2018 Kentucky Derby News & Notes

[Treve]

I knew the points system was the main motivator.
Mendelssohn better put on his running shoes tomorrow.

[peeptoad]

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby- ... -standings

[PJMIII]

Seeing Some Value Going Against My Boy Jack

Top stakes on tap Saturday from Oaklawn Park and Keeneland Race Course.

https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing ... y-boy-jack

[Sparrow Castle]

He was 13th on the Derby list last I checked.

Jeremy Balan Verified account @BH_JBalan
3m3 minutes ago
Sunland Derby winner Runaway Ghost will not run in the Kentucky Derby, according to trainer Todd Fincher. Fincher is "98%" sure he has a hairline fracture in his shin. Came out of work today at Sunland sore.

Fincher: "Bad news is we're missing the big dance. Good news is there'll be no surgery and he's going to be fine."

[Sparrow Castle]

Nope, 16th.

https://www.kentuckyderby.com/uploads/w ... rboard.pdf

[BaroqueAgain1]

Thanks for the updated points list. I had thought that, with Runaway Ghost's defection, that Combatant would move into 20th. Nope, still just outside the bubble in 21st. Oops.

[Tessablue]

So Hofburg is officially in, I was a little worried going into today. Wonder what choice Mott will make. Edited to say that according to this, he's running: https://www.horseracingnation.com/news/ ... ubble_123#

Worth noting that the horse he beat in his maiden, Just Whistle, won nicely at Keeneland today.

[stark]

From DRF....

Irad Ortiz Jr., the nation’s leading rider in wins thus far in 2018, will ride Florida Derby runner-up Hofburg in the Kentucky Derby, according to his agent, Steve Rushing.

Ortiz Jr. replaces his brother Jose, who is committed to ride Good Magic, the champion 2-year-old of 2017 and recent Blue Grass Stakes winner, in the Kentucky Derby. Jose Ortiz was aboard Hofburg for his second-place finish to Audible in the Florida Derby.

Ortiz probably had a chance at several mounts for the Derby including Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy, Promises Fulfilled _ whom Ortiz rode to victory in the Fountain of Youth _ and Free Drop Billy, whom Ortiz rode in the Blue Grass. Ortiz had also ridden Firenze Fire to victory in the Grade 1 Champagne last year. The aforementioned quartet did not have confirmed riders as of Sunday.

[Sparrow Castle]

Solomini to train in CA next two weeks before Ky Derby; two Derby works slotted for Justify

Solomini, third in the Arkansas Derby on Saturday, is scheduled to fly back to California on Monday and will train over the next two weeks at Santa Anita before a scheduled start in the Kentucky Derby on May 5, trainer Bob Baffert said Sunday.

Baffert said Solomini likely would fly to Kentucky either on April 28 -- one week before the Derby -- or April 30.

As for Justify, the unbeaten winner of the Santa Anita Derby and current favorite for the Kentucky Derby, he is scheduled to have two works prior to the Derby, the first of them slotted for later this week at Santa Anita, Baffert said.

http://live.drf.com/nuggets/41928-solom ... or-justify

[PJMIII]

First look at horses on the bubble for 2018 Kentucky Derby

Now that the Kentucky Derby (G1) scoring races are over, and all the points have been tabulated, the field has crystallized. We now know the top 19 on the final leaderboard plus the European Road invitee (Gronkowski), making for the capacity field of 20. Thus we also know those contenders just shy of the threshold – the “bubble horses” – on watch for defections.

http://www.brisnet.com/content/2018/04/ ... cky-derby/

[peeptoad]

Quip is not confirmed for the Derby per the connections... seems like they are mulling other options for him: http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/ma ... for-derby/

[Sparrow Castle]

‘Gronk’ on Track for KY Derby

Listed Burradon S. hero Gronkowski (Lonhro {Aus}) has punched his ticket for the May 5 GI Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, and will travel Stateside on Apr. 28, trainer Jeremy Noseda revealed. The Phoenix Thoroughbred runner has won his last four starts, and earned 50 points on the “European Road to the Kentucky Derby”. Successful in the Mar. 7 “Road to the Kentucky Derby” Conditions S., good for 20 Derby points, his margin of victory was 1 1/4 lengths in the Mar. 30 Burradon, worth another 30 points to the winner.

“I am delighted with him,” Noseda told Tattersalls. “He’s a lovely straight forward horse to deal with and everything is very much on schedule with our preparation. He leaves for America in two weeks, on Apr. 28, and by the time he leaves quarantine and starts training, it will be Tuesday morning. That’s the plan and I think it is the perfect timing for his arrival. It’s just getting him happy, fit and healthy, and then we have to find out if he goes on dirt or not. I’m pretty confident he’ll handle it well. They either do or they don’t, no matter how much you train them.”

http://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/gr ... -ky-derby/

[stark]

David Grening
‏@DRFGrening

Paco Lopez will ride Firenze Fire in the Kentucky Derby. It will be Paco's first Derby mount.

[stark]

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploa ... Points.pdf

[PJMIII]

Kentucky Derby Media Poll: Led By Justify, Seven Contenders Get First-Place Votes

With final Kentucky Derby preps completed over the weekend, a clear picture of who will run in the May 5 race at Churchill Downs formed. As for who will win it, however, there's no consensus.

Seven contenders received No. 1 votes in Monday's edition of the 2018 Kentucky Derby Media Poll assembled by HorseRacingNation.com, with the rankings led by unbeaten Santa Anita Derby winner Justify for a second straight week.

https://www.paulickreport.com/news/trip ... ace-votes/

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[Ballerina]

Post Position Draw winning history

From Leila Elliott's FB page

Curious about what are the best posts to draw in the Kentucky Derby? Let's take a look at some post position statistics!

#1 — 8 winners

Ferdinand (1986); Chateaugay (1963); Needles (1956); Hill Gail (1952); Citation (1948); Gallahadion (1940); Lawrin (1938); War Admiral (1937)

#2 — 7 winners

Affirmed (1978); Bold Forbes (1976); Cannonade (1974); Dust Commander (1970); Tim Tam (1958); Pon der (1949) Assault (1946).

#3 — 5 winners

Real Quiet (1998); Alysheba (1987) Spectacular Bid (1979); Foolish Pleasure (1975); Shut Out (1942).

#4 — 5 winners

Super Saver (2010); Seattle Slew (1977); Decidedly (1962); Pensive (1944); Whirlaway (1941).

#5 — 10 winners

California Chrome (2014), Funny Cide (2003); War Emblem (2002); Silver Charm (1997); Strike the Gold (1991); Count Fleet (1943); Johnstown (1939); Bold Venture (1936); Twenty Grand (1931); Always Dreaming (2017).

#6 — 2 winners

Sea Hero (1993); Iron Liege (1957).

#7 — 6 winners

Street Sense (2007); Pleasant Colony (1981); Proud Clarion (1967); Northern Dancer (1964); Determine (1954); Gallant Fox (1930).

#8 — 8 winners

Mine That Bird (2009); Barbaro (2006); Go for Gin (1994); Unbridled (1990); Majestic Prince (1969); Lucky Debonair (1965); Swaps (1955); Cavalcade (1934).

#9 — 4 winners

Riva Ridge (1972); Venetian Way (1960); Tomy Lee (1959); Count Turf (1951).

#10 — 9 winners

Giacomo (2005); Lil E. Tee (1992); Sunday Silence (1989); Spend a Buck (1985); Sunny’s Halo (1983); Genuine Risk (1980); Secretariat (1973); Dark Star (1953); Omaha (1935).

#11 — 2 winners

Winning Colors (1988); Brokers Tip (1933).

#12 — 3 winners

Canonero II (1971); Kauai King (1966); Hoop Jr. (1945)

#13 — 5 winners

Nyquist (2016); Smarty Jones (2004); Forward Pass (1968); Jet Pilot (1947); Burgoo King (1932).

#14 — 2 winners

Carry Back (1961); Middleground (1950).

#15 — 3 winners

Fusaichi Pegasus (2000); Grindstone (1996); Swale (1984)

#16 — 5 winners

Orb (2013), Animal Kingdom (2011); Monarchos (2001); Charismatic (1999); Thunder Gulch (1995).

#17 — 0 winners

#18 — 2 winners

American Pharoah (2015); Gato Del Sol (1982).

#19 — 1 winner

I’ll Have Another (2012).

#20 — 1 winner

Big Brown (2008).

Interesting notes:

It is not just history that tells us that #5, #10, #1, and #8 are the best positions--it is the math and science behind the trips that each horse will likely receive from each gate. Each post places each horse at a certain advantage or disadvantage automatically. Upon breaking, every horse needs to be on or near the rail. Breaking in a gate such as #5 allows a horse a cleaner trip with no swinging out to get in a good stalking or leading position, while outside posts run more of a risk of bumping or getting a poor place amongst the pack.

The raw reasoning is that #5, #10, #1, and #8 are the bare minimum best places to break from. #5 is the only Kentucky Derby post position to have had a double-digit amount of winners exit from it in the past. (10) It is the prime place to be. Only twenty-four horses in total have won exiting a gate farther outside than post #10, and no horse has ever won from post position #17.

Some interesting information to help you with your picks following the post position draw on May 1st!

[Curtis]

For me to even consider a horse drawn on the rail, it would have to be a complete and utter standout that just looks to tower over everything else. The most recent horse I can think of like that was Big Brown—who could have broke from behind the gate pointing the other way. Chrome was pretty dominant over what was a relatively weak field so I may have broken my moratorium for him. I don’t see a standout this year. I do think Justify has the highest ceiling but I don’t think he’s there yet.

[stark]

With regards to the prior success of drawing the rail, I think it's important to note the field size as well.

Just off the top of me head, the ones I can remember when the #1 won.....

1986..16 starters
1963...9 starters
1956..17 starters
1952..16 starters
1948...6 starters
1940...8 starters
1938..10 starters
1937..20 starters

Safe to say that had all the fields contained today's standard of 20 entries, it's a pretty good guess that #1 might not have enjoyed the success that it did.

Post #5 has similar notations, field sizes of 8, 10, 12, 14 are part of their winning history!

[Spahny]

For mid pack type horses the inside draw is a problem for me. They will be down inside of the crush heading into the first turn and likely to get boxed and bumped around. See Danza from 2014. It can be a real mess in there and there's not much the jock can do once they start trying to crowd in going into the first turn.

I played Arch Arch Arch in whatever year that was and he drew the rail. A closer is just going to drop back on the rail anyway so I don't see a huge problem. That horse broke his leg at the beginning of the race so it didn't work out but it wasn't the rail draw that caused the problem.

If your horse has good speed he can get position up front early then he won't even see 80 percent of the field going into the first turn. But if he's not a good gate horse, well then...

I guess if My Boy Jack draws the rail that's ok with me. But if Bolt d'Oro does then maybe I toss him. He is more of a mid pack type and has also had some problems breaking well from the gate. Also inexperienced runners like Justify or Magnum might not be well served drawing 1-4 post.

It also matters to me if a couple of the speed horses draw next to each other inside. They will probably be ridden out of the gate and then there's an increased chance you get that 45 opening half that everyone seems to always expect in the Derby but hasn't been happening of late.

The Derby draw matters of course. With the number of good contenders this year it may be even more important than usual.

[Curtis]

For mid pack type horses the inside draw is a problem for me. They will be down inside of the crush heading into the first turn and likely to get boxed and bumped around. See Danza from 2014. It can be a real mess in there and there's not much the jock can do once they start trying to crowd in going into the first turn.

I played Arch Arch Arch in whatever year that was and he drew the rail. A closer is just going to drop back on the rail anyway so I don't see a huge problem. That horse broke his leg at the beginning of the race so it didn't work out but it wasn't the rail draw that caused the problem.

If your horse has good speed he can get position up front early then he won't even see 80 percent of the field going into the first turn. But if he's not a good gate horse, well then...

I guess if My Boy Jack draws the rail that's ok with me. But if Bolt d'Oro does then maybe I toss him. He is more of a mid pack type and has also had some problems breaking well from the gate. Also inexperienced runners like Justify or Magnum might not be well served drawing 1-4 post.

It also matters to me if a couple of the speed horses draw next to each other inside. They will probably be ridden out of the gate and then there's an increased chance you get that 45 opening half that everyone seems to always expect in the Derby but hasn't been happening of late.e

The Derby draw matters of course. With the number of good contenders this year it may be even more important than usual.

I agree with this. It just isn’t very often a true win contender is a deep closer. If you or anyone else likes My Boy Jack for the win, the rail wouldn’t scare me off. Now, for me, the two main knocks against him are I’m not sure he’s fast enough and that, because of the point system, Desormeaux had to change the way he wanted to prep his horse. If the draw looks like it could compromise some of the main contenders, My Boy Jack isn’t the worse stab in the world.

There were two horses I really liked over the years whose trips I think were really compromised by drawing the rail, Agitate in that 23 horse stampede in 1974 and Lookin at Lucky in 2010. It’s interesting to note however that the ‘74 winner, Cannonade, drew the two hole but Cordero was able to keep him out of trouble to a reasonable degree. I think it’s worth noting, as did Stark above, that there have been two winners from the rail in the last fifty-five runnings. Both horses were deep closers and one was in a nine horse field. The other, Ferdinand, was my Derby horse from the time I laid eyes on him as a two-year-old at Del Mar in 1985. Then I noticed he was in the Whittingham barn and figured he’d never even go. When Charlie took him I knew he had a big shot because he wasn’t in it for Brown and a Julep. Knowing Ferdinand was going to be coming from the clouds, the rail didn’t bother me and I’m pretty sure that’s the last time it didn’t. Having Shoe didn’t hurt either.