Derby Point Races 2018

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Treve
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 3:19 pm

Stark, three horses will carry 122lb, Beautiful Shot, Magnum Moon and Quip. The others will carry 118lb. I guess that means that of all the prep winners, Mendelssohn will have carried the most weight (126lb in the UAE Derby)

I think Magnum Moon is a glorious specimen, and before the SA Derby if I had to pick one of the horses running against Apollo's curse, I liked him better than Justify for some of the reasons listed above.
The Arkansas Derby has become my favourite Derby prep in recent years and I'll be interested in seeing in particular how Solomini, MM and Combatant do. I think Magnum Moon could lose and still move forward. I think we might see a new Era in the Pletcher barn when he aims at having his horses peak on Derby day, more than for preps.
I'm also curious about Quip as I've not looked into him at all but I'm seeing him on a lot of Derby lists.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
katmandu
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 5:52 pm

Here's Quip galloping the same morning that MMM did:

https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/quip ... 11th-2018/
BigDonOKC
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Wed Apr 11, 2018 8:14 pm

with the last 2 point races out i see my boy jack winning the 9 race at keeneland he get 20 and get in where greyvitos would only have 30 if he won and it is possible he could not get in. more later in the week. 8-)
Horsebagger
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Thu Apr 12, 2018 9:00 am

BigDonOKC wrote:with the last 2 point races out i see my boy jack winning the 9 race at keeneland he get 20 and get in where greyvitos would only have 30 if he won and it is possible he could not get in. more later in the week. 8-)
So, the Greyvitos camp rushed their colt back to the Derby path so they can be what, 3-1 in a race they HAVE to win to even be a 'maybe' for the gate at Churchill?

I've liked this colt for a while (having an indirect interest in his success notwithstanding) but not thrilled with the chosen path that may ultimately suppress his overall career success. Good luck to the animal and i hope he can overcome his connections decisions.
hadrianmarcus
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Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:06 am

Greyvitos is being pointed toward the Preakness, not the Derby, from what I've read.
stark
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Thu Apr 12, 2018 10:44 am

ARCADIA, Calif. - The two-time stakes winner Greyvitos will have his 2018 debut in Saturday’s Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland, trainer Adam Kitchingman said Sunday.

Last week, Kitchingman considered starting Greyvitos in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at 1 1/8 miles at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, but has opted for the $200,000 Lexington Stakes, which is run at 1 1/16 miles.

“I’ll go in the softer spot and the shorter distance,” he said. “It’s been weighing on my mind pretty heavy in the last few days.”

The decision could keep Greyvitos from gaining sufficient qualifying points to earn a berth in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 5.

Through Sunday, Greyvitos had 10 qualifying points and was tied for 32nd in the rankings. The winner of the Lexington Stakes will receive 20 qualifying points. Even if Greyvitos wins the Lexington Stakes and has 30 points, the colt would not be certain of a berth in a race with a safety limit of 20 starters.

“The Preakness will be our back-up plan,” Kitchingham said.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Horsebagger
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Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:38 am

hadrianmarcus wrote:Greyvitos is being pointed toward the Preakness, not the Derby, from what I've read.
Likely an uninformed suggestion.

If/when he wins on Saturday, and he's eligible to make the gate and healthy, and then the connection decline the opportunity, I'll be back to concede and apologize to the connections for finally doing the right thing.

Not holding my breath.
Somnambulist
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Thu Apr 12, 2018 11:52 am

The Lexington was much better so close to the Derby. I like desperation to be much more... desperate.
"Life's no piece of cake, mind you, but the recipe's my own to fool with."
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Treve
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Thu Apr 12, 2018 2:34 pm

"The Preakness will be our back-up plan."

In twitter parlance, "I was shook" when I saw that both My Boy Jack and Greyvitos were entered in the Lexington. The latter has been working since February, and they didn't think it might be an idea to enter him in an allowance or something to get a race in him? Fortunately they chose the 'softer' spot.

Derby fever can be so ugly sometimes.
A filly named Ruffian...

Eine Stute namens Danedream...

Une pouliche se nommant Trêve...

Kincsem nevű kanca...


And a Queen named Beholder
BigDonOKC
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:47 am

Treve wrote:"The Preakness will be our back-up plan."

In twitter parlance, "I was shook" when I saw that both My Boy Jack and Greyvitos were entered in the Lexington. The latter has been working since February, and they didn't think it might be an idea to enter him in an allowance or something to get a race in him? Fortunately they chose the 'softer' spot.

Derby fever can be so ugly sometimes.
:D I am glad my Boy Jack is in he the only one in this race who could get point and get in.
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Ballerina
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:25 pm

stark
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 5:30 pm

Just because you have enough points doesn't mean you have to run. Is there anybody yet that's hinted they might not be ready for the 1 1/4 grind? There is no doubt in my mind that somebody will spike a fever a week out, so the bubble horses need to stay tuned.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:48 pm

play for the weekend
9th race keeneland
Ex 12 / 6 straight straight $2,00

11th Oaklawn park
ex, $10.00 straight 6-5
tri $10.00 straight 6-5-9
super $2.00 straight 6-5-9-8
Last edited by BigDonOKC on Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
stark
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 6:51 pm

BigDonOKC wrote: 10th Oakland
ex, $10.00 straight 3-7
tri $10.00 straight 3-7-10
super $4.00 straight 3-7-10-4
Golden Gate?
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
Spahny
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 7:02 pm

stark wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote: 10th Oakland
ex, $10.00 straight 3-7
tri $10.00 straight 3-7-10
super $4.00 straight 3-7-10-4
Golden Gate?
Oaklawn.
BigDonOKC
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Fri Apr 13, 2018 9:43 pm

Spahny wrote:
stark wrote:
BigDonOKC wrote: 10th Oakland
ex, $10.00 straight 3-7
tri $10.00 straight 3-7-10
super $4.00 straight 3-7-10-4
Golden Gate?
Oaklawn.
sorry been driven in that smoke- we got one hell of a fire here in oklahoma and 37104 is wrong 6598 is right
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Apr 14, 2018 8:09 pm

TVG just went over the Derby points list and also relayed some very recent news that Sunland Derby winner Runaway Ghost was just diagnosed with a hairline fracture and will probably miss the Derby. That puts Combatant into the field.
FOUR Scat Daddy's will be running for the Roses.
stark
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Sun Apr 15, 2018 12:15 pm

Jay Privman
‏@DRFPrivman

Winning Beyer Speed Figures from the final two Ky Derby preps yesterday:

Magnum Moon, Arkansas Derby, 98

My Boy Jack, Lexington, 90
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Ballerina
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Sun Apr 15, 2018 4:09 pm

Updated BSF's, and yes, I know, some of you don't pay attention to them.

http://www1.drf.com/drfLeaderBoard.do?category=beyer
Kennedy
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Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:19 am

Final

1. Audible (1)
2. Justify (2)
3. Mendelssohn (3)
4. Bolt D’Oro (4)
5. Vino Rosso (5)
6. Magnum Moon (6)
7. Good Magic (7)
8. Flameaway (8)
9. My Boy Jack (10)
10. Quip (9)

On the Radar: Combatant

Basically no changes from my ranking last week except to switch My Boy Jack and Quip. Quip ran well enough in a race where he was clearly not as good as the winner but also the winner controlled the pace to such an extent that it was always going to prove to be impossible to pass him. I like that Quip held off the rest of them and showed good tenacity but I he’s a bit behind the top ones from this crop at talent level.

My Boy Jack is a kind of blue collar horse that I actually really like. I still think he needs the right kind of setup and likely some off going to make up the differential of talent between he and the top horses. I think he’s a bit of a hanger along with being a closer. Some might be down on his Lexington but I actually saw that as a race that was hard to win from off the pace and was somewhat impressed that he got it done.
Magnum Moon was the best horse in the Arkansas Derby but I am still a bit skeptical of his chances because of the space I would expect him to occupy. The Ark Derby was a really easy race all things considered and he was allowed to settle, slow down and then just completely outclass his rivals. It’s not bad for a prep but this didn’t show anything really about his ability. My concern from a Derby perspective is that he is likely to be targeting the “pressing” space which is generally crowded. He’ll have traffic concerns potentially but he’ll also be chasing Justify. Not sure if he has enough to run that one down.

I continue not to be impressed with Solomini but I would actually be open to using him on the bottom of tickets. He always finds a way to make it into the mix. My concern is that he’s not that good and he’s not improving. He might also have a passing issue.

A horse I would definitely want to consider in some way if he drew in is Combatant. If you like comparison plays this horse is basically Giacomo. The right setup in the Derby could play into his hands but I think he’d need a sharp pace.
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