Derby Point Races 2018

Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:24 am

February 3,2018, point races

It time to find a derby winner or at less start looking for one and the three races this weekend might be a good place to start. The Holy Bull is a race that has a good derby prospect Free Drop Billy that is if you can overlook his last race where he ran 9th. if not Enticed should be your pick. Then there is Aqueduct 8 race the Withers with the top prospect Firenze Fire that has given up ground one race back, who could find it hard to beat who has never ran past 6.5F California Night who is looking to run out to 1 1/8 mile and Avery Island looking to improve. Santa Anita also has a point race and 3 horses have a combined total of 3 points. Peace should be the one to beat with Pepe Ono and Inscom given it one hell oh a try.

Question to be answered this weekend:
(1) Should you over look a bad race?
(2) Should you play a horse who is going from 6.5 to 1 1/16mile?
(3) Should you play a horse who gives up ground?
(4) Should I play any of these horses?
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BigDonOKC » Sat Feb 03, 2018 11:47 am

Firenze Fire just got a break California Night is not a live runner.
:D :D
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby stark » Sat Feb 03, 2018 12:15 pm

In Santa Anita's 5th race named in the honor of the late great BobnBeverly Lewis, Peace by Violence from Papa Mandella should take a majority of the wagering dollars, reports are he looks like a million bucks. But I'll be looking at the other Violence offspring down on the rail for the Desormeaux brothers. Kent gets back on and he's getting blinkers added today, returning to real dirt after a synthetic race up north and a grass try here Ayacara is listed at a juicy 8/1 on the morning line in what will be the 3rd race off the layoff, often a horse's best effort. While he couldn't catch the Bolt in the Frontrunner back in September (how hard was Kent trying to make his final time look good while running 4th in a stretched out field ;) ) he should be a better sort now and he will be closing in the stretch against these unproven sorts today who have just broke their maidens or in the case of the Baffert/Juddmonte and O'Neill/Reddam entries, they haven't even done that yet, beware!
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby Curtis » Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:36 pm

I remember back in the mid-80’s, Charlie Whittingham trained two horses, full brothers if memory serves, for Tom Gentry. One named War and the other Peace. Both were nice horses. Peace was a fairly accomplished turf miler. Now back to 2018.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BaroqueAgain1 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 6:55 pm

Pretty impressive win by Avery Island in the Withers. He looks like one that can go on toward the Derby.
Not sure what to make of Lombo's win in the Robert Lewis. Is he a sprinter who was able to stretch his speed because he was able to get to the front and dictate? Or is this Graydar colt a real Derby horse?
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby tcw » Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:01 pm

Audible was awesome in winning the Holy Bull S., crossing the wire in what appeared to be an excellent time and winning by some 5 lengths.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby BaroqueAgain1 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:07 pm

Audible just ran away from the more-favored colts in the Holy Bull. That's the second impressive win by an Into Mischief 3yo today, following a very good win by Curly's Rocket in the 2nd at Santa Anita, a 6-furlong MSW.
CR is a massive, 1,300-lb. Baffert runner who will probably be running longer and in a stakes his next out.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby middleground » Sat Feb 03, 2018 8:21 pm

BaroqueAgain1 wrote:Audible just ran away from the more-favored colts in the Holy Bull. That's the second impressive win by an Into Mischief 3yo today,



Into Mischief out of a Gilded Time mare doesn't scream distance, but the horse has closed very nicely in every one of his races.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby Diver52 » Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:30 pm

In the Curly's Rocket race, his stablemate firster Once on Whiskey (you know that's a Pegram horse, right) was WAY back early then began to close about the half mile pole, making up five lengths between the stretch call and the finish to be second. He'll either win at 4/5 next time out or never be heard from again. (Bodemeister x a Mineshaft mare.)
I ran marathons. I saw the Taj Mahal by Moonlight. I drove Highway 1 in a convertible. I petted Zenyatta.
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Re: Derby Point Races 2018

Postby stark » Sat Feb 03, 2018 10:45 pm

Andy Serling
‏@andyserling

Firenze Fire ran a credible race, and is a very good horse, but given his trip and the race dynamics, he should have finished better. At the end of the day he is likely best up to one mile, particularly around one turn.
I've found it easier to tear up tickets at 8/1 instead of 8/5.
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