Derby Point Races 2018

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BigDonOKC
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Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:24 am

February 3,2018, point races

It time to find a derby winner or at less start looking for one and the three races this weekend might be a good place to start. The Holy Bull is a race that has a good derby prospect Free Drop Billy that is if you can overlook his last race where he ran 9th. if not Enticed should be your pick. Then there is Aqueduct 8 race the Withers with the top prospect Firenze Fire that has given up ground one race back, who could find it hard to beat who has never ran past 6.5F California Night who is looking to run out to 1 1/8 mile and Avery Island looking to improve. Santa Anita also has a point race and 3 horses have a combined total of 3 points. Peace should be the one to beat with Pepe Ono and Inscom given it one hell oh a try.

Question to be answered this weekend:
(1) Should you over look a bad race?
(2) Should you play a horse who is going from 6.5 to 1 1/16mile?
(3) Should you play a horse who gives up ground?
(4) Should I play any of these horses?
BigDonOKC
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Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:47 am

Firenze Fire just got a break California Night is not a live runner.
:D :D
stark
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Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:15 pm

In Santa Anita's 5th race named in the honor of the late great BobnBeverly Lewis, Peace by Violence from Papa Mandella should take a majority of the wagering dollars, reports are he looks like a million bucks. But I'll be looking at the other Violence offspring down on the rail for the Desormeaux brothers. Kent gets back on and he's getting blinkers added today, returning to real dirt after a synthetic race up north and a grass try here Ayacara is listed at a juicy 8/1 on the morning line in what will be the 3rd race off the layoff, often a horse's best effort. While he couldn't catch the Bolt in the Frontrunner back in September (how hard was Kent trying to make his final time look good while running 4th in a stretched out field ;) ) he should be a better sort now and he will be closing in the stretch against these unproven sorts today who have just broke their maidens or in the case of the Baffert/Juddmonte and O'Neill/Reddam entries, they haven't even done that yet, beware!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Curtis
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Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:36 pm

I remember back in the mid-80’s, Charlie Whittingham trained two horses, full brothers if memory serves, for Tom Gentry. One named War and the other Peace. Both were nice horses. Peace was a fairly accomplished turf miler. Now back to 2018.
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:55 pm

Pretty impressive win by Avery Island in the Withers. He looks like one that can go on toward the Derby.
Not sure what to make of Lombo's win in the Robert Lewis. Is he a sprinter who was able to stretch his speed because he was able to get to the front and dictate? Or is this Graydar colt a real Derby horse?
tcw
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Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:01 pm

Audible was awesome in winning the Holy Bull S., crossing the wire in what appeared to be an excellent time and winning by some 5 lengths.
BaroqueAgain1
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Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:07 pm

Audible just ran away from the more-favored colts in the Holy Bull. That's the second impressive win by an Into Mischief 3yo today, following a very good win by Curly's Rocket in the 2nd at Santa Anita, a 6-furlong MSW.
CR is a massive, 1,300-lb. Baffert runner who will probably be running longer and in a stakes his next out.
middleground
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Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:21 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Audible just ran away from the more-favored colts in the Holy Bull. That's the second impressive win by an Into Mischief 3yo today,

Into Mischief out of a Gilded Time mare doesn't scream distance, but the horse has closed very nicely in every one of his races.
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Diver52
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Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:30 pm

In the Curly's Rocket race, his stablemate firster Once on Whiskey (you know that's a Pegram horse, right) was WAY back early then began to close about the half mile pole, making up five lengths between the stretch call and the finish to be second. He'll either win at 4/5 next time out or never be heard from again. (Bodemeister x a Mineshaft mare.)
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
stark
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Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:45 pm

Andy Serling
‏@andyserling

Firenze Fire ran a credible race, and is a very good horse, but given his trip and the race dynamics, he should have finished better. At the end of the day he is likely best up to one mile, particularly around one turn.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
stark
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Sun Feb 04, 2018 1:03 pm

Beyer Speed Ratings.....

Holy Bull 99
Withers 87
Bob Lewis 86
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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bare it all
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Sun Feb 04, 2018 2:48 pm

Not impressed by any of these. Speed breeding in the lot. The Holy Bull winner was the best looking but he is a Pletcher in Florida and I’m always suspect of those, Always Dreaming be damned lol
tcw
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Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:24 pm

Agree with others regarding Audible's pedigree with respect to distance, however, on the plus-side he went the 4th quarter in 23 and 4 and closed the final 1/16th in 6 seconds flat, which is very good. His 99 BSF was also by far the best of the 3 races (make that 4 races counting the Swale S.) and it's encouraging that he was able to sit just off of the early pace. He also appeared to switch leads back and forth as he crossed the wire but having just 3 races under his belt, perhaps it can be chalked up to being a bit green. Definitely one to watch going forward.
BaroqueAgain1
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Sun Feb 04, 2018 3:44 pm

The Withers winner, Avery Island, is by Street Sense out of an A.P. Indy mare. Not sure I would call that 'speed breeding.' :P 8-)
BigDonOKC
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Sun Feb 04, 2018 4:14 pm

The 3-3-2018 races for derby point.
Gulfstream Park the Holy BULL RACE 12 outcome was a two-horse race with Audible proving he was the best of the field. Audible past the field at the ¾ pole and cleared them by 51/2. Some people will talk him up and think he could win the derby. IF they think .01.92 over the track record is fast then they could be right after all it was listed as a fast track and no one ran are push him after the ¾ pole. Free Drop Billy ran second and now has 14 points for the derby but did not make my derby list were Audible has made my top 12 list.
Aqueduct race 8 the Withers was a very slow race and the great Firenze Fire let a horse run past him at the wire but he did get 4 points out of the race and set up his pattern for the next 3 races. I say he will win the next race, run second the one after that and then win his 3rd race out but that just if you believe in patterns. Avery Island now has 14 points and a slow time, he still has not made my list.
The last point race was Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita Race. They say the track was fast the first two call were fast but after that it was very slow. Lombo wired the field but still do to him given up ground he is not on my Derby list.
I like talking horse and at the young age of 71 I have seen more racing than most of people on most of the horse racing foams. You can always learn something if you ask question and I do ask question even at my age I am still learning things. So what it comes down if the people on this site would like to talk horses I am willing to tell the patterns I see in upcoming races.
middleground
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Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:20 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:The 3-3-2018 races for derby point.
Gulfstream Park the Holy BULL RACE 12 outcome was a two-horse race with Audible proving he was the best of the field. Audible past the field at the ¾ pole and cleared them by 51/2. Some people will talk him up and think he could win the derby. IF they think .01.92 over the track record is fast then they could be right after all it was listed as a fast track and no one ran are push him after the ¾ pole. Free Drop Billy ran second and now has 14 points for the derby but did not make my derby list were Audible has made my top 12 list.
Aqueduct race 8 the Withers was a very slow race and the great Firenze Fire let a horse run past him at the wire but he did get 4 points out of the race and set up his pattern for the next 3 races. I say he will win the next race, run second the one after that and then win his 3rd race out but that just if you believe in patterns. Avery Island now has 14 points and a slow time, he still has not made my list.
The last point race was Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita Race. They say the track was fast the first two call were fast but after that it was very slow. Lombo wired the field but still do to him given up ground he is not on my Derby list.
I like talking horse and at the young age of 71 I have seen more racing than most of people on most of the horse racing foams. You can always learn something if you ask question and I do ask question even at my age I am still learning things. So what it comes down if the people on this site would like to talk horses I am willing to tell the patterns I see in upcoming races.
Welcome to the board. I look forward to your comments.
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bare it all
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Mon Feb 05, 2018 9:48 am

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:The Withers winner, Avery Island, is by Street Sense out of an A.P. Indy mare. Not sure I would call that 'speed breeding.' :P 8-)
It'll likely prove out incorrect, but I think the Street Sense want about a mile and that's it. Maybe putting him over the AP Indy mare gets you more, but I don't see him as much +stam even if he did win the Derby. Looking at the mare, she didn't race until 3 and then ran 2 winning races before hitting the shed, one of those a 1 1/8 allowance, so maybe she will add something. The sub-90 beyer he got doesn't inspire me nor does his career being only at AQU.

Reminds me of last year's J Boys Echo.
BigDonOKC
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Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:00 am

you look at Beyer :lol: :lol: :lol: they haven not been worth or work in years. When they give a HORSE a 80 for a mile at the same time as another Horse who get a 90 make for a bad way to look at speed.

I Developed a program that looks at the speed in yards per second at each call out to 1 1/8 mile then it will project the horse in yard per second out to 1 1/4 mile, The average horse runs 18.33 yards per second.
stark
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Mon Feb 05, 2018 1:15 pm

BigDonOKC wrote:you look at Beyer :lol: :lol: :lol: they haven not been worth or work in years. When they give a HORSE a 80 for a mile at the same time as another Horse who get a 90 make for a bad way to look at speed.

I Developed a program that looks at the speed in yards per second at each call out to 1 1/8 mile then it will project the horse in yard per second out to 1 1/4 mile, The average horse runs 18.33 yards per second.
Don,
Just curious, do you sell your information/picks?
I know sharpies like Ragozin and Thorograph have come up with a different criteria system from Beyer and they are quite successful too.

p.s. Welcome to the forum!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
BigDonOKC
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Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:37 pm

Stark I do not write a tip sheet, I tell those who e mail me and some time in the past on some site what I am playing just like I am playing them. The Derby speed chart has give me the winner of the derby for several years and the top 4 going 6 deep for a lot of years. The problem on other forms was a lot of people would get upset if my pick was right they never ask why I picked the way I did. Two years ago I posted my Pick for the Derby a $20.00 ex, tri and super when it came in as I called it they said it was caulk does that matter if it is a winner. When people say they can not play a horse because he is caulk so they will play a horse who will pay big. I would say play the winner.
But back to the question I only run the derby speed chart on the derby, and would be more than glad to post it for you.
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