Magic (7)
8. Flameaway (8)
9. My Boy Jack (10)
10. Quip (9)

On the Radar: Combatant



Did you do the 2020 this year?


Working on it!

At this point I'm just waiting for BRIS to release the final pace figures for the ARK Derby and Lexington.

It seems likely that we'll have a record number of perfect qualifiers this year. From 1991 to the present there has never been more than 4 but this year it looks like there might be 5.

Audible
Good Magic
Justify
Magnum Moon
Mendelssohn
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby peeptoad » Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:23 pm

Kennedy wrote:
peeptoad wrote:
Kennedy wrote:Final

1. Audible (1)
2. Justify (2)
3. Mendelssohn (3)
4. Bolt D’Oro (4)
5. Vino Rosso (5)
6. Magnum Moon (6)
7. Good Magic (7)
8. Flameaway (8)
9. My Boy Jack (10)
10. Quip (9)

On the Radar: Combatant



Did you do the 2020 this year?


Working on it!

At this point I'm just waiting for BRIS to release the final pace figures for the ARK Derby and Lexington.

It seems likely that we'll have a record number of perfect qualifiers this year. From 1991 to the present there has never been more than 4 but this year it looks like there might be 5.

Audible
Good Magic
Justify
Magnum Moon
Mendelssohn

Excellent. I am very interested to see how the field shapes up this year on the 2020. If there is a record # of perfect qualifiers it wouldn't surprise me. Just subjectively this year's field seems strong, at least in relation to the last few years.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby honneerider » Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:27 pm

Eagerly awaiting Kennedy's 2020! Still miss the blog
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby peeptoad » Tue Apr 17, 2018 7:56 am

Kennedy wrote:At this point I'm just waiting for BRIS to release the final pace figures for the ARK Derby and Lexington.



https://www.scribd.com/document/376518262/Kentucky-Derby-2018-Past-Performances-April-16
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Tue Apr 17, 2018 9:20 am

what the 2020?
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby Kennedy » Tue Apr 17, 2018 10:10 am

BigDonOKC wrote:what the 2020?


Just my own little attempt to create a statistical profile to measure Derby winners against. The idea is that many Derby winners fit a certain profile and many contenders do not fit that profile.

Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't but I do find it enjoyable to work through.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby Treve » Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:11 pm

I always look forward to it, Kennedy.


In the mean time here is this week's Derby Dozen from Steve Haskin.
1. Vino Rosso
2. Good Magic
3. Justify
4. Bolt d'Oro
5. Magnum Moon
6. Audible
7. Mendelssohn
*
8. My Boy Jack
9. Quip
10. Flameaway
11. Noble Indy
12. Enticed
(13. Solomini)
* Nota Bene: he calls the top 7 the magnificent 7 and basically says that you could make a case to move up or move down any of these on this top 7, case in point he finds it incredibly frustrating to rank Audible at 6 when he ran the co-fastest thoro-graph in the US.
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky ... -farm.aspx

Time for me to work on my own list heh
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby Kennedy » Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:26 pm

Here is a brief explanation of all the factors involved in the 20-20 system and a bit of history on how each factor has played out in past runnings of the Derby. Hopefully you find this entertaining.

20-20 Breakdown for 2018

1. Must achieve Beyer as a 3yo that is equal to or superior to the average route prep winning fig


The aim of this factor is to identify the horses that have at some point run a race fast enough to win an average race against their peers.

Historical Performance: 26 years – 195-2-8-9 (Mine That Bird, Sea Hero)

This year the average winning Beyer is 95 so horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Bravazo, Firenze Fire, Flameaway, Free Drop Billy, Hofburg, Lone Sailor, My Boy Jack, Quip, Solomini

2. Last two Beyer figs achieved must exceed the average winning figure minus 6.

The goal of this factor is to weed out those horses who have not proven themselves to be up to the level required for more than just one race. 6 may seem like a magic number but it’s actually the average improvement level shown by a Derby winner from their last prep to the Derby.

Historical Performance: 26 years – 241-4-10-12 (Always Dreaming, Mine That Bird, Giacomo, Sea Hero)

This year the target figure is 184 over the last two races so horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Bravazo, Firenze Fire, Free Drop Billy, Hofburg, Lone Sailor, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, Solomini, Vino Rosso

3. Must be either first or second at the 1/8th pole in one of their 2 final preps

Shows that the entrant has the tactical speed to get themselves into the mix when it counts. Very few Derbies are won by horses who are not among the top 2 at the 1/8th pole.

Historical Performance: 26 years – 131-1-9-6 (Sea Hero)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Firenze Fire, Noble Indy, Solomini

4. The entrants last two preps must have been around two turns

Historical Performance: 26 years – 44-2-1-1 (Big Brown, Nyquist)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Gronkowski

5. Horses finish position must be no worse than position at the 1/8th pole in both final preps

Losing places in the stretch isn’t a good sign for a Derby winner. You want horses that aren’t getting passed by others late.

Historical Performance: 26 years – 142-3-10-8 (Super Saver, Mine That Bird, Silver Charm)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Bolt D’Oro, Bravazo, Free Drop Billy, Lone Sailor, My Boy Jack, Promises Fulfilled

6. Must have earned higher than field average BRIS Late Pace figure (LP) in last race

This factor used to simply be the raw closing fraction data as opposed to the late pace figure but since 1999 it has just been reliant on that BRIS LP figure. The ability to close fast in prep races is a prized weapon that bodes well for contenders stretching out to 10f for the first time.

Historical Performance: 26 years – 200-3-7-12 (Mine That Bird, Silver Charm, Go for Gin)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Bravazo, Enticed, Firenze Fire, Flameaway, Free Drop Billy, Noble Indy, Promises Fulfilled

7. Must have finished in the top 4 places in last prep

A simple way of checking form

Historical Performance: 26 years – 110-4-4-5 (Mine That Bird, Giacomo, Thunder Gulch, Sea Hero)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Bravazo, Firenze Fire, Promises Fulfilled

8. Must have finished in the top 3 in at least 2 races as a 3yo

Another way of checking consistency and form

Historical Performance: 26 years – 73-2-3-1 (Mine That Bird, Sea Hero)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Promises Fulfilled

9. Last Beyer cannot be worse than both of their last two (3yo races only)

You don’t want a horse whose form is going the wrong way.

Historical Performance: 26 years – 72-0-2-2

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Bravazo, My Boy Jack

10. Must be stakes winner of listed class or greater

It’s not very common for a horses first stakes win to be the Kentucky Derby

Historical Performance: 26 years – 97-1-6-4 (Giacomo)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Hofburg, Lone Sailor

11. BRIS LP figure must be higher/equal to their E1 or E2 pace figures in at least one route race as a 3yo

This one is a bit technical but basically it’s looking at whether or not a horse is always running their slowest at the end of races. Hopefully they are able to maintain some pace.

Historical Performance: 19 years – 35-0-1-2

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Enticed, Firenze Fire

12. Must have minumum of one stakes race @ 9f or more as a 3yo


Very few try without going 9f but none have ever succeeded.

Historical Performance: 26 years – 32-0-1-0

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Gronkowski

13. Must have exceeded the winning avg projected 10f time at least once in one of their last 2 preps

Again this one has a bit of math involved but take the fractions for each individual entrant in all their stakes preps and project their 10f time. Take the average of those projections and look for horses that earned a better than average projection

Historical Performance: 20 years – 87-2-3-1 (Animal Kingdom, War Emblem)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Firenze Fire

14. Highest Lifetime Beyer must be achieved in a two turn race

Historical Performance: 26 years – 33-1-1-1 (Nyquist)

This year the horses who failed to qualify for this factor are – Firenze Fire

15. Contender must have at least one Sire or Broodmare Sire AWD that is greater than 8.00

This factor is no longer used because the Chef-de-race website which supplied the data is no longer in operation and I have not found a data source or replacement factor that so accurately captures the breeding angle.

Historical Performance: 19 years – 41-1-1-1 (Nyquist)

No data was available for this year

Perfect Qualifiers
Audible
Good Magic
Justify
Magnum Moon
Mendelssohn

For anyone who cares you can see a handy reference chart for the 20-20 system throughout it's existence by clicking on the link below.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lfAtLlKipD_rs2BuhGx7XOpLKBm_dEvE9_990yP6kF0/edit?usp=sharing
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby Treve » Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:53 pm

Thank you so much Kennedy!

So basically, what I'm getting from this is... Firenze Fire is a toss :lol:
ETA: I find it interesting that last year saw 0 perfect starters vs this year which features 5 of them. A spicy Derby ahead!
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
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